HFMarkets: New market analysis services.

[HFM.]

Date : 20th March 2023.

Market Update – March 20 – CS sends shockwaves through the market!



UBS to buy Credit Suisse in a more than $3 bln share deal, pushed into the biggest banking deal in years! The Swiss government will provide more than $9 billion to backstop some losses that UBS may incur by taking over Credit Suisse, while $17.3 billion of the so-called additional tier 1 bonds will be completely written down. Last Thursday, CS also took a $54 billion lifeline from the Swiss National Bank.

Credit Suisse’s takeover by UBS marks the end of the bank’s 167 years as an independent institution.

Global central banks announce enhanced USD liquidity arrangement. The Fed, the Bank of Canada, the ECB, the BoE, the Bank of Japan and the SNB on Sunday announced, “coordinated action to enhance the provision of liquidity, via the standing US dollar liquidity swap line arrangements”. The frequency of the 7-day maturity operations will be enhanced from weekly to daily as of March 20 until at least through the end of April “to support smooth functioning of US dollar funding-markets”.

• Insignificant Exposure in China: The Swiss bank’s Hong Kong branch has assets equivalent to around $12.7 billion, less than 0.5% of the overall banking system.
• Bancorp’s Flagstar Bank will take on nearly all of Signature Bridge Bank’s deposits.
• In 2019, the Fed issued a warning to SVB over its risk-management systems.
• Stocks – Stock markets are selling off! USA100 down to 12580, the US500 dipped to 3912, and the USA30 at 31,760. Nikkei and ASX closed with losses of -1.4%, the Hang Seng is down -3.1% and European and US futures are also sharply lower.

• FX – USDIndex is at 103.40 today. EUR slightly down to 1.0636, but holds the upchannel since last Wednesday! JPY spiked below 131.00, retested S1 at 130.70. Sterling steady around 1.2190.
• Commodities – USOil – dragged down with stocks, at $64.70 low.
• Gold – up 2% today, breaching 3 year high territory at $2009 level.
• Cryptocurrencies – BTC in a rally to $28,262 since Asia open, up more than 3%.

Today – ECB Lagarde speech, Import & Exports from New Zealand.



Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) GOLD (+0.95%). Breached $2009! MA’s aligned higher, MACD histogram & signal line positive & rising, RSI 78 OB & rising, H1 ATR 10.05, Daily ATR 31.41.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 21st March 2023.

Market Update – March 21 – Sentiment Stabilised?


Trading Leveraged Products is risky

Risk appetite improved to kick off spring. Though banking jitters are still an undercurrent, the various rescue measures, including UBS’s takeover of Credit Suisse over the weekend, helped ease global tensions. Trading in Japan is closed for a public holiday. European and US Stocks are extending gains for now, as US Dollar steadied at 103.

Confirmation from European officials that equities will take losses before risky bonds, which helped AT1 bond markets in Asia to recover. Speculation that the US could temporarily agree to guarantee all bank deposits if the financial crisis expands also helped!

• RBA comments showed that the bank will consider a pause in the tightening cycle at the next meeting.
• ECB: ECB’s de Cos won’t validate bets of 3.25% peak deposit rate. In the light of recent financial market jitters and after cautious comments on the situation from Lagarde markets have lowered expectations for the peak deposit rate to 3.25%, which would be just one additional 25 bp hike. ECB’s Kasaks suggested more rate hikes underway, if things stabilise.
• FX – USDIndex is slightly higher at 103.10 today. EUR slightly lower to 1.0712 but still in an upchannel. JPY above PP at 131.72. Sterling holds gains above 1.2250. AUD extended losses to 0.6675.
• Stocks – USA100 advanced 0.39%, the US500 up 0.89%, amid broadbased gains, and the USA30 rallied 1.2%. ASX moved up 0.8%, while Hang Seng and CSI300 gained 0.9 so far. Amazon fell 1.8% after announcement for another 9,000 layoffs (so far 9% of its workforce). Google (-0.52%) suspends China’s Pinduoduo app due to malware issues. NYCB (+30%) surge after Signature deal. Pimco & Invesco face losses as the 2 biggest AT1 Bond holders of Credit Suisse.
• First Republic Bank posted further declines on top of the -80% plunge the prior two weeks, following a second downgrade from S&P.
• Commodities – USOil – continues to struggle but recoved from $64 lows to $67.24 now.
• Gold – has been a major beneficiary from the fallout, though it is a bit lower today, down -0.9% to $1971, after surging to $2,009.73. It has not closed with a $2,000 handle since March 8, 2022.
• Cryptocurrencies – BTC reversed from $28.4K highs. Currently at $27.2K.

Today – ECB Lagarde speech, Canadian Inflation & US Existing Home Sales.



Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) NZDUSD(-55%). Retest 0.6200 floor! MA’s flattened, MACD histogram & signal line remain negative, RSI 35, H1 ATR 0.0009, Daily ATR 48.4.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 22nd March 2023.

Market Update – March 22 – Stocks build a rally ahead of Banks!


Stocks Rallied! Asian stock markets have followed Wall Street higher, GER30 and UK100 futures are also posting slight gains, while US futures are narrowly mixed as markets wait for the FOMC announcement later today. Even though concern over global financial stability is easing and risk appetite has improved, with central banks expected to tighten policy further there is still some nervousness ahead of the announcement, as fears that aggressive action will add further pressure continue to weigh.

UK inflation surged higher ahead of BoE.

The data came in much higher than anticipated, with CPIH rising to 9.2% y/y from 8.8% y/y, while CPI hit 10.4% y/y. Most worrying for policymakers will be the jump in core inflation – from 5.8% y/y to 6.2% y/y. The data will likely force the BoE’s hand tomorrow and another rate hike looks much more certain now than before the release.

