Italy leaving the EU

Atilla said:
It will be back to inflation, falling Lira, more inflation and re-distribution of wealth and more turmoil.

fwiw - I'd recommend the efficiency and discipline of the Germans to that of the Italians or the French.

People have short memories. :(
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This notion has been used and overuse but only reflect a propagandist view . If the Italians would be disciplinarian like the Germans you would not have Michelangelo, Galileo Galilei, Caruso, Lamborghini, Machiavelli, Casanova, pizza, tiramisu'.....,Shakespeare would not have been inspired and the German girls would not travel south to get some "warmth ".
 
Fugazsy said:
This notion has been used and overuse but only reflect a propagandist view . If the Italians would be disciplinarian like the Germans you would not have Michelangelo, Galileo Galilei, Caruso, Lamborghini, Machiavelli, Casanova, pizza, tiramisu'.....,Shakespeare would not have been inspired and the German girls would not travel south to get some "warmth ".
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:clap::clap: brilliant !
 
But I thought that it was somebody on this forum who wanted "a redistribution of wealth", i.e. taking from the rich and giving to the poor through welfare, NHS-like systems, and taxes.
 
tar said:
:LOL:

His presidency will be the most corrupt , how many billionaires did he appoint up to the moment ?
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Well, they didn't get to be billionaires and millionaires because they were inept.

I'd rather have someone in charge of our economy and various government agencies with decades of previous business success than a political appointee that got the job because it was a political favor.

Bill and Hillary Clinton have a limited record of private employment. They were both lawyers but it's been 40 years since they worked in the private sector. They know nothing about running a business.

I don't have the reference ....but last week I saw that Norway wanted the Clintons to return the $45? MN dollars they gave to the Clinton Foundation. And Australia said they wanted their money back too. WHYYYYY....are foreign governments giving a presidential candidate money so THEY can give it away to charity...? Multiple investigations have proven that the only people the Foundation benefits are the Clintons. Are Norwegians so rich that they can give so much money to an American Family? I guess Norway doesn't have poor people. Or were they buying influence?

BTW, Boeing received $31BN in government contracts this year. Boeing's headquarters is Chicago, the home of Obama. Coincidence?, probably not.
 
So, the poll that I saw said that it was 53 NO - 47 YES.

Let's pretend the people have an anti-establishment attitude and it votes YES.

After all, with a 6 point spread they only have to change the minds of 3% + 1 voter.
And it's the people that vote, not the ones that stay home that determine the results.

What will happen with the markets on Monday?

The Euro goes down?
FTSE and DAX go down?
The dollar goes up
Gold goes up?


What do you think?
 
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TexasRangersFan said:
So, the poll that I saw said that it was 53 NO - 47 YES.

Let's pretend the people have an anti-establishment attitude and it votes YES.

After all, with a 6 point spread they only have to change the minds of 3% + 1 voter.
And it's the people that vote, not the ones that stay home that determine the results.

What will happen with the markets on Monday?

The Euro goes down?
FTSE and DAX go down?
The dollar goes up
Gold goes up?


What do you think?
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If Renzi is seen as "the establishment", then a No vote to his reforms would be the anti establishment vote, not just anti establishment Italy, but also anti establishment EU.

In which case, you're 4 example trades would probably be correct. The 2 example trades most likely to be conflicted would be Usd and gold. Traditionally, if Usd goes up, then gold goes down and vice versa. (This assumes you would be trading gold in Usd denomination.)

So for me, I would be short Eur and short Dax and instead of looking at gold and Usd, I would be looking at crosses of Jpy. ( risk off positions )
 
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Might get an exaggerated move on Monday with a no vote.

Liquidity can be low at the best of times on a Monday, should be even lower with the referendum vote, plus the increased margin requirements. Aussies and Kiwis not the biggest players of the game also.

Got more Aussies stock want to buy again at cheap prices and hold in year end or start of the year.

Going into the vote holding multiple position's index, shares, etf and forex
Some long and short across different markets and brokers, will look to off load some position's then play the off side positions with instruments in the other direction.

Gut feel I think this might be a non event, might be wrong and hope I'm wrong.

Been a good year for market moves with the UK and US vote.
 
Oscar Reed said:
Might get an exaggerated move on Monday with a no vote.

Liquidity can be low at the best of times on a Monday, should be even lower with the referendum vote, plus the increased margin requirements. Aussies and Kiwis not the biggest players of the game also.

Got more Aussies stock want to buy again at cheap prices and hold in year end or start of the year.

Going into the vote holding multiple position's index, shares, etf and forex
Some long and short across different markets and brokers, will look to off load some position's then play the off side positions with instruments in the other direction.

Gut feel I think this might be a non event, might be wrong and hope I'm wrong.

Been a good year for market moves with the UK and US vote.
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Interesting times and no let up in political situations that could deliver shocks to the markets. Just a question of which One will be the game changer !
 
TexasRangersFan said:
Well, they didn't get to be billionaires and millionaires because they were inept.

I'd rather have someone in charge of our economy and various government agencies with decades of previous business success than a political appointee that got the job because it was a political favor.
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Point well made Tex. Someone wins millions of dollars 4 times every week through the lottery and most of them end up bankrupt or worse--dead. The argument that Trump was given money as the reason for his success does not hold water. People say that money makes money. The 1% always stays the 1% because they have the money. If that were the case, why do so many lottery winners end up destitute after being handed millions. There is obviously something to be said for these billionaires. It takes real business acumen to turn $14 million into $3 billion. People frequently win more than $14 million through the lottery. Why aren't there more billionaires from that? People can hem and haw all they like.

