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[HFM.]

Date : 23rd January 2023.

Market Update – January 23 – Same story new week!


Chinese New Year celebrations – many centres are closed in Asia. Treasuries sagged to end on a bearish week. USDIndex at 101.30 low as the market continued to price out a 25 bp rate hike on February 1 & BoJ’s latest attempt to keep a lid on yields, along with some profit taking. Wall Street (US100 +2.66%), 10-year Treasury yield is at 3.48%. Options expirations likely helped support the advance. A report of big layoffs at Alphabet added to recession fears and weighed initially, but signs of cost cutting enticed dip buying. Goldman Sachs slipped on reports of a DoJ probe into its consumer unit.

• The USD Index sagged at 101.32.
• EUR – is flirting with the 1.09 mark.
• JPY – sold off and USDJPY lifted to 130.21, although the USD corrected against most other currencies.
• GBP – slipped to 1.2400 again after the data this morning. The UK consumer confidence is finally improving. The FT reported that the Deloitte Consumer Tracker rose 0.6 points – the first improvement in five consecutive quarters.
• Stocks – The US100 surged a heady 2.66%, with the US500 up 1.89% and the US30 1.0% higher. The Nikkei rallied 1.3%, the Topix added around 1%. The ASX managed a 0.1% gain and European stock futures are higher. GER40 +0.5%, UK100 +0.2%.

• Citadel breaks records with $16bn profit. Ken Griffin’s hedge fund charged its investors $12bn in fees and expenses in 2022.
• USOil – tops at $81.40, as USD supports crude prices.
• Gold – retested $1,937 highs but turned to $1,920 lows since then.
• BTC – spikes to 22,800 area (September’s peak) – Risky trades?

Today – ECB’s Lagarde and Panetta speech. A quarter of the S&P 500 report this week starting with Microsoft on Tuesday.



Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) EURJPY (+0.87%). Rallied to 141.90. MAs aligned higher, MACD histogram & signal line positive & rising. RSI 77.85, OB & rising, H1 ATR 0.278, Daily ATR 1.834.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 24th January 2023.

Market Update – January 24 – Stocks in a Rally!


USDIndex settled at 101.50, Wall Street rallied on the back of tech amid ongoing hopes for a downshift in Fed rate hikes amid a potential moderation inflation this week. Fears of a recession and the potential for the worst quarter of earnings in seven years were put aside for now. Microsoft announces Tuesday but news it is investing $10 bln in OpenAI, the maker of ChatGPT provide strong support for investors.

• The USD Index failed to extend above 102, while it returned to 101.50, as Treasuries cheapened amid the gains in risk appetite and the pressure of upcoming supply, including $120 bln in shorter dated Treasury coupons and a hefty corporate calendar.
• EUR – is flirting with the 1.09 mark for 7th time the past 2 weeks.
• JPY – pullback to 129.70.
• GBP – holds above 1.2400. Today, UK public borrowing data showed a rises with debt financing costs – the highest borrowing figure for December on record and a much higher number than anticipated.
• Stocks – The US500 breached 4058 but closed at4019 (+1.19%), with the US100 up 11930 and the US30 +0.8%, to 33700 higher. The Nikkei rallied 1.46% and European stock futures are higher. Logitech quarterly sales fall 22% as slowdown fears bite. Microsoft announces today but news it is investing $10 bln in OpenAI, the maker of ChatGPT provided strong support for investors. Advanced Micro Devices AMD 9.22% added $6.46, or 9.2%, to $76.53 and Nvidia NVDA 7.59% rose $13.54, or 7.6% to $191.93.

• USOil – steady at $81.50, as USD decline and expectations of rising Chinese demand support crude prices.
• Gold – breaks 9-month high today, extending to $1,941.40 high.
• BTC – extends above 23,000 area. For how long?

Today – German, Eurozone, UK and US flash S&P Global PMIs are due today. New Zeleand and Australian Inflation for Q4 is also on tap.



Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) USDJPY (-0.45%). Rejects 130.70 for a 3-day in a row. MAs aligned lower, MACD histogram & signal line are close to neutral zone. RSI 42 & flat, H1 ATR 0.200, Daily ATR 1.920.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 26th January 2023.

Market Update – January 26 – BOC Pause, TESLA Beat, USD at Lows.

Trading Leveraged Products is risky
HK markets reopened today and rallied +2.15%, other Asian markets were softer following a weak handover from Wall Street (opened -1.6% but recovered to close flat) Gold remains at 9-mth highs and USD at 8-mth lows. The Dovish 25bp hike from the BOC hit the CAD (USDCAD hit 1.3430 from 1.3340); – the key phrase the Bank – “expects to hold the policy rate at its current level while it assesses the impact of cumulative interest rate increases.” Speculation building that the BOC could even be raising rates before year end. #TSLA (+0.38%) Earnings beat (+5.5% after hours) record deliveries (with 1.8-2.0 possible 2023), magins held up & the 20% price cuts kicked-in. MUSK talked of deep recession and more cost cutting for year ahead. Gold $1940, USOIL over $80.00, BTC breaches $23k.

• The USD Index has tested the 8-mth low at 101.25, today, trades at 101.40 now ahead of another busy economic data day .
• EUR – holds over 1.0900 now, posting 9-mth highs at 1.0929 today, following 1.0925 on Monday.
• JPY – Sank below support at 130.00 yesterday, and tested back to 129.00 today, before Japanese minister warning of not letting speculators dominate JPY movements.
• GBP – Sterling has rallied over 1.2400 today to test 1.2410 resistance.
• Stocks – The US markets closed flat (-0.18% to +0.03%) yesterday amid concerns over Earnings. US500 -0.02%, (-0.73) 4016 band holds the key 4000 level US500 FUTS trade firmer at 4042. IBM. AT&T both beat, whilst Boeing numbers were mixed. In Europe today Diageo and SAP have both posted strong beats, lifting European stocks (+0.60%) at open.