• FX – USDIndex has corrected to 102.75 as Treasury yields declined. EUR corrected to 1.0760 but still in an upchannel. JPY weakened for a 2nd day, while it is now holding at 132.50. Sterling jumped after data to 1.2283.
• USDCAD popped to 1.37 on the cooler Canadian Inflation, from a 1.3654 low, but has dipped back to 1.3662 currently.
• Stocks – US100 advanced 1.6%, the US500 is up 1.3% and the US30 added 316 points, +1%. First Republic shares surged 29% while KeyCorp, US Bancorp, Truist Financial and Comerica picked up about 9% each by the close. Those five were also the top gainers on the US500 for the day.

• Commodities – USOil – has snapped a two day run higher and is currently at $69.50.
• Gold – Evening Star Formation ? Gold slumped back to $1934 as yields on the 10-year government bond jumped Tuesday, making it more appealing to hold Treasuries than Gold.
• Cryptocurrencies – BTC holds around $28K highs.

Today – ECB Lagarde speech, FOMC began its meeting, 25 bp hike expected, focus on dot plot!



Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) GBPCHF(-0.56%). Jumped to 1.1334 reversing half of yesterday’s losses! MAs aligned higher, MACD histogram & signal line remain negative, RSI 57 and rising.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 23rd March 2023.

Market Update – March 23 – Stocks Slumped Post Fed.


Stocks continue month’s downward spiral! Wall Street reversed gains to close with declines of -1.6%, but the slump was a function of comments from Treasury Secretary Yellen rather than the Fed. FOMC hiked 25 bps as expected, 2023 median dot left unchanged at 5.125%.

“The Committee anticipates that some additional policy firming may be appropriate,” rather than “ongoing increases in the target range will be appropriate.”- suggesting less than a 50-50 risk for another quarter point move!

Even though Powell began his press conference reiterating the banking system is “sound and resilient” and assured the Fed is prepared to use all its tools to keep it safe and sound, Yellen at the same time told lawmakers she wasn’t considering ways to provide broad guarantees to uninsured bank deposits. She assured Senator Joe Manchin that in the event the insurance is extended, it could be seen as a “special one-time assessment” where the cost was not a burden to customers with smaller deposits.

• FX – USDIndex slumped on the less hawkish view to 101.54 as Treasuries and implied Fed funds futures rallied on the policy outcome. That is not far from the 101.21 from February 1 which was the weakest since April 2022. EUR spiked to 1.0920, JPY has corrected to 130.80 from 130.41 low and Sterling to 1.2337 ahead of BOE.
• In the UK, MPs backed Rishi Sunak’s new Brexit Northern Ireland deal!
• 
• Stocks – Asian stock markets traded mixed, with Nikkei and ASX following Wall Street lower, but China bourses outperforming. European futures are down, in catch up trade, and ahead of today’s decisions. US100 down –1.6%, the US500 is up at –1.65% and the US30 to -1.63%. PNC -5.49% and US Bancorp USB -7.28% declined more than 5%. Giants like JPMorgan -2.58% and Bank of America Corp. -3.32% slipped more than 2%. First Republic FRC -15.47%.
• The FAANG era is apparently over! Apple & Microsoft weightage in the S&P500.
• Commodities – USOil – hovering around $70.
• Gold – Evening Star Formation & Head and Shoulders failed! Gold recovered and is back to $1980 highs on the weak USD. Next key Resistance at $1990-$2000.
• Cryptocurrencies – BTC filled March gap but found a floor at $27K.

Today – SNB and BOE Decisions are in the spotlight, while EU consumer confidence figures is also on tap.



Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) GOLD (+1.66%). Jumped to 1983. MAs flattened indicating possible consolidation in the near term but MACD histogram & signal line remain well above 0 and RSI at 67 and flat.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 24th March 2023.

Market Update – March 24.


The various monetary policy stances and other dynamics in the financial markets are likely to keep the Greenback choppy.

Stocks initially down as Yellen stated that the government was not considering blanket deposit insurance, but afterwards her remark that the government is prepared to take additional actions provided some calm holding Wall street in green at the close, with gains of 1.01% on the US100. Asia markets were mixed, while European stocks are slightly higher on open. Overnight the BoE, SNB, and Norges Bank all hiked rates as expected – The SNB delivered a 50 bp hike, Norges Bank and BoE hiked by 25 bp. The bounce in risk appetite, the strength in jobless claims, and a renewal in corporate issuance have weighed a bit as well.

• FX – USDIndex modestly weaker at 102.30. EUR spiked to 1.0830, JPY has extended to 130.00 and Sterling found a floor at 1.2250.
• In Japan, we saw core inflation come in at 3.1% for February, marking the first time in 14 months that the pace of inflation has slowed.
  
  
• Stocks – The US30 and US500 are up 0.23% and 0.3%, respectively. Block & Coinbase tumbled over 14% and #FRC #PACW lost -6% and -8.55% respectively. Nikkei was down 0.13% to close.
• Payments group Block said it intends to work with US regulators and explore legal action against Hindenburg Research after the short seller issued a report accusing the company of inflating its user numbers and facilitating fraudulent transactions.
• Commodities – USOil – hovering around $69-$70 as traders weigh the Fed policy outlook and fine-tune expectations for US demand. The US crude inventories unexpectedly lifted 1.1 million barrels last week, which is the highest since May 2021. Large builds on the Gulf coast outweighed a decline at the Cushing Oklahoma storage hub. Markets are still waiting for the expected bounce in Chinese demand, while on the supply side Russia decided to extend its output reduction through June. That should help to keep a floor under prices.
• Gold – at $1985 after retesting $2003 again. Treasury yields may have nudged higher, USD remains under pressure but Gold has remained supported and added to the gains.
• Cryptocurrencies – BTC holds above $28K.

Today – PMIs from EU, UK and US and Durable Goods.



Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) NZDJPY (-0.56%). Drifted to 81.10. MAs aligned lower, MACD histogram & signal line remain well above 0 and RSI at 31 and falling. H1 ATR 0.25 & Daily ATR 1.19.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 27th March 2023.

Market Update – March 27 – A Volatile Final Week of Q1?


