If You Can Draw A Straight Line (You Can Become A Successful Trader)
- Status
Hi db, Knowing my lifetime record of keeping a diary and New Year resolutions, etc. I am not about to start a journal. It would be a five day wonder. I know me!
I want to say, though, thanks for this thread. It has helped me more than I thought it would and I'll push it as "to be read" by anyone who wants to know what to read.
I want to say, though, thanks for this thread. It has helped me more than I thought it would and I'll push it as "to be read" by anyone who wants to know what to read.
dbphoenix
Guest Author
- Messages
- 6,954
- Likes
- 1,266
Thank you. The "Readers' Digest" version in the first post has served me well. If after reading 19p the individual wants to move on to the whole thing (140p), he has the option of doing so. If he doesn't, then he needn't. If he's not interested enough to read 19 pages, then this is obviously not for him. Sort of like the "Look Inside" that Amazon provides for many of its books.
As for the journal, I still keep it. Every day. It's become a habit that would be difficult to break.
As for the journal, I still keep it. Every day. It's become a habit that would be difficult to break.
Gring0
Well-known member
- Messages
- 264
- Likes
- 128
Price pushed upwards after the Fed rate decision. The strength seemed to be there. Yet, within the hour all gains evaporated as demand buckled fast. Supply took over around the median of the TR which happens to also be a lower trend line of the TC out of which price fell after a month or so ago (visible on weekly).
A few things became apparent after this sudden weakness. Price has trouble staying in the TC with 4340 as the bottom. It may appear that price is still close to the bottom and may push up again. This would be a retracement on the daily and hourly if one isn't too tight with the DL.
Notice that the S/R at the bottom of the TR isn't really doing much to price. In other words, to me it's not acting like a strong S/R and as a result is deserving of lesser attention. There is some influence but it's not like price is touching a live wire and getting a kick. Notice the behaviour around the median (4440) of the TR and see the difference. That was a kind of kick that shows the intent of the buyers and sellers.
What's more important is the behaviour of price. Price is zigzagging here and at least I am now waiting for another rise and a failure to look to the downside. In case demand gets its footing, price as a result will rise, it would negate the signs of weakness and give us a hint to re-evaluate.
All in all I am looking to the downside and hoping price gets close to the 4400 area or higher to get as close to the danger point, which for me is around 4440 for now.
On the weekly price is still in the retrace mode after the large fall out of the TC. This also gives the potential that if a reasonable entry is made and price does crumble, it could end up being a strong move. It's no guarantee this is how it's going to unfold but when larger bar intervals align with smaller bar intervals interesting moves can take place.
Gringo
A few things became apparent after this sudden weakness. Price has trouble staying in the TC with 4340 as the bottom. It may appear that price is still close to the bottom and may push up again. This would be a retracement on the daily and hourly if one isn't too tight with the DL.
Notice that the S/R at the bottom of the TR isn't really doing much to price. In other words, to me it's not acting like a strong S/R and as a result is deserving of lesser attention. There is some influence but it's not like price is touching a live wire and getting a kick. Notice the behaviour around the median (4440) of the TR and see the difference. That was a kind of kick that shows the intent of the buyers and sellers.
What's more important is the behaviour of price. Price is zigzagging here and at least I am now waiting for another rise and a failure to look to the downside. In case demand gets its footing, price as a result will rise, it would negate the signs of weakness and give us a hint to re-evaluate.
All in all I am looking to the downside and hoping price gets close to the 4400 area or higher to get as close to the danger point, which for me is around 4440 for now.
On the weekly price is still in the retrace mode after the large fall out of the TC. This also gives the potential that if a reasonable entry is made and price does crumble, it could end up being a strong move. It's no guarantee this is how it's going to unfold but when larger bar intervals align with smaller bar intervals interesting moves can take place.
Gringo
Attachments
Last edited:
dbphoenix
Guest Author
- Messages
- 6,954
- Likes
- 1,266
This is a good example of the confusion amongst professionals (i.e., those who are trading OPM): they don't know exactly what to do and so they look at what others are doing (how price is behaving) and finding that nobody else knows what to do either. And so we range . . .
Gring0
Well-known member
- Messages
- 264
- Likes
- 128
Gold
There's a clear down trend still in place. Price has broken to the downside of the trading range but after a RET back to the TR the downward continuation seems to have not happened (something to pay attention to). For those using pure SLA there is nothing to do until the downward sloping line is broken first (assuming of course that one's already not short).
For those also watching the TR, price could get back into the TR and from there we'll have to see whether it's a continuation of sideways movement or a change in trend. Most likely to get back into the range the SL will need to be broken. The information gleaned from the TR reclaim or a SL break is almost the same (though not exactly the same).
