Is it really possible to make money in this trading lark?

[nobrainer]

Marketgeeni, its hard to take you seriously since you presumably never went to school.Once you learn in which order an 'i' and an 'e' are placed in a word, I may change my mind.
Vorpal, since your tale did not start with 500quid, its irrelevent.No one disputes that its possible to make loads of money, just that to do it in 6 months with £500 is somewhat hard to fathom.
Anley's point on the 500quid as starting capital is the one that puzzles me.Spot on Anley!!
As for those who have intimated that us disbelievers are probably not good traders, I can only laugh.I'd put myself in the top 2% of uk private CFD traders and that's not in ROCE but in pounds and pence having spoken at length with both gni , etrade and Ig Index on the subject.
Apologies if I choose not to be taken in by this wonderful tale but I'd rather live in the ''real world.''

 

[longshot666]

the original topic

Yes its possible to make consistent money in the markets. But don't be fooled, it is incredibly tough. Think about the competition. The markets are very efficient, but not entirely. There are full time traders out there with millions of dollars of research capital available to them. They have teams of PHD math wizards and teams of programmers available to them to look for market edges. Here you are, a lone trader, with limited resources, limited time, and far less capital trying to find the edges before they do. Get the picture? This game is very tough, and probably tougher than anything you have ever tried before. If you are dedicated enough, work extremely hard, are fairly bright, have some skills that can help, like math/programming/creativity, etc, then you have a shot at it. But if it takes you several years of study and system development to find your first system that works, dont be surprised. For most people, there are far easier ways of making money than trading. Thats the cold hard reality. The road ahead for a brand new trader is a ver long one. If you dont have a passion for this, and are only in it for the money, you will probably fail. Lastly, there are exceptions to every rule

 

[Trader333]

marketgeeni,

My question was genuine, if you are able to make that kind of money in that timescale what reason is there to try and make even more money ? Maybe it is greed ?

As for attempting to slate me, well that is up to you but I have helped many many people on these boards in almost every area of trading and hopefully you will consider doing the same ?


Paul

 

[Battler]

Good point Longshot666 and because I am new to trading, I am going to try to follow what those guys do

AB

 

[anley]

You see when people make intelligent posts like nobrainer and longshot they deserve credit because it's obvious they know what this game is about.

But when people come onto any message board and make ridiculous claims then they should expect to be shot down in flames and derided. Of course there are exceptions to every rule but to state you or a friend makes 1000's percent in short periods of time (as if it's easy), well personally I prefer to live as nobrains says in the 'real world'.

PS. Marketgeeni, repeat 10 times before you go to bed and also first thing in the morning;

i before e except after c
i before e except after c
i before e except after c etc etc

 

[juanbyte]

The original questio was "Is it possible to make money in this trading lark?"

Do divergences make money? I will let you decide. When the lines of the RSI and Mkt converge to the right on a lower low of the market this is a buy.
When the lines RSI and Mkt diverge on a higher high in the market this is a sell.
Notice that there is confirmation that the trend has ended buy the peaks on the black ADX.
200 x £10 stake = £2000, not bad for a days work. Worth looking into?

You could be a wimp or just have a poor system and risk 1%, with a 20 point stoploss you would make 10% ROC

You could risk 40% max (not recomended) and make 400% in one day.

You could work out the optimum amount you could risk without ruin, based on your current trading performance and risk say 10%. this would make 100%.

I do not see what is difficult with the above chart. If you do not understand it, you shouldn't be trading. It is free and does not look like a Christmas tree or spaghetti junction.

All you have to do is buy when the market is going up and sell when it is going down nothing else, that is what all the systems, methods, indicators aim to achieve.

This cannot be right it must be b@ll@cks because you can't make these sort of gains, you can't win 90% of the time. Damn I thought I had it sorted.

I will buy and hold the Dow, nice only down 11 points today.

 

[Roberto]

Great post, juanbyte, and one of the best examples of divergence I've seen for a while.

 

[LION63]

Quite simple but very effective, thanks for sharing that.

 

[longshot666]

juanbyte expects us to decide if divergences make money based on a single day, with a whopping 5 "pseudo after the fact signals" on it?

If I show you a system with 5 winners in a row, would you buy it from me for $10,000??? Cuz I have an unlimited number of systems that can show this behavior

In fact, I can trade at random and get 5/5 winners in a day every now and then.

If you are attempting to convince someone that something works, you must provide a statistically significant sample set or its worthless information.

 

[chump]

I don't look at 1 min charts so I don't what sort of reactions you need to deal with them however, as as been pointed out many (groan) times in the past this is a great deal easier to see retrospectively off a chart than it is in real time....that right hand edge fools most people real time.. having said which divergence is a favourite of mine for confirmation purposes only..

 

[Buk]

interesting to note where the 2 major 'turns' took place on those divergences.....aaaah, on the round numbers (10/90)

funny that, I know someone else who favours those (& the half primes) on the back of div confirmers, good stuff juanbyte

 

[juanbyte]

Chump

The divergences work on many different markets e.g. Dow, Dax, S&P and EUR/USD.

