HFMarkets: New market analysis services.

[HFM.]

Date : 15th December 2022.

Market Update – December 15 – FED: Inflation Remains Public Enemy No. 1.


The FED, as expected, announced a 50 bp increase in the federal funds rate to place it in a target range of 4.25%-4.50% (the highest level in 15 years – since 2007). Powell pointed out that “We have more work to do” and that “there is a long way to go” expecting “continued increases”. The first is expected to be 25bp in February, which “will depend on incoming data” and from there the pace will be set taking into account “the cumulative tightening of monetary policy”. 17 of 19 members expect the terminal rate to be over 5.1% during 2023, and “there are no rate cuts in the projections for 2023” and that there will not be until the Fed “has full confidence that inflation is continually falling to the target” , for which it will have to“maintain restrictive rates for a sustained period of time”.

The higher for longer mantra continues – its not the rate of increase but how long it remains elevated. Sounded Hawkish but markets not convinced.

• The USD Index gyrated on the FED announcement moving north of 104.00 but dipped to new 6-mth lows at 103.33 before recovering to 103.85 now. US Stocks rallied on open again but fell post FED and by close were lower (-0.42-0.76%). Yields held at lows too as Treasuries held on to Tuesday’s gains, 10yr closed at 3.503%. Commodities were mixed (Gold under $1800 but USOil holds over $76.50, from $77.50). Asian stocks are mostly lower in the aftermath of the FOMC and disappointing Chinese activity data.
• EUR – rotates 50 bps higher over 1.0600 at 1.0650 now, ahead of ECB later today.
• JPY – sank to 134.50 lows, ahead of the FED, spiked to 136.00 then dipped to 134.80 as Powell spoke and is back to 135.80 now. – Weak JPY (Trade) & Chinese (Ind. Production & Retail Sales) data and strong AUD jobs numbers.
• GBP – Sterling rotated a whole big number from 1.2445 to 1.2345 and trades at 1.2388 ahead of an expected 50 bp rate hike from the BoE today.
• Stocks – Wall Street rallied but then closed lower – US500 -24.33 (-0.61%) 3995, and slips below 4000 again. Big movers included TSLA -2.58%, COIN -3.88%, AMD -3.80%. FUTS trades at 4012 now.

• USOil – Rallied to $77.54, post FED having touched $75.50 following huge inventory gains of 10.2 million barrels, trades at the key $76.50 now.
• Gold – Spiked down to $1795, rallied to $1815 and trades at $1788 now, unable to hold the $1800 handle.
• BTC – Sentiment woes continue from Binance & SBF but the weaker USD saw a peak over $18.3k, before a crash to $17.7k now. – FTX bankruptcy lawyers say they -“do not trust” – Bahamas government.

Today – US Weekly Claims, Retail Sales & Industrial Production, BoE, ECB, Norges Bank, SNB & Banxico Policy Announcements, European Council Meeting, Press Conferences with ECB’s Lagarde, Norges Bank’s Bache & SNB’s Jordan.





Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) AUDUSD (-0.59%) fell from highs over 0.6885 yesterday to test 0.6825 today. MAs aligned lower, MACD histogram & signal line negative and falling. RSI 39.22 & falling, H1 ATR 0.00183, Daily ATR 0.00935.



Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 16th December 2022.

Market Update – December 16 – Ms Lagarde the most Hawkish of All.


Following the FED’s hawkishness on Wednesday, the ECB took it a step further. The central bank may have slowed down the pace of tightening moves, but the statement made very clear that this is not a sign that rates are anywhere close to the peak and that there will have to be further “significant” tightening to bring rates to restrictive level, in order to dampen demand and thus help to bring inflation down. “This is not a pivot, we are in it for the long game”. EUR rallied & Yields on short term credit erupted (2yr German yields moved 24.2bp – the most in a single day since 2008) and the DAX lost –3.28%. 7 other central banks (including BOE) also rose rates yesterday all commenting on the scourge of inflation. A big Risk-Off day. The AUD tanked 2.4%, the Yen lost 1.7%, Gold was down 1.7% and USOil was off 1.8%.

• The USD Index rallied from 104.80 blows to retake the key 105.00 band trades at 105.30 now. US Stocks tanked (-2.25%-3.2%) Yields held at lows too as Treasuries held on to gains, 10yr closed at 3.47% and are lower no at 3.45%. Asian stocks are also lower in the aftermath of CB week (Nikkei -1.87%) and more grim Chinese covid narratives…”Beijing death toll mounts as Covid sweeps through Chinese capital”, “Beijing urged to roll out Covid boosters to avoid 1mn deaths”.
• EUR – rotates over 1.0600 at 1.0650 now, having spiked to 1.0720 post ECB.
• JPY – rallied from 135.25 lows, to spike over 138.00 and now trades at 137.30. This week’s low was 134.50.
• GBP – Sterling collapsed from 1.2425 to 1.2150 as the BOE vote was split with 6 members agreeing on the 50bp hike and one voter wanting to go with 75bp, however 2 voted and will have argued strongly for no change. Markets hate uncertainty, but conversely, they also hate “group think”. The FTSE100 also closed -0.93%. UK Retail Sales today missed significantly (-0.4% decline vs a 0.3% gain).
• Stocks – Wall Street collapsed (NASDAQ worst performer -3.2%) – US500 -99.57 (-2.5%) 3895, and slips below the key pivot at 3900 again. Big movers included the biggest of all APPL -4.69%, META -4.47%, NVAX -34.30%. FUTS trades at 3895 now.

