Great Depression 2 - Short trade of a Lifetime - preps start now

[deadbroke]

The first drop will be a southbound bar that will rock the dust off the 200-day m.a. and shake the 61.8% Fib support like a skeleton.

Then when this flimsy support breaks all Hell will break loose.

6 months from now the clowns at bulletin boards will return to say how they noo it all along.

Evidence? HISTORY.

Has this happened before? Every damn 70 years.

And the end result is the same as can be seen at T2W.

NOBODY ever sees anything coming and whence it came and when its gone they all claim in unison that they noo it all along and were prepared for it.


Forgive them Father for they know not what they do or say.

 

[deadbroke]

The persistent upward grind stinks of CORRECTIVE mode - low low volume grind violating the most basic of basics that volume goes with the trend.

The tsunami is setting up with the receding waters and no incoming wave - this lack of incoming wave has lulled the dopey beachgoers into a LalaLand pronouncement, "its a new era"

For the uninitiated the setup for a 3rd wave down must must must must first lure ALL fresh meat to climb on board - otherwise, by definition a 3rd wave would lack the power from it its name is derived - so to reiterate, to wreak the maximum damage to the HERD (that be you fellows) the inducements to climb aboard LONG gots to be so juicy that nobody can resist - except for one lone individual - his name be deadbroke.

Forgive them Father for they know not what they doeth.

 

[deadbroke]

Losses and all, bandages galore, but alive the deadone has taken the big swing starting December 20 or thereabouts and is waiting pay-shuntly for the payoff.

Breakeven will come on day one concomitant with the crash into the 200-day m.a.

What a country - what a job!!!

If this flies who the heck needs a regular job?

 

[deadbroke]

BAC hit the 23.6% retracement resistance.

Looking to re-enter SHORT sometime in the near future, a good sign will be if the
nice rally uptrendline breaks decisively. Its attracted to the 200-day at 8.40.

Using the 200-pd m.a. on 30-min. as a guide - if this breaks decisively, start SHORT.

 

[chrisaw]

Hi all, I am a new newbie and I am still absorbing all info at the moment. Can anyone advise on a good platform to start trading on.I will only want to start with about £300. Thanks in advance. Chrisaw

 

[deadbroke]

STAY SHORT - no change - DEFCON 4 continues.

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now switching from TA to FA and FA that nobody at T2W or Elitetrader could ever dream of uncovering and most likely even if they did they'd slide it under the rug and proclaim, "its a new era, one in which housing is not important" :lol

America's ATM (HOUSING), something that has allowed Americans to live as if there is no tomorrow and from paycheck to paycheck and rarely ever being more than 2 paychecks away from moving in with Mom or the Salvation Army - is injured deeply and no matter what anybody says, we also have the real unemployment rate at 22% - so combine that with America's ATM and you've got an Empire ballbreaker underway.

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We all know that home prices have dropped to below 2003 levels but only 10-20 people worldwide know the following .....................

Housing starts a sublime HDL component of total cholesterol is now at the level of 1922 even though the United States has 3 times the population.

Now there is more FA that nobody at T2W or Elite has uncovered.

And neither place has a single money loser until I visited. Everywhere else 97% of traders lose consistently but here and at Elite 100% win and win consistently.

Had we not gone off the Gold Standard in 1933, the Dow Jones would be at 126, i.e. the same level as it was in 1926. This means that since 1926 the Dow has made no net progress if the Dollar continued to be defined as a specific amount of gold.

For chartists I had a Dow versus Gold chart (will dig it up again) - every time I viewed it in the past, it always shocked me as to how the nominal Dow always followed the Dow/Gold sooner or later.

 

[deadbroke]

Is the circus listening?

I'll say it again ......

The nominal Dow (i.e. the Dow measured in dollars) never fails to follow the Dow/Gold (i.e. Dow measured in ounces of Gold)

Never fails to do so.

The only thing that T2W and Elite agree on is that Gold is the only real money there is.

Based on this then, the S&P500 has lost 87% since the 1999 - 2000 bullmarket top.

This confirms my hypothesis that we are in a Depression and have been in it since 1999 or 2000.