Asian markets are much calmer today after another wild and volatile week, but bank angst and recession risk continue to linger. JPY is underperforming peers to start the week. US Stocks eked out gains on Friday, the USD recovered & Treasury yields fell across the curve, with all trading under 4%. Deutsche & Commerzbank lost -8.53% and -5.54% respectively. European and US FUTS are currently higher. First Citizens Bank will buy SVB from the FDIC, the Head of the IMF warns that global financial stability is at risk from banking turmoil, and the head of the Saudi Arabian national bank is forced to resign after sparking the run on Credit Suisse.

Week Ahead: US GDP on Wednesday and the CORE PCE Price Index on Friday top the data releases and the week, month and quarter.

• FX – USDIndex rallied from 102.00 on Friday to test 103.00 and holds at 102.80 now. EUR slipped to 1.0750 and continues to rotate round this level. JPY dipped below 129.50 on Friday before recovering to 131.25 now. Sterling tested down to 1.2200 on Friday and holds at 1.2225 now. UK OBR said that UK economy is 4% smaller due to Brexit exclusively.
• Stocks – US markets moved higher (+0.31% to +0.41%) Major movers were elsewhere: DB.de -8.53%, CBK.de -5.54%. Tech giants lifted US markets. US500 +0.56% (+22.27) to 3970, US500 FUTS higher too 4021 now.

• Commodities – USOil – Futures tested the $67.00 level again on Friday before recovering to $70.00. Gold – could not hold the key psychological $2000 level on Friday and trades at $1970 now.
• Cryptocurrencies – BTC holds at $28k after struggling to move away from this level last week.

Today – German Ifo, Speeches from Fed’s Jefferson, BoE’s Bailey, ECB’s Schnabel & Elderson.



Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) CADJPY (+0.55%). Continued the rally today from Friday’s low test of 94.00 back to 95.50 now. MAs aligned higher, MACD histogram & signal line positive & rising, RSI 65 & rising, H1 ATR 0.198, Daily ATR 1.600.



Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 28th March 2023.

Market Update – March 28 – Calmer Markets & Weaker USD


Trading Leveraged Products is risky

Banking stocks rose across the spectrum yesterday into the Asian and European sessions, easing worries over illiquidity and any further bank runs, for now. JPY is over performing peers after yesterday’s weakness. US Stocks were mixed and the USD weaker as Treasury yields recovered across the curve, but all remain under 4%. European and US FUTS are currently higher. First Citizens Bank gained +53%, FRC +11.80%, BAC, +4.97% led the Wall Street behemoths and Oil stocks were lifted by a rise in crude prices. Andrew Bailey said too many UK workers were retiring early, EU banking regulator (EBA) warns ” risks in the financial system remain very high” following similar comments from IMF chief yesterday.

Overnight: AUD Retail Sales (0.2% vs. 0.2% & 1.8%) & JPY Core CPI (2.7% vs 3.0% & 3.1%) both missed significantly.

• FX – USDIndex drifted lower all day yesterday and has moved down again today to 102.25 now. EUR rallied from 1.0750 support over 1.0800 and continues to rotate round this level. JPY rejected 200hr MA yesterday at 131.70, down to 130.50 ahead of JPY Inflation data, Sterling rallied over 1.2300 today and holds at 1.2325 now.
• Stocks – US markets mixed (-0.47% to +0.61%) Major movers outside the banks were GOOG -2.83% and OXY +2.53%. US500 +0.16% (+6.5) to 3977, US500 FUTS 4018 now.

• Commodities – USOil – Futures recovery continued yesterday from $70.00 to test previous support level at $73.00 today. Gold – could not hold the key psychological $2000 level on Friday & breached $1950 yesterday, back to $1955 now.
• Cryptocurrencies – BTC fell from $28k after US regulators sued Binance, & CEO Changpeng Zhao for running an “illegal” exchange and a “sham” compliance programme. Zhao called the complaint “unexpected and disappointing.” BTC dipped to $26.5K before recovering $27K.

Today – US Senate Banking Committee re. SIVB, Speeches from ECB’s Lagarde, Enria, BoE’s Bailey, Ramsden & Fed’s Barr,



Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) USDJPY (+0.67%). Rejected 200hr MA yesterday at 131.70, down to 130.50 ahead of JPY Inflation data. MAs aligned lower, MACD histogram & signal line negative & falling, RSI 45 & falling, H1 ATR 0.206, Daily ATR 1.910.



Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 29th March 2023.

Market Update – March 29 – USD continues to ease as sentiment lifts.


Bank jitters continue to ease lifting sentiment & Asian markets despite US stocks closing in the red. The USD eased another 0.3% and Yields gained with the 2-yr regaining 4%. Alibaba surged 14.3% in US trading and was up 16.3% at one point in Hong Kong after it announced it will split into 6 separate entities. Other Chinese tech companies (Tencent & JD.com)) are stronger. The YEN continues it’s volatile week as year end looms, AUD is lower on weaker Inflation, European & US Futures are higher. US Consumer Confidence was better than expected, the Fed’s Barr called SVB “not well managed” and that the $142 billion of withdrawals in first week of March represented 81% of 2022 deposits.

Overnight: AUD CPI missed (6.8% vs. 7.2% & 7.4%) and adds to prospects of RBA pausing rate hikes at next week’s meeting. German GfK Consumer Climate in-line (-29.5% vs -29.5% & -30.6%).

• FX – USDIndex drifted 0.3% lower yesterday to test 102.00 before a bounce to 102.25. EUR rallied from 1.0800 to 1.0850 now. JPY continued its volatile week back to 132.00 now after lows of 130.40 yesterday, Sterling rallied over 1.2300 to 1.2340 and holds at 1.2325 now.
• Stocks – US markets lower (-0.12% to -0.45%) Major movers outside the Chinese tech stocks were OXY +4.29% & LYFT -7.6%. US500 –0.16% (-6.26) to 3971, US500 FUTS +0.37% higher at 4026 now.

• Commodities – USOil – Futures recovery continued again yesterday from $70.00 to hold over $73.00 and test $74.00. EIA Inventories today. Gold – dipped to $1950 once again, rallied to $1975 and trades at $1960 now.
• Cryptocurrencies – BTC has recovered to $28k today after testing $26.5k again. SBF faces new SEC charges that he tried to bribe Chinese officials with a $40 million payment.

