Great Depression 2 - Short trade of a Lifetime - preps start now

[deadbroke]

That is politically impossible, unless you want to see the US in Civil War or something like that.

Furthermore you need to adjust those 1966 - 1982 values with inflation.

I am sorry but that scenario is not realistic. Even going below 10000 will be difficult to explain for the economical and political powers. It will truly need to be a Great Depression 2.

And don't worry about be short on it. By the time it happens the derivative market would have imploded and with it the margin you put with this call. So if it truly happens you are going to be on the negative side either way.

Very reasonable points, Sir.

Civil war? That's a walk in the park. We be talking here about a full blown REVOLUTION

Adjust numbers? Why bother? DEFLATION will do all the adjusting, like the total drying up of DEMAND, Prices in freefall, wallets tightening up to such a degree that SELLING/CLOSING (my profession) truly becomes an ARTFORM (which it already is, by the way)

Derivatives markets crashing? Do you think yours truly is going to wait around for that? No Sir, I'll have pulled out all MARKET SHORTS but my dollllllllars will be soaring in purchasing power as the MENTAL SHORT THE WORLD sets off the most defamed instrument in HISTORY, the US Dollar on an afterburner near vertical surge.

He, the US Dollar be BEAR's #1 beneficiary, the #2 having been the Yen. That's why the dead and broke one calls them the Twin Towers.

The Beatles-Revolution (Lyrics) - YouTube

A few years ago, bank officials were very irritated by me ordering Yen in large denominations (in a southeast Asian country) - you see they had to order these specially made by Toyota

Do they understand NOW? You bet they do!!!! Look at that gorgeous downtrend in ALL currencies versus YEN.

In essence, while THEY (all lowly currencies, even butlers, janitors and assholes) were hammering one Twin Tower ($), the other was hammering them all.

God, do I love it so.

 

[Pferd]

Have to agree that things look dark indeed for generations to come. Many times I see the same outcome you are describing. I very much hope you (and me) are wrong!!

Sometimes I just think I am too pesimistic, other than these outcomes will never really happen.

Sincerely hope we are wrong. Look for DJ 30000!

 

[deadbroke]

Have to agree that things look dark indeed for generations to come. Many times I see the same outcome you are describing. I very much hope you (and me) are wrong!!

Sometimes I just think I am too pesimistic, other than these outcomes will never really happen.

Sincerely hope we are wrong. Look for DJ 30000!

Indeed, Sir. I fervently hope I am dead wrong on my CALL for a Depression.

The pain and suffering would be too much and the fall from grace for such a beautiful country would be more than any sane man could bear.

But ultimately we will rise from the ashes and there will be a continued bull market because the Yearly trend is UP, UP, UP.

This is just the way markets are, they go up and then correct. This is a correction, a painful one (if it occurs) but just a correction nonetheless.

Certainly do NOT want to live to see the Chinese rule the world. I would rather be dead by then.

 

[deadbroke]

There is an interesting phenomenon that can/might save us but there is a downside - it will totally destroy Robert Prechter and Elliottwave International. They've invested too much wherewithal in the Depression scenario - clients will leave in droves if the bullmarket continues instead of crashing. This would generate massive celebrations at EliteTrader.com for you see, Prechter is hated and despised there.

How can anybody dislike a man who works so hard and takes the shot regardless right or wrong?

Prechter has not considered ONE possibility. I will outline this scenario over the weekend sometime. It is a beautiful one. Who am I to make such an assessment? NOBODY

 

[deadbroke]

The alternative scenario to the Great Depression 2 is presented here. As always all analysis and anal-ysis right or wrong is done entirely by yours truly.

Everything depends on how well a fellow can count - when counting from the Great Depression low in 1932 its easy to count 5 waves up but here's the thing; did the 5 waves end January 14, 2000 or October 2007? If the end was Jan 2000 then it is quite likely that we are in a triangle type aka a-b-c-d-e correction and that when this is completed the surge upward will be staggering and WILL be supported by and commensurate with Volume.

 

[deadbroke]

The alternative scenario to the Great Depression 2 is presented here. As always all analysis and anal-ysis right or wrong is done entirely by yours truly.

Everything depends on how well a fellow can count - when counting from the Great Depression low in 1932 its easy to count 5 waves up but here's the thing; did the 5 waves end January 14, 2000 or October 2007? If the end was Jan 2000 then it is quite likely that we are in a triangle type aka a-b-c-d-e correction and that when this is completed the surge upward will be staggering and WILL be supported by and commensurate with Volume.

If the alternate view as shown in the quote is correct, we will see improvements in the Economy right away - i.e. the cracks in unemployment, the holes in real estate, the negative vibes, the banking sector cracks, the tightening of loans, the larceny of charging discounts on retail contracts, etc., etc., etc., will dissipate and smooth out into a positive trajectory from now on or shortly into the near future.

This is the ONLY OTHER CORRECTIVE SCENARIO I KNOW OF.

 

[deadbroke]

And of course a fellow with a name like deadbroke gots to recognize for his own good that the correction was over in March 2009 and that since then a new bullmarket is underway.

I view this possibility once a week because I know Murphy is there, ready to nail me with anything overlooked.

Although I view this scenario as the least likely, it is just precisely for this reason that Murphy can slide in the backdoor and bury me.