Throw in the true unemployment rate at 22% and it becomes more compelling.

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but I'm a technician. Therefore I wait for the Dow to turn decisively - the nominal Dow, that is.

 

[deadbroke]

FA

Real on the ground stunning info on a personal level .....

when dummies tell me that the Housing market has improved or is improving, I snore .... why?

because I am dependent on the new homeowner list that is sent to me every week - my area comprises 4 zip codes in So. Cal - back before the crashes etc., I used to get hundreds of new owners per week, now and for the last 2 years its been 20-30 per week.

Lucky for me, the 2008 crash killed 99.9% of the lions who were operating in my territory. Now there is just one left - the rest either died from starvation or moved far away to non-California dreaming.

Yeah baby, tough ain't even begins to describe how it really is on the ground - only the tigers (or lions) survive and even they have a hard time.

That's just the way it is.

This just don't happen in a bullmarket.

 

[deadbroke]

The FA cracks and fissures are way clear to the dead one.

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Back to the technican hat .....

STAY vehemently SHORT. DEFCON 4 continues.

 

[deadbroke]

a strong and high probability sign comes from Gold .... the Ending Diagonal Triangle

a swift move down if the triangle shatters - an EDT denotes the end of a sequence.

This gots to have significance for the Dow since they are all one gang against the dollar but Gold is the most powerful enemy of the dollar

And if the Dollar rockets north, this time the Dow soy-tenly will charge south like there is no tomorrow

 

[deadbroke]

Dow Jones 30-min. Ending Diagonal Triangle .... ?

 

[deadbroke]

Hi all, I am a new newbie and I am still absorbing all info at the moment. Can anyone advise on a good platform to start trading on.I will only want to start with about £300. Thanks in advance. Chrisaw

Give that 300 pounds to your wife and don't start trading. Turn back now and run from it as fast as you can. If you don't follow this advice now, then 10 years hence read this message again and weep tears of blood.

 

[Joules MM1]

you could take this act on the road........no really.......there's some quality material in here......even the elliotticians are cacking themselves........larry david is making new episodes based on your work: so, there's this guy who makes ending diagonals without even the half of the thing finishing.......like how would he know......

Larry David - Lemonade - YouTube

 

[new_trader]

Now there is more FA that nobody at T2W or Elite has uncovered.

And neither place has a single money loser until I visited. Everywhere else 97% of traders lose consistently but here and at Elite 100% win and win consistently.

Had we not gone off the Gold Standard in 1933, the Dow Jones would be at 126, i.e. the same level as it was in 1926. This means that since 1926 the Dow has made no net progress if the Dollar continued to be defined as a specific amount of gold.

For chartists I had a Dow versus Gold chart (will dig it up again) - every time I viewed it in the past, it always shocked me as to how the nominal Dow always followed the Dow/Gold sooner or later.

This is what I wrote around 6 months ago.

IMO: The USA is in a great depression and all the weak economic data supports this, but the market has been propped up by the FED's cheap money or 'stimulus' which is now wearing off and also coming to an end. However, Osama Ben Bernanke will not let his Wall Street buddies down, nor will he allow the President to be embarrassed in front of his woman. This is the beauty of fiat money, it allows Politics to 'triumph' over economics...but only in the short run.

To answer the question, the downtrend in real terms will continue, but in nominal terms, the sky is the limit! In S&P500 terms, I would be mildly surprised if it broke below 1250, but by the year's end I think it will be closer to 1400. There is nothing I'm seeing (yet) which makes me think this market is being liquidated so I have been adding to my portfolio on these 'dips' but I am picking my stocks wisely and in a currency that is gaining strength against the $US and £UK.

If I have read the market correctly (and there is always a chance I haven't) I figure it will be higher by the end of the year. This doesn't mean it won't go down further first, but I think there will be more stimulus if it does, you can almost Bernank on it!

I agree and that is why I think there hasn’t been much public participation in the stock market since the global financial crisis began. In regard to your view about the dollar and deflation, I think gold is replacing the dollar as the ‘flight to quality’ asset. The 5 day change for the S&P500 is (-2.2%), the dollar index is (-1.56%) and gold is +1.2%. As for the US raising interest rates, it will only make a difference if real interest rates are positive and is that likely to happen? The USA looks like it might lapse into another recession and has the FED ever tightened when the economy is that weak?