• USOil – topped at $81.00 yesterday before dipping to $79.50 after inventories showed a 0.5 million barrel build compared to expectations of 1.2m after two weeks of huge builds. Trades at $80.40 now.
• Gold – Tested into $1949 earlier today from $1922 support yesterday, and trades at $1940 now.
• BTC – Continues to hold the $22k handle this week, spiking to $23.7K earlier today and holds $23k currently.

Today – US Durable Goods, GDP Advance/PCE Prices Advance (Q4), Weekly Claims, New Home Sales, Japanese CPI, SARB Policy Announcement, Earnings from Diageo (beat), STMicroelectronics, Nokia, SAP (beat) LVMH, Comcast, Intel & Visa.



Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) NZDCAD (+0.24%). Rallied from 0.8620 post BOC lows yesterday to test 0.8700 & trades at 0.8680now. MAs aligned higher, MACD histogram & signal line positive & rising. RSI 53.10 & stalling, H1 ATR 0.0012, Daily ATR 0.0073.



Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 21st February 2023.

Aussie & Kiwi Post RBA, Ahead Of RBNZ.


The minutes of the RBA meeting showed that the committee believes the cash rate is currently lower than in many economies, while the data showed a higher than expected breadth and persistence of inflation. They supported continued rate hikes in the coming months (25 bps or 50 bps may be considered, with medium-term inflation expectations holding up well.) On peak interest rates, the Committee noted that this would depend on household income and expenditure outflows, employment and price movements.

Chart 1: Japanese manufacturing and services PMI. source: Trading Economics
On the other hand, the Asia Pacific trading session saw a mixed performance from Japan’s PMI data for February. In manufacturing, the data was pressured below the waning line for the fourth consecutive month and posted the largest decline since August 2020 at 47.4 vs. 48.9. The report showed that weak global demand led to a further decline in buying activity and that foreign sales were contracting at a faster pace, leading to the largest decline in both output and new orders since July 2020. In the services sector, the figure was recorded at 53.6, the highest since June last year. This was mainly due to a faster rate of growth in new orders and a modest increase in new business from abroad. Overall, the performance of the manufacturing and services PMIs offset each other, with the final Japanese composite PMI remaining unchanged at 50.7 in February.

Figure 2: Japanese inflation rate. Source: Trading Economics
Japanese inflation remains high. In December 2022, inflation in Japan rose to 4% year-on-year, the highest level since January 1991. A weaker Yen and higher imported raw material prices have contributed to the price spike. Not only that, but core inflation also recorded a 4% annual increase, the biggest rise since December 1981. BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said later that wages would rise in line with rising labour demand and inflation, but “believe inflation will slow down in the middle of fiscal 2023“.

Haruhiko Kuroda will attend his last monetary policy meeting in office next month. He will be succeeded by Kazuo Ueta, an academic and former member of the Bank of Japan’s policy committee. This figure is “an unknown quantity” to many, but according to Professor Shibu Takahashi, who has worked with him, Kazuo Ueta cannot be classified as a Hawk or a Dove. “He is a “pragmatic problem solver“. Kuroda’s decision on yield curve control (YCC) at the last meeting will be a key one. If he chooses not to act, then Kazuo Ueta could face “massive bond sell-off” pressure after taking office.

The next key event meanwhile for the Asia region is the RBNZ policy announcement tonight. The RBNZ last announced an interest rate decision around three months ago, when they raised rates by 75bp to bring rates to 4.25%. 400bp has been added to the tightening cycle, with November’s 75bp hike being the cycle’s most extreme increase. The decision is now between adding an additional 75bp to raise rates to 5% or sticking with 50bp to bring rates to 4.75%.

Not only has inflation fallen short of the RBNZ’s own expectations, but measures of corporate confidence have also fallen to an all-time low, and their business PSI has barely expanded, suggesting that the economy should have slowed. The inflation forecast over the next two years fell from 3.6% to 3.3%, but the forecast for next year is still historically high at 5.1%.

Overall, a 50bp increase is the most likely scenario, but a 75bp increase is also a possibility. Therefore, the focus is on how hawkish or not the RBNZ’s statements are perceived to be and whether or not they signal that the tightening cycle is coming to an end.

Technical Analysis: NZDUSD & AUDJPY



NZDUSD

NZDUSD, D1 – This currency pair has slipped below the 200-day EMA slope to test 0.6190 support. A break of this price level would show that the 0.5510 rebound has ended at 0.6537 (50% FR of 0.7463 – 0.5510 drawdown) and instead, the decline from the 0.7463 peak will resume back towards lower price levels. As long as the 0.6190 support remains intact, the upside movement could test 0.6389 and the 0.6537 interim high.

Overall, the price bias is still neutral despite the RSI mark at 39 and MACD is still in the selling zone. So certainly, the RBNZ event will be the next trend parameter.



AUDJPY

The daily chart shows the AUDJPY rebounding from a 9-month low on 20 December last year, then rising and in an uptrend channel area. The pair is currently testing the key FR50.0% resistance at 92.70. A successful break would mean a continuation of the upside pattern for AUDJPY with the next resistance at 94 (FR 61.8%) and 96 (FR 78.6%), which intersects the top line of the uptrend channel. If pressured, it could fall back and test the 100-day SMA, then 91.40 (FR 38.2%; bottom line of the rising channel) and 89.70 (FR 23.6%).

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Larince Zhang and Ady Phangestu
Market Analyst – HF Educational Offices

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 22nd February 2023.

Market Update – February 22 – It has gotten ugly out there!



US Stocks recorded their worst day in two months, Yields soared with 10-year Treasuries hitting three-month peak. Vix index, a measure of stock market volatility and often dubbed Wall Street’s “fear gauge”, rose above 23, its second highest level of the year. Fears over a more hawkish FOMC stance for a longer period of time continued to weigh on the markets. More strong data added further to the hawkish Fed case as well with the S&P Global PMIs climbing more than expected, with the services and composite indexes rising back into expansionary territory. US housing market weakened in January for the 12th straight month as continued high mortgage rates kept buyers on the sidelines. RBNZ delivered 50bp hike as expected.