However poor the prospects of a Santa Rally may appear, history is still on its side.

• USOil – Rallied to $77.54 again before falling to $75.25 and trades at $75.70 now.
• Gold – Collapsed into the key $1780 and cannot hold that level today, trading at $1775.
• BTC – Sentiment woes continue the biggest coin trades at $17.4k today.

Today – EZ, UK & US Flash PMIs, EZ HICP (Final), Quadruple Witching.



Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) AUDJPY (-0.40%) muted moves in FX following yesterday’s huge moves. Fell from highs on Tuesday at 93.35 to test 91.80 today. MAs aligned lower, MACD histogram & signal line negative and falling. RSI 35.45 & falling, H1 ATR 0.177, Daily ATR 0.935.





Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 19th December 2022.

Market Update – December 19 – Covid outweighs Reopening.

• The USD Index is hovering around 104.00 bottom, despite the renewed rise in the Treasury yield. Global stock markets made a wobbly start to the final full trading week of 2022, with the prospect of interest rates rising further next year taking the edge off festive cheer, and with concerns over China Covid Outbreak. Asian yields dipped, while US Yields also held at lows as Treasuries continued to rise, 10yr is up 3.1 bp at 3.51%. Asian stocks have remained under pressure, with concern over China’s Covid count also weighing.
• China officially reported its first coronavirus-related deaths since the unwinding of some of the strictest pandemic control measures earlier this month.

Chinese authorities have warned of three successive waves of Covid infections over the coming months, as cases continue to surge after the lifting of restrictions earlier this month. Only 42.3% for people aged 80 and above got the booster.

• EUR – up at 1.0640 now & GBP stuck at 1.2160-1.22 area.
• JPY – extends lower to 135.80, with Yen be the biggest gainer of the day as speculation building that the Bank of Japan, which meets on Monday and Tuesday, is eying a shift in its ultra-dovish stance in future.
• Elon Musk asked Twitter users to vote Sunday on whether he should step down as head of the social-media platform and pledged to abide by the results. Plus Twitter said it would no longer allow “free promotion of certain social media platforms” like Meta Platforms Inc’s META.O Facebook and Instagram, Mastodon etc. on its sites.
• Stocks – The JPN225 declined more than -1%. Hang Seng and CSI 300 are down -0.9% and -1.5% respectively. US500 dropped 2% last week (-20% for the year) while today US & European indixes are managing slight gains, US500 rose 0.1%.

• USOil – drifts to $74.65
• Gold – was steady at $1,793
• BTC – remained trading below $17,000.

Today – There is a heavy calendar ahead as releases are condensed ahead of Christmas on Sunday. Housing reports will highlight as that has been one of the sectors most impacted by the Fed’s tightening. China is expected to deliver a key interest rate decision on Tuesday morning, after keeping the rate steady for three straight months. Japan as well.

Today: Germany Dec .Ifo survey, Eurozone Q3 labour market!



Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) USDJPY (-0.59%). MAs aligned lower, MACD histogram & signal line negative and falling. RSI 37 & falling, H1 ATR 0.33, Daily ATR 1.93.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 20th December 2022.

Market Update – December 20 – Pre-Christmas Surprise from BOJ.


Trading Leveraged Products is risky

• The USD Index is betwixt and between amid various drivers. It closed at 104.706, inside the day’s 104.931 to 103.50 range. The advent of the holidays and year end have lightened volume measurably too, exacerbating some of the moves in the markets. Stocks are in red against Decembers’ seasonality. Treasuries fell today, especially at longer tenors, after the Bank of Japan unexpectedly lifted a cap on 10-year yields and unleashed a sell-off across global bond markets.
• Yields: 10yr rose to 3.71% and 30-yr to 3.72%.
• The S&P 500 has risen in 73% of December since 1928, according to Dow Jones Market Data. As of Monday’s close, the S&P 500 had fallen 6.4% in December.
• EUR – tumbling between 1.0575-1.0650.
• JPY – surged to 132.66 after the BOJ said it would review its yield curve control policy and widened the trading band for the 10-year government bond yield in an unexpected tweak. (Policy is unchanged)
• AUD & NZD drifted also after BOJ announcement.
• Stocks – The NASDAQ tumbled -1.49%, with the S&P 500 falling -0.90%, while the Dow slid -0.49%. Nikkei closed with a -2.5% loss.
• USOil – drifts to $75.20 from $76.55.
• Gold – higher but still struggling to break the $1,800.
• BTC – retested again the $16,200 floor. – Sam Bankman-Fried to agree to US extradition after Bahamas court hearing.

Today – US Housing Starts & Building Permits, Canadian Retail Sales, EU Consumer Confidence and NZ Trade data.



Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) AUDJPY (-3.32%). Broke 8-month support extending to 88.30, below 50-week EMA. Intraday MAs keep pointing lower, MACD histogram & signal line negative and falling. RSI 22 & flat, H1 ATR 0.4920, Daily ATR 1.1611.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 21st December 2022.

Market Update – December 21.

• The USD Index stuck at 103.50 bottom. Stocks pick up overnight, after were pummeled Tuesday by the BoJ’s surprise hawkish tweak in its yield curve control. Yields: JGB 2-year rose above zero for the first time since 2015. 10-year Treasury yield cheapened 11 bps to hit 3.706%. The curve inversion unwound another 10 bps on the day to -57.9 bps and compares to the -84 bps two weeks ago.
• EUR -jumps 20 pips at the EU open higher to 1.0630. German GfK consumer confidence improved to -37.8, a tad better than anticipated. All in all a number that ties in with expectations for a shallow and short lived recession, rather than a protracted slowdown.
• JPY – trimmed -4% to 130.55. – Higher yields at home could make it more attractive for Japanese investors to repatriate some funds.