As far as deflation is concerned, when priced in real money (i.e. gold) there has already been deflation. In March 2009 when the stock market reached its lowest point the S&P500 was worth around 0.72 ounces of gold and today the S&P500 is worth about 0.84 ounces of gold, so the S&P500 hasn’t gained much in the last few years, 10 years ago the S&P500 was worth around 4.5 ounces of gold! If you compare the gold to S&P500 ratio from 1950 up until 1971 when the USA was on a gold standard you will notice that whenever the S&P500 costs less than an ounce of gold it is ‘cheap’ in relative terms. It is up to you to determine where you believe those ratios will meet.

Speculating is great fun!

 

[new_trader]

The only thing that T2W and Elite agree on is that Gold is the only real money there is.

You're joking aren't you? The majority of people in this forum are cretins that think paper is money and gold is just a commodity.

 

[deadbroke]

You're joking aren't you? The majority of people in this forum are cretins that think paper is money and gold is just a commodity.

Hahahahaha, give the singer some, man.

I'm sooo new here I'm taking T2W deliberately slow so as not to make a hasty decision and evaluation.

But each day I'm shocked more and more by the total asinine, hovine, bovine stuff I see here ... and this from a guy (yours truly) who is himself losing in this thread, haahahahahaha.

I've mastered EliteTrader, I now know it as good as or better than I noo my ex-wife and the latter was rotten to the core but I loved her, hehehehehehe.

 

[deadbroke]

This is what I wrote around 6 months ago.

You're kind of sloooooow if you only realized all this a mere 6 months ago.

Dig this, Sir - posted October 2009 as a newbie trader at the toilet known as EliteTrader - that is, 2 years + ago.

And dig this, it was all my own work as is everything else I do, including losing money, all my own fault but I do win on occassion aprox. once every century.

http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=...k9SeCg&usg=AFQjCNEV5nM8JN7YxcCjh0yFbd04uISBPw

 

[deadbroke]

This is what I wrote around 6 months ago.

Again, very very sloooow on your part but nevertheless better than the dopey HERD at T2W.

About 6 months ago its akin to a fellow drillin a girl and then YOU come along and say penetration has occurred.

The TOP that brought in DEFLATION was January 2000. The dead one acknowledged this as a newbie back in October 2009. Read the link provided.

 

[deadbroke]

you could take this act on the road........no really.......there's some quality material in here......even the elliotticians are cacking themselves........larry david is making new episodes based on your work: so, there's this guy who makes ending diagonals without even the half of the thing finishing.......like how would he know......

Larry David - Lemonade - YouTube

Psychology of Tops/Bottoms 101:

In real life members of the Pubic can get vociferously mad at a fella for going against the HERD and if he voices his opinion loudly, why he can get physically beaten up. So emotional is the HERD and its members in keeping an ongoing trend, ongoing.

At T2W the most emotion one will see from the HERD is what is shown by the poster in the quote - very subdued, but then, what would one expect from a heavily disinfected hospital?

 

[deadbroke]

Another sign courtesy of deadbroke that an Empire change is aborning ...... this means that from the Great Depression 2 one country (or a combo unison thereof) will emerge as the next superpower ......

this was posted by me at EliteTrader and as you will see members were reminded several times over a 2-yr period but still NOBODY stateside could come up with the answer.

I then posted it on a Financial bulletin board (to keep things on the same level for comparison sake) in China, India, Korea and a few other places. I decided not to bother with Latin America as a solution could take a few light years there.

The answer came up fast from China and India.

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Try this one - if nobody gets it, answer will be posted 1 yr from today. No hints will be given.


Starting from first principles and without the use of logarithmic tables, slide rules, computers, calculators etc., prove that

cot 7.5 degrees = sqrt 2 + sqrt 3 + sqrt 4 + sqrt 6

i.e. cotangent 7.5 degrees = square root of 2 etc.