Great Depression 2 - Short trade of a Lifetime - preps start now

[darktone]

I have been sitting on a couple ounces of gold and a couple ounces more of silver for over three years now, fighting the urge to sell and use the proceeds to fund my trading account.

Well if you havent already done so, i invite you to do some research on what money is (under our current system). Id be surprised if you urge to sell isnt replaced with an urge to buy more!

 

[China Diapers]

Oh I've done some research, maybe I just need to remind myself every now and again.

 

[China Diapers]

Anyone else follow FOFOA? That's what got me buying gold and silver.

This is my favorite post. Bit conspiracy theory but nothing wrong with a little conspiracy every now and again.

Then again there is this and this

 

[YouAreNotFree]

It is a far cry from paying in specie. The $AUS is legal tender but it's unlikely to be accepted as payment in a UK Tesco, but if a tourist had a debit card linked to an Australian bank account in $AUS dollars it would be accepted. Just like my £UK Visa debit card is accepted around the world. The gold backed debit card is no different only the currency is gold.

I can't remember the last time I paid for something that wasn't by card.

 

[darktone]

Oh I've done some research, maybe I just need to remind myself every now and again.

Yep, i know what you mean.

On another note, isnt this thread getting way of topic!? I thought it was about averaging up in stocks and oil! p

 

[YouAreNotFree]

Really!? Learn something new every day.
Think rather have the physical tho.

I'm not one of the 'if I can't hold it, it ain't mine' types. I own gold but have somebody else store it for an extremely small fee.

There is a guy on YT that had his house broken into recently, they took electronics and the like but left his $6000 stash of Silver which was piled in wide view on a desk which was lucky. Too much risk in having it at home imo, although I guess not everyone would be that careless lol.

 

[darktone]

I'm not one of the 'if I can't hold it, it ain't mine' types. I own gold but have somebody else store it for an extremely small fee.

There is a guy on YT that had his house broken into recently, they took electronics and the like but left his $6000 stash of Silver which was piled in wide view on a desk which was lucky. Too much risk in having it at home imo, although I guess not everyone would be that careless lol.

Jeeez, that just says it all! "dont worry bout that silver s**t get the playstation!!" Have you got a link for that vid?

 

[YouAreNotFree]

Jeeez, that just says it all! "dont worry bout that silver s**t get the playstation!!" Have you got a link for that vid?

Unfortunately I don't.

The guys username is Stellaconcepts, but this week he transferred all his videos to another channel (ozstellaconcepts) and as a result they are all showing one upload date and I can't remember the title of the vid.

It's a decent channel anyways. Worth a look.

 

[Joules MM1]

Psychology of Tops/Bottoms 101:

In real life members of the Pubic can get vociferously mad ...... get physically beaten up. So emotional is the HERD.......

true on both parts

Psychology of Tops/Bottoms 101:

In real life members....

i'm not sure this is real life for you......youre still trying to pick tops and bottoms......any leveraged trader who's been in your position knows exactly how beaten up you are be by being right.......

a great movie; Gangs of New York (Scorsese) shows what a real depression will be like that youre suggesting......it's a double edged thing......any paper gains you make are likely to be locked up in a bank that can't pay you and what money you do have wont buy stuff you think you can buy cos no one could afford to stock it and your social life will be worse than it is now....

if anyone is herding it's you......youre the one with the emotive logic high ground.....youre the one waiting for the almighty to asunder and prove you right.......youre the one awaiting the impossible deal of a lifetime......by the time your deal of a lifetime comes you'll be broke-az bro!

 

[Joules MM1]

'tis herding ya want is it?


Gangs of New York fight - YouTube

 

[deadbroke]

Sunday evening in beautiful Southern California ....

Bullishness has now exceeded that of the 2007 TOP

STAY SHORT with a vengeance is deadbroke's command to any lion that wanders into this graveyard.

Its a bloody gorgeous feeling when deadbroke is the lone warrior on the SHORTSIDE while the entire gangs of zillions at Elite and T2W are allegedly LONG (be it in videogames or the real thing, the odds of it being the former are upwards of 200%, hehehehehe)

 

[deadbroke]

Using the 200-pd m.a. on 30-min. as a guide - if this breaks decisively, start SHORT.

Still waiting for BAC to break the 200-pd on 30-min.

Expect fireworks as she reaches the 200-day m.a. @ 8.09 - almost there.

 

[deadbroke]

I was responding to your assertion that nobody at T2W has figured it out

"Now there is more FA that nobody at T2W or Elite has uncovered"

As for preparing for this depression, I started years ago

Always a pleasure to meet someone who is prepared.

 

[deadbroke]

This is what I wrote around 6 months ago.

new-trader, re-read what you wrote a few pages back especially the text in bold and underlined .....

To answer the question, the downtrend in real terms will continue, but in nominal terms, the sky is the limit! In S&P500 terms, I would be mildly surprised if it broke below 1250, but by the year's end I think it will be closer to 1400. There is nothing I'm seeing (yet) which makes me think this market is being liquidated so I have been adding to my portfolio on these 'dips' but I am picking my stocks wisely and in a currency that is gaining strength against the $US and £UK.

If I have read the market correctly (and there is always a chance I haven't) I figure it will be higher by the end of the year. This doesn't mean it won't go down further first, but I think there will be more stimulus if it does, you can almost Bernank on it!