Those following SLA have no worries as it's quite mechanical. Later when one gets a bit of a hang of how price moves this first anomaly of not continuing downward is of interest. Based on how aggressive or passive one is a number of tactical actions are possible here.
Even though it's the same information for all, some could try their hands at longs but those who prefer a bit more confirmation and proper break of line would want to wait a bit until more strength is shown by demand. Keep in mind here that this could be just another blip before demand gives up again. Nonetheless, we don't know in advance what the future holds and must make decisions in the present.
This also to some extent illustrates how two traders with similar ability to read price could take different actions despite reading the price behaviour similarly. Their personal preferences, risk tolerances, and testing play a role in determining what constitutes an entry suitable for them. SLA provides one with the ability (a very good one) to not have to deal with a lot of decisions at the beginning and to get comfortable watching price without too many distractions.
Gringo
There's a clear down trend still in place. Price has broken to the downside of the trading range but after a RET back to the TR the downward continuation seems to have not happened (something to pay attention to). For those using pure SLA there is nothing to do until the downward sloping line is broken first (assuming of course that one's already not short).
For those also watching the TR, price could get back into the TR and from there we'll have to see whether it's a continuation of sideways movement or a change in trend. Most likely to get back into the range the SL will need to be broken. The information gleaned from the TR reclaim or a SL break is almost the same (though not exactly the same).
Those following SLA have no worries as it's quite mechanical. Later when one gets a bit of a hang of how price moves this first anomaly of not continuing downward is of interest. Based on how aggressive or passive one is a number of tactical actions are possible here.
Even though it's the same information for all, some could try their hands at longs but those who prefer a bit more confirmation and proper break of line would want to wait a bit until more strength is shown by demand. Keep in mind here that this could be just another blip before demand gives up again. Nonetheless, we don't know in advance what the future holds and must make decisions in the present.
This also to some extent illustrates how two traders with similar ability to read price could take different actions despite reading the price behaviour similarly. Their personal preferences, risk tolerances, and testing play a role in determining what constitutes an entry suitable for them. SLA provides one with the ability (a very good one) to not have to deal with a lot of decisions at the beginning and to get comfortable watching price without too many distractions.
Gringo
Attachments
Last edited:
Since reading this thread I can say that with the last 20 trades, I have had 3 losers. Its not that I follow it to the letter, I am too set in my ways for that and am a day trader, but keeping to the right side of trendline is an excellent way to keep losses low.
Dont you worry db, I have it right hear beside me, and using the concept of tracking the S+D to the max, adjusted of course to fit my own ammo.
Thanks
Last edited:
dbphoenix
Guest Author
- Messages
- 6,954
- Likes
- 1,266
From the attic:
If one understands that price and its movement are independent of however we choose to display them, then he pretty much has it. To me, this is a given, but there are those to whom the concept of the continuous flow of price makes no sense. They will see the market very differently.
(Coincidentally, those who do not grasp the continuous nature of price flow often also consider displays in smaller bar intervals to be "noise", i.e., meaningless, random, irrelevant.)
Whether one displays price in time bars, tick bars, range bars, constant volume bars, point & figure, dots, lines, histograms or musical notes is of no concern to price. As long as something is being traded, it's going to do what it's going to do, even if one chooses not to "print" it at all. Finding reasonable and objective explanations of each of these options can be problematic since those who offer the explanations often feel as though whichever option they've selected provides the answer they've been looking for, and if only everyone chose the same option, everything would be clear and everyone's problems would be over. Would that it were so easy.
One must remember that the more obvious the movement, however it is displayed, the more people there are who will see it. Therefore, if one trades EOD using daily bars, he's going to have an awful lot of company. Everybody sees that. Everybody. But if he's trading 5-second bars, not so much. Therefore, he's more likely to take quick profits because the trading crowd he hangs around with is generally not in this for the long haul.
However, if he locates a point where all these waves intersect, he can use that 5-second chart to enter a position and have the combined forces of everyone who's looking at a daily chart and hourly and 15m and so forth behind him, providing the confidence he may need to give the trade a little bit of room, a little bit of time to "ripen", rather than be shaken out of what will be a very profitable trade by a momentary twitch that plays only a small part in the grander scheme of things.
If one understands that price and its movement are independent of however we choose to display them, then he pretty much has it. To me, this is a given, but there are those to whom the concept of the continuous flow of price makes no sense. They will see the market very differently.
(Coincidentally, those who do not grasp the continuous nature of price flow often also consider displays in smaller bar intervals to be "noise", i.e., meaningless, random, irrelevant.)
Whether one displays price in time bars, tick bars, range bars, constant volume bars, point & figure, dots, lines, histograms or musical notes is of no concern to price. As long as something is being traded, it's going to do what it's going to do, even if one chooses not to "print" it at all. Finding reasonable and objective explanations of each of these options can be problematic since those who offer the explanations often feel as though whichever option they've selected provides the answer they've been looking for, and if only everyone chose the same option, everything would be clear and everyone's problems would be over. Would that it were so easy.
