Great Depression 2 - Short trade of a Lifetime - preps start now

STAY SHORT - no change - DEFCON 4 continues.

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now switching from TA to FA and FA that nobody at T2W or Elitetrader could ever dream of uncovering and most likely even if they did they'd slide it under the rug and proclaim, "its a new era, one in which housing is not important" :lol

America's ATM (HOUSING), something that has allowed Americans to live as if there is no tomorrow and from paycheck to paycheck and rarely ever being more than 2 paychecks away from moving in with Mom or the Salvation Army - is injured deeply and no matter what anybody says, we also have the real unemployment rate at 22% - so combine that with America's ATM and you've got an Empire ballbreaker underway.

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We all know that home prices have dropped to below 2003 levels but only 10-20 people worldwide know the following .....................

Housing starts a sublime HDL component of total cholesterol is now at the level of 1922 even though the United States has 3 times the population.
 
As a trader he should take a lesson from the captain of the Costa Crociere cruise ship that sunk off Italy this month: Never go down with the ship.

Peter
 
So -- if not dead, at least broke? Hell of a counter move yesterday. Hell of a countermove.
 
VielGeld said:
So -- if not dead, at least broke? Hell of a counter move yesterday. Hell of a countermove.
Click to expand...
Looking at how the price has progressed for the last 24 days or so, the Dow will blow off and then plunge and a strong down turn will ensue.
It's just a matter of days, maybe a week or so.
It just depends on how much liquidity and pain the BrokeMan can take.
 
Why should it plunge? It's hardly the first time a January's been this strong. People are pilling back into the market after the huge August whiplash and risk is on. Unless there's a mass panic or something, I'd be hard pressed to believe DB'll make his money back.

Look, the Euro was pretty stable around the 1.4's through last year before Aug 8 happened. What's to say it's not heading there pronto?
 
VielGeld said:
Why should it plunge? It's hardly the first time a January's been this strong. People are pilling back into the market after the huge August whiplash and risk is on. Unless there's a mass panic or something, I'd be hard pressed to believe DB'll make his money back.

Look, the Euro was pretty stable around the 1.4's through last year before Aug 8 happened. What's to say it's not heading there pronto?
Click to expand...

Agreed. Even if the market takes a dive he's too far offside. In fact if he's actually live trading he most likely went bust a while ago. How many time can you add to a position while it keeps moving against you?

Bad timing, poor risk management, zero discipline, and all or nothing attitude = dead broke.


Peter
 
VielGeld said:
Why should it plunge?
Click to expand...
For no other reason then I have seen this type of price movement as in the Dow of the last 24 days in both an uptrend and down trends many times in stocks and it is a very weak tentative but obvious uptrend, pulls in the suckers because it's non-violent and gives plenty of time to enter, as it has all these gentle pullbacks. They mostly blow off over about 3 day period and a nasty down trend ensures.
Same thing in reverse at the bottom of some downtrends.
It's no good talking to me about fundamentals and market conditions because I wouldn't have a clue.
But if poor 'ol BrokeMan recognised this pattern he absolutely would not have added to his shorts because I think in this situation, the blow off could be severe.
I can hardly wait for muppets in the media to tell us "There is a new economy, there something new afoot in the economy", bit like that turkey Greenspan.
 
Seriously -- I read The Economist, and just in this week's issue they added a new section specifically dealing with China. Something they admit themselves they haven't done since adding the US in 1942!

So lol @ China fail. Wasn't it one of the most crowded shorts last year anyway?
 
VielGeld said:
I'd be willing to be the counterparty to this trade.
Click to expand...

Not one for macro calls, may is the key word here, if you go to China, you will see the thousands of empty residential and retail spaces, this is a cause for concern, you may recall over supply in the US not so long ago. An official government source further commented upon mass factory closures not so long ago, do you think the Chinese are transparent in these matters? your call. The 'herd' on China, as with previous sheepish runs is concerning, but, I shall not be taking the trade against China, it is not my place to predict, I deal with calculated risk, the law of averages if you like, you certainly may counterparty, but not against my capital.
 
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deadbroke
 

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Its Sunday night. For next week .... adding to SHORT AFTER open.

DEFCON 4 continues - all SHORTS still as-is.

Thread Title, GREAT DEPRESSION 2, still very much in force, no change whatsoever in stance.

Just look at that bullishness - clinging to the top, can't let go - but a look at the monthly shows the curl of the wave - Lord have mercy when it breaks - relentless comes to mind.

:)
 
deadbroke said:
- Lord have mercy when it breaks - relentless comes to mind.
Click to expand...
BrokeBloke I admire you and may the Lord have mercy on you if this blows its top.
Have you got plenty of margin? You could be dead right but deadbroke.......seriously.
 
BAC hit the 23.6% retracement resistance.

Looking to re-enter SHORT sometime in the near future, a good sign will be if the
nice rally uptrendline breaks decisively. Its attracted to the 200-day at 8.40.
 
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