Also over different time scales, it can be used with daily bars instead of 1 minute on the Dow for longer term trades for about 200 points win per trade, uses a different indicator.

Long**** if you want to know how it has performed do your own research, stop scrounging without contributing anything of value.

There are people in the USA that are charging $5000 for something very similar, they do LIVE demos to show it works not just back results, it has been given here free.

Think I am begining to understand why people say it is hard to make money, if it was easy they couldn't say how clever they are at beating the market and feel superior, sorry it is only hard if you make it difficult or have a cr@p system.

 

[nice n smooth]

has any one on here closed a spread bet postion for say 1 m ?

I doubt it

 

[anley]

juanbyte, I know you say it's not recommended but how you can even state that 'if you risk 40% of your account on a trade you can make 400% in a day' is beyond me. And you sell a book or course don't you? So irresponsible.

And if I see people (especially new traders) risking 1% on a trade I'd pat them on the back and congratulate them on their intelligent approach to risk management, not call them wimps........

 

[juanbyte]

I was just pointing out the maximum that could be gained via spreadbetting and see no problem in advising that it is not recommended, offering low 50:1 margins and you being undercapitalised is a sure way for the spreadbet firms to win and you to lose.

What is wrong with calculating mathematically the optimum amount to risk based on ones current performance, I can risk 79% without ruin but I do not, I will risk about 10% of my risk which means that I will make 8 times more than someone risking 1%.

There are many methods of trading and each will have a different risk value, I cannot see how one fits all.

How do you arrive at the 1% figure you keep quoting?

My book has nothing to do with this thread, all information was given free, I have just shown a simple method that yesterday produced over 200 points profit on the Dow with minimal downside. What is wrong with that, what can you show me that was as profitable?

 

[anley]

I will risk about 10% of my risk which means that I will make 8 times more than someone risking 1%.

It's always about winning and how much one can make with a lot of people and those are the ones that tend to lose overtime, in fact some would suggest that they never had a chance to begin with. Of course there are aways exceptions to the rule.

Want to stand a chance in this game? Forget about winning and how much you can make, instead focus on how much you're risking.

Without proper risk control (and fully understanding why it's so important) you might as well stoke your winter fires with £50 notes.

 

[longshot666]

Like I said, I can show you 100 systems that look good like that in hindsight for one whole day. Does this mean they are worth anything? No.

Your so called "method" has been around forever, and ive already run tons of backtests on methods like that and they are not worth trading. I didnt look at 5 whole signals either, I looked at thousands of signals across many markets. I need objectively quantifiable numbers, not silly subjective squiggles someone throws on a chart and proclaims WA LAA! Behold!


But here is my favorite part:

...sorry it is only hard if you make it difficult or have a cr@p system.

Gee, now this guy thinks I have a crap system? He thinks im making it difficult? Wow, more amazing mind reading powers. Just because I shoot down the obvious, doesnt say a thing about my systems. Got that? You have no idea how my systems perform, and they are certainly statistically siginificant, unlike the silly hindsight chart you threw up.


You claim divergence works on many different markets, but when someone points out your data is not statistically significant, not even remotely, you cry and tell them to do their own research?? Thank you for verifying you didnt actually provide anything useful at all

Chump? The only chumps around here are people ignorant enough to believe your "system" works because you threw up one chart. Ignorance is bliss I guess. People get mad when you point on the truth of the matter. A sign of a true neophyte trader.

 

[longshot666]

... I can risk 79% without ruin....

Anyone who believes they can risk 79% without an extremely extremely high probability of ruin doesn't know the first thing about trading. I know, im stating the obvious, but it seems some people dont event know the obvious. You might want to look into some risk of ruin formula's, and plug in your numbers before making more outrageous claims like this.

 

[chump]

Longshot,
i have analysed your posts and all I can truly take from them in a verifiable manner is that you have absolutely confirmed that there is indeed an awful lot of BULL in Texas .....LOL...regards to George

 

[longshot666]

That's a shame, because what you should have walked away with is that there is an awful lot of BULL in the markets, filled with shysters who claim magnificent returns, filled with internet wannabee traders who talk and talk and provide horrible information to newbies containing absolutely no value, and worse, misleads them into believing dangerous trading myths.

Instead of claiming there is bull, why not specifically point to something I said WAS bull???
I just love people who constantly make claims and never attempt to back them up.

Then again, its understandable, people who are new to trading WANT to believe these silly little myths. The cold hard truth is not nearly as romantic. Trading is very difficult, and takes a ton of hard work to accomplish. If you want to believe the nonsense about risking huge percentages of your account on single positions, or that people make 400,000% returns in 6 months, be my gullible, ignorant guest. The traders who know better will take all your money until you are wiped out.

Longshot,
i have analysed your posts and all I can truly take from them in a verifiable manner is that you have absolutely confirmed that there is indeed an awful lot of BULL in Texas .....LOL...regards to George