• Stocks – Nikkei lost a further -0.7% after the BoJ’s curve ball yesterday. The ASX bounced 1.3%, and China bourses are also higher – as are stock futures across Europe and the US. The NASDAQ flat at 33,230, with the S&P 500 at 3,868, & the Dow up by 0.25%. #TSLA collapse continues -8% yesterday.
• USOil – flat at $75, with Brent trading at $80.01 per barrel.
• Gold – higher held at $1,815.

Today – Canadian Inflation & US Consumer Confidence. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy is expected to travel to Washington to meet President Joe Biden.



Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) NZDUSD (-0.67%). Turned below 20-DMA. Intraday MAs flattened, MACD histogram & signal line negative and falling. RSI 40 & rising indicating a possible recovery or steadiness, H1 ATR 0.00151, Daily ATR 0.0084.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 2nd January 2022.

Market Update – January 2 – Markets drift on weak Chinese data & IMF Outlook.


With markets in Europe and North America closed today and only a few Asian markets open there was little direction on very limited volume. Weak PMI and Housing data from China on Saturday and a poor global outlook from the IMF yesterday start the New Year in the same down-beat way 2022 concluded. The Yen is the biggest gainer today.

China’s official Services PMI cratered -5.1 points to 41.6 in December after falling -2.0 ticks to 48.7 in November. This is a sixth consecutive monthly decline, a third straight month in contraction, and the lowest level since February 2020. It was at 52.7 a year ago. The December manufacturing index slid -1 point to 47.0 after falling -1.2 points to 48.0 previously. It too is a third month below the 50 expansion-contraction mark, and is the eighth month in 2022 below 50. It is also the weakest since February 2020s 35.7.

2023 is going to be a tough year as the main engines of global growth – the United States, Europe and China – all experience weakening activity. – IMF “tougher than the year we leave behind…China’s chaotic reopening is proving problematic”.

• The USD Index down at 103.00 levels, but in 2022 the USD was King once again.
• EUR – rotates back to 1.0700 levels today but tested 1.1500 highs and 0.9530 lows in 2022.
• JPY – the strongest today and trades at 131.00 and 10-day lows, 2022 saw a breach of 150.00 form 113.00 lows.
• GBP – Sterling traded over 1.4200 and under 1.0400 in a volatile (3 x Prime Minister, 5 x Finance Minister) 2022 for the UK. Today Cable holds over the key 1.2000 level at 1.2060.
• Stocks – Wall Street collapsed during 2022 into Bear market territory once more (NASDAQ -33.10%) and the US500 lost over 900 points (-19.44%) its worst year since 2008. The MSCI Global equity index lost 18.7%.

• USOil – Trades over $80.00, to start 2023. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine caused a spike to over $123.00 in February before falling to test $70.00 in December on weak global demand expectations.
• Gold – Trades at $1830 levels today. Rising Inflation and interest rates in 2022 had a rather muted impact on the precious metal. The war-inspired February spike to $2070 was followed during the rest of the year to October lows under $1620, before recovering $1800 in December.
• BTC – Sentiment woes continue. The biggest coin trades at $16,700 today after a tumultuous year which saw prices collapse from the $50,000 to the $15,000 level as the FTX saga broke.

Today – No Economic data due

Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) NZDJPY (-0.40%) muted moves in low volume FX markets. Continues to decline from last week’s rejection of 85.00, trades at 82.85 now, resistance at 83.00 and support at 82.50. MAs aligned lower, MACD histogram & signal line negative and falling. RSI 38.33 & falling, H1 ATR 0.173, Daily ATR 0.935.



Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 3rd January 2022.

Market Update – January 3 – JPY & Gold add to gains.


Trading Leveraged Products is risky

Markets are back to full-time today to kick-start 2023 with a key week topped by NFP data on Friday and undermined by the ongoing rise in Covid cases and deaths in China. Japan and New Zealand remain closed today, but in Asia the ASX (-1.3%) is the laggard whilst Chinese bourses are on a firmer footing (Shanghai Comp +0.8%, Hang Seng +2.1%), despite weaker manufacturing PMI data from Caixin (49.0 vs 49.4). In FX markets JPY is the notable gainer across the majors (USDJPY -0.77% @ 129.50 and 6-mth lows earlier) and the USD is receiving a bid as European markets get into full swing (EURUSD at 1.0570 from 1.0675).

• The USD Index remains capped by 103.50 today as the USD softens in early new year trading.
• EUR – rotates at 1.0570 now, having spiked to 1.0710 on Monday but unable to hold this key round number.
• JPY – moved lower again as the pivot from the BOJ becomes more baked-in to market thinking, the key 130.00 was breached earlier for the first time since June 2022.
• GBP – Sterling holds significantly over 1.2000 at 1.2070 in the first London trades of the year.
• Stocks – European and UK FUTS are higher and the US500.F trades at 3872 now, up from the 2022 close for the cash market at 3839.50.
• USOil – Rallied to breach and hold $80.00 yesterday and trades at $80.70 now.
• Gold – Has taken another leg higher today on USD weakness, continued CB rate hikes and subdued economic outlook. Breached $1830 in early trades and is testing the next resistance at $1850 now.
• BTC – Sentiment woes continue – the biggest coin trades at $16.7k today.

Today – German CPIs, Turkish CPI, UK & US final MFG PMI, US Construction Spending.



Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) EURJPY (-0.79%) into fourth consecutive day lower from 143.00 thighs last week to 138.30 today. MAs aligned lower, MACD histogram & signal line negative and falling. RSI 24.10 OS and still falling, H1 ATR 0.350, Daily ATR 1.823.



Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 4th January 2022.

Market Update – January 4 – USD & JPY hold gains, Stocks flat & Oil tanks.


The first full day of 2023 saw stocks flat, a bid for the Greenback & Yen, weaker EUR following softer German CPI data and Oil markets collapse on global growth worries. Treasuries are firmer with US10yr yields losing -2.61%. Overnight Asian stocks have traded mostly firmer despite the negative handover from Wall Street; Hang Seng outperformed whilst Nikkei lagged (-1.45%). AUD outperforms. “China pledges ‘final victory’ over COVID as outbreak raises global alarm” – RTS lead story.

• The USD Index rallied to 104.50 yesterday as the USD got a significant New Year bid in early European trades on increased volumes. Softer at 104.10 now.
• EUR – tanked to test 1.0520 after the German CPI and USD bid, back to 1.0580 now.
• JPY – hit new 7-mth lows under 130.00 at 129.50 on Tuesday before recovering to 131.40 highs today and trades at 130.40 now.
• GBP – Sterling sank to 1.1900 as USD rallied before recovering to the key 1.2000 today.
• Stocks – The US markets closed down (-0.40-0.76%). US500 -15.36 (-0.40%) at 3824 #TSLA -12.24% the worst performer. #APPL fell -3.74% and its market cap is now below $2 trillion level. XOM & CVX hit from a -4% collapse in Oil prices. US500.F trades at 3853 now.

• USOil – Tanked from $81.50 highs in early trades yesterday over 4% its biggest 1-day fall in over 3 mths on global demand concerns and China Covid cases. Trades at $76.45 now.
• Gold – Has taken another leg higher today on USD weakness, continued CB rate hikes and subdued economic outlook. Breached $1830 in early trades, is over the next resistance at $1850 and trades at $1858 now.
• BTC – Sentiment woes continue – the biggest coin trades at $16.8k today. Sam Bankman-Fried pleads not guilty in FTX fraud case; October trial set.

Today – German Import Prices, Swiss CPI, EZ Services and Composite Final PMIs, US ISM Manufacturing PMI, FOMC Minutes, Crude Private Inventories.



Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) AUDUSD (+1.08%). A volatile day yesterday took the pair down to under 0.6700 and today its has tested all the way back to 0.6850. MAs aligned higher, MACD histogram & signal line positive and rising. RSI 72.30 OB and still rising, H1 ATR 0.00198, Daily ATR 0.0091.



Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 5th January 2022.

Market Update – January 5 – FOMC: Inflation still Public Enemy No. 1.


The FOMC minutes continued to show inflation was the overriding concern. Participants generally noted that upside risks to the inflation outlook “remained a key factor” for policy. It was repeated that a restrictive stance would have to be maintained for a sustained period until inflation was “clearly” on a path toward 2%. US Data yesterday showed ISM Manufacturing PMI’s missing at 48.4, but Jobs Openings remaining very strong beating expectations at 10.46m. Kashkari called for 5.4% terminal rate.

• The USD Index held 104.00 yesterday as the USD steadied post FOMC mins. 104.20 now.
• EUR – back to test 1.0600. Germany November trade balance beats €10.8 billion vs €7.5 billion.
• JPY – rallied from new 7-mth lows under 130.00 yesterday to 132.50 now
• GBP – Sterling rallied to 1.2080 before sinking back to key 1.2000 today.
• Stocks – The US markets closed up (+0.40-0.76%). US500 -28.03 (0.75%) at 3853. TSLA +5.12%, BABA +13%, MSFT -4.37%.

• USOil – Tanked –9% Monday, Tuesday ($72.75 lows) and has recovered 1.1% today to trade at $73.50 ahead of inventories later
• Gold – Breached $1850 in early trades, rallied to $1860 and trades at $1850now.
• BTC – Sentiment woes continue – the biggest coin trades at $16.8k today. FTX’s former top lawyer aided US authorities in Bankman-Fried case.

Today – EZ Construction PMI, UK and US Services and Composite Final PMIs, EZ PPI, US Challenger Layoffs, Canadian Trade Balance, US Claims, US EIA Inventories, speeches from Fed’s Bostic and Bullard.



Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) EURAUD (-0.45%). Declined from 1.5660 pivot yesterday to test 1.5400, before recovering and rallying to test 1.5600 today. MAs aligned higher, MACD histogram & signal line positive and rising. RSI 52.00 & neutral, H1 ATR 0.00306, Daily ATR 0.01388.



Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 6th January 2022.

Market Update – January 6.


Trading Leveraged Products is risky
It was another “good news is bad news” trade with better-than-expected labor market reports boosting fears over a higher for longer stance from the FOMC. Hawkish Fedspeak added to the selloffs in stocks and bonds but supported the Dollar. Wall Street closed over -1.0% in the red and just off the day’s lows. Treasury yields spiked, led by the front end as the curve inverted further to -74.2 bps versus -67.2 bps Wednesday and the most since December 15. Tweaks in Fed policy outlooks remain a major driver for the markets, as heading into the key nonfarm payroll report today.

