Hot Forex - Market Analysis and News.

[HFM.]

Date : 2nd January 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 2nd January 2017.

FX News Today

United States: The U.S. data slate is heavy and the reports should be consistent with modest Q4 growth as the overall economy has yet to be impacted by Trump. Kicking off the year will be the December ISM manufacturing index (Tuesday). Also on tap (Tuesday) is the final December Markit PMI reading and November construction spending. Construction spending is expected to rise 0.6% after November’s 0.5% gain. Vehicle sales for December (Wednesday) are expected to inch up slightly with autos at a 5.2 mln pace. The ADP private payrolls survey (Thursday) is expected at a 175k pace, down from 216k in November. The ISM non-manufacturing index (Thursday) is projected sliding to 56.5 from 57.2 in November. The final Markit services reading is also due (Thursday). The December nonfarm payroll report (Friday) will highlight and complete the data for the first week of the new year. Expectations are for a 185k increase, after November’s 178k rise, with the unemployment rate edging up to 4.7% from 4.6%. The workweek is projected steady at 34.4 hours. Average hourly earnings are expected to rebound to 0.2% after dipping 0.1% in November. The FOMC minutes to the December 13, 14 policy meeting are on tap (Wednesday). Though the report would usually be highly anticipated by the markets, its importance has been diminished by the dot-plot showing estimates for three quarter point hikes in 2017, and by the fact that the usually dovish Chair Yellen seemed fully supportive of the more hawkish stance.

Canada: December employment report, trade deficit both highlight the week on Friday. Other highlights include the industrial product price index (Thursday). The Ivey PMI is also due (Friday), while the RBC’s manufacturing index for December (Tuesday) is the first report out of the gate for the new year. There is nothing from the Bank of Canada this week.

Europe: Final PMI readings are not expected to bring any real surprises and are expected to confirm manufacturing confidence for the Eurozone (Monday) remains healthy with the index at 54.9. ESI economic sentiment indicator (Friday) is expected to rise to 106.9 versus 106.5 in November. Also due are German manufacturing orders (Friday) and German jobless rate (Tuesday)

UK: 2017 will be a challenging year for the UK, both economically and politically. Creeping price pressures, caused by the weaker pound, which most economists expect will erode real household income, and Brexit-related uncertainty, which has already been suppressing business investment, are expected to manifest in slowing growth momentum. The U.K. calendar this week features the December PMI surveys and the BoE lending data for November.

China: The Caixin/Markit manufacturing PMI (Tuesday) is forecast at 50.7 from 50.9 December services PMI (Thursday) is seen improving to 53.5 from 53.1

Japan: Will be shut through to Tuesday for a bank holiday. The December Nikkei/Markit manufacturing PMI (Wednesday) is expected to dip to 51.8 from the previous 51.9 reading. December auto sales and the Markit services PMI are also due (Thursday).

Australia: The November deficit (Friday) is expected to narrow to -A$0.3 bln from -A$1.5 bln in October. There is nothing from the Reserve Bank of Australia.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Stuart Cowell
Market Analyst
Hot-Forex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 3rd January 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 3rd January 2017.

FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets outside of Japan moved higher after a stronger than expected China Caixin manufacturing PMI. Eurozone stock markets already started the year with modest gains yesterday in very quiet trade, as most of the world remained closed for New Year celebrations. Japanese markets remained closed today, but elsewhere markets are back and it seems stocks are beginning the year in a good mood and optimistic on the growth outlook. Yesterday’s final Eurozone manufacturing PMI readings were also positive and today’s Swiss and U.K. numbers are also expected to confirm that output continues to expand at a solid pace. This should leave the German jobless rate at record lows, while French and German inflation data is set to accelerate sharply on base effects and with risks to forecasts on the upside after the very high Spanish number from last Friday. After the ECB continued ongoing QE purchases for the whole of this year, this doesn’t change the immediate policy outlook, but could temporarily dent the uptrend in Bund futures, that was sparked by Draghi’s affirmation of more asset purchases. The short end meanwhile will remain supported by the abolition of the deposit rate limit.

Overnight Update: China – Caixin Manufacturing PMI for December: 51.9 (expected 50.9, prior 50.9). The figure is close to a 4 year high for the Caixin/Markit Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ index (PMI). The figure has been above 50 for six consecutive months and Output, at 53.7, rose at the fastest pace since January 2011. There was evidence of strong domestic demand although export orders remained “sluggish”. AUDUSD rose to session highs of 0.7230 on the positive news.

Eurozone manufacturing PMI confirmed at 51.9, as expected. The renewed uptick from 53.7 in November means the year ended on a high note and the numbers confirm that the recovery continues and for once on a relatively broad base. with Italy actually surprising on the upside this morning, which shows that the referendum result did little to dent optimism.

ECB Coeure:. The Executive Board member said in an interview with Germany’s Boersenzeitung that personally he doesn’t “exclude upside risks to inflation in 2017 if the reflationary impact of the new U.S. policies dominates“. Coere said “there are signs of an acceleration in headline inflation, above all because of the increase in oil and commodity prices”, adding that the ECB is “still waiting for signs that core inflation is on the rise and will clearly exceed 1%”. He admitted that the ECB’s assessment of the balance of risks, including for inflation, is shifting”, while stressing that the planned cut in monthly purchase volumes this year is “an adjustment not an exit”, and that a phasing out of purchases hasn’t even been discussed yet. Coeure said that a discussion will be needed about normalisation of monetary policy but it needs to be initiated carefully”. And indeed, after the ECB confirmed that asset purchases will remain in place until the end of the year this is not a discussion that will be needed any time soon.

Main Macro Events Today

German HICP – German HICP is seen rising to 1.1% y/y from 0.7% y/y. The better than expected Spanish number last Friday suggests a risk on the upside also for the overall Eurozone HICP rate (due Wednesday), which is expected to rise to 1.0% y/y from 0.6%. This is still far below the ECB’s definition of price stability, but the data will confirms that there is no real risk of a deflationary spiral, although after the ECB already confirmed its policy parameters for 2017 that won’t change the immediate policy outlook. It will add further ammunition though to the growing number of central bankers warning that real tapering can’t be delayed for too long, without undermining financial stability throughout the Eurozone.

US ISM Manufacturing PMI – December ISM is out today and should post a headline increase to 53.5 from 53.2 in November and 51.9 in October. Producer sentiment is continuing to benefit from diminished inventory headwinds and the rebound in oil prices. This should allow sentiment to end the year on a firm footing with the ISM-adjusted average of all measures holding at 53, steady from November and up from 51 in October.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Stuart Cowell
Market Analyst
Hot-Forex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 4th January 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 4th January 2017.

FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets are mostly higher, led by Japan, where the Nikkei closed with a 2.5% gain after an upward revision to the manufacturing PMI reading and underpinned by catch up trades, after yesterday’s holiday. The Hang Seng underperformed and showed a -0.27% loss in late trade, with energy stocks under pressure after the front end WTI future fell back below USD 53 per barrel. See details below. U.S. and U.K. stock futures, however, are moving higher, after broad gains on most markets yesterday and as a strong round of world PMI releases underpins growth optimism and risk appetite. At the same time inflation may be moving higher which is pushing up yields, although even if Eurozone HICP inflation is expected to jump higher and clear the 1.0% mark today, we don’t see the ECB reversing its decision to extend QE purchases through to the end of the year. Today’s European calendar also has Spanish inflation data, the final reading of the Eurozone Services PMI and from the U.K. BoE money supply growth and lending data.

US Data Yesterday: The U.S. ISM rise to a 2-year high of 54.7 from the prior high of 53.2 that was also seen last June left the ISM further above the 7-month low of 49.4 in August, and last December’s 48.0 expansion-low. The mix of available sentiment surveys should allow the ISM-adjusted average to sustain the November surge to a 16-month high of 53 from 51 in October and 50 in August and September. We saw a 49 expansion-low in January and February, and previously in October of 2012. We’re seeing a factory sector rebound that is lifting most producer sentiment and consumer confidence measures in the face of rising oil prices, a reversal in the inventory headwind, and hopes for deregulation and fiscal stimulus in 2017. The economy still faces lingering headwinds from a sluggish world economy, a strong dollar, and still-high oil inventories. U.S. construction spending popped 0.9% higher in November after a 0.6% October gain (revised up from 0.5%), though September was bumped lower to -0.2% from unchanged. The headline reading is better than expected. Spending is up 4.1% y/y. Strength was broad-based.

European Data Yesterday: German HICP jumped to 1.7% y/y, the highest rate since 2013, and starting to eye the 2% limit for price stability. That the headline rate would jump higher at the end of the year on base effects was widely expected, but the number did still come in far above the median forecast and the preliminary breakdown confirmed that most of it was due to energy price increases, which turned to 2.5% y/y in December, from -2.7% y/y in November. German jobless numbers dropped -17k in December, much more than anticipated and with the November decline also revised to -6k from -5k, which confirms that the improvement on the labour market continued at the end of 2016. The jobless rate remained at a record low of 6.0%, with much of the remaining gap due to structural issues and a mismatch of skills on the demand and supply side. The December UK manufacturing PMI smashed forecasts in rising to 56.1 from 53.6 in November, which was revised up from 53.4. The median forecast had been for a 53.4 outcome, while the 56.1 reading is the best since June 2014, indicating brisk expansion in the sector.

US Stocks and Oil swing wildly: Another swing and a miss on Dow 20k has sent stocks scrambling lower, accompanied by a reversal in the dollar, which has reversed lower as well. WTI crude has also doubled back in the melee, falling 2% $52.60 after climbing over 2.5% to clear $55.0 after its probe over $55 earlier (swing of nearly 5%) amid concerns about Libya upping production. Ford announced plans to cancel a $1.6 bln factory in Mexico, perhaps as collateral damage from the Trump tweet storm with U.S. execs, though Ford is up 2.5% (-5.5% 1-year return). GM was criticized by Trump for manufacturing its Cruze model in Mexico, which the company downplayed. The Dow stalled out at 19,938.5, eased below 19,800 before rallying into the close to end the day at 19,881.