Today – US House Financial Services Committee re. SIVB, Speeches from Fed’s Barr, BoE’s Mann, ECB’s Schnabel.



Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) USDJPY (+0.79%). Volatility continues. Tested down to 130.40 after weak inflation yesterday, testing 132.00 today. MAs aligned higher, MACD histogram & signal line positive & rising, RSI 71, OB & rising, H1 ATR 0.216, Daily ATR 1.910.



Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 30th March 2023.

Market Update – March 30 – Stocks Recover & USD finds a floor.


Trading Leveraged Products is risky

Bank jitters continue to ease lifting sentiment again, US stocks rallied (+1% to +1.79%) led by the NASDAQ, Asian markets are mixed and European FUTS are positive. The USD bounced 0.2% but has eased overnight and Yields drifted sideways. Earnings beats from Micron (+7.19%) & Lululemon (12.72%) were upbeat surprises too. The YEN continues it’s volatile week as the Japanese financial year end looms. AUD recovers from yesterday’s weaker performance. US Pending Home Sales were better than expected (+0.8% -2.9%) and Oil Inventories significantly lower (-7.5M vs +1.8M) the Fed’s Barr continued to claim that “many were to blame for Silicon Valley Bank failure”.

Overnight: German CPI North Rhine Westphalia (many more States to follow during the day) March CPI +6.9% vs +8.5% prior.

• FX – USDIndex recovered 0.2% yesterday but remains capped at 102.50, trading at 102.25 now. EUR holds over 1.0800 to trade at 1.0840 now. JPY continued its volatile week rallying from under 131.00 to 132.50 now, Sterling plotted a 39-day high yesterday at 1.2360, before receding to 1.2325 now.
• Stocks – US markets rallied lead by tech stocks yesterday (+1.00% to +1.79%) #US100 entered a technical bull market after gaining +20% from its December low and the #US500 closed above 4000 and also over its 50SMA for the first time in over three weeks. Major movers also included INTEC +7.61% & AMZN +3.1%. US500 +1.42% (+56.54) to 4027, US500 FUTS also higher at 4066, breaking & breaching key 4050 resistance.

• Commodities – USOil – Futures declined from $74.00 after EIA Inventories and trades at $73.60 now. Gold – dipped to $1955 once again, and trades at $1965 now.
• Cryptocurrencies – BTC has breached $29k today and holds $28.5k again.

Today – Swiss KOF Indicator, EZ Consumer Confidence, German CPI, US Weekly Claims, Q4 GDP & PCE Prices, Banxico & SARB Policy Announcement, CBRT Minutes, Speeches from Fed’s Barkin, SNB’s Maechler & Moser.



Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) EURNZD (-0.30%). Rallied from 1.7300 yesterday to big DAILY resistance at 1.7450 today before turning lower to break 1.7400. MAs aligning lower, MACD histogram & signal line positive but falling, RSI 45.90 & falling, H1 ATR 0.00189, Daily ATR 0.01695.



Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 1st April 2023.

Events to Look Out For Next Week.

It’s a holiday shortened week ahead as most markets will be closed on Friday for the Easter holidays, however Inflation and Banks remain the focal point. The advent of a new month and new quarter could further improve risk appetite despite some ongoing jitters in regional banks, still tight jobless claims, and hawkish central bankers. Next week’s heavy dose of global data releases includes the RBA and RBNZ rate decision and the employment data from Canada, while US NFP is in the spotlight.​

Monday – 03 April 2023​

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• Consumer Price Index and Core (CHF, GMT 06:30) – Swiss inflation for March is expected to ease at 0.4% from 1.9% previously.
• ISM Manufacturing PMI (USD, GMT 14:00) – The ISM index is expected to slip to 47.5 in March, after a rise to 47.7 from a 3-year low of 47.4 in January.

Tuesday – 04 April 2023​

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• OPEC-JMMC meeting attended by representatives from the 13 OPEC members and 11 other oil-rich nations.
• Rate Statement & Interest Rate Decision (AUD, GMT 04:30) – The RBA is considering a pause on rate rises, according to the minutes to the March 7 meeting. They flagged that the board will consider keeping the cash rate on hold at 3.6% in April, if the economy shows signs of softening. “Members agreed to consider the case for a pause at the following meeting recognising that pausing would allow additional time to reassess the outlook for the economy”. “At what point it will be appropriate to pause will be determined by the data and the board’s assessment of the outlook”.

Wednesday – 05 April 2023

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• Rate Statement & Interest Rate Decision (NZD, GMT 02:00) – As the high inflation continues the RBNZ is expected to continue hiking, with markets pricing in a nearly 100% chance of a 25 bps rate hike to 5%. New Zealand’s economy is expected to have shrunk 0.3% in Q1 following a 0.6% growth last quarter, indicating a mild recession.
• ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (USD, GMT 12:15) – ADP is expected to climb to 200K in March after the 242K seen in February.
• ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (USD, GMT 14:00) – The ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI should ease to 54.8 from 55.1, versus a 3-year low of 49.2 in December. We’re seeing a 16-month producer sentiment pull-back from robust peaks in November of 2021, with many of the various component categories now in contraction territory. Producers are facing big headwinds from elevated interest rates, recession fears, and now a banking crisis, but have benefited from the need to rebuild inventories following a prolonged period of supply chain disruptions.

Thursday – 06 April 2023

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• Labour Market Data (CAD, GMT 12:30) – Canada’s employment change is anticipated to contract by -4.2k in March from 21.8K growth last month. Unemployment and participation rate are seen unchanged.