(1) see 1st bold print .... that's what I call a fellow who only intellectually understands the basics but when it comes time to apply them he drops a sausage and bolts for the hills.

meaning what? ... if you profess to be so cognizant about Gold aka realmoney then you KNOW that Nominal Dow always always always always always follows the Dow priced in Gold - always always always - sometimes with a little lag but always and when in a lag the following is thereafter relentless.

(2) see 2nd underlined text. .... connected to (1) with confirmation that you dabble in basics but can't apply them.


(3) The 3rd underlined part .... Lord have mercy. Kindly go back in HISTORY to all the great crashes and review how much stimulus was applied and whether it stopped the extant trend?

 

[deadbroke]

I have an American Express Gold Card

Peter

Amex, bailed out in 2008, broke to the bone by 2015.

Heck already quite a few major banks are not carrying their TCs no more and in international travel, more and more destinations frown upon these checks and prefer not to have to deal with them.

CASH, the true KING in a DEFLATION already flogging this clown (Amex) and we're oh sooooo in the early stages of DEFLATION.

Amex checks, one step away from toilet paper, a punishment that was supposed to be held for the US Dollar, but look who's buggering who, hehehehehe.

 

[deadbroke]

BrokeBloke I admire you and may the Lord have mercy on you if this blows its top.
Have you got plenty of margin? You could be dead right but deadbroke.......seriously.

My name was chosen because I have been deadbroke many times, literally so but its becoming an occupational hazard that no matter how hard I try to remain broke, money finds me. And when she's found me, she throws open the floodgates and tries to drown me in wherewithal.

I tell you MoonRocket, I don't like it. Just can't win.

As you can clearly see, since Dec 20 I've purposely misapplied TA and am now almost broke - watch now how she comes in again and messes the coffin and puts me in a cornfield in a Rolls Royce with a Ferrari in the trunk and a blond with her head bobbling up and down - I can assure you she ain't planting corn.

I'm stuck in biblical times against my will - there were no dollars in them days, but sons-o-bit*hes, yeah.

 

[deadbroke]

For no other reason then I have seen this type of price movement as in the Dow of the last 24 days in both an uptrend and down trends many times in stocks and it is a very weak tentative but obvious uptrend, pulls in the suckers because it's non-violent and gives plenty of time to enter, as it has all these gentle pullbacks. They mostly blow off over about 3 day period and a nasty down trend ensures.
Same thing in reverse at the bottom of some downtrends.
It's no good talking to me about fundamentals and market conditions because I wouldn't have a clue.
But if poor 'ol BrokeMan recognised this pattern he absolutely would not have added to his shorts because I think in this situation, the blow off could be severe.
I can hardly wait for muppets in the media to tell us "There is a new economy, there something new afoot in the economy", bit like that turkey Greenspan.

You have in essence described the Serengetti plains in Africa as the anteleope HERD is so enthralled by the wafting fragrance of green grass that they all climb aboard and rush in to get it - when there they proclaim that this is paradise and it will never end and will last forever, that its a new era - none see that the territory is prowled by a lion pride of 40, not to mention the hyenas, leopards and cheetahs.

Another way to describe the situation ....

Everybody who would buy, has bought. When there is nobody left to buy, where will the fuel come from? Oh wait, the Dow has already been rising on fuelless fumes for months, why does he need fuel now?

Yet another way to describe it, the deadbroke way ....

the purpose of the game of markets is to bankrupt the masses - that's just the way it is, always has been and always will be for if it were ever figured out the game would disintegrate and go poof, be over, end of game.

In order for the masses to be bankrupted, major turns are the venue and at such venues, the crowds are drawn in nicely with tantalizing gifts and the good feeling continues and continues and soon they proclaim it will never end, that its a whole new era.

Then the turn comes.

Same sh*t, different turn. Just another chapter in HERD HISTORY wherein the bottlomline is "nothing is ever really learned"

Fast forward 70 years and we have another GREAT DEPRESSION and our progeny will be viewing it akin to how we view GD1 (of 1929).

Lord, why have you forsaken me and put me here with these thick cats?

 

[deadbroke]

At least there is ONE other individual who understands the significance of Dow priced in real money.

And if even this ONE individual understands the significance of Dow priced in real money ONLY on an intellectual, which means that when he is faced with peer pressure he CANNOT apply the concept - it is still better than nothing amidst a crowd that is in a daze.

So pay attention now clowns .....

HISTORY is the best evidence of how without a single exception the nominal Dow (i.e. the Dow priced in US Dollars) always went in the direction of Dow priced in Gold sooner or later. ALWAYS.

Since the clowns here only watch 1-min. to 3-min. charts and most likely view a daily chart once a year, imagine when they would view a quarterly or yearly chart - in the afterlife perhaps?

Behold the evidence - as usual I'm the only one doing the work here.

 

[deadbroke]

see prev. chart ....

(Dow/Gold in yellow)

Dow/Gold topped in 1929 and 1966. See what the Dow/$ did? Why of course it followed.

The entire 1966 to 1980 sideways move in the Dow/$ included the agony of the 1970s painful bearmarket.

Fast forward to recent times - the Dow/Gold topped in 1999. Do you cats now dig why I've been saying that the BEARMARKET actually started then, i.e. Jan 14, 2000 the top of the nominal Dow?

 

[deadbroke]

Now one could say that perhaps we won't get a crash and will have the same sort
of sideways move for 17 years that occurred in the Nominal Dow - and I would agree wholeheartedly .... except for one glaring factum .....

ALTERNATION

and if it fires here then we gots ourselves a real crash - yet to come.

So it boils down to "bet on the sideways move in Dow/$" or "bet on the real crash of Dow/$" ??

I've bet on the latter.