Main Macro Events Today

Eurozone HICP – The much higher than expected German and Spanish inflation numbers forecasts for the overall Eurozone reading have been increased significantly to 1.3%, from 0.6% y/y in the previous month. Yields jumped higher on the report yesterday, but while the numbers add to the argument of the critics of Draghi’s expansionary policy, it is unlikely to see the ECB changing its mind on the QE expansion, as the uptick in inflation was already factored into central bank forecasts. It will however bring the question of when the ECB will start “real tapering” that is start a program of cutting back purchases with the intention of phasing them out, back to the agenda.

FOMC Minutes – Though the report would usually be highly anticipated by the markets, its importance has been diminished by the dot-plot showing estimates for three quarter point hikes in 2017, and by the fact that the usually dovish Chair Yellen seemed fully supportive of the more hawkish stance. There’s little the minutes can show that we don’t already think we know. Surprises are unlikely but still potentially high influential.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Stuart Cowell
Market Analyst
Hot-Forex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 5th January 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 5th January 2017.

FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets moved mostly higher with Japanese markets underperforming as the Dollar weakened in the wake of yesterday’s Fed minutes, and a strengthening Yen weighed on Nikkei and Topix. U.S. stock futures are also down, but U.K. futures are moving higher after a pretty lacklustre session in Europe yesterday. Re-inflation and stronger than expected growth numbers have been a difficult mix for markets this week, and even though the ECB has already re-affirmed its commitment to maintain QE purchases through to the end of the year, concerns that the central bank will be running into supply constraints are resurfacing. The calendar today has U.K. Services PMI, Swiss CPI and Eurozone PPI.

FOMC Minutes: FOMC minutes showed a gradual approach was appropriate for now. But upside risks were weighed. About half of the Committee included fiscal policy in their forecasts, although “many” stressed the “considerable uncertainty” over the timing, size, and composition of any fiscal stimulus, not to mention the mix of tax, spending, and regulatory changes. “Many” judged a faster pace of hikes might be necessary. As to downside risks, it was noted that trade barriers, dollar appreciation, and weaker than expected fiscal policy measures could limit growth. The minutes reflected more of an uncertain tone than an overly hawkish one.

Overnight Data: China December Caixin Services PMI: 53.4 (prior 53.1) & Composite 53.5 (priors 52.9) services PIM at 17 month high and the composite is at near 4 year highs. Both manufacturers and services providers see steeper increases in activity, Overall employment declines slightly, due to ongoing job shedding across the manufacturing sector, Input price inflation remains sharp, but companies raise their selling prices at softer pace. AUDUSD ticked up on the news and continued selling pressure on USD at 14 day highs at 07320.

US Data Yesterday: U.S. vehicle sales are topping expectations in December thanks to a combination of deep incentives and heavy demand for trucks, likely putting overall sales on pace to post record gains in 2016. This equates with a pace of 18.2 mln units (SA), matching the highest level in 7-years. Among the larger gains were by GM at 10% vs 4.4% forecast; Nissan 9.7% vs -2.8% expected and VW at 20.3% vs 5.6%. Fiat Chrysler was the worst performer at -10.0%, but even they beat -14.0% estimated. Analysts had been forecasting a pace of 17.4-17.5 mln units, near last year’s record 17.5 mln. Though consumer confidence is on the rise heading into 2017, inventories are up amid a slow new-model rollout and incentives have been as large as $4k/vehicle in December. Trucks accounted for 64% of year-end volume, pushing the average price up to a record $35,309 for a gain of 1.5% y/y. Rising loan and lease rates are also a potential speed bump.

Main Macro Events Today

US Non-Manufacturing ISM – December service sector producer sentiment is out today and should reveal a headline decline to 56.8 from 57.2 in November. Overall, producer sentiment in December remained strong with most measures posting increases. The ISM-adjusted average of all measures looks poised to hold at 53 for a second month, up from 51 in October and 50 as recently as September and August.

US Initial Jobless Claims – Initial claims data for the week of December 31 is also out today and should show an improved headline of 260k (median 262k) from 265k the week prior and 275k in the week before that. More broadly, claims are poised to average a still firm 262k in December, up from 252k in November and 258k in October.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Stuart Cowell
Market Analyst
Hot-Forex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 9th January 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 9th January 2017.

Main Macro Events This Week

Though the December U.S. jobs report was largely plain vanilla, it was good enough to support rising “animal spirits.” The surprise headliner of the report, however, was the 0.4% surge in earnings, which caught the markets’ attention. The question is, was this a one-off gain, or is it a harbinger of a pick-up in wage and price pressures that will push the FOMC into a more aggressive rate hike path? Several Fed voters have already begun to incorporate some Trump stimulus into their projections and are expected to continue to voice that opinion as Republicans are itching to expeditiously move ahead with their pro-business agenda in 2017.

United States: The back-loaded U.S. economic calendar in the wake of the slightly inflationary December employment report could be a little anti-climactic, but there will be a host of potentially relevant fundamental data with retail sales headlining on Friday. Expectations are for 0.7% increase and 0.5% ex- autos. Prior to that anchor release, consumer credit (Monday), Wholesale sales are projected to rise 0.5% in November (Tuesday). The weekly MBA mortgage and EIA energy inventory reports (Wednesday) are on tap next. Import prices are set to increase 0.8% (Thursday) in December given the rebound in oil prices from long-term depressed levels, after their prior 0.3% drop, while export prices are pegged to sink 0.2%. Initial jobless claims should snap back 19k to 254k for the week ended January 7 after their inter-holiday plunge the week prior. With retail sales will come December PPI also due (Friday), Inflation data will be closely monitored after the uptick in earnings/wage growth in December payrolls. Business inventories are forecast to rise 0.7% in November, while preliminary Michigan sentiment may rise to 98.5 in January.

Fedspeak: Fed Chair Yellen returns this week on Thursday. Already Saturday Minneapolis Fed dove Kashkari took part in a “Too-Big-To-Fail” panel and Governor Powell participated in a panel on “Low Interest Rates and Financial Markets.” Monday has updates from Boston dove Rosengren and Atlanta Fed centrist Lockhart. Thursday also brings Philly Fed’s Harker on the economic outlook, Chicago’s Evans on the economy and policy, and St. Louis Fed hawk-dove Bullard on the economy and policy. Harker speaks again on economic mobility on Friday-the-13th.

Canada: Policy relevant economic data remains front and center on Canada’s calendar in the run-up to the January 18 BoC announcement and Monetary Policy Report. The BoC’s Business Outlook Survey is first out of the gate this week (Monday). The slate of housing figures is heavy, with housing starts (Tuesday), building permits (Tuesday), the new home price index for November (Thursday), December Teranet/National HPI (Thursday) and December existing home sales (Friday) all due.

Europe: The year is only a week old, but the focus has switched as inflation is making a comeback and survey indicators continue to come in higher than expected. The central bank just got its QE extension in on time ahead of the uptick in HICP rates, which of course come mainly on the back of base effects from energy prices. The calendar this week will not really add anything new to the outlook for 2017 and data are mainly backward looking with November production numbers from Germany, France and the Eurozone as a whole, as well as final French December HICP readings. The latter are not expected to bring a major surprise and we expect the headline rate to be confirmed at 0.8% y/y, which is in line with consensus. The most up to date number is the initial estimate of full year 2016 GDP from Germany on Thursday, where we look for an acceleration in the overall growth to 1.9% from 1.7% in 2015.

UK: Incoming data, particularly last week’s December PMI surveys yesterday, which smashed forecasts, continue to point to a robust economic rebound from the brief dip that was seen in the month or so following the vote to leave the EU last June. Sentiment in sterling markets has been correspondingly upbeat in early-year trading; the FTSE 100 equity index clocked record highs last week and the pound held its ground on foreign exchanges (though remains 17% below pre-EU vote levels). The calendar this week is highlighted by production figures for November (Wednesday). The BRC retail sales report for December is also up (Tuesday), along with November trades figures (Wednesday) and a smattering of house price data through the week. None of the data is likely to challenge prevailing sentiment.

China: December CPI and PPI (tentatively due Tuesday) are penciled in at 2.1% y/y from 2.3% for the former, and 4.5% y/y from 3.3% for the latter. December new yuan loans (tentatively Tuesday) are expected to slip to CNY 700.0 bon from 794.6 bln. Trade data (due Thursday or Friday) should show modest improvement in the deficit to -$44.0 bln in December.

Japan: Markets will be closed Monday for the “Coming of Age” holiday. The calendar picks up Tuesday with December consumer confidence, which we expect will improve slightly to 41.0 from 40.9. November’s current account surplus (Thursday) is forecast to have narrowed to JPY 1,400.0 bln from JPY 1,719.9 bln previously. December bank loans (Thursday) should be up 2.5% y/y from 2.4% in November.

Australia: The calendar remains thin this week, Retail sales (Tuesday) are projected to improve 0.5% following the identical 0.5% increase in October. There is nothing from the Reserve Bank of Australia. Projects are for steady rates from the RBA in 2017, as the economy gradually adjusts to the post-resource boom environment. The next RBA meeting is in February.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Stuart Cowell
Market Analyst
Hot-Forex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 10th January 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 10th January 2017.

FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets were down, with Japan under pressure (closed down -0.79%at 19,301) as the Yen strengthened. The ASX is also in the red, while the Hang Seng outperformed ahead of economic data out of China later in the week. U.S. and European stock futures are heading sound after already being under pressure yesterday while oil prices are little changed, with the front end USOil future trading around the USD 52 per barrel mark. Bond futures remain supported as stock markets correct and while the drop in Sterling has for now underpinned the multinational dominated FTSE it may not be long before inflation concerns pick up again and weigh on Gilt futures. There is nothing in today’s calendar to shake up markets, with only inflation data out of Norway, French production and Swiss unemployment.

FX Update: The dollar has traded steady-to-softer, losing moderately versus the euro and yen, but gaining versus a still-underperforming sterling. USDJPY logged a two-session low of 115.19 as Tokyo markets returned to the fray following a long weekend in Japan. The conjecture in the market is that higher oil prices and recent weakness in the yen have eroded BoJ easing expectations, which has shifted the relative yield dynamic. USDJPY’s low from last week at 115.07 is in the frame. A breach below here would put the pair in one-month low territory, and a daily close below here would signal a shift to a downside bias. Supports are at 114.77-80 and 114.40, the latter of which is the present situation of the 50-day moving average. EUR-USD clawed out a 12-day peak at 1.0627, before ebbing back under 1.0600 to the upper 1.05s. Cable traded softer versus yesterday’s closing levels, but remained above yesterday’s 10-week low at 1.2124 ,while EUR-GBP clocked a fresh eight-week high at 0.8735. Weakness in the pound was sparked by weekend remarks form PM May, who suggested that a “hard” Brexit is the course being set.

Overnight Data: UK Shop price index rose more than expected to 1.0% in December as UK shoppers spent significantly more on food in the week before Christmas. Poor Retails sales figures for Australia failed to den the AUDUSD rally; Retail Sales grew only 0.2% in November against expectations of a 0.4% rise. Mixed data from China as PPI index beat expectations at 5.5% (4.5% expected) and CPI missed expectations at 0.2% MoM and 2.1% YoY when 0.3% and 2.3% were expected respectively. Better news from Japan as consumer confidence grew to 43.1 from 40.9 last time and beat expectations of 41.3 (consumer confidence in the US is expected at 98.5 on Friday)

US Data Yesterday: US consumer credit surged $24.5 bln in November, stronger than expected, after a $16.2 bln increase in October (revised from $16.0 bln). Non-revolving credit paced the rise, jumping $13.5 bln versus $13.8 bln in October (revised from $13.7 bln). But, revolving credit was up a solid $11.0 compared to the prior $2.4 bln gain (revised from $2.3 bln) — it’s the largest increase in this measure since February 2001, with the record $19.5 bln increase set in April 1998.

Fedspeak: Lockhart said it’s too early to estimate fiscal policy effects, in his written remarks. That’s a contrast from some of his colleagues who priced in some upside risk due to fiscal expectations. And he added it is unclear whether the economy is positioned for markedly higher growth. GDP is forecast at around 2% over the next few years, less optimistic than several others on the Committee, and below the markets’ hopes. Inflation is projected to move to 2.0% this year or next. He still looks for a gradual pace of rate hikes. It’s time for the FOMC to shift to “more of a support role” as the new administration comes into play.

Main Macro Events Today

US Wholesale Trade – Wholesale trade data for November is out today and should reveal a 0.4% sales headline for the month with inventories up 0.9% as indicated by the advance economic indicators report. This follows respective October figures of 1.4% for sales and -0.1% for inventories. Data in line with forecasts would leave the I/S ratio ticking up to 1.31 from 1.30 in October.

Canada Housing Starts – Housing starts are expected to improve to a 190.0k unit rate in December from the 184.0k pace in November. The ever volatile multi-unit category was the source of the decline in total starts during November: multi-unit starts fell 7.7% to 105.9k in November while singe-detached units were steady at 60.9k. Underlying starts growth remained steady in November, as the six-month moving average was 199.1k from 199.6k in October. Permits, also due Tuesday, are expected to reveal a 5.0% drop in value during November after the 8.7% gain in October.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Stuart Cowell
Market Analyst
Hot-Forex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 11th January 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 11th January 2017.

FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian markets managed to move higher, with Hong Kong outperforming as stronger metals boosted miners. The Yen retreated, which helped to underpin gains in Japan, while mainland China underperformed. Oil prices are up on the day, but the front end WTI future is still below USD 51 per barrel, after the latest slump and U.S. and U.K. stock futures are down. Sterling up from recent lows, but still down against most currencies, which should continue to underpin equities, (UK100 closed at a record high for the ninth consecutive day yesterday) but is also reviving inflation concerns. This added to Gilt underperformance versus the Bund yesterday and saw yields moving higher. In the Eurozone spreads were volatile throughout the day yesterday, and yield curves steepened as the short end outperformed again, highlighting that as inflation is making a comeback, the ECB is struggling to get a grip on the long end despite QE, although the most recent dip in oil prices, if sustained should help to dampen inflation concerns somewhat and base effects should see headline rates peaking in Q1 this year, before falling back somewhat. The local calendar has U.K. trade and production data, as well as a German 10-year Bund sale, but markets will be looking mainly to Trump’s eagerly awaited press conference.

FX Update: Forex markets have been hunkering down ahead of the U.S. president-elect Trump’s press conference, his first since the election, scheduled later on Wednesday, looking for some clarity on the political and fiscal agendas of the incoming administration. USD-JPY has settled around 116.00, above last week’s one-month low at 115.07, and below the pre-Christmas trend high at 118.66. EUR-USD has become entrenched in a narrow orbit of 1.0550, holding just below the 50-day moving average at 1.0571. We see Trump’s conference as something of a wildcard, though there is a chance he will manage to reignite the Trumpflation rally. This would follow bond guru Gross remarks of yesterday, where he argued that a sustained break in the U.S. T-note yield above 2.60% — which Gross reckons is much more important than Dow 20,000, $60-a-barrel oil or parity in EUR-USD — would mark the beginning of a “secular bear bond market.” Such a scenario would fuel another upward adjustment in dollar valuations against most other currencies.

Kuroda and Abe meet: BOJ’s Kuroda says meeting with Abe was a regular one and they discussed the global economy, specifically the US economy. They touched on Trump but no actual reference was made to the president-elect and both see the US economy growing “steadily”. No reference or report on the FOMC rate hike cycle. USDJPY continues to pivot around the 116.00 handle.

Overnight Data: The U.S. wholesale report was modestly disappointing, with a 0.4% November sales rise after a downwardly-revised 1.1% (was 1.4%) price-led October surge, alongside a 1.0% inventory gain that exceeded the 0.9% increase in the advance indicators report, following a 0.1% drop in October. Wholesale sales undershot inventories in November but are still outpacing inventories overall in Q4 as oil prices rebound, following Q3 weakening in both sales and inventories. The Q4 GDP growth estimate has increased slightly to 1.6% from 1.5%, but this trims Q1 GDP estimate to 2.3% from 2.4%. Expectations are now for a $14 (was $10) bln inventory addition and a still-lean $21 bln accumulation rate that extends the $16.5 bln bounce in Q3, as inventories are now reversing a big five quarter inventory headwind that culminated in a $9.5 bln liquidation rate in Q2. U.S. JOLTS report showed job openings rose 71k to 5,522k in November after dropping 180k to 5,451k (revised down from 5,534k). The rate edged up to 3.7% from 3.6% (revised from 3.7%). November hirings rose 59k to 5,219k following the 39k increase to 5,160k (revised from 5,099k). The rate was steady at 3.6% (October was revised up from 3.5%). Quitters rebounded 41k to 3,064k from -29k to 3,023k (revised from 2,986k). The rate was unchanged at 2.1%. The JOLTS report is an important one to Fed Chair Yellen, but this is rather old news for the markets and hence didn’t move the ticker.

Fedspeak: Fed hawk Lacker announced his retirement for October 1 on the Richmond Fed’s website. He’s been the bank’s president since August 2004, but has been with the Richmond Fed since 1989. He has also been a serial dissenter, opposing the consensus in all of his voting turns. In his last stint in 2015 he dissented twice against the consensus unchanged policy stance. And back in 2012 he opposed the FOMC’s outcome in all 8 meetings. He was the lone opponent in 2009, but it was with respect to QE and the purchase of Treasuries. But back in 2006 he dissented four times, each for a 25 bp hike. There’s going to be a lot of turnover at the Fed during Mr. Trump’s administration. He has two open governorships, while Atlanta Fed’s Lockhart already announced he’ll be stepping down in February. Meanwhile, Chair Yellen has indicated she plans to continue through her term which ends early in 2018.

Main Macro Events Today

Donald Trump Press Conference – Scheduled for 16;00 GMT. No a data release but by far the most significant event of the day. A wide ranging event is expected including Tax reform, immigration controls and reference to the Wall and climate change. Of particular interest to traders will be the incoming administrations (Mr Trump specifically) approach to trade and the impact particularly on the Mexican and Chinese currencies. Trade War Round 1?


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Stuart Cowell
Market Analyst
Hot-Forex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 12th January 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 12th January 2017.

FX News Today

European Outlook: Stock markets headed south in Asia overnight, with Japan underperforming and the Nikkei closing with a 1.19% loss as the strength of the yen weighed on exporters. The first press conference of the incoming U.S. administration disappointed and initially sparked a fresh bout of volatility, with investors taking a wait and see stance now to get a clearer picture of what lies in store going ahead. U.S. and U.K. stock futures are also heading south and the Bund future, which outperformed yesterday, lost much of its gains during the PM session. Eurozone spreads narrowed yesterday and the German yield curve flattened as the short end underperformed, while the U.K. yield curve steepened on short end outperformance. Today’s calendar has the first estimate of German 2016 GDP, seen at 1.9%, up from 1.7% in 2015. The calendar also has Eurozone production data for November, as well as the final reading of French December HICP and the ECB’s minutes for the Dec meeting.