• USD Index slightly below 104, hovering around 23%. The market has fully priced in further rates hikes with a 25 bp increase on March 22, and another 25 bp on May 3.
• EUR– retests 1.06 area once again as markets keep pricing in ECB lifting rates to all-time high.
• Stocks – Wall Street slumped. US100 (-2.50%), US500 (-2%), US30 (-2.06%). Stocks were also hurt by the disappointing guidance from Walmart (+0.61%) and Home Depot (-7.06%), as well as fears from increased competition from China as it reopens, with some indications of easing restrictions on tech. Tesla (-5.25%), Coinbase (-4.80%).

• Lithium crashed by 30% – Could affect EV manufacturers!
• Commodities – USOil dropped to $75.55.
• Gold – steady at $1838.
• Cryptocurrencies – BTC – Slightly lower to $24,050.
• Coinbase (-4.80%) beat earnings but net income of $605 million while net income was a loss of $557 million. Coinbase shares, which lost about two-thirds of their value over the last year, have rallied sharply since the start of 2023, up roughly 80%. (Boost from BTC rally.)

Today – FOMC Meeting Minutes in the spotlight.




Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) US100. Retests 12000. MAs extend lower, MACD histogram & signal line negative, RSI 29.88.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 23rd February 2023.

Market Update – February 23 – On Pins & Needles For Nothing.


US Stocks held lower but pause the decline, US Dollar spiked to 104,50 and Yields richened on short covering following the recent rout, but ended off of the day’s lows as FOMC minutes fail to provide fresh clues to alter expectations on the path. The 10-year was down 3.7 bps to 3.916%.

FOMC minutes solidified views for further hikes and a higher funds rate through the year. Fed funds futures are suggesting some increased risk for a 50 bp increase at the March 21-22 meeting with the implied rate at 4.878%. May is showing a 5.132% rate, with June at 5.30%. The peak is still seen in July at 5.358%. One notable factor in the market, however, is a 5.02% rate is now priced in for January 2024.

• USD Index slightly below 104.51, hovering around 23%. The market has fully priced in further rates hikes with a 25 bp increase on March 22, and another 25 bp on May 3.
• JPY – hovering around 134.70-134.90.
• Stocks – wavered narrowly through the session before closing either side of unchanged with the US100 (0.13%), US500 (-0.16%), US30 (-0.26%).
• Mixed earnings news: Pioneer Natural Resources Co. (#PXD.s) reported $7.8bn record profits in 2022 — more than triple its previous record of $2.1bn the previous year. Pioneer is becoming the latest oil producer to reap the rewards of high oil prices in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. ExxonMobil (#XOM.s) brought in a record $56bn. Rolls-Royce beats forecasts with 57% profit rise. BIDU -2.63% hopes its own artificial intelligence-powered chatbot will put the company back on the path to growth. Baidu stock is up 26% so far in 2023. Nvidia surged almost 9% after the bell.
• Bank of Korea holds interest rates steady for first time in a year.
• Commodities – USOil dropped to $73.80 as IEA Europe’s energy war with Russia is not over, warns IEA. Also on geopolitics as Biden meets eastern european leaders, stresses unity, Chinese diplomat lauds Russia ties in Putin meeting. Brent crude posted its biggest single-day loss in 7 weeks. Markets reassess positions after the US Federal Reserve stoked worries about the economy by suggesting further rate hikes ahead.
• Gold – steady above $1817 for more than a week.
• Cryptocurrencies – BTC – rebounded to $24,350.

Today – Europe and Japan are to release annual inflation data, US Prelim GDP and unemployment claims, while Alibaba will also release its earnings.



Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) Palladium drifts to1450. MAs extend lower, MACD histogram & signal line negative, RSI 30.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 24th February 2023.

Market Update – February 24 – Stocks & Bonds seem oversold.


Stocks had a limited rebound despite the hotter than expected inflation and jobs data. Yields rise when bond prices fall, so there was a marginal unwinding of some of this month’s hefty selloff. Data showed the labor market remains historically tight. Initial jobless claims, a proxy for layoffs, decreased by 3,000 to a seasonally adjusted 192,000 last week, well below the 2019 pre-pandemic average. It looks as though fears of the Fed hawkishness has peaked, at least for now, and the market is settling in for a long fight against inflation. Traders now see a 27% chance the Fed could lift rates by a more aggressive half point at its next meeting, up from just 1.3% a month ago.

• USD Index remains choppy, holding the 104.00 level for a third day, but is off its 104.68 overnight high.
• JPY rallied to 135.36 ahead of Friday’s hearing in the lower house of parliament on the nomination of Kazuo Ueda as the next BoJ governor, and after current BoJ Governor Kuroda said the Bank plans to maintain its accommodative stance, but it has fallen back to 134.00. Currently settled at 134.80.
• Stocks – Stocks are firmer, with the US500 and US100 up about 0.6%, while the US30 is 0.45% higher. A pop in Nvidia (+14%) after an earnings beat is boosting chips and underpinning tech. Nvidia, one of the index’s biggest constituents, said late Wednesday that it is expecting an AI-driven boom and a recovery in its videogame business. Wayfair shares dropped by -23%. The online furniture retailer said it lost 5 million customers in 2022 and posted an annual net loss of $1.3 billion. Moderna’s stock slid by -6.7%, after the drugmaker reported lower quarterly revenue and earnings, as demand for its Covid-19 vaccine fell.
• Commodities – USOil rebounded to $76.30 as the prospect of lower exports from Russia offset rising inventories in the United States, despite US inventories being at their highest level since May 2021.
• Gold – steady above $1817.
• Cryptocurrencies – BTC – rebounded to $23,800.