• The USD Index jumped above 105.00 and holds.
• EUR – back to 1.0500 bottom. German manufacturing orders plunged -5.3% m/m in November. German retail sales rose 1.1% m/m in November, less than hoped in light of the Black Friday sales, which are a relatively new phenomenon in Germany.
• JPY – has lifted to 134.20.
• GBP – under pressure to 1.1890.
• Stocks – The US100 dropped by -1.42%, with the US500 -1.16% and the US30 off -1.02%. Nearly all the S&P 500 sectors were in the red with the exception of energy. AAPL -1.06%, MSFT -2.96% & AMZN -2.37%.

• USOil – stuck at $73.80. Virus developments remained in focus and there is still speculation that China will add further support measures as the economy tries to cope with the impact of rising Covid-19 case numbers.
• Gold – extended lower at $1832, after Putin ordered a holiday ceasefire in Ukraine from January 6-7. Bullion has fallen from an overnight peak of $1859.04.

Today: Markets are now waiting for US payroll numbers and Eurozone inflation data, which are hoped to give further indications on the monetary policy path on both sides of the Atlantic.





Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) USDJPY (+0.73%). Above 134.00. MAs aligned higher, MACD histogram & signal line positive and rising. RSI 71 & neutral, H1 ATR 0.272, Daily ATR 1866.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 9th January 2022.

Market Update – January 9 – USD Index falls 9% from peaks.


Trading Leveraged Products is risky
Treasury and Wall Street soared on the heels of the NFP data where the net effect is a tempering in Fed rate hike expectations. The markets are cheering the cooling in wage growth and a softer but still resilient labor market. The erosion in the service sector is a bit ominous but adds to the belief that the FOMC will soften its stance with a 25-50 bp hike on February 1 following the 50 bp tightening in December.

The jump in the workforce and easing wage growth & further signs of an economy slowing down with services contracting for the first time in more than 2-1/2 years in December = US economy recession, & Fed on its hiking path but no need to do too much!

• The USD Index falls 9% from peaks. It drifted to 103.23 from 105.40 on Friday after the NFP. Fed funds futures are suggesting a 4.958% terminal rate in June.
• China’s re-opening of its borders – could add further pressure on USD.
• EUR – spiked to nearly 1.0700.
• JPY – slightly higher today at 132.16 from 131.20 bottom.
• GBP – gaining 0.42% to 1.2166, after spiking 1.5% on Friday.
• Stocks – The US markets surged. US500 +2.28% and USA100 +2.56%. APPL +3.68%, AMZN +3.56%, MSFT +1.18%.
• Treasury yields dove, led by the short end as the market priced out the more hawkish Fed bets. The 2-year rate plunged 20 bps to a low of 4.243%.
• 
• USOil – rose after Chinese announcement. Today trades at $75.30.
• Gold – reversed 60% from 2022 downleg. Breached $1880.
• BTC – rise to 17166.23.

Today – Fed’s Bostic and BOE’s Pill speak, Japan’s PM Kishida meets with France’s President Macron, Eurozone unemployment. Earnings season kicks off this week with the major US banks.

Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) AUDUSD (+0.78%). Trade-and-China sensitive AUD up to 0.6945 today. MAs flattened but MACD histogram & signal line remain positive and rising. RSI 67 but turns slightly lower, H1 ATR 0.00166, Daily ATR 0.0096.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 10th January 2022.

Market Update – January 10 – Wall Street in a dangerous game ahead of Powell, CPI, earnings.


Treasuries remained firm, yields finished off of their lows. Wall Street turned mixed in the afternoon after the US30 and US500 shed their advances. Hawkish Fedspeak from Bostic and Daly generated some cold feet and subsequent profit taking ahead of Fed Chair Powell’s comments later. The advent of $90 bln in coupon supply also weighed a bit.

The FOMC minutes warned that an “unwarranted easing in financial conditions” would complicate the Fed’s efforts to bring down inflation, and the big rally in bonds and stocks in recent sessions is not what the FOMC wants to see. Already there has been some push back from Daly and Bostic regarding boosting rates over 5%. Will Powell feel compelled to oppose market rallies?

• The USDIndex remained weak on the softer outlook on the FOMC, falling to a low of 102.94, though it closed at 103.19.
• EUR – steady above 1.0700.
• JPY – hovering around 132.10.
• GBP – closed above 20-day SMA, retesting 1.2200.
• Stocks – The US100 was up 0.63% at the close as tech found support from China’s reopening plays. The US30 dropped -0.34% and the US500 was off -0.08%. Wall Street is in the green with gains of about 1.5% to 2.4% for the year-to-date. The US500 is over 9.4% above its October low.

• USOil – 2.8% higher at $75.85 per barrel and Brent up 2.4% at $80.46. Optimism over China’s economic re-opening has been supportive, boosting demand expectations. China announced more financial support to households and governments in a bid to revive the economy.
• Gold – slightly lower at $1871 from $1881.

Today – Speeches: BoJ’s Kuroda, ECB’s Schnabel, BoC Governor Macklem and Fed’s Chair Powell.



Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) EURAUD (+0.24%). Spiked by 41 pips at the EU open. MAs slightly higher, MACD histogram & signal line remain positive and rising. RSI 68 but flattened, H1 ATR 0.0028, Daily ATR 0.01406.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 11th January 2022.

Market Update – January 11 – Dollar stands still ahead of Thursday’s CPI.


