Journal Take 2 - Chart Patterns

[natureboy]

I'm short USDCAD at 0.9806



Stop loss at 0.9809

 

[natureboy]

Strength meter confirming short trade USDCAD.. lags terribly.. but in a way can provide leading indication too. Any confirmation by definition is lagging.. or concurrent

It can lead by relative position of the currency lines - a high line may be more apt to turn down than continue

 

[natureboy]

If stopped out, i'll re-enter 1 more time on this hourly pattern.

 

[natureboy]

USDCAD has prior support at 0.9782.. friggin support levels today. first the euro, now this..

I may take profits there.. my trailing exit says stay in until trailed out, unless i have a swing ratio target. let me check that.. typically i'd have all this done already..

 

[natureboy]

..if USDCAD gets down there. Stay humble. Huge forces we're playing with here

 

[natureboy]

Yeah, i'm aiming to exit 0.9780. Still can give about 5:1 for the trade. There's hourly trendline support, prior support.. could be broken - i can re-enter if it breaks through.. the chance for a bounce... why not take profits?

 

[natureboy]

2m Trend reversal given - no longer bearish on 2m. 5m still bearish at 0.9806

 

[natureboy]

Out of USDCAD at 0.9780.. could still go lower, i'm happy taking profits.

Peace All - i think i'm off for the day

 

[natureboy]

One more thing. Rather large W10 on the EURUSD. man, i wasn't even trying to trade the bull run today! Just looking for other things. That's the problem with having a bias - i've been looking for EURUSD to get down to 1.2795 (which may, may not happen, of course).

For now, there is a W10, similar to a Butterfly, on the chart. I'm not trading it today, as my personal life needs me. However, there is a time target at noon EST. A trend back down may start near then, may not. Following through similar retracement logic as i've detailed in this thread should help to manage the risk on it if anyone wants to work with that one.

Peace and Profits

 

[wackypete2]

these patterns happen all the time. Maybe for some, they wouldn't want to skip trades. I feel a little more cautious than i used to. it can be so easy to lose money, and i'd rather lose opportunity. there's always another trade....

Well said

Quite the journal by the way.
Lot of range trading in the currencies in recent times. I like to play false breakouts and fade some patterns during these periods.

Peter

 

[natureboy]

Well said

Grazie - perennial market wisdom, passed down by the elders. Keeping the good trading principles up front in the mind helps me.. Good to hit refresh with the basic truths, and to think about them

Quite the journal by the way.

Why do you say that?

I want to drum up some interest in these indicators, figured this was a good way to do it. And i have a view on 'everyone starting to trade' a particular way... i think in this case it reinforces the price action expected. Notice how when it comes to Fibonacci retracements, people say 'oh those work b/c everyone knows about them', yet the same people might be the ones saying 'when everyone starts trading a system, the system is doomed' ... does that make any sense? Not to me.. More money selling or buying at a price, the more effect on price action, generally. People will have different exits anyhow.

Lot of range trading in the currencies in recent times. I like to play false breakouts and fade some patterns during these periods.

Truth! - Volatility has made it way more challenging for the type of approach i like to use - trend style - sometimes even on small timeframes i'd still be building a position right up to when the market reversed its little trend, hit the trailing stop +/- 0.25R.. lousy. Definitely better to be aware of the Big Picture and adjust trading style.

What patterns do you fade? Triangles? Or bar/candle type? You do mean chart patterns, right? B/c of course that's the whole other area of Objective Pattern study is statistically-discovered, multivariable patterns. That can be great for the probability backdrop in which to use these M&W/ABCD Swing Patterns.

I appreciate the feedback Peter,
Good Trading, and may you find a duffle bag full of money on the sidewalk,
(really though, spot me some if you do)

Michael Gould

 

[natureboy]

Buddy of mine is saying Long GBPUSD.. checking it out

 

[wackypete2]

What patterns do you fade? Triangles? Or bar/candle type? You do mean chart patterns, right? B/c of course that's the whole other area of Objective Pattern study is statistically-discovered, multivariable patterns. That can be great for the probability backdrop in which to use these M&W/ABCD Swing Patterns.

I don't bother much with candle patterns. I like triangles and rising or falling channels. The way I fade them is when I see a pattern on a 5m or 15m timeframe that has a breakout against the 1 hour trend then I fade it.

Peter

 

[natureboy]

Hourly M7 buy pattern, sure.



15m momentum i watch is confirming. No timing on this one.. I'm entering and trailing an exit.

 

[natureboy]

Aye yai yai.. Daily has a resistance level a priori.. i'd think if anything price might get to 1.6250 at best... not liking this nearly as much now

 

[natureboy]

I don't bother much with candle patterns. I like triangles and rising or falling channels. The way I fade them is when I see a pattern on a 5m or 15m timeframe that has a breakout against the 1 hour trend then I fade it.

Peter

Gotcha. I see how that could work. i'll check that out

 

[natureboy]

Bullish above 1.6157, targeting 1.6250 area on GPBUSD. No releases this morning, so one component i look for - time event - is not here.

--

Peter - do you ID those patterns manually or do you have a chart pattern indicator? That could be another thing to design (i'd like to make practical indicators for people)

 

[natureboy]

On the GBPUSD, the ADR(5) only has 1.6230 as likely target

 

[natureboy]

I need to start advertising my site. Some guys have their URL on every post..

Patterns & Forms | Objective Pattern Analysis – Chart Pattern Recognition Indicators – Pattern Trading

Does anyone on T2W even use MultiCharts or TradeStation? haha

 

[natureboy]

GBPUSD bullish above 1.6162

If the hourly pattern 'fails' - by my definition this means a 50% retracement or less - a downtrend is likely. If price get back below that hourly pattern D, 1.6148, coupled with the Daily resistance, downtrend likely