Friday – 07 April 2023

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• Good Friday – The stock and bond markets will both be closed.
• Event of the Week – Non-Farm Payrolls (USD, GMT 13:30) – A 220K March nonfarm payroll increase is anticipated, after gains of 311k in February. A continued tight path for claims in March implies some upside payroll risk. The jobless rate should hold steady at 3.6% from February, up from the 54-year low of 3.4% (3.43%) in January. Hours-worked are assumed to rise 0.2% after a -0.1% February drop, while the workweek holds steady at 34.5. Average hourly earnings are assumed to rise 0.3% after a 0.2% gain in January, while the y/y wage gain should fall to 4.3% from 4.6%. In the last expansion, we saw a 3.5% peak for y/y wage gains in both February and July of 2019, before the pandemic-boost to an 8.0% peak in April of 2020. The ensuing strength in wage gains has allowed continued robust y/y increases, though the return of low-paid workers to the workforce is likely restraining wage increases.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 3rd April 2023.

Market Update – April 3 – Q2 kicks off with Easter Week.


Q2 kicks off with Easter Week, meaning many markets around the world will be closed, likely making for a slower, quieter pace of trading after the whiplash in Q1.

USD strengthened today and extends Friday’s gains with the help of diminished bank fears and the improved outlook on the economy. US Stock markets closed out Q1 firmly with solid gains and some quarter-end flows. The major indexes are higher for the year-to-date, paced by the US100‘s 16.8% pop. Asian markets are higher into the new quarter, US futures are mostly lower but European are mixed. Australian national home values rose 0.6% in March from February, breaking a 10-month streak of falls, according to property research group CoreLogic. Oil jumped $5+/barrel today as OPEC announced a surprise output cut.

Overnight: Japan – Tankan Large All Industry Capital Expenditure missed significantly (3.2% vs 9.9%), China – Caixin PMI (50 vs 51.7), Australian Building Permits (4% vs -2.6%).

• FX – USDIndex rallied to 12.58, EUR dipped to 1.0780 having traded to 1.0930 last week. CHF topped to 0.9195 but currently gains some ground against USD after Swiss CPI inflation dropped more than anticipated. JPY continued spiking to 133.80 as Japanese data missed significantly. Sterling retests 1.2300.
• Stocks – US markets closed the Quarter higher and today holding some gains with US30 holding above 33,450, US500 also higher at 4120 and US100 slightly lower but above 13,190.

• Commodities – USOil – Futures rallied again on the weaker USD to hold over $78.88 at $81.47. Saudi Arabia and other OPEC+ oil producers on Sunday announced further oil output cuts of around 1.16 million barrels per day, in a surprise move.
• Gold – pullbacked to $1949.65 once again, holding 1-week’s support.
• Cryptocurrencies – BTC holds $27.4k.

Today – ISM Manufacturing PMI & BOC Business Outlook Survey.



Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) USOIL (+5.02%). Rallied to 81.43 this morning but currently sits at 78.91. MAs steady, MACD histogram & signal line positive & rising, RSI 70.72, H1 ATR 0.82, Daily ATR 3.35.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 4th April 2023.

Market Update – April 4 – RBA watered down its tightening bias!



Trading Leveraged Products is risky

USD drifted, returning end of quarter gains on more signs of slowing in manufacturing activity, which had boosted Treasuries yields but after the data reversed the selloff. Implied Fed funds futures dipping too as the market reduced slightly the risk for a May rate hike. US Stock markets closed higher except US100. European futures are slightly higher. Oil held gains above $80 led by OPEC+ and Saudi’s pledge of its own of 500k reduction (“Saudi First”), which was the main driver across assets.

Overnight: RBA – held rates unchanged VS expectations – The bank has not ruled out a resumption of rate rises in the future. Fed’s Bullard (nonvoter) expects funds rate over 5% to achieve inflation target. ECB hawk Holzmann suggested that another 50 bp hike in May is not out of the question.

• FX – USDIndex sagged to a low of 101.98 on the growth outlook and less hawkish Fed view, but the index finished the day at 102.03. EUR lifted to 1.0916. JPY underperformed as traders weighed in the impact of higher oil prices on Japan’s manufacturing sector. Currently back up to 132.80 amid wider weakness in the Yen. Sterling boosted to 1.2400, amid USD weakness and as UK March manufacturing PMI revised down.
• 
• Stocks – The US30 rallied 0.98%, led by the jump in energy. The US500 was 0.37% in the green, while the US100 slipped -0.27%. Nikkei and ASX managing slight gains, but China bourses trading narrowly mixed. The Hang Seng underperformed after the US100 closed in the red, with the tech sector not benefiting hugely from the more cautious tone of central banks.
• Commodities – USOil – Saudi’s pledge of its own of 500k reduction was the main driver across assets. USOIL ended with a 6.28% pop to $80.42, up over $80 for the first time since March 6 (just before SVB went under), and the contract is up 10% since last Wednesday.
• Gold – at 5-day support, $1976.
• Cryptocurrencies – BTC holds $27.4k.

Today – European PPI, Canadian Building permits, US Jolts and Factory Orders.



Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) USDRUB (+5.02%). Rallied to 78.50 this morning. MAs aligned higher, MACD histogram & signal line positive & rising but RSI flat and Stochastic posted a bearish cross. H1 ATR 0.4139, Daily ATR 0.9496.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 5th April 2023.

Market Update – April 5 – Stock markets struggle.


USD remains under pressure, post the weaker than expected JOLTS and factory orders reports which set the stage for another strong rally in Treasuries as they heightened beliefs the FOMC is nearing the end of its tightening cycle. Yields plunged on the data headlines. RBNZ surprised, raised to 5.25% from 4.75% – the country’s economy is headed for recession, defined as two consecutive quarters of negative growth. US Stock markets sold off slightly into the afternoon with declines of about -0.5% as the weaker data dominated. BoE’s Hunt hinted for a rate rise in May. Pound at its highest level in 10 months, with slightly stronger than expected economic growth and an uptick in inflation in February raising the chances of higher interest rates. German manufacturing orders much stronger than expected.