Treasuries were more unidirectional while Yields have crept higher led by the long end. The curve has bear steepened to -65.6 bps from -68 bps Monday and -74 bps before Friday’s data. Wall Street was very choppy, trading either side of unchanged, after a positive opening. Chair Powell did not comment on policy matters in his Riksbank remarks. But Governor Bowman echoed hawkish comments from others of late. Gains had been shed as the market is pushed and pulled by crosscurrents of Fed policy dynamics, recession uncertainties, and upcoming earnings reports. Stock markets moved higher in Japan and Australia, the latter helped by stronger than expected retail sales numbers, which helped to balance the uptick in inflation that sparked fresh rate hike bets.

• The USDIndex bounced to 103.35 from a low of 103.03, adding to some of the volatility in stocks.
• EUR – ranging between 1.0700 – 1.0760.
• JPY – neutral, hovering around 132.30
• GBP – holds Friday’s gains. Range at 1.2110 – 1.2210.
• Stocks – The US100, US30 and US500 are fractionally higher with +1.01%, +0.56% and +0.7% respectively. US100 remains stuck in the 10800-11400 range. Note the fact we are getting tighter and tighter inside the triangle like formation. The 100-day SMA and the negative trend line are the big resistance levels to watch, while 10800 is the “must hold” level.

• USOil – fell by -0.48% to $74.66 per barrel and down from the $80.26 to end 2022.
• Gold – up at $1884.60.

Today – Crude Oil Inventories & New Zealand Building Permits.



Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) XAGUSD (+1.46%). Spiked to R2: 23.93. MAs slightly higher, MACD histogram & signal line are close to zero. RSI 63 but flattened, H1 ATR 0.094, Daily ATR 0.589.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 12th January 2022.

Market Update – January 12 – Inflation Day.


Stock market sentiment remains supported ahead of the US inflation report, with markets starting to look past the current wave of tightening moves and buying into hopes that final rates will be reached sooner rather than later this year. Yields have come down and stocks are benefiting. Australia and New Zealand bonds bounced today with yields stabilizing after being pushed up by stronger than expected local inflation data yesterday.

• The USDIndex is tumbling, between 102.60-103.20 for a 3rd consecutive day.
• EUR – rallied to 7-month low to 1.0777.
• JPY – got a boost today on speculation about a BOJ stimulus tweak heading into next week’s policy meeting. Currently traded at 131.80 amid wider strength in the Yen.
• GBP – reversed from 1.2170.
• Stocks – US indices are up since yesterday amid bets that a mitigation in the pace of US consumer price gains will allow the Federal Reserve to dial back the pace of its rate hikes. The US100 spiked to 11489, breaking 50 DMA, US30 to 34134 and US500 to 3994. GER40 and UK100 futures are posting gains of 0.2% and 0.3% respectively.

• USOil – it’s been a rollercoaster for oil, having climbed over $77 on optimism on China’s reopening. It then fell to below $76 on the huge build in inventories, but then managed to extend gains above $78. That is the third large weekly increase on record (dating back to 1982), and a big miss from analyst expectations for a small decline.
• Gold – steady below $1885.

Today – US Inflation release.



Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) ETHUSD (+4.62%). Spiked to 1417.35, breaking W-pattern neckline at 1353. Fast MAs & RSI flattened but MACD histogram & signal lines remain positive. H1 ATR 13.75, Daily ATR 37.86.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 13th January 2022.

Market Update – January 13 – CPI as advertised, USD sank!


The December CPI report came in as advertised, indeed even better than expected for the headline. Treasuries saw strong gains, while there were more moderate gains on Wall Street. Overall inflation continues to come down & Fed Harker & Bullard comments boosted expectations the FOMC will further downshift rate hikes with a 25 bp increase seen in February. Yields dropped measurably. Futures markets have priced in 25 bp and several rate cuts this year.

• The USDIndex slumped to 101.79 yesterday. Today eased at 102.00.
• EUR – held above 1.0800.
• JPY – rallies to 7-month high as JGB yields also remain on bid on the anticipation of a potential policy shift. Nikkei down by 1.3%. USDJPY down by 2.7% last night.
• Reuters: A newspaper report flagging the possibility of more flexibility has redoubled bets on a coming shift out of ultra-easy policy that seeks to pin yields near zero.
• GBP – settled at 1.2200. UK GDP rose 0.1% in November. Figures showed that in the three months to the end of November, the economy shrank by 0.3%. If two consecutive quarters of contraction are confirmed then that could count as a recession.

• Stocks – Wall Street rallied too, with the US30 and US100 up 0.64%, and the US500 0.34% firmer. Strength in energy supported.
• USOil – held above $78.
• Gold – retests $1900.
• BTC surged 5% to break above $19,000.

Today – University of Michigan sentiment. Earnings: Bank of America, Citigroup, JPMorgan, Wells Fargo, BlackRock and Delta Air Lines.

Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) NZDJPY (-0.93%). Plummets to 81.95, from 84.36 high yesterday. Fast MAs aligned lower & RSI at 17, MACD histogram & signal lines extended lower. H1 ATR 0.203, Daily ATR 1.157.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 16th January 2022.

Market Update – January 16 – USD at 7 mth lows as YEN takes centre stage.


The BOJ meeting this week is dominating trades as the new week kicks-off. Japanese 10-yr yields trading at 0.51% above the BOJ ceiling and adding to the speculation that the ceiling could be raised to 1.0% on Wednesday. US stocks closed higher again on Friday and gained 2.3% last week. US markets are closed today and Asian markets are broadly higher expectations of China opening quickly even as COVID deaths hit record levels. The USD trades at 7-mth lows, GOLD at April 2022 highs, and BTC over $21k and 2-mth highs.