Only an idiot would say that their success lie in the fact that they were handed millions. How pray tell do they think they turned millions into billions? hmmm?
 
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hhiusa said:
Point well made Tex. Someone wins millions of dollars 4 times every week through the lottery and most of them end up bankrupt or worse--dead. The argument that Trump was given money as the reason for his success does not hold water. People say that money makes money. The 1% always stays the 1% because they have the money. If that were the case, why do so many lottery winners end up destitute after being handed millions. There is obviously something to be said for these billionaires. It takes real business acumen to turn $14 million into $3 billion. People frequently win more than $14 million through the lottery. Why aren't there more billionaires from that? People can hem and haw all they like.

Only an idiot would say that their success lie in the fact that they were handed millions. How pray tell do they think they turned millions into billions? hmmm?
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Well said, I never did think that Trump was a chump, as some try to make us believe. A good president? History will tell us the answer to that.
 
TexasRangersFan said:
So, the poll that I saw said that it was 53 NO - 47 YES.

Let's pretend the people have an anti-establishment attitude and it votes YES. . .
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Perhaps I've got the wrong end of the stick or have misunderstood the poll, but I thought a 'YES' vote is in favour of the constitutional reforms that Matteo Renzi (and the EU) wants to make. A 'NO' vote is for the status quo and is seen as anti-establishment. If the no vote wins, then Renzi has promised to resign which could trigger a general election and (even greater) political turmoil.

Have I got this right - or is it all ar$e about face?
:confused:
Tim.
 
timsk said:
Perhaps I've got the wrong end of the stick or have misunderstood the poll, but I thought a 'YES' vote is in favour of the constitutional reforms that Matteo Renzi (and the EU) wants to make. A 'NO' vote is for the status quo and is seen as anti-establishment. If the no vote wins, then Renzi has promised to resign which could trigger a general election and (even greater) political turmoil.

Have I got this right - or is it all ar$e about face?
:confused:
Tim.
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That's right, post 67.
No vote is anti establishment, insubordination and will be punishable by errrr, something more nasty than a very nasty thing ! :LOL:
 
timsk said:
Perhaps I've got the wrong end of the stick or have misunderstood the poll, but I thought a 'YES' vote is in favour of the constitutional reforms that Matteo Renzi (and the EU) wants to make. A 'NO' vote is for the status quo and is seen as anti-establishment. If the no vote wins, then Renzi has promised to resign which could trigger a general election and (even greater) political turmoil.

Have I got this right - or is it all ar$e about face?
:confused:
Tim.
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I think you got it right, but my perception is that if he resign nothing will go in turmoil, it is just part of the scaring campaign made by some media, just at it was made prior to Brexit and the US elections

If he resigned (I doubt he will, he is like Pinocchio), they will appoint a brief technical government before and finally we will have democratic election, maybe due in six months time. If the M5S wins those election they will call the people for a referendum to stay or leave.

If they decide to leave then the European Union is at risk.

But before it I think the new possible government (M5s) will try to talk with the EU about renegotiate some deals including having a different euro based on the strength of the economy......and many other issues.
 
timsk said:
Perhaps I've got the wrong end of the stick or have misunderstood the poll, but I thought a 'YES' vote is in favour of the constitutional reforms that Matteo Renzi (and the EU) wants to make. A 'NO' vote is for the status quo and is seen as anti-establishment. If the no vote wins, then Renzi has promised to resign which could trigger a general election and (even greater) political turmoil.

Have I got this right - or is it all ar$e about face?
:confused:
Tim.
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That is right. I read about it in the La Vanguardia this morning. It has to be right!
 
This is another major F-up imo. It is almost out doing the Brexit referendum in its magnitude on what exactly are the Italian people voting on.

Is it to change the constitution?

Is it to get Renzi out?

Is it to get Italy out of the Euro?

Is it to get Italy to renogiate a new EU relationship?

Is it a protest vote against the establishment - what ever that means to anyone who has some gripe against politicians and bereaurcrats?


Someone should read what referendum's are about and how they should be conducted and formulated. Good practice and all that integrity business.


Brexit was the same. Did the people vote to;

Leave the EU

Stop illegal migration

Stop free movement of people

Stop free movement of labour

Leave the single market

Stop contributing

Stop international trade being regulated with directives from the EU


These are conflicting objectives.


I fear Italy going down the same route.


Just very p155 poor way to conduct politics and referendum. Asking disenfranchised and not very well informed or educated people to make a decisions on all this complicated stuff in response to a global crises impacting just about every nation on the planet.


Good luck to the Italians (y)
 
timsk said:
Perhaps I've got the wrong end of the stick or have misunderstood the poll, but I thought a 'YES' vote is in favour of the constitutional reforms that Matteo Renzi (and the EU) wants to make. A 'NO' vote is for the status quo and is seen as anti-establishment. If the no vote wins, then Renzi has promised to resign which could trigger a general election and (even greater) political turmoil.

Have I got this right - or is it all ar$e about face?
:confused:
Tim.
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Lucky you are not voting Timsk as asking the question what does NO or YES mean now on voting day and bringing it down for a vote re: Establishment just goes to show how people approach these issues.

I vote YES (y)
 
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