• FX – USDIndex ranging 101.11-101.29. EUR steady above 1.0950. JPY lifted extending 3-day gains, currently at 131.50 from 133.75 high against USD. Sterling boosted to 1.2522 reaching June 2022 highs.
• 
• Stocks – Asian stock markets struggled, and European stock futures are also mostly in the red, after another disappointing data round in the US undermined confidence in the recovery and left Wall Street with another loss. Japanese markets underperformed and the Nikkei lost -1.7%. Walmart shares -1% afterhours as it sticks with cautious sales outlook for first quarter. Ford’s quarterly sales jump 10% as supply improves.
• Commodities – USOil is sideways between $80- $82 as concerns of further tightening support oil prices for now.
• Gold – rallied to $2026.
• Cryptocurrencies – BTC extending above $28.5k.

Today – Service PMI’s from EZ, UK & US ISM Services & Trade Balance and ADP Private Payrolls.



Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) NZDUSD (+0.52%). Spiked to 0.6378. MAs flattened, MACD line below histogram, RSI turn below 80 and Stochastic at 55 indicating the end of the rally.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 6th April 2023.

Market Update – April 6 – Eyes on Jobs.


While Friday’s jobs report is the near term focus, attention is already turning to CPI on April 12.

USD wobbled initially and stumbled to 101.4 on the data, but recovered to close at 101.75. Another data miss, a further drop in bonds. Treasuries rallied further after weaker ISM services and ADP numbers added to expectations for a slowing economy that will keep the FOMC hawks grounded, if not in May, then in June. The combination of risk aversion, reduced expectations for Fed tightening, short covering, and technicals all helped propel the move. Wall Street was mixed all session & Asian equities declined following the US lower as investors switched their focus to the prospect of a recession. German industrial production surged 2.0% m/m in February, adding to signs that activity has strengthened, and that Germany will escape a technical recession! UK house prices rose unexpectedly in March.

Overnight – China & HK reopened but the regions stocks also remained heavy ahead of Easter Weekend. – Chinese Services PMI grew strongly, the AUD trade balance was better than expected but weighed on AUD & NZD.

• FX – USDIndex ranging 101.11-101.29. EUR and GBP are weaker but steady above 1.0900 and 1.2450 respectively. JPY also lost some ground against USD rebounding to 131.50.
• 
• Stocks – US100 dropped -1.07%, while the US500 fell -0.25%, with the US30 rising 0.24%. Western Alliance Bancorp shares have fallen further today, dropping some -17% following an update on its Q1 financials yesterday on a lack of details. Losses are being pared slightly after just releasing further information on its deposits, noting total deposits declined to $47.6 bln in Q1 from $53.6 bln to end Q4. It is slated to announce its earnings on April 18 after the close.
• Commodities – USOil is sideways between $79-$80.
• Gold – prices have slipped to $2012 from $2032, but the contract is holding above $2000 after breaking that barrier yesterday (closing basis) for the first time since March 2022.
• Cryptocurrencies – BTC flat at $28k.
• 

Today – US Jobless Claims, Canadian Employment data & Speech from the Fed’s key Hawk – Bullard.



Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) NZDJPY (+0.52%). On EU open rebounded from 82.42 but holds well below PP. MAs reversed but not bullishly crossed yet, while MACD & RSI remain negative.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 7th April 2023.

Market Update – April 7 – Stocks & Dollar Higher Ahead of Jobs Day.


Trading was cautious heading into the March jobs report and the Easter holidays. Most global markets will be closed on Good Friday, with much of Europe also shut for Easter Monday. Wall Street will not trade today, but the Treasury market will be open for an abbreviated session due to the employment report. The USD recovered from lows, Stocks closed a tad higher and Yields slipped again (US 10-yr at 3.288%). Gold tested down to $2,000 before settling a $2007.82, & USOil closed at $80.70.

Overnight: Japan – February household spending (weaker) +1.6% vs +4.3% & Leading Indicator Index rises to 97.7 vs 96.5 last time.

• FX – USDIndex slipped to 101.06 yesterday and remains below 102.00 today at 101.50. EUR slipped under 1.0900 yesterday but trades at 1.0920 now. JPY found a floor at 131.00 this week but remains under 132.00 for a fourth day. Sterling’s decline from the key 125.00 holds at 1.2440, next support 1.2425.
• Stocks – US markets, closed mixed led by tech stocks yesterday (+0.76% to -0.03%) #US500 closed at 4105 – US500 FUTS also higher at 4128.

• Commodities – USOil – Futures held the key $80.00 and a new equilibrium following the OPEC production cut last weekend. Gold – tested into $2000 once again, before settling a $2007.82
• Cryptocurrencies – BTC continues to rotate at what is becoming the key $28k again.

Today – Most trading Centres closed for Good Friday, US NonFarm Payrolls



Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) AUDJPY (+0.31%). Broken a 3-day fall from a test of the 90.00 zone earlier in the week, recovering 88.00 today. MAs aligning higher, MACD histogram & signal line turning positive & rising, RSI 59.35 & rising, H1 ATR 0.103, Daily ATR 1.089.



Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 10th April 2023.

Market Update – April 10 – USD Recovers, JPY awaits Ueda.


US Payrolls on Friday were a near bullseye, with a 236k rise in March after -17k in revisions, though there was a skewing of weakness toward the goods sector. We saw the expected 0.3% hourly earnings rise that left a 4.2% y/y gain. The jobless rate fell to 3.50% from 3.57%, leaving the rate still above the 54-year low of 3.43% in January, with hefty gains of 577k for civilian employment and 480k for the labour force, while the labour force participation rate rose to a new a 3-year high of 62.6% from a prior high of 62.5%. However, there was a further drop in the workweek to 34.4 in March that fueled a -0.1% drop in the hours-worked index after small downward revisions. Overall, it raises expectations of a 25 bp hike from the Fed on May 3rd.

Overnight: Japan – March consumer confidence index 33.9 vs 31.1 prior

• FX – USDIndex slipped under 101.50 on Friday and remains below 102.00 today at 101.85. EUR remains at 1.0900 today, having spiked down to 1.0875 on the NFP data. JPY breached 132.00 on Friday and holds 132.60 ahead of Gov. Ueda. Sterling’s decline from the key 1.2500 tests 1.2400 today.
• Stocks – US markets, closed mixed led by tech stocks on Thursday (+0.76% to -0.03%) #US500 closed at 4105 – US500 FUTS touched 4145 on Friday but are lower today at 4127. Q1 Earnings Season kicks off with the big Wall Street Banks this week.