Today – US PCE, Home Sales and US Michigan Index.



Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) USOIL (+1.23%) recovers to 76.30. MAs aligned higher, MACD histogram & signal line turn positive, RSI 68. ATR (1H) at 0.25 and ATR(D) at 2.11.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 28th February 2023.

Market Update – February 28 – End Of Month Account Balancing.


After the worst week since September for stock markets last week, on Monday the US and Europe markets closed flat and end of month profit taking and account balancing has tipped Asia into the red today. The USD tested 2023 highs (105.35) yesterday but is lower today. Overnight: Japan reported strong CPI (3.15), Housing and Retail Sales data AUD Retail sales picked up (1.9% vs. -4.0%) and GER Import prices were weaker than expected as energy prices continue to decline.

• FX – USD Index tested into 105.35, just 4 pips shy of the 2023 high yesterday, back to 104.75 now. EUR tested lows at 1.0530 before recovering 1.0600, JPY breached 136.00 & trades at 136.606 now. Sterling rose over 0.98% yesterday (1.2070), its biggest daily gain in more than seven weeks. British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak struck a deal with the European Union on post-Brexit trade rules for Northern Ireland. Back to 1.2035 now.
• Stocks – The US markets held on to gains after a strong open. (+0.22% to +0.63%) Movers – #TSLA +5.46% & Zoom gained +7% after hours on strong outlook. US500 0.31% (12.20) 3982, US500 FUTS 3979 now.

• Commodities – USOil – Futures dropped to test $75.00 lows, yesterday, before recovering to $76.25 today. Gold – tested the support level at $1805 yesterday before recovering to $1810 now.
• Cryptocurrencies – BTC – Back to test $23k again today from last week’s rejection of $25k.

Today – French & Spanish Prelim. CPI, Swiss KOF, Canadian GDP, US Chicago PMI, Consumer Confidence, Speeches from BoE’s Pill, Cunliffe & Fed’s Goolsbee.



Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) NZDUSD (-0.28%). Declined to 0.6130 yesterday before recovering to 0.6180 and back to 0.6145 now. MA’s aligned lower, MACD histogram & signal line negative & declining, RSI 38.60, H1 ATR 0.00080, Daily ATR 0.00637.




Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 1st March 2023.

Market Update – March 1 – USD Holds at highs, PMI’s in Focus.


Trading Leveraged Products is risky

The USD held at recent highs to close the month, stocks were lower, weighed by weak US data and inflation in Europe surprisingly spiked in France and Spain. Overnight: Chinese PMI data showed manufacturing growing the fastest in 10-years and Services surging (56.3). Australian CPI sank significantly to 7.4% but GDP missed (0.5% vs 0.8%) pulling down the AUD. Upbeat Chinese data has lifted European Futures. Gold and Oil both had strong closes to a weak month.

• FX – USD Index tested back to 105.00 before declining to 104.65 now. EUR holds over 1.0600, from 1.0570 & capped by 1.0620 today. JPY topped at 136.70 yesterday tested below 136.00 & trades at 136.606 now. Sterling enthusiasm stalled at 1.2145 before declining to test the key 1.2000 zone again. Back to 1.2070 now.
• Stocks – The US markets slipped again (-0.10% to -0.71%). Movers – #NVAX +6.8% & META +3.19%. GS -3.19% after problems in their consumer unit. #TSLA day today. US500 –0.30% (-12.90) 3970, US500 FUTS 3983 now.

• Commodities – USOil – Futures tested to $77.60 yesterday, dipped a $1.10 and are back to $77.60 now. Gold – tested below the support level at $1805 yesterday before a significant last day of the month rally to $1830. Trades at $1835 now.
• Cryptocurrencies – BTC – Back to test $23k support yesterday and holds $23.7k now.

Today – EZ/UK/US Final PMIs, German CPI (Prelim.), US ISM Manufacturing PMI, New Zealand Export/Import Prices, Speeches from BoE’s Bailey & Fed’s Kashkari.





Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) NZDJPY (+0.80%). Rallied from 83.75 yesterday to 84.85 now, with next resistance at 85.00. MA’s aligned higher, MACD histogram & signal line positive & rising, RSI 72.30 & in the OB zone, H1 ATR 0.158, Daily ATR 0.00637.



Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 2nd March 2023.

Market Update – March 2 – ISM Price Hikes & Higher Yields dent sentiment.


Trading Leveraged Products is risky

The USD continues to hold onto recent gains despite US10yr Yields hitting to a four-month top of 4.018% and ISM Manu. prices spiking to 51.3, a five-month high, from 44.5 in January. US Stocks closed lower and this has rippled into Asian markets. TSLA day disappointed with no new vehicle announcements, #TSLA shares fell -5.6% after hours. Kashkari was as Hawkish as ever & Fed Fund Futures now have a 50 bp hike at 33% & a terminal rate in the 5.50%-5.75% range. Overnight: Japanese Capital Spending fell less than anticipated and Consumer Confidence failed to meet expectations but remains at 5-month highs too. Australian building approvals collapsed -27.6% from +15.3%.

• FX – USD Index tested back to 104.00 before recovering to 104.70 now. EUR holds over 1.0600, but rejected an advance to 1.0700, holds at 1.0635 today. JPY is back to Tuesday’s top at 136.80 from a test below 135.50. Sterling enthusiasm continued to evaporate breaching and breaking the key 1.2000 zone again today, trading at 1.1970 now.
• Stocks – The US markets slipped again (+0.02% to -0.66%). Movers – #NVAX -25.92%, CAT +3.81% & HAL -3.53%. US500 –0.47% (-18.76) 3951, US500 FUTS lower again at 3928 now.

• Commodities – USOil – Futures tested to $77.70 yesterday and again today before dipping to $77.35 now. Gold – rallied again yesterday to $1844 but trades at $1830 support now.
• Cryptocurrencies – BTC – Tested to $24k resistance yesterday and holds $23.3k now.