The Dollar got Donalded: Trump conducted a test of the intelligence community by having a meeting with those agencies without letting any of his staff know and news of that meeting was subsequently leaked, he said. That would certainly explain his skepticism about the intelligence community’s motivations and secrecy. His conference roamed wildly across the range from fake news, to reaffirming the Mexico wall will remain an urgent priority (the peso plunged through 22.0), along with the relationship with Russia, Pharma pricing, hacking protections, the Trump Trust, Veteran’s affairs, etc. The conference was wide ranging and characteristically frank, leaving the press on their heels and markets chomping in ranges, but not essentially charting a new course. He was all rather vague and the markets reacted accordingly, the USD fell from its heady heights and continued to decline overnight. EURUSD sits at 1.0630, USDJPY under 114.50 (at one month lows) and Cable over 1.2240.

Carney: BoE Governor Carney said Brexit-related risks have “gone down” during testimony, in terms of what he described as the immediate scale of risks, before a parliamentary select committee. However, he warned that a disorderly Brexit process, where there is no transitional arrangements, could lead to “unforeseeable moves in markets.”

Fedspeak: NY Fed’s Dudley spoke on reforming the culture in banking, in his written text on “Remarks at the Culture Imperative — An Interbank Symposium.” He noted the NY Fed was prompted to work on this issue after the LIBOR manipulations and misconduct highlighted the importance of culture. He believes evidence points to an industry wide problem, across firms and countries. Also, he stressed that reforms must be industry driven, while not denying the importance of regulation. He did not discuss monetary policy.

Main Macro Events Today

German 2016 GDP The first estimate for full year 2016 GDP is as usual released before the Q4 numbers are out, but with expectations for a robust fourth quarter growth rate, is widely seen at 1.9%, up from 1.7% in the previous year. The numbers will confirm that Germany is on a solid growth path, and confidence indicators suggest that this will remain the case in the first quarter this year, although going ahead, there are numerous downside risk.

US Import & Export Prices December trade price data should reveal a 0.7% increase for headline import prices and a 0.2% decline for export prices on the month. This follows respective November figures which had import prices down 0.3% with export prices down 0.1% for the month. Oil prices resumed there rebound in December so there is some upside risk to import prices.

US Initial Jobless Claims Initial claims data for the week of January should reveal a 252k headline, up from last week’s 235k which marked a low extending all the way back to the1970’s. Claims are expected to average 258k in January, about matching December’s 257k average and up from 252k in November.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Stuart Cowell
Market Analyst
Hot-Forex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 13th January 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 13th January 2017.

FX News Today

European Outlook: Aftershocks from President-elect Trump’s campaign-like press conference, which had weighed on global stock markets and yields started to recede late in the U.S. session and U.S. equities managed to recover part of their losses. Asian markets rebounded led by Japan as the Yen weakened and U.S. and U.K. stock futures are also higher, while the front end Nymex future is trading around USD 53 per barrel. Bund futures already started to head south in the after hour session yesterday and core yields are likely to move higher in early trade. The European calendar only has the BoE’s credit conditions survey and the final reading for Spanish December HICP, leaving markets to focus on global developments.

FX Update: The dollar is trading softer into the London open, but remains comfortably above the post-Trump press conference lows. USD-JPY has ebbed to the upper 114s after failing to sustain gains above 115.00, but remains over a big figure up on yesterday’s one-month low at 113.75. EURUSD has firmed up to around 1.0630 after logging an intraday low in Asia at 1.0603, but still remains some 50 pips below yesterday’s one-month peak. While doubts have now crept in about U.S. president-elect Trump’s reflation plans following his fractious press conference on Wednesday, returning some support to the dollar have been Fed speakers, who were not been shy yesterday in warning of upside risks to policy in 2017, with the debate hottest over how quickly to hike rather than when to do so. Another batch of U.S. data today will help shape Fed policy expectations, though Trump may have his work cut out to reignite the sputtering Trumpflation trade.

U.S. Reports revealed surprising firmness in December export prices alongside a restrained oil-boost to import prices, and a largely expected 10k rise in initial claims to a still-firm 247k that signals a tight start for 2017. For trade prices, the relative firmness in export versus import prices trimmed Q4 GDP growth prospects, though we left our estimate at 1.6%. For claims, gyrations through the New Year’s week can be attributed to holiday volatility, though we’re encouraged that claims are starting January below the 258k December average. Next week’s BLS survey week reading will likely undershoot the 275k December BLS survey week figure. We expect a 180k January nonfarm payroll rise that matches the average monthly gain in 2016, though this average faces a likely downward bump with the next report’s annual revisions.

Fedspeak: Chair Yellen’s speech contained surprises and keynote comment was that sh e thought “short term I would say I don’t think there are serious obstacles. I see the economy as doing quite well” Fed’s Bullard maintained a rather circumspect outlook on policy and the economy. He projects only limited movement in rates, reiterating his views noted earlier of perhaps only 1 tightening this year and noting there is little reason to alter policy as the Fed nears its goals. There shouldn’t be any undue pick up in inflation. Job growth is likely to slow this year and next. And in terms of the new administration’s policies, he said it’s questionable what will actually occur. Bullard is not a voter this year. Kaplan: Fed should be removing accommodation in 2017, with growth forecast at greater than 2%, even without any fiscal boost. The U.S. is pretty near full employment and inflation is heading to 2%, though there’s some slack in the labor market and more demand than supply for skilled workers. He expects regulatory review and tax reform to help boost productivity, along with infrastructure investment. Kaplan said he will be scrutinizing decisions on trade, immigration and Obamacare for any impact on growth, while manufacturing plants need to be allowed flexibility in supply chains. This about par for the course, with the Fed evidently predisposed to normalize rates in 2017 all else equal.

Main Macro Events Today

US Retail Sales – December retail sales data is out today expectations are for a 0.7% headline with the ex-autos aggregate up median 0.5% on the month. This follows November data which had the headline up 0.1% and ex-autos up 0.2%.

US PPI Data – December PPI data has expectations to post a 0.3% with the core index up 0.2% on the month. This compares to respective November figures which posted a 0.4% headline and a 0.4% increase for the core. Despite the fact that oil prices remain at depressed levels we did see a 14.0% climb in WTI prices in December which could lend some support to the headline.

US Michigan Consumer Sentiment – The first release on January Michigan Sentiment should reveal a headline increase to 98.5 (median 98.4) from 98.2 in December and 93.8 in November. Consumer confidence measures have been posting improvements since the election and the January IBD/TIPP poll has already reveal an increase for the month with a rise to 55.6 from 54.8 in December.



Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Stuart Cowell
Market Analyst
Hot-Forex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 16th January 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 16th January 2017.

Main Macro Events This Week

U.S. markets are closed Monday for Martin Luther King Day. This will be a busy week for traders, with the inauguration of president-elect Trump on Friday headlining. While that won’t be market moving in and of itself, investors and traders anxiously await clarity his ambitious agenda to be outlined in his 100-day plan once he assumes office.

United States: This week’s data calendar is busy and includes several important releases. The December CPI report (Wednesday) will be key after the surge in the inflation expectations. Also on tap this week is December industrial production (Wednesday). The Empire State data (Tuesday) and The Philly Fed reading (Thursday) will be watched closed as these are as close to real time indicators as possible. December housing starts (Thursday) and other data this week includes the January NAHB homebuilder sentiment survey (Wednesday), and November Treasury capital flows (Wednesday).

Fedspeak: Considerable Fed presence this week; Chair Yellen will make two appearances (Wednesday & Thursday), Dudley (Tuesday). Dallas Fed’s Kaplan, Minneapolis Fed’s Kashkari both (Wednesday). Fed’s Harker, a voter, speaks on the economic outlook (Friday). Also, Williams will give closing remarks (Friday) at the Bay Area Council meeting. Meanwhile, the Fed releases its Beige Book (Wednesday) for the January 31, February 1 FOMC meeting. It will be interesting to see what references are made regarding the post-Trump surge in equities and the pick-up in several of the manufacturing and sentiment numbers.

Canada: The main event is the Bank of Canada’s rate announcement and Monetary Policy Report (Wednesday). Expectations are for no change to the 0.50% rate. Manufacturing (Thursday) is expected to reveal a 1.0% rise in shipments after the 0.8% drop in October. The December CPI (Friday) is projected to be unchanged. Retail sales (Friday) are expected to rise 0.5% in November after the 1.1% gain in October.

Europe: The focus this week is on the first ECB meeting of the year. Draghi is widely expected to keep policy on hold. German PPI inflation (Friday) is expected to jump to a 0.9% y/y clip from 0.1% y/y, and the data will confirm that for at least Germany. German ZEW Economic Sentiment for January is due (Tuesday) and is expected to see the headline rate rise to 18.0 from 13.8 in December. Other data releases include Eurozone trade and BoP numbers for December, which will be too backward looking to change the overall outlook.

UK: December inflation data (Tuesday), labour market figures covering November and December (Wednesday), and official December retail sales (Friday). Carney speaks Monday and PM May on Wednesday at Davos; these two could be fundamental to the performance of Sterling this week.

China: Releases are back loaded to Friday. Q4 GDP highlights and is expected to print a 6.7% y/y rate, unchanged from Q3 clip. In fact, 6.7% has been the reported rate of growth for each of the three quarters of 2016 so far. December industrial output is forecast at 6.0% y/y, slightly slower than the 6.2% seen previously, and would be the slowest since July. December retail sales are penciled in at a still robust 10.6% y/y from 10.8% in November. And, December fixed investment is seen at a 8.2% y/y rate, little changed from 8.3% previously.

Japan: Revised November industrial production is due (Tuesday), having originally posted a 1.5% monthly gain.