• Commodities – USOil – Futures hold the key $80.00 and even breached $81.00 briefly earlier following the OPEC production cut last weekend. Gold – broke below the vital $2000, testing into support at $1987, before recovering to $1995.
• Cryptocurrencies – BTC slipped to $27.7k, recovered the key $28k and tests $28.4k today.

Today – Most trading Centres remain closed for Easter Monday, Speeches from new BOJ Governor Ueda, & Fed’s Williams.



Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) USDJPY (+0.49%). A 3-day rally from under 131.00 continues testing 132.75 resistance today. MAs aligned higher, MACD histogram & signal line positive & rising, RSI 62.00 & rising, H1 ATR 0.191, Daily ATR 1.310.




Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 11th April 2023.

Market Update – April 11 – Stocks & USD Mixed as Inflation & Earnings Loom.


Trading Leveraged Products is risky

US #stockmarkets closed mixed – Industrials higher – Tech lower (#Samsung said they will cut chip production – lifting Western Digital & Micron +8%). USD continued to recover, (USDIndex topped at 102.50), Treasuries slipped again (10 yr 3.41%) and #BTC breached $30k for the first time in 10mths. In the Asian session stocks are higher (ASX +1.3% after Easter break & Nikkei +1.4% after a Dovish outlook from new BOJ Governor Ueda & Buffet said he was planning to add to his Japanese investments. AUD is outperforming.

Overnight Data Chinese #CPI cooled to 0.7% from 1.0% and missed expectations, and #PPI fell further remaining significantly deflationary at -2.5% from -1.4%

• FX – USDIndex rallied to 102.50 yesterday and hold at 102.00 today. EUR tested down to 1.0850 but is back to test 1.0900 today. JPY breached 133.00 yesterday & rallied to 133.88 as BOJ Governor Ueda, confirmed there will be no immediate policy change from the BOJ. Sterling’s decline from the key 1.2500 stalled at 1.2350 and now trades back at 1.2400 today.
• Stocks – US markets closed mixed (+0.30% to -0.03%) after a very weak open. #US500 closed at 4109 – US500 FUTS are higher today at 4140. Q1 Earnings Season kicks off with the big Wall Street Banks on Friday & FRC today.

• Commodities – USOil – Futures tested under the key $80.00 level but holds at $80.50 now. Gold – tests the vital $2000, level again today having been as low as $1982, yesterday.
• Cryptocurrencies – BTC rallied over 8% from the $28k level and breached $30k earlier today spiking to $30.7k on speculation that interest rates may have peaked. Additionally, a major revamp to the Ethereum ($1.917k) blockchain is due this week “that is set to allow them to gain access to more than $33 billion of ether currency. Dubbed Shapella, the software upgrade will let market players redeem their “staked ether” – coins they have deposited and locked up on the network over the past three years in return for interest.” – Reuters

Today – EZ Retail Sales and Sentix Index, EIA STEO, speeches from Fed’s Goolsbee & Harker. IMF Meetings Continue. Earnings – First Republic (#FRC), which was hit hard by client withdrawals in the aftermath of Silicon Valley Bank’s collapse.



Biggest FX Mover @ (07:00 GMT) AUDUSD (+0.46%). Rallied from under 0.6620 yesterday to test 0.6680 today. MAs aligned higher, MACD histogram & signal line positive & rising, RSI 61.00 & rising, H1 ATR 0.00092, Daily ATR 0.00701.




Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 12th April 2023.

Market Update – April 12 – All eyes on US Inflation & FOMC Minutes.


US #stockmarkets closed mixed again and Asian markets are flat ahead of US CPI print at 12:30 GMT today. USD has slipped again as EUR & AUD outperform. Treasuries recovered a tad (10-yr at 3.434%), #Gold hits $2,020 #USOil moves to $81.50 despite inventory build and #BTC holds onto $30k level. Fed’s Harker the “Fed may soon be done” and Goolsbee the Fed “needs to be careful about raising rates too aggressively in its efforts to tame inflation”, turned more Dovish. Kashkari remained Hawkish, “would be much worse for jobs if we failed to get inflation down”. CME Fed Futures still have a 69% chance of 25 bp interest rate hike in May. A hold from June ??

Overnight Data Japanese #PPI cooled to 7.2% from 8.3% but remains very elevated and #Machine Orders declined significantly (-4.5%) but not as badly as expected (-6.4%) from 9.5%.

• FX – USDIndex declined to 101.65 and remains anchored below 102.00 today. EUR holds over 1.0900 today and trades at 1.0925. JPY breached 134.00 today from a test back to 133.00 yesterday. Sterling holds over 1.2400 at 1.2425.
• Stocks – US markets closed mixed again with Tech underperforming (+0.29% to -0.43%). #US500 closed at 4109 – US500 FUTS are lower today at 4134 from 4150 yesterday. Q1 Earnings Season kicks off with the big Wall Street Banks on Friday. #CARMAX rose 7% following stronger results.

• Commodities – USOil – Futures tested $81.50 level today despite private API inventories showing weaker demand as a build for both gasoline and petroleum products was recorded. Official EIA inventories today. Gold – tests the $2020, level again today having been as low as $1998, yesterday.
• Cryptocurrencies – BTC holds the $30k level spiking to $30.5k earlier. Binance also suspended TRON & Spell as TRON founder Justin Sun was arrested in Hong Kong (also wanted in the US).

Today – US CPI, BoC Rate Decision, FOMC Minutes, speeches from ECB’s Lagarde and de Guindos, BoE’s Bailey (x2), Fed’s Barkin and Daly. Earnings – LVMH



Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) EURJPY (+0.16%). Continued to rally from under 143.00 last week to test 146.35 today. MAs aligned higher, MACD histogram & signal line positive & rising, RSI 61.00 & rising, H1 ATR 0.187, Daily ATR 1.526.



Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 13th April 2023.

Market Update – April 13 – CPI & FED “One more hike & done?”


The US CPI report was good news for bulls as it suggests the FOMC can start easing off the brakes, though this is not likely in May (69% chance of another hike). Some market participants believe one more 25bp and they will be done, others remain Hawkish and that moving CORE CPI & CPE from the 5% to the 3-2% range will prove problematic and this could mean hikes in May and June too.



FOMC minutes showed considerable discussions over the banking turmoil, as indicated in Chair Powell’s press conference. The “banking sector” was the literally the lead paragraph of the report and was mentioned 24 times overall, compared to zero in February. There was some overall softening in outlooks, which also “increased the already-high level of uncertainty associated with the outlooks on economic activity.” However, ultimately “all” participants supported the 25 bp rate hike. A mild recession is expected from the FOMC.

The Bank of Canada left its target rate at 4.50%, as expected, unchanged from March after the 25 bp tightening in January. But it was a “hawkish” pause as inflation and economic activity have not really evolved as expected. CAD gained on the news.

Volatility dominated the newsflow yesterday. USD dived and remains pressured, EUR, Sterling & AUD all benefitted. US Stocks markets all closed lower, and this fed through to mixed Asian markets and European & US Futures. Treasury markets caught an extra bid and yields finished lower, led by the 2-year’s 6.5 bp slide to 3.958% & the 10-year’s +3.5 bp to 3.395%, remaining 56 bp inverted. Gold and Oil both benefited from a weaker USD and BTC continues to hold at $30k.

Overnight Data China March Trade – big beat – (USD) Exports +14.8% y/y (expected -7.1%) & Imports -1.4% y/y (expected -6.4%). AUD Jobs beat (53k vs 20k), Unemployment (3.5% vs 3.6%) & CPI (4.6% vs 5.3%) both fell significantly too. German Final CPI in line at 7.8% and UK GDP (Feb) missed again (0.0% vs 0.1% & 0.4%) last time.

• FX – USDIndex declined to test April lows at 101.05 and remains anchored well below 102.00 today at 101.20. EUR spiked to 1.1000 yesterday and again today and trades at 1.0988. The 2023 high is 1.1032. JPY dived from 134.00, tested below 133.00 and trades at 133.25 now. Sterling rallied from 1.2400 but remains under the key 1.2500 once again at 1.2490.
• Stocks – US markets closed lower (-0.11% to -0.85%) as the rate sensitive Tech sector led the declines once again. #US500 closed down 17pts. at 4091. – US500 FUTS are also lower today at 4124 from highs of 4177 yesterday. #LVMH rallied after surging sales in China.

• Commodities – USOil – Futures have tested the $83.50 level today despite official EIA inventories showing weaker demand as a build (+0.6m vs -1.0m and -3.7m last week) for both gasoline and petroleum products was recorded. Gold – has broken the $2020, level again today having been to a low of $2001, and a high of $2028 yesterday.
• Cryptocurrencies – BTC holds the $30k level spiking to $30.4k and $29.6k extremes yesterday.

Today – EZ Industrial Production, US PPI, US Weekly Claims, OPEC MOMR, speeches from BoC’s Macklem, BoE’s Pill.





Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) AUDJPY (+0.38%). Continued to rally from under 88.00 on Monday to test 89.50 today. MAs aligned higher, MACD histogram & signal line positive & rising, RSI 63.00 & rising, H1 ATR 0.187, Daily ATR 1.526.




Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 14th April 2023.

Market Update – April 14 – Stocks rally, USD tumbles, FED to stall?


Stock trading screens turned green yesterday after cooler than expected PPI (-0.5% vs 0.0) and a bigger than expected increase in jobless claims (239k vs 228k)helped propel Wall Street to better than 1% gains. The NASDAQ surged 1.99% to top the 12,000 level again. The US500 jumped 1.33% and has been over the 4,000 mark for an eleventh straight session. The US30 was up 1.14% to top 34,000 for the first time since mid-February. Treasuries closed in the red 10yr at 3.44% and the curved is now 52 pts inverted. USD continues to decline and trades at 12-mth lows, EURUSD over 1.1070 this morning and Sterling trades at 1.2540. Asian markets cautious & flat (save NIKKEI +1.1%) & European FUT’s are firmer ahead of US bank earnings, Retail Sales and UoM Consumer Sentiment.

Overnight Data Singapore’s central bank sprang the surprise of the Asian day by halting its tightening cycle, markets were expecting more restraint. Singapore joins Canada & Australia, India & South Korea to press the pause button. They also issued a gloomy outlook.

• FX – USDIndex declined further to 100.50 and 12-mth lows and a third consecutive week of declines. EUR spiked to 1.1070 earlier and holds the bid. JPY dived from 133.00 and is testing 132.00 now. Sterling rallied to breach 1.2500 and holds this key level.
• Stocks – US markets closed with strong gains across all sectors (1.14% to 1.99%) as the rate sensitive Tech sector led the rally. #US500 closed +54 pts. at 4146. – US500 FUTS are also higher today at 4167 having tested the resistance at 4175 again. #AMZN & #NFLX gained over 4% each and #GOOG, #MSFT & #TSLA over 2% each.

• Commodities – USOil – Futures cooled from weekly highs at $83.50 to $82.30 today. Gold – holds over the $2040, level today having been to a low of $2015 yesterday. Next major resistance sits at $2050.
• Cryptocurrencies – BTC holds the $30k level spiking to $30.8k today.

Today – US Retail Sales, US Industrial Production, US Uni. of Michigan Prelim. Survey, speeches from Fed’s Waller, BoE’s Tenreyro, Earnings from UnitedHealth, JPMorgan, Wells Fargo, Citigroup, BlackRock.





Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) EURAUD (+0.32%). Continued to rally from under 1.6260 yesterday to test 1.6340 today. MAs aligned higher, MACD histogram & signal line negative but rising, RSI 55.00 & rising, H1 ATR 0.00161, Daily ATR 0.01377.



Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.