Today – EZ CPI (Flash) & Unemployment Rate, US Weekly Claims, Japanese CPI, BoE DMP & ECB Minutes, Speeches from Fed’s Waller & Kashkari, ECB’s Schnabel, BoE’s Pill.



Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) USDJPY (+0.50%). Rallied from 135.50 yesterday to 136.80 now, as US Yields rally and JPY weakens, next resistance at 137.00. MA’s aligned higher, MACD histogram & signal line positive & rising, RSI 69.30 & rising, H1 ATR 0.168, Daily ATR 1.210.



Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 3rd March 2023.

Market Update – USD & Yields Dip from Highs & Stocks Recover.


The USD slipped from recent highs but holds at 104.75. Yields cooled, but the 2/10 yr yield curve remains inverted by 83 bp as the 2-year yield eyed 5% yesterday. US Stocks closed positive (DOW +1.05%) which has helped lift Asian markets (Nikkei +1.56%) along with a positive spin on the new Chinese economic targets that are due to be announced on Sunday. Sentiment also got a lift from “Dovish” Fedspeak from Bostic who prefers “slow & steady” 25 bp rate hikes to limit recession risks. Overnight: NAB CEO says 3 more RBA rate hikes are possible and Kashkari & Waller continued to press the Hawkish stance. Japanese Unemployment declined to 2.4% and Tokyo area CPI slipped to 3.3% from 3.4%. Chinese Services PMI beat significantly at 55.00 from 52.9 last time.

• FX – USDIndex rallied to over 105.00 to 105.13, but has cooled to 104.70 now. EUR holds over 1.0600, but declined yesterday to 1.0575 following a hot EZ CPI reading and US Claims. JPY breached 137.00 but has declined to 136.40 now and flat for the week so far. Sterling was a weak performer yesterday declining into Monday’s low at 1.1925 and remains below the key 1.2000 trading at 1.1980 now.
• Stocks – The US markets rallied yesterday (+0.73% to +1.05%). Movers – #SI -57.72%, TSLA –5.85% & CRM +11.50%. US500 +0.76% (+29.96) 3981, US500 FUTS lower at 3975 now.

• Commodities – USOil – Futures tested to $78.50 yesterday and holds at $78.00 now, and up over 3.00 for the week. Gold – rallied again yesterday from $1830 support and trades at $1843 now.
• Cryptocurrencies – BTC – tanked overnight by as much as -6% as Coinbase (-1.5%) declined payments to or from Silvergate Capital (-57.72%). Tested under $22k today to $21.85k before recovering to $22.3k now.

Today – EZ/UK/US Composite & Services PMIs, US ISM Services, Speeches from Fed’s Logan, Bostic, Bowman, Barkin & ECB’s de Guindos.



Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) AUDUSD (+0.36%). Rallied from a test into the 0.6700 zone yesterday to 0.6760 now. Wednesday’s 0.6780 high is next key resistance. MA’s aligned higher, MACD histogram & signal line positive & rising, RSI 59.30 & rising, H1 ATR 0.00112, Daily ATR 0.00752.




Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 6th March 2023.

Market Update – Risk Apettite ahead of a massive week!


China set a modest target for economic growth this year of around 5% on Sunday, and is poised to implement the biggest government shake-up in a decade. Disappointing the markets! USD under pressure. Yields decline and Stocks extend rally today after Friday’s strong close. Stronger than expected data releases have revived tightening speculation and kept a lid on local stocks.

Rate–sensitive tech shares outperformed in Japan, just like in the US, after comments from Richardmond Fed President Thomas Barkin that inflation is “likely past peak,” which helped to rein in long-term Treasury yields from multi-month highs. A day earlier, Atlanta Fed chief Raphael Bostic hinted that a peak in rates may come in summer.

• USD under pressure retested 104.34 low. EUR extends to 1.0640, for a 2nd day in a row. JPY dipped 135.30 but has inclined to 135.70 now. Sterling jumped to 1.2040 but failed to exit February’s range.
• Stocks – The US markets rallied amid overtightening comments from FED officials. Movers – US500 +0.76% 4054, US100 +0.76% 12341, US30 +0.76% 33408, GER40 up 0.2%, UK100 futures are flat.

• Commodities – USOil – holds gains above $78.80 from EIA small supply gain seen last week and as markets weigh prospects for China demand after latest economic data. Gold – had its best week since mid-January amid soft USD. Currently at $1858.20.
• Cryptocurrencies – BTC – tanked on Friday to 21,858 amid Silvergate Failure (Silvergate Halts Crypto Payments After Suffering $1 Billion Loss). Currently recovering above $22k.

Today – Eurozone January retail sales, February S&P Global PMIs for Germany, France and Eurozone, Canadian Ivey PMI and US Factory Orders.



Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) GBPCHF (-0.49%). Dipped to 1.2128 on EU open. MA’s aligned lower, MACD histogram turn negative & signal line is at 0, RSI 29 & falling, H1 ATR 0.00116, Daily ATR 0.00776.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 7th March 2023.

Market Update – Buoyed investor sentiment ahead of Powell.


USD under pressure, Yields slightly higher buoyed by investor sentiment which also boosted Stocks after they sagged through US session. (Reuters) – China’s exports & imports dropping for January-February pointed to continued weakness in demand for the country’s products & foreign demand, backing government concerns that a global slowdown will be felt at home. RBA raised rates to 3.60% from 3.35% the highest in more than a decade but suggested it might be nearly done tightening as consumer spending was slowing and there was less risk of a wages-driven inflation blow-out. The bid fell out of the markets as trading turned more cautious post weak trade data which weighed on Chinese stocks and ahead of Fed Chair Powell’s Testimony.

