Intraday Live short term trading calls from an Expert Retail Forex Trader

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SteveJM said:
Hey Pete - how to categorise/quantify bermuda triangle areas?
Click to expand...

They are really indecision areas at key levels.

In many cases just 5 - 7 pips either way can generate new moves

They will happen after larger wave moves of say 25 + pips and when volumes drop and traders are either exiting with profit - or being stopped out if in the wrong way

Normally always like bull or bear flags with ranges under 25 pips.

On pairs like GJ and GU might even be 40 -50 pip ranges in slow times - on EU and AU as low as only 10 -15 pip ranges.

The one we are seeing on EU now is classic - 90 mins of less than 10 pip up and downs still

I will print some charts with some on later or tomorrow
 
F:- "I will print some charts with some on later or tomorrow"

that's always helpful - many thanks
 
Pete - what is the bright yellow line on your chart? - it doesn't behave like a linear regression
 
SteveJM said:
Hey MM - do you mean that trying to follow rules or assemble a set of rules and then trying to fit Price Action (round peg) to the rules (square hole) is a fruitless task?
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no, but thats an interesting idea.
I think this: At first i expected too be able to learn a set of rules and apply them.
there are of course basic rules. ie the LR rules might follow rules for ma. eg price below 200 =bearish etc. I also have hull and GMMA ticking in the back of my head when i look at lr ( don't know whether i should but i think its all broadly similar).
I now think that viewing it as a mechanical thing is an error.
I think the idea put forward by F about looking for clues is the best fit description. We have four elements.(1) pa ( we might glean a clue from structure)
(2) Time ( an inevitable component as the planet spins etc. can we spot repetitive times where behavior changes?)
(3) LR ( The mathematical component - does price need to revert as a natural tendency or will it break away)
(4) Support and Resistance ( purist charting. you are ok if you know where your ruler/towel is)
So we can improve from random entry by stacking up a bunch of clues, managing ourselves and money appropriately, and any other essential skill set anyone wishes to add etc.
If this is way far of the mark, i hope its useful as a guide of how not to think!! Its just my reflection as an average punter from spending time with it.
Whatever, just spending time with pa has helped me immensely. I would never ever take an entry off a chart above m3 again imo, unless of course i learn the error of this thinking at some point in the future.
Oh, and there is no spoon. ( can u spot the other tv reference in the text?)
 
great summary MM - I would be interested to hear P's thoughts on it too.

Are you using a 1 min or a 3 min chart? I was looking at a tick chart this morning but I am so used to using time charts that I miss clues on tick charts - for example I had a short on today and there was a 3 pip push to the downside and then price just stayed in one place for an age (seemed like an age ) and what was happening was that there was a battle whereby sellers and buyers were cancelling each other out - actually the market makers were soaking up retail seller volume. I should have twigged that was happening and got out for a 4 pip profit. I went on to make a 2 pip loss when there was a sharp snap back upwards. That one tick bar covered 2 and a half minutes. On the 1 minute chart there was a pin bar which I am used to using as a clue that there could be a turnaround, then there was a very small bearish bar that closed inside the pin bar and then came the strong bull bar - when you have just a 4 pip profit and you see a pin bar come against you that is a strong sign to take your profit and run and look for a new entry. So I think I will be sticking with the 1 minute chart from now on.
 
We have four elements.
(1) pa ( we might glean a clue from structure)
YES, ESPECIALLY WITH HIGHER HIGHS/LOWS ETC. ALSO CONSOLIDATION PATTERNS
(2) Time ( an inevitable component as the planet spins etc. can we spot repetitive times where behavior changes?)
I HAD IT IN MY HEAD THAT MOST PRICE CHANGE OCCURS JUST BEFORE THE CLOSE OF THE HOUR - GLAD TO SEE PETE HAS DETAILED IT.
(3) LR ( The mathematical component - does price need to revert as a natural tendency or will it break away)
IT ALWAYS MUST REVERT BUT WE NEVER KNOW EXACTLY WHEN OR HOW FAR - WHAT I HAVE NOTICED IS THAT IF IT PULLS BACK TWICE TO A SET LR OR MA THEN A PATTERN IS ESTABLISHED SO LOOK FOR A THIRD TIME.
(4) Support and Resistance ( purist charting. you are ok if you know where your ruler/towel is)
I ALWAYS THOUGHT DIAGONAL TRENDLINES AND CHANNELS WERE COINCIDENTAL - BUT IF THAT IS SO COINCIDENCE STRIKES REMARKABLY OFTEN.
So we can improve from random entry by stacking up a bunch of clues, managing ourselves and money appropriately, and any other essential skill set anyone wishes to add etc.
 
SteveJM said:
great summary MM - I would be interested to hear P's thoughts on it too.

Are you using a 1 min or a 3 min chart? I was looking at a tick chart this morning but I am so used to using time charts that I miss clues on tick charts - for example I had a short on today and there was a 3 pip push to the downside and then price just stayed in one place for an age (seemed like an age ) and what was happening was that there was a battle whereby sellers and buyers were cancelling each other out - actually the market makers were soaking up retail seller volume. I should have twigged that was happening and got out for a 4 pip profit. I went on to make a 2 pip loss when there was a sharp snap back upwards. That one tick bar covered 2 and a half minutes. On the 1 minute chart there was a pin bar which I am used to using as a clue that there could be a turnaround, then there was a very small bearish bar that closed inside the pin bar and then came the strong bull bar - when you have just a 4 pip profit and you see a pin bar come against you that is a strong sign to take your profit and run and look for a new entry. So I think I will be sticking with the 1 minute chart from now on.
Click to expand...
i will have to digest this
i know nothing of tick charts. i would welcome to soak up all you can offer me perhaps you could run a thread about it?
 
I ALWAYS THOUGHT DIAGONAL TRENDLINES AND CHANNELS WERE COINCIDENTAL - BUT IF THAT IS SO COINCIDENCE STRIKES REMARKABLY OFTEN.

Blimey dont start me on diagonals. Pitchforks rule
 
MajorMagnuM said:
i will have to digest this
i know nothing of tick charts. i would welcome to soak up all you can offer me perhaps you could run a thread about it?
Click to expand...

well I don't know much about tick charts but supposedly they are a more accurate graphical representation of price as it moves up and down - and that may well be so in which case I would say you have to get used to it - just saying that for better or worse I am very used to candles.
Care to elaborate on pitchforks and how you interpret them?
Edit:- I could write a thread on tick charts if my life depended on it but it would just be a copy and paste job and the guillotine would be hovering - no insight I can offer there although if others can chime in then have at it
 
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