Australia: The calendar has the employment report (Thursday), expected to reveal a 15.0k gain in December following the 39.1k rise in November. The unemployment rate is seen steady at 5.7%. Housing finance (Tuesday) is projected to fall 2.0% m/m in November after the 0.8% decline in October. There is nothing from the Reserve Bank of Australia.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work


Stuart Cowell
Market Analyst
Hot-Forex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 17th January 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 16th January 2017.

FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets were mixed, with Japan and ASX heading south amid reports that U.K. Prime Minister May will announce plans for a hard Brexit at today’s keynote speech. Yen strength is also continuing to put pressure on the Japanese markets. Mainland Chinese markets meanwhile mostly managed to pair losses in late trade and the CSI 300 is currently unchanged on the day while the Hang Seng is up 0.48%.Oil prices are little changed on the day, with the front end WTI future trading at USD 52.30 per barrel and Gold benefiting from the risk on mood trading at USD 1212. U.S. and U.K. stock futures are also down, after European markets already closed in the red yesterday, while core bond yields came off, with Sterling weakness for once not weighing on Gilt futures, which outperformed yesterday as inflation considerations are balanced with the risks of weaker growth going ahead as the U.K. seems to be heading for an exit from the single market. May’s speech aside today’s calendar includes U.K. inflation data for December, as well as German ZEW investor confidence (see below)

Canada Home Sales: Existing home sales improved 2.2% m/m in December after the 5.3% tumble in November’s seasonally adjusted home sales. The pull-back in November was the largest one month decline in 4 years and corresponded with the implementation of tightened mortgage regulations. The increase in December is contrary to expectations for another decline. But total actual (not seasonally adjusted sales) fell 5.0% compared to the level in December of 2015. New listing fell 3.0% in December versus November. Prices continued to climb on an annual basis: the MLS HPI was 14.2% higher y/y in December while the national average sales price grew 3.5% y/y.

Davos Speak: (From the BBC) – The big draw at the World Economic Forum in Davos today is Chinese president Xi Jinping who will officially open the event this morning. It is the first time a leader from China has attended the event. Early afternoon, Anthony Scaramucci, a member of US president-elect Donald Trump’s transition team, will talk about the outlook for America. Shortly afterwards, the outgoing US secretary of state, John Kerry, will discuss “diplomacy in an era of disruption”. Then Satya Nadella, the chief executive of Microsoft, will tackle the issue of artificial intelligence alongside Zhang Ya-Qin, boss of China search engine giant Baidu. Other highlights include The Future of Finance: John Cryan, the boss of the troubled Deutsche Bank takes part in a panel discussion on where now for the industry and Nobel Prize winning economist Joseph Stiglitz will examine how to end corruption.

ECB’s Praet: ECB policy was focused on avoiding deflation trap. The Executive Board member said at a conference in Paris late yesterday that the “when you have a very slow growth rate with an increase in unemployment for a long period of time, you get into a sort of vicious circle. You have to use the tools that you have to support demand”. Praet said that “it has been key from the central bank point of view to avoid the de-anchoring of inflation expectations” with ECB policy “driven by the mandate and by avoiding that we fall into a sort of deflationary trap”.

Main Macro Events Today

UK CPI & PPI – 09:30 GMT – YoY UK CPI data is expected to increase to 1.4% from 1.2% last time, with the Core figure up to 1.5% from 1.4%. MoM for December expected to increase to 0.3% from 0.2%. PPI figures also released at the same time this morning with input figures expected to increase to 2.2% from -1.1% last time and output figures expected to increase to 0.3% for 0.0% last time.
German ZEW – 10:00 GMT – December expected to see the headline rate rise to 18.0 from 13.8 in December. This would be consistent with a quarterly growth rate of 0.4% in the first quarter of this year after a broadly similar number in Q4 2016.
UK PM May Speech – 11:45 GMT – Expected to outline 12 key points for UK’s exit from the EU. No “half in, half out measures”. Prerelease of speech from Downing Street overnight.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Stuart Cowell
Market Analyst
Hot-Forex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 18th January 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 18th January 2017.

FX News Today

European Outlook: Stock markets continued to stabilise during the Asian session, and the Nikkei closed with a 0.43% gain as the Yen retreated and markets started to shake off the most recent Trump jitters while the Dollar stabilised. Hong Kong outperformed and most Chinese shares gained amid speculated state intervention to ensure more stability as President Xi Jinping visits Davos for the World Economic Forum. U.S. and U.K. stock futures are also higher. The FTSE 100 underperformed yesterday as the Pound bounced back from recent lows, following May’s Brexit speech, but Sterling is already retreating again and this is helping the FTSE to win back lost ground, which could see yields picking up again today, especially as the Bund future already started to come off highs going into yesterday’s close and today’s final German and EMU inflation data for December and UK labour data. Oil held over $52 and GOLD continued in positive mood around the key $1212 level.

German HICP confirmed at 1.7% y/y, as expected, with prices up 1.0% m/m. The sharp acceleration from just 0.7% y/y in November was mainly due to base effects from lower energy prices and the breakdown showed that prices for heating oil jumped 21.9% y/y in December, after still falling -6.7% y/y in the previous month. Petrol prices rose 6.0% y/y, after falling -2.2% y/y in December. Still, even excluding household energy and petrol, the annual rate jumped to 1.6% from 1.2% in November and the data will back the critics of Draghi’s expansionary policy in Germany. The Eurozone headline rate, due later today, remains lower, but at 1.1% has also been trending higher – at least for now. But with growth picking up and the labor markets improving, there is the risk of second round effects, especially in areas where wage indexation still remains in place.

UK PM May Speech: UK PM confirmed that Brexit really does mean Brexit, setting a course for the UK to make a “clean” break from the EU, meaning a departure from single market membership and the customs union. That is the bottom line from her long-awaited, platitude -laden (Britain to be “truly global … profoundly internationalist” etc etc) keynote speech that is laying the government’s four principles and 12 negotiation priorities for Brexit. Among the highlights, May confirmed that the Brexit deal will be subject to parliamentary approval, which should not be too much of a surprise but has still gone down well in markets, sparking a rally in the pound, which has built on gains seen after hotter than expected UK inflation data earlier. Cable rallied by 3% at seven week highs above 1.2400, putting in some distance from Mondays’ three-month lows that were seen just under 1.2000.

US Data: The Empire State headline drop to 6.5 trimmed the December surge to an 8-month high of 7.6 (was 9.0) from 2.2 (was 1.5) in November and a pre-election -5.5 (was -6.8) in October, leaving a big net climb despite the January setback. And, the component data beat estimates to leave an ISM-adjusted Empire State rise to 50.7 from 48.8 (was 48.9) in December, 47.3 (was 47.2) in November, and 46.9 (was 46.3) in October, with small annual revisions that did little to alter the trajectory. We expect a January Philly Fed drop-back to 14.0 after the December spike to a 2-year high of 19.7, a Richmond Fed drop to 7.0 from 8.0, a Dallas Fed rise to 16.0 from 15.5, a Chicago PMI rise to 55.0 from 54.6, an ISM downtick to 54.5 from a 2-year high of 54.7, and an ISM-NMI downtick to 57.0 from a 1-year high of 57.2 over the past two months. The mix should allow the ISM-adjusted average of the major surveys to rise to a 2-year high of 54 in January from 53 in November and December, 51 in October and 50 in August and September.

FedSpeak: Fed governor Brainard said more rapid rate hikes are likely if fiscal policy changes quickly eliminate labor market slack, but a gradual path of rate hikes will be appropriate so long as inflationary pressures are muted. She sees fiscal change that persistently raises aggregate demand alone could reduce the ability of fiscal policy to respond to future shock. Brainard views risks for the domestic economy as closer to balanced than they have been in a long time, while full employment remains in reach and could be sustainable with the right policy mix. Like the risks she cites, her views are pretty balanced. NY Fed dove Dudley is optimistic about the U.S. expansion, expecting it to continue, though “long in the tooth.” He doesn’t think Fed action will snuff out the expansion anytime soon as inflation is not a problem. He sees pressure on labor resources increasing, but quite slowly, while dollar strength will pressure import prices lower and limit domestic producers from raising prices. Dudley sees household finances in unusually good shape at this stage in the cycle, while challenges in retail are not due to aggregate demand but changing consumer demands.

Davos Speak: (from BBC) IMF managing director Christine Lagarde will discuss Squeezed and Angry: How to Fix the Middle Class Crisis along with renowned economist Larry Summers who served in the Obama administration. Government ministers from UAE, Egypt and Tunisia will examine The Future of Arab Economies. Economists Kenneth Rogoff, Joseph Stiglitz and Larry Summers are part of a discussion on Economics for the Global Commons. Pierre Moscovici, the European Commissioner for economic and financial affairs, taxation and customers will be involved in a discussion on The European Disunion. Joe Biden, US VP for just two more days, will give a special address at the forum this morning. And in the afternoon Al Gore will talk about climate change. Of interest will be an interview with Jack Ma, founder of China’s internet giant Alibaba.

Main Macro Events Today

Yellen Speech – (20:00 GMT) – “The Goals of Monetary Policy and How We Pursue Them” at the Commonwealth Club, in San Francisco. Possible policy implications ahead of Trump inauguration on Friday.

US CPI – The December headline CPI is expected to grow 0.3%, while the core index rises 0.2%.Forecast risk: downward, as oil prices gave up some of their gains in November.Market risk: downward, as inflation undershoots may affect the timing of additional rate hikes. Energy prices are expected to remain flat, with a 1% gasoline price increase. Food prices have risen by 0.1%-0.4% per month over the past three years, though the drought in California had an upward effect with last year’s 0.5% May rise being the largest since August of 2011.