Week Ahead – BOJ Wednesday, US – Retail Sales, PPI, Empire & Philly Fed & Housing data. EZ – ZEW. UK – CPI, Jobs & Retails sales. CAD – CPI & Retail sales. AUD – Jobs. EARNINGS SEASON In full swing (Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs & Netflix headline).

• The USD Index tanked under 102.00 on Friday to close at 101.85.
• EUR – holds over 1.0800. The pair touched 1.0860 in early trades and back to 1.0835 now.
• JPY – dipped again touching 127.30 lows (last seen April 2022) in Asian trading, back to test 128.00 now.
• GBP – Sterling tested 1.2290 before slipping back to test 1.2225 support.
• Stocks – The US markets closed higher on Friday (+0.33-0.71%), following generally good Banking Earnings, tempered by cautious outlooks and job losses. US500 +16.03 (0.40%) at 3999. JPM +2.52%, COIN +5.11%, AMZN +2.99%. FUTS trade at 4018.

• USOil – rallied again to trade at $80.00 last week, up from January 5th lows at $72.30.
• Gold – the Bid remains strong as $1900 holds, and $1930 was tested in Asia, back to $1915 now.
• BTC – Weak USD helps to lift prices over $20k touching $21.3k today.

Today – Eurogroup Meetings, BOC Business Outlook, Speech from BOE’s Bailey – DAVOS meetings start, US markets closed for MLK day.



Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) NZDJPY (+0.27%). Bounced from a test of 81.00 on Friday and adds to gains today at 81.80 but is down from 88.00 highs in December. MAs flat, MACD histogram & signal line negative but rising. RSI 46.60 & neutral, H1 ATR 0.205, Daily ATR 1.185.



Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 17th January 2023.

Market Update – January 17 – USD Holds at 7-mth lows, Mixed data from China & UK.


Trading Leveraged Products is risky

Chinese GDP for 2022 at 3.0% missed expectations (5.5%) significantly and represented the slowest growth for the world’s second largest economy since 1976 and the end of the austerity of Mao Zedong. Q4 GDP beat expectations at 2.9% vs 1.8% but was still very weak. Retail Sales & Unemployment also beat at -1.8% vs. -9.5% and 5.5% vs. 5.8%, respectively. Japanese 10-yr yields still trade over the 0.50% above the BOJ ceiling ahead of BOJ tomorrow. The UK Jobs market remains v tight (Unemployment 3.7%) – Earnings up (6.4% vs 6.1%) but still way short of Inflation. (CPI & Retails Sales data tomorrow). German HICP inflation confirmed & unchanged at 9.6%.

• The USD Index recovered from under 102.00 at 101.70, to 102.15 now.
• EUR – holds over 1.0800. The pair touched 1.0875 on Monday (9-mth highs) and trades back to 1.0820 now.
• JPY – dipped again touching 127.20 lows, but is now back over 128.00 and has tested 128.80 today.
• GBP – Sterling tested 1.2290, slipped back to 1.2160 lows and has recovered 1.2200 following the UK data.
• Stocks – The US markets closed higher on Friday (+0.33-0.71%), following generally good Banking Earnings, tempered by cautious outlooks and job losses. US500 FUTS trade at 4002.
• USOil – rallied again to test $80.00 lbut has since slipped to $79.00 following the Chinese data.
• Gold – the Bid remains strong as $1900 holds, and $1930 was tested yesterday, the precious metal is back to $1910 now.
• BTC – Weak USD helps to lift prices over $20k and holds over $21k today.

Today – Canadian CPI, Speeches from Fed’s Williams, ECB’s Centeno & Chinese Vice Premier Liu. Earnings – Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley & United Airlines.



Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) CHFJPY (+0.53%). Bounced from a test of 137.50 zone on Friday and adds to gains today at 139.20 but is down from 149.00 highs in December. MAs aligned higher, MACD histogram & signal line positive & rising. RSI 66.80 & rising, H1 ATR 0.230, Daily ATR 1.856.



Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 18th January 2023.

Market Update – January 18 – BOJ Sticks to Accommodative Policy – YEN Dives.


BOJ keeps YCC policy unchanged, Kuroda “will not hesitate to increase easing if necessary”. DOVISH !! – Downgraded economic forecasts – Growth 2023 – 1.7% vs. 1.9% & 2024 1.1% vs. 1.5%. Inflation forecast raised to 1.8% vs. 1.6%. YEN tanked (USDJPY +2.6% at one point). Bonds rallied, the 10-yr JGB dropped to 0.36% from 0.52% yesterday. US Stock markets were mixed (DOW -1.14%, Nasdaq +0.14%) as Goldman Sachs Earnings disappointed. Asia markets and European FUTS also mixed. UK CPI confirmed at 10.5% (CORE CPI 6.3%)down from 10.7% in November but still at 40-year highs.

• The USD Index recovered from under 102.00 at 101.70, to 102.60 following BoJ, back to 102.10 now.
• EUR – holds back over 1.0800, following 1.0760 lows earlier and a rejection of this weeks high at 1.0870.
• JPY – Lows on Monday were 127.20 as speculation peaked, the Dovish “no change” outlook from Kuroda took the pair to 131.60 highs today. Back to 130.25 now.
• GBP – Sterling has breached 1.2300, following the CPI data and currently trades at 1.2325, a 23-day high.
• Stocks – The US markets were weak into close (-1.14% to +0.14%). Mixed news from Banks – GS -6.44%, MS +5.91%, TSLA +7.43%, RBLX +11.77% US500 FUTS trade at 4017.

• USOil – rallied again to test $81.00 following inventories and 2023 outlook upgrades.
• Gold – declined from $1930 highs on Monday to test $1900 today as USD lifts.
• BTC – Continues to hold over $20k this week and over $21k again today.