• Futures traders are pricing in a 76% probability the Fed will raise rates by 25 basis points at its March 21 to 22 meeting and a 24% likelihood of a 50 bp increase.
• USD holds at 10-day low area at 104.12 now. Euro retests 1.07, Sterling jumped to 1.2062 above 20-DMA. Aussie at a more than 2-month low of 0.6690.
• Stocks – JPN225 +0.25% at 28,309 – US500 at 4058, US100 +1% at 12348, US30 +0.12% 33487.META will cut thousands of jobs as soon as this week in a fresh round of layoffs.

• Commodities – USOil – jumped to $80.93. China’s crude oil imports fell 1.3% in the first two months of 2023 from a year earlier, data showed on Tuesday, but analysts pointed to accelerating imports in February as a sign that fuel demand was rebounding after Beijing scrapped COVID-19 controls. Gold – slightly higher at $1850.98.
• Cryptocurrencies – BTC – steady at $22k.

Today – Fed Chair Powell’s Testimony first to the Senate Banking Committee, and then to the House Finance Committee tomorrow. He is expected to reiterate the Fed’s hawkish stance of higher for longer rates.



Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) GBPAUD (+0.50%). Rallied to 1.7982. MAs aligned higher, MACD histogram & signal line extend higher, RSI 75 & rising, H1 ATR 0.00271, Daily ATR 0.01426.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 8th March 2023.

Market Update – Fed is prepared to “speed up”.


USD rallied to 105.85 during Powell’s hawkish speech and holds above 105.57 since then. Yields rose and stock markets remain under pressure. The Nikkei was a notable exception overnight, with a 0.5% gain. Curves are inverting further in Germany and the US as concern that overly aggressive central bank action will hurt the recovery returns. The curve inverted to -104 bps, the most since 1981, from -93 bps.

A more hawkish than expected stance from Fed Chair Powell saw Treasury yields spike and Wall Street sink, while the dollar firmed. Although Powell did not really say anything new as he reiterated the “higher for longer” policy mantra, he did open the door for a return to a more aggressive 50 bp rate hike and the markets jumped through it. BlackRock sees ‘reasonable chance’ of Fed raising rates to 6%.

• USD at 105.66 now. Euro drifted to 1.0544, Sterling broke 4-month support to 1.1861, below 20-WMA. Yen spiked to 137.54 on US Dollar strength.
• Stocks – US500 tumbled 1.53% to close under the 4000 mark. The US100 slid -1.25%. The US30 dropped -1.72% with losses accelerating after the break below 33,000.

• Commodities – USOil – massive sell off from $80.95 to $77.13 on fears that more aggressive US interest rate hikes would hit demand. API shows US crude stocks fall helped oil to find a floor, while USD rise keeps lid on oil. Gold – 1-week low (-1.9%) at 1814.22.
• Cryptocurrencies – BTC – at $21936.

Today – Fed Chair Powell’s Testimony to the House Finance Committee. US ADP, & BoC rate decision.



Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) XAUUSD (-1.9%). Plummeted to 1809. MAs flattened, MACD histogram & signal line remain well below 0, RSI 30 & flat, H1 ATR 2.32, Daily ATR 18.25.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 9th March 2023.

Market Update – The DAMAGE has been done!



The damage from the Fed has been done and fears of an upshift to a faster pace of rate hikes this month, along with an even higher terminal rate and for a longer period of time, saw yields cheapen further. ADP and JOLTS showed a still hot labor market. USD steady at 105.60, Treasury yields nudged higher overnight, as did JGB rates ahead of the current BoJ meeting.The curve inverted further to -108 bps from -104.8 bps Tuesday, the most inverted since 1981. BOC left the policy rate unchanged at 4.50%, a tie for the highest rate since 2007 and indicated it would continue its quantitative tightening strategy.

Overnight: China’s Feb consumer inflation slowed (1.0% from 2.1%), Producer deflation deepened. In Japan Kazuo Ueda nomination as the next central bank governor was approved, signing off on a new leadership that will be tasked with steering a smooth exit from ultra-loose monetary policy.

• USD hovers near 3-month high at 105.66 now. Euro held 1.0520 floor, Sterling at 1.1850. Yen gained some ground against USD, pullback to 136.60. The Loonie lost some ground, but is recovering with USDCAD at 1.3820 (4-month high)
• Stocks – US100 rose by 0.40% to close to 12,252. The US500 +0.14%. The US30 dropped -0.18, slid to 32,740 today.

• 

• Commodities – USOil – extended losses to $76.19. Steady today below PP at $76.70, as US crude stocks fell 1.7 million barrels (more than expected) and hopes for China demand (China’s crude oil imports fell 1.3%) contended with worries that more aggressive US interest rate rises would slow economic growth and dent oil consumption.
• Gold – in a tight range at $1811-$1816. Ahead of Jobs Gold may bounce to $1,825 before falling towards Feb. 28 low.
• Cryptocurrencies – BTC – below 50-DMA, retests at $21,536. Key supports at Feb low at 21,280 and year’s gap (19,888-20,350).

Today – US Initial Jobless claims.



Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) CADJPY (-0.49%). Plummeted to 98.99. MAs aligned lower, MACD histogram & signal line remain well below 0 and falling RSI 35 but flat, H1 ATR 0.137, Daily ATR 0.729.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 10th March 2023.

Market Update – Stock Tumbled!
Blame is on Banks!



It is not only the Fed this time but also the US Banks and more precisely the SVB Financial Group SIVB which drifted by -60.41% yesterday. Shares of SVB, the parent of Silicon Valley Bank, disclosed the loss and sought to raise $2.25 billion in fresh capital by selling new shares. The 4 biggest US banks lost $47 bln in Market Value! (BoA, Citi, JP Morgan, Wells Fargo). Jobless Claims unexpectedly ticked up. Germany February final CPI remains sticky at +8.7% vs +8.7% y/y prelim. UK January monthly GDP +0.3% vs +0.1% m/m expected.