BOC Rate Decision – The consensus outlook is no change to the 0.50% rate setting today alongside a cautiously constructive view of the growth and inflation outlook. The base-case policy assumption remains for no change in rates this year, followed by an eventual shift to modest rate increases by the middle of 2018.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Stuart Cowell
Market Analyst
Hot-Forex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 19th January 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 19th January 2017.

FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets traded mixed, with Japan and ASX moving higher, as Fed’s Yellen said she expects to hike rates few times a year through 2019 to 3% neutral rate. The weaker Yen helped to underpin Nikkei and Topix, while the drop in energy prices added to pressure on Chinese stocks with energy producers and miners leading the way down. The front end WTI future has lifted somewhat, but remains firmly below USD 52 per barrel. U.S. stock futures are also down, while FTSE 100 futures are posting gains, despite a stronger Pound. In Europe the focus turns to today’s ECB announcement, where Draghi is widely expected to keep policy on hold and will be under pressure to defend the ECB’s QE extension as inflation lifts higher and growth remains strong. The calendar also has Swiss producer price inflation and Eurozone BoP and current account data for November.

BOC: Larger Question Marks on the Outlook; The Bank of Canada delivered the widely expected lack of change to the 0.50% rate setting alongside a modestly more upbeat domestic and global growth outlook. The outlook is largely similar to October, but the degree of uncertainty has increased according to Governor Poloz. Hence, the Governor, in his Q&A, said that a rate hike remains on the table. While the outlook remains very uncertain, consensus is to see no change in rates for an extended period as the most sensible base-case policy scenario.

Fed Chair Yellen: Said she can’t give the timing of the next hike, but noted the Fed is close to meeting its twin goals, in her comments at The Commonwealth Club. As suggested by the outcome of the December FOMC meeting and the dot-plot, she noted that she and most of her colleagues expect “a few” rate hikes a year. The next tightening will be a function of the economy over the coming months (that suggests a March move is unlikely). It makes sense for the Fed to gradually reduce monetary policy support.

US Data: U.S. reports revealed a hefty 0.8% December industrial production rise thanks to a 6.6% utility output surge that reversed the prior 9.7% weather-induced 3-month drop, alongside a 1.8% vehicle assembly rate bounce before a likely January drop-off, and a 0.7% business equipment rise that reversed a 0.7% November decline. Expectations are for a resumption of positive industrial production growth in 2017 led by a 2.4% Q1 clip, after a 0.6% weather-induced Q4 contraction rate that left a 7th decline over the last 9 quarters. We also saw the expected December CPI headline gain of 0.3% (0.282%), though the core price rise of 0.2% rounded down from a surprisingly firm 0.230% gain that sets the tone for bigger price gains in 2017.

Davos Speak: (from the BBC) Bills Winters and Briyan Moynihan, of Standard Chartered and Bank of America respectively, will be part of a panel examining the Global Banking Outlook.–Santander chairwoman Ana Botin forms part of a discussion on Which Europe Now?-Sheryl Sandberg, chief operating officer of Facebook, will discuss A Leader’s Resilience. Sergey Brin, co-founder of Google and founder of Bayshore Global Management, will be sharing his ideas. Bill Gates and GSK boss Andrew Witty take part in a discussion on CEPI: A Global Initiative to Fight Epidemics. Saudi Arabia and Russia will discuss the Global Energy Outlook. The UK PM Theresa May will pitch her Brexit plan to leaders and the Russian deputy PM Igor Shuvalov will talk about Russia’s place in the world.

Main Macro Events Today

ECB Rate & Statement – ECB is widely expected to keep policy on hold after clarifying the policy outlook through to the end of the year, with purchase targets cut back to EUR 60 bln again from April. The ECB obviously tried to create some stability at least on the monetary front amid heightened uncertainty on the political front ahead of the Brexit talks and amid the change in U.S. administration. However, with inflation jumping higher, the central bank’s policy is coming under more scrutiny again and much of the press conference will likely be an exercise in trying to play down the importance of the rise in HICP to the highest level since 2013 as the ECB is heading for a further expansion of its balance.


US Housing Starts – Should reveal an increase in the pace of starts to 1,184k from 1,090k in November and a recent high 1,340k in October. Permits should climb to a 1,230k pace from 1,212k in November and completions should be 1,100k from 1,216k in November.

US Phili Fed Index – Should reveal a headline decline to 15.1 from 19.7 in December and 8.7 in November. Revisions to the Philly Fed were released last week and lowered December’s headline slightly. More broadly, producer sentiment is expected to remain firm in January with the ISM-adjusted average of all measures rising to 54 from 53 in December.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Stuart Cowell
Market Analyst
Hot-Forex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 20th January 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 20th January 2017.

FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets were mixed overnight, after U.S. and European shares closed in the red Thursday. Japan and mainland China bourses managed to move higher (Chinese GDP beat expectations at 6.8%), but investors are cautious ahead of the inauguration of President elect Donald Trump. Bund futures managed to move up from lows yesterday, after Draghi re-affirmed the central bank’s commitment to further QE and kept the easing bias in place, despite the jump in inflation, but yields still moved higher and the DAX closed in negative territory yesterday. Gilts and FTSE 100 underperformed. Today’s European calendar is pretty quiet, with only German PPI at the start of the session and U.K. retail sales, which will leave the focus firmly on the U.S.

German PPI inflation jumped to 1.0% y/y in December from 0.1% y/y in the previous month. Not a total surprise considering the sharp acceleration in import price inflation previously and the pick up in HICP that month. Still, the numbers serve to highlight that the rebound in inflation is well and truly underway, even if producer prices remain the main driving factor so far. Indeed, the breakdown showed that energy prices were up 0.2% y/y, after falling -1.7% in the previous month, while non-durable goods prices jumped 2.1% y/y, after 1.5% y/y in November. With growth continuing strong, however, and the labour market looking very tight, while house price inflation is also picking up sharply, the risk of second round inflation effects are rising at least in Germany, although for now that doesn’t seem to impress Draghi too much, who yesterday confirmed the ECB expansionary course for the year.

FX Update: The dollar has settled moderately lower, by about 0.2% versus the other majors, as markets brace for Trump’s inauguration later today, hungry for further detail on his plans for fiscal and trade policies. USD-JPY has ebbed back under 115.00 after rallying strongly over the previous two days. Resistance is marked at 115.31, which marks the present situation of the 50-day moving average. The 20-day average is at 115.65. EURUSD has recouped to the upper 1.06s, about a big figure up on yesterday’s low at 1.0589. Cable has settled around 1.2350, also about a big figure higher relative to yesterday’s low while remaining below the week’s high at 1.2616 and the 50-day moving average, at 1.2400.

BOC: Fed Chair Yellen: She was less hawkish yesterday and toned down her earlier policy stance. “Gradual monetary adjustments were prudent”, although she warned against letting the economy run hot. Yet on Wednesday she had cautioned that waiting too long to raise rates could lead to “too much inflation, financial instability, or both,” amid comments by other Fed officials that also favoured faster hikes.

Main Macro Events Today

UK Retail Sales – Expectations are for a YoY to increase to 7.3% with a flat December at 0.2%.

Canada CPI – Expectations are for unchanged (0.0%) in December versus November, contrasting with what is usually a sizable pull-back in this not seasonally adjusted index during December. Our projection for the steady reading on December month comparable CPI is due to the collision of the typical seasonal decline with a hefty increase in gasoline prices. Total CPI is seen accelerating to a 1.7% y/y pace in December from 1.2% in November.

President Trump Speech – 14:00 GMT – Expect the unexpected.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Stuart Cowell
Market Analyst
Hot-Forex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 23rd January 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 23rd January 2017.

FX News Today

President Trump has his feet under the desk in the Oval office and the tone of his inaugural speech and actions over the weekend reiterated his campaign themes to “Make America Great Again”. The unapologetic dogmatic “America First” rhetoric caused markets to pause on protectionism and trade barriers. The media once gain came under scrutiny over claim and counter claim from the new administration for attendances at the inauguration, and the women’s led demonstrations on Saturday. The NAFTA came under immediate review, the new Presidents tax returns will not be released “People didn’t care. They voted for him” (Kellyanne Conway) and the USD sold off significantly at the beginning of the new trading week.

United States: The week starts with existing home sales (Tuesday) forecast to rise just 0.2% to 5.62 mln in December following the 0.7% gain in November. The MBA mortgage market report (Wednesday) is due, alongside the EIA energy inventory report. The Advance trade report is forecast (Thursday) to show wider deficit to the tune of $65.7 bln in December, while the Chicago Fed national activity index is on tap, along with an expected 20k rebound in initial jobless claims to 254k for the week ended January 21. New home sales are expected to sink 2.0% to a 580k unit pace in December. Advance Q4 GDP is projected to sink to 2.0% from 3.5% in Q3 (Friday), Durable goods orders are expected to rebound 2.5% in December vs -4.5% previously and final Michigan sentiment is seen revised up to 98.5 in January from 98.1 initially.

Fedspeak runs dry this week after the flurry from Yellen and company last week, though it is entirely possible that some impromptu remarks could be forthcoming. Overall, even the doves now appear wary of unleashing fiscal stimulus with the jobless rate down at 4.7% and core CPI inflation topping 2.2% y/y — levels that Yellen suggested are consistent with the Fed’s twin goals.

Canada: Wholesale shipments (Monday) are expected to rise 0.5% in November after the 1.1% gain in October. The establishment survey (Thursday) is expected to reveal a 0.1% gain in average weekly earnings during November after the 0.1% dip in October. There is nothing from the Bank of Canada this week. Governor Poloz delivers a speech at the University of Alberta School of Business on January 31.

