Great Depression 2 - Short trade of a Lifetime - preps start now

[dc2000]

DEFCON 4 alert is on as stated earlier. We are on the same Dow Jones 30-min. chart as shown earlier. Chart is updated. Trendline remains as-is until I see the low of wave 4 - then the line will slide right under and give us yet another SHORT signal entry (on later trendline break). Wave numbering shows my thinking clearly - when wave 5 ends, that will be the SHORT initiation, sublime if it hits 78.6% as expected and stated earlier.

just come across this thread and whilst I dont go in for all the drama or elliot waves for that matter your target entry is very close to mine (12305) your goal of 20% is a little conservative but I can live with jumping off early

my guess this thread is about to get a whole lot busier and come monday you gonna be a lot more excited

 

[deadbroke]

See my previous post re: trendline sliding under wave 4 low on Dow Jones 30-min. Done. Additionally there is a parallel channel, quite common with waves 2 and 4 on any timeframe. So now we have an additional trendline under which a SHIORTY would be instantly triggered. So far so good.

Now we wait for Murphy for as sure as day follows night he will jinx me.

Same Dow Jones 30-min. chart updated below. Easy to observe that the suggested SHORT entries (trendline and parallel channel downside breakouts) turned out nicely. So far so good. Done.

For brevity and simplification I have not included the Nas and S&P500 30-min. charts - all 3 are used for overall analysis and often I include the Transports too.

Important observations:

Dow 30-min. has not not crashed below the 200 period m.a. on 30-min. frame, but the S&P500 and Nasdaq have done so and what's more, both have delivered a golden downside cross (on 30-min.). We need the Dow 30-min. to do so unequivocally otherwise the SHORT is in peril and will be shortlived.

 

[deadbroke]

Still on the same Dow 30-min. chart but with everything removed and focussing only on the SHORT ....

see the formation of the steeper trendlines?

I like that. Its promising because I am expecting a 3rd wave down and this type of wave MUST deliver the downside goods with verve and afterburner thrust.

But its not time to go to the beach YET because when looking at DAILY we do not have a confirmation that the upwave (wave 2) that started from the October 4 low is complete.

So when zooming out on Daily from the May 2011 top, we have a lower high and a lower low. Is this good enough to announce with certainty that a new downtrend has been signalled? No, because right after that we have a lower high taken out. So at best one can only conclude that we are in a TREND TRANSITION aka the bend in the trend.

Even though I hear Murphy laffing at me in the background I've got to stay focussed on basics because anything else like the esoteric elliottwaves etc., and Murphy will have me in a chokehold fast.

The STOP is right above the dark horiz. line in the chart - it is not a fixed value stop, it requires some leeway and judgement.

 

[deadbroke]

I can answer you on that but I will keep my mouth shut and let you figure out the flaw of your lower low. It took me 3 years with 10 hours daily to figure this out on my own and I am not going to post the answer to let you know the trick.

The point is that the market is going to go up.

You can call me the "biggest LOSER in the world and a LOW life" right here in this thread IF the great depression trade of yours works out the way you have predicted.

You can take your time but one thing I can promise you that we can go sideways or with serious corrections back to the summer of 2010 but would never enter a long term depression state. If any thing we lack liquidity. The current money supply in the world is not enough to accommodate the growth needs of the world.

The world is not just USA but USA is a pretty dominant part of the world's economics.

If you have a deep study of fundamentals apart from predicting movement of stars, you would need to learn that economics work on supply and demand of products and services.

People are born and then they die and then they are replaced by others. That is the way the world has reached this point.

Am anxiously waiting for your win. Good Luck.

Don't worry, Safvan, nobody is going to call you a loser or low-life -

As for "certainty" that one is right? Its a dangerous concept because the only ones who can afford to be certain are HERD members - the lions, lepopards and chetahs are anything but certain, all they do is try to play the odds.

But what I find to be increasingly true is that the alleged 95% losers have one thing in common, namely they are not prepared to put in the work, the toiling for hours and hours and months and months - they all seem to forget that the hard, labororious work is akin to a kiss

A kiss is merely shopping upstairs for downstairs merchandise

 

[deadbroke]

If you have a deep study of fundamentals apart from predicting movement of stars, you would need to learn that economics work on supply and demand of products and services.

Study Fundamental Analysis? You mean Fundamental Anal-ysis?

Let's take a closer look at this subject called FA .... the body of DATA of lying, cheating, fudging, cooking the books, massaging DATA - all done to hoodwink the already gullible investor or member of the general public. And you would call this a solid foundation upon which we as traders could/would build our financial castles?