Overnight: BoJ left policy unchanged, as universally anticipated, in Governor Kuroda’s final meeting. The policy rate was left steady at -0.1%, along with a 0.5% cap on the 10-year JGB yield (YCC).The vote was a unanimous 9-0. JGB & Nikkei (-1.67%) sinks overnight, the Kuroda swansong maintains Yield Curve Control with no tweaks and outlook remains as Dovish as ever. China’s Xi Jinping takes third term as President with eye on US.

• USDIndex gapped down to 104.62 low.
• VIX climbed 18%, the biggest jump since June, to 22.42.
• Euro jumped to 1.0590, Sterling up at 1.1950. Yen jumped to 136.96 from 135.80. USDCAD at 1.3850 high.
• Treasury yields plunged Thursday, first richening on the cooling in weekly jobless claims, then extending lower as Wall Street slumped sharply. Technical buying also supported the rally in Treasuries.
• Stocks – US100 dove by -2.05%. The US500 -1.85%. The US30 dropped -1.66%. Russell slid -3%, Topix Banks -5.83%. PacWest Bancorp fell 25%, and First Republic Bank lost 17%. Charles Schwab Corp. fell 13%, while US Bancorp lost 7%. America’s biggest bank, JPMorgan Chase & Co., fell 5.4%. Twitter and Elon Musk face legal risks in FTC Probe. Tesla (-4.99%).
• USOil – dips to $74.93.
• Gold – rebounds to $1834.79 but looks to be capped around here by the hawkish Fed outlook.
• Cryptocurrencies – BTC – below $20K, filled January’s gap! Next supports at 2022 bottom!

Today – NFP and Canadian Labor data!



Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) VIX(+18%). Spiked to 22.42. MAs are now flat, MACD histogram & signal line remain well above 0, RSI 79 but flat, Stochastics falling, H1 ATR 0.36, Daily ATR 1.24.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 14th March 2023.

Market Update – Markets brace ahead of Inflation!


The fallout from the failure of SVB and Signature Bank has been far and wide, rattling global markets. Much of the focus now is on upcoming central bank actions and whether policymakers will be hesitant to add to market volatility with additional rate hikes.

Wall Street was all over the board and finished mixed. Equities opened on the backfoot after steep declines overnight and amid losses of -2% in European bourses. Stocks slumped in Asia. Major US regional bank stocks suffered their largest decline in three years, FRC -61.83%, Credit Suisse fell by 15% (withdrew $120 billion in the three months to Dec. 31).

With the creation of the new “BTFP” to backstop the financial system, Treasuries garnered a very strong flight to safety bid, and especially at the front end of the curve. The markets also repriced Fed rate hike expectations, taking out the prospects for further aggressive action, and pricing in rate cuts later in the year. US Dollar was generally weaker through the session.

Investors bet against the 2-year Treasury en masse, expecting its yield to continue climbing. That was the worst three-day rout since the days after Black Monday in 1987 eventhough it was not maintained.

• USDIndex fell to 103.48 with losses against its G10 peers. Today slightly higher.
• Yields – The 2-year had its biggest slide since 2008, to a low of 3.935%. It closed at 3.984%, the lowest since mid-September and is 113 bps richer just from Wednesday’s 5.07% peak, which was the highest since 2007. The 10-year closed at 3.568%.
• VIX climbed to 28.35 before retracing to 24.47.
• Euro settled slightly below 1.07, Sterling held gains at 1.2160 (no impact from tight labor data). Yen picked up a strong haven bid to 133.00.
• Stocks – US100 posted a +0.45% gain, US500 -0.15% lower, US30 closed in red -0.28%.
• 
• USOil – held losses ahead of key inflation data as the biggest US bank collapse since 2008 continued to ripple through financial markets. It is at $74 rising 0.65%.
• Gold – surges lower after 5% rally to $1914. Currently at $1909.
• Cryptocurrencies – BTC surges by 12% spiking to $24,815.
  • Ether also climbed 6% to $1,693.

Today: US CPI report could give the FOMC the chance to remain sidelined, or at least decide on a 25 bp hike versus the 50 bps that was firmly priced in last Wednesday.



Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) VIX (+6.94%). Spiked to 28.55 before settling below PP at 24.47.
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 15th March 2023.

Market Update – March 15 – Can the bounce back hold?


The USD tested into 20-day lows again as Stock markets recovered (NASDAQ +2.14%) from 3 big down days following the SVB shock. US CPI cooled to 6% from 6.4% (as expected), however the CORE figure for February actually rose and demonstrates the “stickiness” of Services inflation in particular. Fed Funds Futures see an 81.2% chance of a 25bp hike next week from the FED. Overnight: The BOJ Mins. confirmed commitment to super easy policy noting a rising inflation picture, Chinese Unemployment surprisingly increased to 5.6% as Retail Sales recovered strongly to 3.5% from –1.8%.

• FX – USDIndex has dipped again to test the 103.00 zone today, last Wednesday it was at 105.85. EUR holds over 1.0700 and has breached 1.0750 today. JPY holds over 134.00 but remains capped by 135.00 today. Sterling ahead of the UK Budget today holds at 1.2150 after testing 1.2200 highs on Monday & Tuesday.
• Stocks – The US markets rallied yesterday (+1.06% to +2.14%) as tech companies recovered and Banks bounced. Movers: FRC +27%, SCHW +9.19%, META +7.25%, (another 10k job losses) TSLA +5.03%. BANCORP -3.43%, AMC -5.20%. US500 +1.68% (+29.96) to recover 3900 to close at 3920, US500 FUTS higher at 3925 now.

• Commodities – USOil – Futures collapsed some –4% yesterday, posting new 2023 & 2022 lows at $70.72. It has since recovered +1.35% to recent support levels at $72.20, which could now act as resistance. Gold – holds the key psychological $1900 level, up some $90 an ounce from tests of $1809 last week.
• Cryptocurrencies – BTC breached both $25 & $26K yesterday to test a 9-mth high at $26.3k. Currently it trades below $25k at $24.8k.