Today – US Retail Sales, PPI & Industrial Production, Speeches from Fed’s Bostic, Bullard, Harker & Logan,. Earnings – Charles Schwab, Prologis & Kinder Morgan.



Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) NZDJPY (+2.71%). Bounced from a test of 81.00 zone on Friday and adds to gains today at 84.80 highs. Following the Dovish BOJ. MAs aligned higher, MACD histogram & signal line positive & rising. RSI 75.36, OB & rising, H1 ATR 0.354, Daily ATR 1.301.




Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 19th January 2023.

Market Update – January 19 – Stocks sink, USD rises after weak data & JPY bounces back.


Weak data (Retail Sales & PPI) from the US added to recession worries – More Hawkish comments from a raft of FED speakers talking 5.25-5.5% terminal rates added to a safe haven bid for the USD, Stock markets to collapse (-1.24% to -1.81%) under key technical levels and speculators to back the YEN and push the BOJ once more. Bonds rallied, the US 10-yr yield dropped to 3.75%. Asia markets are lower and rangebeound & European FUTS are also mixed. NZD unmoved from surprise the PM Ardern will step down in Febrary ahead of October elections.

• The USD Index hit a new 7-mth low at 101.25, before the data and a recovery of the 102.00 handle.
• EUR – holds at 1.0800 now, following a new 8-mth high over 1.0870.
• JPY – Rip roaring day from 131.60 highs yesterday completely reversed and back to test 128.00 now.
• GBP – Sterling has breached 1.2400, following the US data and currently trades at 1.2335.
• Stocks – The US markets were weak into close (-1.24% to +1.81%). US500 -1.56% to 3928 and below 200 EMA and testing the 50MA. PNC -6.04%, UAL -4.57%, US500 FUTS trade at 3937.

• USOil – rallied again to test $82.50 before the US economic data and inventories took it lower to $79.00 where it holds now.
• Gold – has tested $1900 again today from highs of $1922 yesterday, trades at $1912 now.
• BTC – Continues to hold over $20k this week but has relinquished the $21k today to trade at $20.7k.

Today – Building Permits/Housing Starts, Weekly Claims, Norges Bank & CBRT Announcements, ECB Minutes, Speeches from Fed’s Williams, Brainard & Collins, ECB’s Lagarde, Schnabel & Knot, Earnings – Procter & Gamble and Netflix.





Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) AUDJPY (+1.41%). Rejected & reversed the post BOJ rally to 92.00, tanking close to 400 pips to test 88.00 lows. MAs aligned lower, MACD histogram & signal line negative & falling. RSI 22.87, OS & falling, H1 ATR 0.239, Daily ATR 1.278.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 20th January 2023.

Market Update – January 20 – USD Wallows, Stocks Weaker, Japanese Inflation at 41-year high.


Better US data (Unemployment Claims & Philly Fed Manu Index) could not lift the USD (USDIndex under 102.00) & Wall St. (-0.76% to -0.96%). US hit its latest debt ceiling ($31.4 trillion) as Republicans try to rein in Biden’s spending. Potential default postponed until June 5. More Hawkish comments from FED speakers (even key Dove Vice Chair Brainard) talking 5.00%+ terminal rates failed to rally USD. Bonds picked up, the US 10-yr yield dropped to 3.41%. Asia markets are higher ahead of Lunar New Year holidays with the huge Chinese population on the move and all the risks that that entails. Inflation in Japan hit a 41-yr high at 4.0% and the PBOC held rates at 3.65%. NETFLIX shares (-3.23%) rallied +7.12% after hours after subscriber numbers beat and CEO Hastings stepped down and moves to Chair.

• The USD Index rallied from 7.5 mth lows at 101.25, on Wednesday, held 101.70 yesterday but continues to break above the 102.00 handle.
• EUR – holds at 1.0825 now, having tested below 1.0800 yesterday, following a new 8-mth high over 1.0880 this week.
• JPY – Bounced from sub 128.00 lows at 127.80 and trades north of 129.00 following Japanese inflation data. Yen is the weakest of the G7 currencies today.
• GBP – Sterling was unable to hold the breach of 1.2400, this week but holds its bid at 1.2330 today. UK Consumer Confidence and December Retail Sales both missed significantly. BOE Governor Bailey put a positive spin on a possible quick decline in Uk inflation.
• Stocks – The US markets were weak again yesterday (-0.76% to -0.96%). US500 -0.76%, breached the key 3900 support, the 50 SMA & test the 20 SMA) to close at 3898. US500 FUTS hold 3900 at 3924.

• USOil – plunged to post the low of the week at $78.41 before inventories data showed a build of 8.4 million barrels (vs. an expected drawdown of 2.4 million barrels) and prices rallied to $81.50 and holds at $81.00 now.
• Gold – has hit 9-mth highs today at $1935 again today and trades at $1930 now. The spectre of CB’s reluctant to talk pivot and season factors help the key commodity.
• BTC – Continues to hold the $20k handle this week and is back to test $21k today.

Today – US Existing Home Sales, Speeches from ECB’s Lagarde & Elderson. Earnings – Ericsson (beat) Final day of WEF in Davos.



Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) AUDJPY (+0.21%). Rallied from a 400 pips reversal yesterday down to 88.00 to trade at 89.35 now. MAs aligned higher, MACD histogram & signal line positive & rising. RSI 22.87, OS & falling, H1 ATR 0.239, Daily ATR 1.278.




Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.