Europe: Eurozone markets will be looking to the U.S. this week, as investors await more guidance on U.S. economic policies going ahead, but also on the future relationship between Europe and the U.S. and the implications for Nato. Eurozone Manufacturing PMI predicts a rise to 55.0 from 54.9, while we see the services reading at 53.7, which should lift the composite to 54.5 from 54.4. French business confidence is seen steady at 106, and the German Ifo Business Climate reading is expected to rise to 111.3 from 111.0 in December

UK: PM May last week at a long-awaited keynote speech on Brexit set the course for the UK to make a “clean break” from the EU. This cleared up a chunk of uncertainty, helping put a floor under the beleaguered pound. Cable rallied by just over 3% in the wake of the speech last Tuesday, helped on its way by a spike in CPI data, in what was the biggest single-day rally the pound has seen since 2008. May will also be the first foreign leader to meet with the new USA President this week. January CBI industrial trends and distributive trades surveys (Tuesday and Wednesday, respectively). The first estimate of Q4 GDP is also up (Wednesday), growth of 0.5% q/q and 2.1% y/y is expected, which would be slightly off the 0.6% and 2.2% pace of Q3. Overall, as-expected outcomes in the data should not have much impact on sterling markets.

China: The docket is empty.

Japan: The December trade balance (Wednesday) should reveal a wider surplus, to JPY 400.0 bln from 150.8 bln in November. December services PPI are penciled in at up 0.3% from the 0.2% increase previously. December national overall CPI (Friday) is seen up 0.1% y/y, down from 0.5% previously. Core CPI is expected at -0.4% y/y, unchanged from November.

Australia: The calendar is highlighted by the CPI (Wednesday), expected to gain 0.6% in Q4 after the 0.7% gain in Q3. The Q4 PPI and trade prices for Q4 are due on Friday. The Reserve Bank of Australia’s schedule remains empty this week, with nothing due from the bank until the meeting in early February.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Stuart Cowell
Market Analyst
Hot-Forex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 24th January 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 24th January 2017.

FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets were mixed overnight, with Japanese bourses still under pressure (Nikkei closed down 0.55%). despite a dip in the Yen, as USD stabilised. Uncertainty over Trump’s regulatory and trade policies continues to weigh on investor sentiment. News that the U.S. plans to withdraw from the Pacific Rim trade pact, known as Trans-Pascific Partnership and that Trump plans to renegotiate the North American Free Trade Agreement is not helping as a lack of key data on Monday kept markets focused on politics. U.S. stock futures are narrowly mixed, while FTSE 100 futures are slightly higher, as Sterling retreated from yesterday’s high. Oil prices are slightly up on the day and the front end WTI future is trading around USD 53 per barrel and Gold holds on to gains at USD 1215. FTSE 100 futures moving slightly higher Bund futures could lose some of yesterday’s gains in opening trade. The calendar has January PMI readings for the Eurozone as well as U.K. public finance data and a final decision from the Supreme Court on EU membership.

FX Update: The dollar found its feet after declining over the last day. USDJPY traded back around the 113.00 level after logging an eight-week low at 112.52 during the early phase of the Asia-Pacific session. Investor worries over a more protectionist U.S. weighed on the dollar, with Trump pulling the nation out of TPP and warning U.S. manufacturers there will be punitive taxes on any goods they make abroad and are sold in the U.S. Japanese preliminary January manufacturing PMI surpassed expectations, but cast little market impact. EURUSD drifted under 1.0750 after making a 1.0772 seven-week high in early Asia-Pacific. Cable ebbed under 1.2500, leaving a six-week peak at 1.2544. AUDUSD and NZDUSD settled lower after logging respective 10-week highs, and USDCAD based after seeing a four-session low.

Trump Executive Orders Signed: 1) formal withdrawal from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) 2) hiring freeze on federal employees and 3) a ban on U.S. NGOs that receive federal funding from providing abortions abroad. Stocks and yields continue to retrace lower, along with the dollar index as the markets adjust to the new era of unilateralism and activism in the executive branch.

Fedspeak: Fed hawk Lacker worries that the FOMC could be getting behind the curve, in an interview on a public radio station in Virginia. He wants the Fed to be a little more aggressive in pushing up rates, versus the views of his colleagues, with the majority on the FOMC projecting 3 quarter-point increases. They are also advocating a very gradual approach to tightening. Note that Lacker is not a voter this year, and has announced he’ll retire on October 1. Fedspeak will go into hibernation today as the informal pre-FOMC blackout period goes into effect.

Main Macro Events Today

Eurozone PMI’s – Modest improvements across the board are expected following the uptick in the ZEW number. Forecast for the Eurozone Manufacturing PMI predicts a rise to 55.0 from 54.9, while the services reading at 53.7, which should lift the composite to 54.5 from 54.4 and leave projections for robust growth in Q1 intact.

UK – EU Membership Court Ruling – The United Kingdom’s High Court is due to announce a ruling regarding the government’s ability to bypass parliament and initiate the Brexit by triggering Article 50 of Lisbon Treaty, at the Royal Courts of Justice, in London. The expectation is that the UK Parliament WILL have a vote on the procedures surrounding Article 50.

US Existing Home Sales – Forecast to rise just 0.2% to 5.62 mln in December following the 0.7% gain in November.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Stuart Cowell
Market Analyst
Hot-Forex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 25th January 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 25th January 2017.

FX News Today

European Outlook: Japanese stock markets moved higher, led by Japanese bourses as the country managed to snap a 14-month long run of falling exports, which helped the Nikkei to close with a 1.4% gain (over 19,057.5), despite a stronger Yen. Better than expected corporate earnings are underpinning a rise in global growth optimism that already saw U.S. and European bourses closing higher yesterday and continued to back markets in Asia and the rise in U.S. and FTSE 100 stock futures this morning. The broad improvement in stocks and amid a wider rise in risk appetite already sent yields higher on Tuesday and are likely to continue to put pressure on bond futures today, especially as survey indicators in the form of the German Ifo and the U.K. CBI industrial trends survey are expected to have improved again at the start of the year, with no signs so far that the looming Brexit is weighing on growth in Europe on either side of the channel. Australian Inflation rose to 1.5% from1.3% last quarter, but missed expectations (i.e. 1.6%). AUDUSD fell overnight from 0.7600 and currently trades at 0.7520.

US data: U.S. reports revealed a surprising 2.8% December existing home sales drop despite mild weather in November and early December that sometimes lifts sales with a lag, though Q4 sales overall were boosted by weather, and we have an upwardly-revised 5.65 (was 5.61) November cycle-high and a remarkably lean 1.65 mln December inventory level. The Richmond Fed rise to a 10-month high of 12.0 from 8.0 in December and 4.0 in November, as the producer sentiment climb gains steam with the ongoing factory sector rebound. An employment index bounce to 8.0 from -1.0 adds to the upside risk for our a 190k January nonfarm payroll estimate.

The UK’s Supreme Court ruled against the government in the Brexit case, concluding in the appeal trial that the notification of Article 50 must be subject to a parliamentary vote. The Court also ruled that Scotland and Northern Ireland do not have a veto. The government is now expected to quickly put through a succinctly-worded bill through the House of Parliament and the House of Lords. No one expects that either House will stand in the way of the will of the people, but the concern is that it will be subject to amendments, which could draw-out the start of the formal process that will take the UK out of the EU. The ruling on Scotland and Northern Ireland suggests that the government won’t face any obstacle in pushing through with its intention for a “hard” Brexit. The pound, already under pressure ahead of the ruling, extended losses, though has since recouped some lost ground. Sterling is presently showing an average 0.2% decline versus the G3 currencies.

US Treasury Secretary nominee Mnuchin said too-strong a dollar may hurt the economy in a letter to a Senator asking about a hypothetical 25%-dollar rise, according to a Bloomberg report late Monday. He said, “From time to time, an excessively strong dollar may have negative short-term implications on the economy.” That came in contrast to his confirmation testimony in which he said the “strong dollar is important over the long term,” though he considered it “very, very strong.” The report may have added to the dollar’s wobble yesterday, though it has since recovered from lows. It also suggested that Trump may hold off formally labeling China a “currency manipulator” until after consulting with them first.

Main Macro Events Today

German IFO – It is expected to show a further improvement in sentiment and a rise in the headline reading to 111.3 from 111.0 in December. ZEW investor confidence also improved at the start of the year and even if yesterday’s services reading was a tad weaker than hoped, it is clear that the German recovery remains intact for now, even if Brexit and global political risks mean there is heightened uncertainty going ahead.

New Zealand CPI- Quarterly Inflation figures expected to rise to 0.3% from 0.2% last time.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Stuart Cowell
Market Analyst
Hot-Forex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 26th January 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 26th January 2017.

FX News Today

European Outlook: The global stock rally continued in Asia overnight and the Nikkei closed with a 1.81% gain. The fact that the DOW managed to finally pass the 20000 mark has boosted investor confidence and banks, insurers and brokers led the Toix higher. Rising long term yields are creating a better climate also in Europe where the DAX managed to close above the 11800 mark Wednesday. U.K. and U.S. stock futures are still moving higher and further gains on bourses will likely keep upward pressure on yields and support a further steepening of the yield curve. The FTSE 100 is likely to continue to underperform as Sterling moves higher. OIl prices are also picking up and the front end WTI future is trading above USD 53 per barrel.

BOE Carney Risk in Fintech Boom: Reuters reported, the fast-growing financial technology (Fintech) sector could hold big “systemic risks” for the banking sector and the broader economy which need to be addressed by bank regulators around the world, Bank of England Governor Mark Carney said on Wednesday. “The challenge for policymakers is to ensure that Fintech develops in a way that maximises the opportunities and minimizes the risks for society,” Carney said in his speech. ” After all, the history of financial innovation is littered with examples that led to early booms, growing unintended consequences, and eventual busts.”