Today – EZ Industrial Production, US NY Fed, PPI & Retail Sales, UK Spring Budget, IEA OMR, NZ GDP.



Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) EURJPY (+0.59%). Continued the rally today from Monday’s low under 141.500 back to test 145.00 now. MA’s aligned higher, MACD histogram & signal line positive & rising, RSI 71.53, OB & rising, H1 ATR 0.222, Daily ATR 1.377.



Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 16th March 2023.

Market Update – March 16 – all Eyes on Zurich…and Frankfurt.


Trading Leveraged Products is risky

Concerns over Credit Suisse added to the fallout from the collapse of SVB, Signature Bank and Silvergate. And though there have been problems at the big Swiss bank for years, fears of a global contagion exacerbated investor jitters. The Bank was down -30% at one point – closed -14%. The Swiss authorities will offer a loan of $54bn to try to prevent collapse and the stock is +35% pre-market. A risk off mood has raced around the World and holds for now.

USD, CHF, JPY & Gold had safe haven bids and the short end of the yield curve collapsed with the 2-yr falling the fastest in decades. Stock markets recovered from 2023 lows into close after heavy losses on open (NASDAQ +0.05%). Asian markets lower (-0.80% to -2.12%), US PPI & Retail Sales both undershot expectations, and the UK Budget focused on pensions and childcare as millions of workers continued to strike. Overnight: Japanese Machine Orders and the Trade Balance were both much better than expected and in Australia Unemployment dropped to 3.5% as jobs soared to 65K from a decline of 11k last month. NZD GDP missed at -0.6% q/q vs. -0.2% and 2.2% y/y vs. 3.3%.

• FX – USDIndex rallied over 150 pts to 104.70 yesterday and has eased to 104.20 now. EUR tanked from over 1.0750 to under 1.0520 before recovering 1.0600 today. JPY holds over 133.00 now but ranged from 135.00 to 132.40 yesterday. Sterling tanked from 1.2150 to test the key 1.2000 yesterday and trades at 1.2070 now.
• Stocks – The US markets opened 1-2% lower but recovered into close (-0.87% to +0.05%) Movers: SCHW +5.06%, XOM -4.97%, CVX -4.33%. US500 -0.70% (-27.36) to 3892, US500 FUTS +0.95% higher at 3930 now.

• Commodities – USOil – Futures collapsed some -6% again yesterday, following a -4% fall on Tuesday to touch $65.70 lows last touched December 2021. It has since recovered to $67.80. Gold – holds the key psychological $1900 level, at $1920 down from yesterday’s 6-week $1935 high.
• Cryptocurrencies – BTC dipped to $24k from $25K yesterday and trades at $24.5k now.

Today – US Building Permits/Housing Starts, Export/Import Prices, Weekly Claims, ECB Policy Announcement & Press Conference.




Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) AUDUSD (+0.60%). Continued the rally today from yesterday’s low under 0.6600 back to test 0.6660 now. MA’s aligned higher, MACD histogram & signal line negative but rising, RSI 59.56 & rising, H1 ATR 0.00154, Daily ATR 0.00782.




Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 17th March 2023.

Market Update – March 17 – Another day another bank bailout.



A private ($30 bln) “rescue” of First Republic Bank by a consortium of 11 big banks helped ease concerns over a full blown financial crisis. Their efforts were rewarded yesterday, as risk appetite improved and investors returned to Wall Street, lifting the major indexes sharply. USA100 jump 2.48% and is up 7.95% from Monday’s nadir, the US500 advance 1.76%, and the USA30 was 1.17% firmer. A risk off mood that raced around the world this week has cooled. Asian markets are firmer too (Hang Seng leads at +1.44%) and European FUTS are also in positive territory.

USD & Treasuries have cooled as yields recover. The 2-year jumped 27 bp to 4.155% and the 10-year was up 12 bp to 3.569%, back over the 4.00% and 3.5% levels, respectively. The curve bear flattened to -59 bp from -44 bp on Wednesday and versus -108 bp a week ago.

ECB delivered a 50 bp rate hike, and stuck to its guns, despite the turmoil in financial markets this week. The guidance on future moves was not surprisingly dropped though and the ECB stressed that future decisions will be data dependent. Ms. Lagarde’s Press Conference emphasised the data dependency approach.

US Data & Overnight: US Weekly Claims fell again (192k vs. 212k) and the Housing Data was also better than expected. Japanese Tertiary Industrial Activity rose significantly too (0.95 vs -0.4% last month).

• FX – USDIndex has dipped to test 103.50 today from 104.70 highs on Wednesday. EUR tanked to 1.0550 lows as the ECB announcement was digested, before rallying to 1.0660 now. The 1.0600-1.0700 range remains key. JPY spiked below 132.00, rallied to 133.75 and is back to 133.00 now. Sterling rallied over 1.2100 yesterday and trades at 1.2160 now.
• Stocks – The US markets rallied (+1.17% to +2.48%) Movers: SCHW -2.80%, FRC rallied +10% (but lost –17% after hours). Tech giants gained over 4% MSFT, AMZN & GOOG . US500 +1.67% (+68) to 3960, US500 FUTS higher too 4000 now.

• Commodities – USOil – Futures tested the 15-mth low at $65.70 again yesterday before recovering to $69.00. Gold – holds the key psychological $1900 level, at $1930 down from yesterday’s 6-week $1935 high.
• Cryptocurrencies – BTC has again rallied over $25K & $26k to $26.5k now.

Today – EZ HICP (Final), US Industrial Production, Leading Index Change, Univ. of Michigan (Prelim.) and Quad Witching.



Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) NZDUSD (+0.95%). Continued the rally today from yesterday’s low under 0.6150 back to test 0.6250 now. MA’s aligned higher, MACD histogram & signal line positive & rising, RSI 71.00, OB & rising, H1 ATR 0.00128, Daily ATR 0.00766.




Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.