One must remember that the more obvious the movement, however it is displayed, the more people there are who will see it. Therefore, if one trades EOD using daily bars, he's going to have an awful lot of company. Everybody sees that. Everybody. But if he's trading 5-second bars, not so much. Therefore, he's more likely to take quick profits because the trading crowd he hangs around with is generally not in this for the long haul.
However, if he locates a point where all these waves intersect, he can use that 5-second chart to enter a position and have the combined forces of everyone who's looking at a daily chart and hourly and 15m and so forth behind him, providing the confidence he may need to give the trade a little bit of room, a little bit of time to "ripen", rather than be shaken out of what will be a very profitable trade by a momentary twitch that plays only a small part in the grander scheme of things.
Attachments
Unfortunately, this patronizingly anodyne fortune cookie advice gives you no more specific impetus on when and how and when not and why not than do the currently unfortunately only temprary halt to the ravings of a 100% hindight merchant.
Can you take your next trade, specifically, on the guidelines above? No. Or if you can, call it.
I'm not out to wipe the floor with pointlessness, just to call it.
Tell me something I can immediately and usefully apply.
Can you take your next trade, specifically, on the guidelines above? No. Or if you can, call it.
I'm not out to wipe the floor with pointlessness, just to call it.
Tell me something I can immediately and usefully apply.
Gring0
Well-known member
- Messages
- 264
- Likes
- 128
Bother to read the first post. Trading gods aren't going to descend into your room via one post and turn you into their champion.
tar
Legendary member
- Messages
- 10,443
- Likes
- 1,314
?
This is the first time i hear that this quote "Traders trade not the market but their perceptions of it" is Db's . Its Van Tharp's !
Not only did I read the first post, but the entire thread or I wouldn't have felt qualified to expend the effort and respond. While your attempt at zen-like instruction is well within the style of this thread, it similarly lacks any real world utility. The proof of any system or method is in its utility going forward. Appreciation of how we got price got to where it is now and what it might do next is all well and good, but for the trader with his nose six inches from the screen during live session this provides no edge. It is only when adopting a more relaxed approach out of session, taking a wider perspective with one's nose several feet from the charts that one can expound so apparently authoritatively on the underlying mechanics. Great for text books on trading, but lousy for actually making any money in the markets.
“If one understands that price and its movement are independent of however we choose to display them, then he pretty much has it. To me, this is a given, but there are those to whom the concept of the continuous flow of price makes no sense. They will see the market very differently.
(Coincidentally, those who do not grasp the continuous nature of price flow often also consider displays in smaller bar intervals to be "noise", i.e., meaningless, random, irrelevant.)
Whether one displays price in time bars, tick bars, range bars, constant volume bars, point & figure, dots, lines, histograms or musical notes is of no concern to price. As long as something is being traded, it's going to do what it's going to do, even if one chooses not to "print" it at all. Finding reasonable and objective explanations of each of these options can be problematic since those who offer the explanations often feel as though whichever option they've selected provides the answer they've been looking for, and if only everyone chose the same option, everything would be clear and everyone's problems would be over. Would that it were so easy.
One must remember that the more obvious the movement, however it is displayed, the more people there are who will see it. Therefore, if one trades EOD using daily bars, he's going to have an awful lot of company. Everybody sees that. Everybody. But if he's trading 5-second bars, not so much. Therefore, he's more likely to take quick profits because the trading crowd he hangs around with is generally not in this for the long haul.
However, if he locates a point where all these waves intersect, he can use that 5-second chart to enter a position and have the combined forces of everyone who's looking at a daily chart and hourly and 15m and so forth behind him, providing the confidence he may need to give the trade a little bit of room, a little bit of time to "ripen", rather than be shaken out of what will be a very profitable trade by a momentary twitch that plays only a small part in the grander scheme of things.”
As you appear to be a fan of this sort of stuff, put the above text into a methodological format that can be applied systematically. If you’re unable or unwilling or choose to side-step, stay silent or do the two step, which is more likely, then my point will have been well made.
Gring0
Well-known member
- Messages
- 264
- Likes
- 128
Using the SLA (a crutch for the damaged or a new trader), a journey begins where one's learning to look at price in a new way. Not everyone prefers or is suited to this way of looking at price. And from the looks of it, there are very few who trade price this way. Those who do get to using it eventually can appreciate the meaning and the reasoning for looking at price as being continuous. Others may prefer whatever methods they use. Ultimately the objective is to make a profit and there are many ways of going about it, SLA being just one of them.
tar
Legendary member
- Messages
- 10,443
- Likes
- 1,314
Then you cant refer it to DbPhoenix , doesn't sound right ....
- Status