New Zealand: The dollar rose to a 2 ½ high after inflation climbed back into the Reserve Bank’s target band, effectively scrapping the prospect of further rate cuts. Government figures yesterday showed that CPI rose 0.4 per cent in the December quarter for an annual increase of 1.3 per cent as the recovery in global oil prices pushed up local petrol costs and as the rampant housing market continues to drive rapid house price gains. The local currency climbed as high as 73.12 US cents, the highest since November 9, and recently traded at 73.07 cents from 72.70 cents immediately before the release, while two-year swaps rose 4 basis points to 2.42 per cent.

German IFO: Unexpectedly drops in January. The headline reading fell to just 109.8 from 111.0 in the previous month, the lowest number since September. The decline was driven largely by a huge drop in expectations reading, which fell back to 103.2, the lowest since August and down from 105.5 in December. The current conditions indicator improved slightly to 116.9 from 116.7 in December. The breakdown showed that contrary to the improvement in the manufacturing PMI yesterday, the manufacturing reading in the Ifo declined, although this was in a broader down move across all sectors. The overall reading remains at high levels, consistent with ongoing growth, but at least the Ifo suggests that growth dynamics have slowed down somewhat at the start of the year.

Main Macro Events Today

UK GDP – Quarterly GDP figures expected to fall to 0.5% from 0.6% last time.

USD Home Sales – December new home sales data expected to show a 2.0% headline decrease to a 580k pace from 592k in November and 563k in October. Other housing measures have been mixed. The NAHB jumped to 69 from 63 in November and starts improved on the month but existing home sales slowed to 5.490 mln from 5.650 mln in November.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
Hot-Forex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 27th January 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 27th January 2017.

FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets mostly moved higher overnight, with Nikkei and Topix was trading close to levels last seen in December 2015 as the Yen weakened. The Hang Seng is slightly down, but Asian markets are still heading for a weekly gain, even as the global stock market rally is running out of steam as concerns over a trade war start to dampen global growth optimism. In Europe, only the DAX managed to close with modest gains yesterday, while other markets ended in the red. U.K. stock futures are moving higher this morning as the Pound falls back again, but U.S. futures are narrowly mixed. Against that background, we could see a stabilization of long yields, which continued to move higher this week, although it remains to be seen whether the pressure on Eurozone peripherals eases. The calendar today has German import price inflation at the start of the session as well as confidence data out of France and Italy and Eurozone M3 money supply growth.

Japan: The BOJ CPI rose by 0.1% in December. This came in as expected but lower than Novembers 0.2% rise. The increase in global and domestic demand was based on rising stocks, which lead Japanese exporters into a better position. Furthermore, BOJ’s announced a major JGB (Japanese Government Bonds), had a negative influence on the Japanese Yen.

US: reports revealed modest upside surprises for December trade and wholesale inventories, though with a modest December retail inventory shortfall, alongside a 22k initial claims surge in the MLK week to 259k that still left a tight claims trend despite holiday volatility. We also saw a big 10.4% December drop for new home sales to a lean 536k rate led by weakness in the Midwest, as we unwound a likely weather-boost in November, though we also saw a 4.3% median price spike to a $322,500 all-time high with a 4.0% new home inventory rise to a 7-year high of 259k. We saw a big 0.5% U.S. December leading indicators rise that leaves a sharp climb in this measure since March. The day’s mix of data lifted our Q4 GDP estimate to 1.7% from 1.6%, though we trimmed our Q1 GDP forecast to 2.2% from 2.3%. We still expect a 190k January nonfarm payroll rise.

UK: Above-forecast preliminary GDP for Q4 cast little market impact, being released after Cable had already made its high. Her Majesty’s pound remains the week’s outperformer out of the currencies we track, presently showing an average 1.6% advance versus the G3 currencies. Cable support is at 1.2623-24, while the December-6 high at 1.2774 provides an upside waypoint. We still see sterling gains versus the dollar as opportunity to establish fresh short positions given Brexit-related uncertainties versus expectations for more Fed tightening and bold economic policies of Trump.

Main Macro Events Today

US UK – President Donald Trump meets Prime Minister Teresa May.

US GDP and Durable goods – Quarterly GDP expected to fall to 2.2% from 3.5% in Q3 but above the 1.4% pace in Q2. After a string of contractions, inventories turned positive in Q3 and therefore positive turn back is again expected. December durable goods data expect a 2.0% increase for orders with shipments up 0.7% on the month and inventories up 0.2%. This compares to respective November figures of -4.5% for orders, 0.1% for shipments and 0.2% for inventories.

Michigan CSI – The second release on January Michigan Sentiment is out today and expected to be revised up slightly to 98.2 from 98.1 in December. The IBD/TIPP poll for the month posted an improvement to 55.6 from 54.8 in December and we expect Consumer Confidence to tick up to 114.0 from 113.7 last month.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

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Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
Hot-Forex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 30th January 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 30th January 2017.

FX News Today

Politics will remain omnipresent near term, but economic data and monetary policy will be back in view. There are policy meetings from the FOMC, BOE and BoJ, though they should be uneventful. While it can be debated whether Trump’s bombastic force was the catalyst for the burst in animal spirits, it’s a fact that the Dow is 9.6% higher since Election day, and has crossed the 20k barrier for the first time ever. The German Dax is up a mighty 12.7%, while Japan’s Nikkei has risen an impressive 13.4%. Even the FTSE is up 7.2% despite worries Brexit would cause a crash. Consumer and business sentiment indicators (including PMIs) from around the world have increased measurably. The FOMC meets for the first time this year. There’s no press conference or release of estimates this time, so the focus will be exclusively on the policy statement. No one anticipates any action at this point, but we’ll be looking for clues on the timing of the next rate hike.

United States: This week’s heavy data slate is loaded with key releases, headlined by Friday’s January nonfarm payroll report. Jobs are forecast rising 190k after the disappointing 156k December increase. The unemployment rate is seen steady at 4.7%, while earnings should rise 0.3%. Income and consumption for December (Monday) will be closely monitored as it a gauge of potential consumer spending. Q4 employment costs (Tuesday) are seen posting a 0.6% pace of growth the same as in Q3. January consumer confidence is projected at 114.0 (median 113.0) from 113.7 in December. Also due this week are manufacturing (Wednesday) and services (Friday) ISMs. Each is expected to be unchanged. January vehicle sales will be awaited, along with the ADP private employment survey (both Wednesday).

This week’s earnings news could also help support the bullish tone in equities. Positive news from industrials, financials, tech, and IT helped propel the Dow to 20k and the S&P to 2,295. About one-third of the S&P has reported so far, (68% have beaten estimates). Tuesday has Apple, Pfizer, Exxon, UPS, and Sprint. On Wednesday, there is Facebook. Thursday includes Amazon, Visa, ConocoPhillips, Royal Dutch Shell, Merck, GoPro, and Philip Morris.

Canada: November GDP (Tuesday) will be important for the global growth outlook. Also of note is the December industrial product price index (Tuesday). Governor Poloz (Tuesday) speaks at the University of Alberta School of Business, which will be followed by a press conference.

Europe: The frenzy of data releases this week is likely to add to Draghi’s problems as the recovery continues, while inflation is jumping higher and could even top the ECB’s 2% limit in Germany. The week starts with German inflation data (Monday), where we see headline HICP rising to 2.1% y/y with overall Eurozone number (Tuesday) at 1.6% y/y. A major difficulty is that the divergence across countries is rising again. Preliminary readings for Q4 GDP are expected to be relatively robust, with overall Eurozone GDP growth is also expected to have improved to 0.4% from Q3’s 0.3%. At the same time, confidence indicators for January have generally shown that the recovery continues, and the final manufacturing and services PMI readings are expected to be confirmed at 55.1 and 53.6 respectively. However, the decline in German jobless numbers is likely to have slowed at the start of the year. The data calendar also has German and Eurozone retail sales, as well as French consumer spending data for December, along with December Eurozone PPI. Events include ECBspeak from Draghi, Praet, Coeure, Nowotny and Mersch among others.

UK: The BoE’s Monetary Policy Committee conducts their February meeting this week (announcement Thursday), and publishes its latest quarterly Inflation Report (also Thursday). Expectations are widespread for the nine members to vote unanimously for unchanged policy, which would leave the repo rate at its historic low of 0.25%, and leave the prevailing QE total unchanged. The minutes and inflation report are expected to convey a continued wait-and-see stance. The data calendar is heighted by January Gfk consumer confidence (Tuesday), expected to dip to -8 from -7 December. There’s also the monthly lending data from the BoE (Tuesday), and the January PMI surveys, starting with Wednesday’s manufacturing report and concluding with Friday’s services report, with construction due Thursday.

China: New Year Holidays until Thursday however, the official CFLP PMI (Wednesday) is expected to dip to 51.1 from 51.4. The Caixin/Market index (Friday) is projected falling to 51.5 from 51.9.

Japan: The BoJ begins its 2-day meeting (Monday). No change in policy is expected. December retail sales (Monday) up 1.7% y/y overall. Tuesday’s calendar is full unemployment is expected unchanged at 3.1%, December personal income and PCE are on tap too,. December industrial production, housing starts and construction orders are also due. January manufacturing PMI (Wednesday) is seen slipping to 52.3 from 52.4, and January auto sales are also due Wednesday. Thursday has January consumer confidence, which is forecast to dip to 43.0 from 43.1. The services PMI is due Friday. The minutes to the December BoJ meeting are also out on Friday.

Australia: Trade report (Thursday), expected to reveal an A$2.2 bln surplus. Building approvals (Thursday) are seen 3.0% firmer in December after the 7.0% gain in November.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Stuart Cowell
Senior Market Analyst
Hot-Forex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.