This is just too much "thoughting" for a fellow who is already both dead and broke.

Hehehehehehe, but Murphy knows its going to be hard to beat me if I just stay focussed on the DAILY timeframe - here, on this timeframe he would have to go deeep deeeep into the dark recesses and make a pact with the EVIL ONE in order to thwart my thrust. Its hard to beat the dead one on the DAILY timeframe.

 

[deadbroke]

A key factor that I will pay particular attention to if the called SHORT materializes in spades .........

all I gotta do is look to the left on the Dow chart at the 2008 decline - if the alleged expected current crash ruptures in the Economy do not greatly exceed those of 2008 then something is amiss and what's more, if while Dow is crashing the Economy is repairing and improving that is a definite SIGNAL that the alternative scenario is the one occurring ...

and if so ...

deadbroke will be SHORT the entire duration of the drop and then ready to reverse on a dime and go LONG for the next 30 years in a sublime bullmarket. In such an eventuality the expected drop would be a Wave C, meaning that the 5 waves down would be clearly discernible on DAILY and therefore eminently time-able and therefore the next bullrun can be caught-able.

 

[deadbroke]

No change in SHORTS - everything as-is.

S&P500 and Nasdaq approaching 78.6% resistance on DAILY so still lagging the Dow who has taken out the 78.6% level a few days ago.

Note what happened to Nas the last time (Oct 27) at the 78.6% Fib.

Yeah baby, the whole world and everybody at T2W is expecting Rapprochement, but yours truly is NOT.

 

[deadbroke]

Still coping and working with whatever the Market throws at me ..... the move up has got one more little sub-wave to go and then its complete, i.e. the 5th of 5 circled is not yet in - when it is there should be a 700 point drop.

 

[N Rothschild]

you are 500 points offside already..

 

[deadbroke]

you are 500 points offside already..

But I'm the referee.

 

[Dom1]

no, you are a player and your team is losing. Your name is deadbroke and you play for team deadwrong

 

[deadbroke]

no, you are a player and your team is losing. Your name is deadbroke and you play for team deadwrong

Duh! My full name is ..... Deadbroke D. Deadwrong ..... where the middle initial "D" stands for Deadbeat.

As for you? .... Midget in a crowded elevator smells things differently.

 

[deadbroke]

Just added to Dow EXISTING SHORTS - done, done done, and happily so.

I am now powerfully SHORT.

For those who do not understand the chart labels, the extreme right numbers, (v), 5 and 5 circled are the subdivisions and whole wave numbers of the the entire move on 30-min.

As you can see, the entire move north comes to an end as soon as (v) of 5 of 5 circled ends - it is as we speak very near the end but its impossible to predict the end by the second because I don't want to go to a lower timeframe and get interiorized.

 

[deadbroke]

For newbies there is a lesson in this thread, a shocking one but in reality a very very commonsense one, but as it is the case with members of the HERD, not even 0.0000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000001% will get it. Here is how it goes ......

If it turns out I am wrong, I will be only one more casualty of the brutal reality of Markets where the vast majority lose. Nobody will learn a damn thing from this. One is supposed to die in the Markets, that's the way the game was intended.

But if I'm correct, well then that 0.00000000000000000000000000000000000000000001%
who might learn will clearly observe that chat-rooms and bulletin boards are LOSER HAVENS - the #1 loser haven in the trading world is EliteTrader and this is counter-intuitive due to the name which attracts wannabes like flies.

T2W is no different except that its policed heavily and is like a hospital.

If I'm correct 99.99% of this board is inhabited by losers and those who come here to learn and/or improve their trading will ultimately perish like those others before them and so on the game will be perpetuated into infinity and the pattern will never change.

That's just the way its.

Best of luck to all.

Me? My coffin is ready.

 

[Dom1]

I am eagerly awaiting to see if you can maintain your perfect record. The last 3 calls were perfect except in the wrong direction. Your timing was perfectly wrong. So the market should go up from here unless you have been getting it wrong by chance. If you can maintain a perfect wrong record think of the possibilities.

 

[deadbroke]

S&P500 and Nasdaq Comp. just almost arriving @ the 78.6% Fib level on DAILY

Dow arriving @ 88.3% Fib simultaneously.

He's whittling on a piece of wood. When he stops whittling I got a feeling something's gonna happen.

Forgive them Father for they know not what they do and NONE see the cliff they are charging toward.

For the sponsors and vendors here, no doubt many prey are going to be nailed mid-air as they hurtle to certain death. The vendors will not be hungry during this feast.

 

[deadbroke]

I am eagerly awaiting to see if you can maintain your perfect record. The last 3 calls were perfect except in the wrong direction. Your timing was perfectly wrong. So the market should go up from here unless you have been getting it wrong by chance. If you can maintain a perfect wrong record think of the possibilities.

There is another record that is 97% accurate and cast in stone, an easy bet in the longer-term - traders who come up against me with the milk money while the poor wife and kids are tormented by the waster who can't stop and is out of his depth and hastening their demise with 1:100 leverage - like you - end up thusly sooner or later.

Hyena Killer - YouTube

 

[deadbroke]

Just a reminder:

I am powerfully SHORT amidst the DEFCON 4 call.