I studied it too but the obvious struck home within the first year of study so I dropped it like yesterday's news.

Then, in walked TA - and lo and behold, all that was needed was the daily high, low, open and close (and Vol) and everything that needed to be derived could be done so from these 4 parameters. And the best part? Since 97% of technical traders fail, the owners of the World Order saw no reason to fudge these 4 parameters as they were no threat to their acquisition and dominance of the wealth stream - furthermore it would be difficult to fudge these 4 especially given that so many publish the data.

And an even more sublime freebie? The footprints of the dodgers are oh sooo clearly visible on the chart regardless how they try to hide their sneaky ways.

Keeping this in mind, dig this item that just came in ....


Real Estate: Did we rely on UNreliable data to tell us how bad it is? | Elliott Wave International

 

[TEXWOLFPACKER]

I agree with the imminent downturn you have stated. I have 1 question and 1 comment.

Question - do you feel todays upturn dec. 20 (xmas rally?) is the last projected upturn you show in your graph's. Given the nature of downturns which can be violent, shouldn't we be buying puts, etc. Now?

Comment - wouldn't long the canadian and/or australian dollar and short the euro be a better bet given the much better stability of their financial structure and soverign debt status?

 

[deadbroke]

I agree with the imminent downturn you have stated. I have 1 question and 1 comment.

Question - do you feel todays upturn dec. 20 (xmas rally?) is the last projected upturn you show in your graph's. Given the nature of downturns which can be violent, shouldn't we be buying puts, etc. Now?

Comment - wouldn't long the canadian and/or australian dollar and short the euro be a better bet given the much better stability of their financial structure and soverign debt status?

Yes, Sir, I do. But I will mention a caveat - there is no TREND yet so the bottomline in a trendless or trend transition environment is to minimize losses while trying to jump aboard an incipient, aborning trend - if I've read the trend transition WRONG the loss will show up in my bank account AND here plain and simple.

If correct however, the jumping aboard the alleged new trend will reap massive rewards very very early and thereafter will be just pure molasses.

No comment on puts/calls - not my area of expertise or confidence.

Re: your comment on currencies ..... Long USD is the way to go. The US Dollar will plug them all - the question is which one pair will give you the greatest gain? My one and only choice is short EurUsd.

I'm sticking with SHORT EurUsd for more reasons than the above - the greatest, cleanest waves in existence in the entire galactic Confederation given to us by God and verified by us thru' the largest volume in existence. The HERD has a monstrous appetite for this pair.

No difference to me if the Germans go back to the DM - I maintain data on DEM because I noo some such episode might occur - all that will happenn is that we will go back to my DEM chart which has history from the 1920s or so.

God, do I love it so!

 

[Doomberg]

Deadbroke, at what point do you plan to enter EUR/USD for short? I was planning to wait until it has broke below 13000 and stays below this level, at the moment it looks very unsure of which way it's going to go as it's bouncing about 13000

 

[deadbroke]

The STOP is right above the dark horiz. line in the chart - it is not a fixed value stop, it requires some leeway and judgement.

see Dow 30-min. chart in post #23.

STOP is still holding. But it is now removed. So there is no STOP. The wild gyrations have caused experts to complain and moan and groan about how difficult this trading environment is - heck, complaints are a waste of time, one's gotta cope, re-think and take a shot or go to the sidelines.

In this trendless environment I'm going back to BASICS - as long as Price stays below the May 2011 TOP, I'm remaining SHORT and will take my chances and LOSS if/when it occurs.

The SHORT continues unabated.

updated chart below ....

 

[deadbroke]

Add to existing SHORT as soon as TRENDLINE (on extreme right breaks).

 

[deadbroke]

Study Fundamental Analysis? You mean Fundamental Anal-ysis?

Let's take a closer look at this subject called FA .... the body of DATA of lying, cheating, fudging, cooking the books, massaging DATA - all done to hoodwink the already gullible investor or member of the general public. And you would call this a solid foundation upon which we as traders could/would build our financial castles?

I studied it too but the obvious struck home within the first year of study so I dropped it like yesterday's news.

Then, in walked TA - and lo and behold, all that was needed was the daily high, low, open and close (and Vol) and everything that needed to be derived could be done so from these 4 parameters. And the best part? Since 97% of technical traders fail, the owners of the World Order saw no reason to fudge these 4 parameters as they were no threat to their acquisition and dominance of the wealth stream - furthermore it would be difficult to fudge these 4 especially given that so many publish the data.

And an even more sublime freebie? The footprints of the dodgers are oh sooo clearly visible on the chart regardless how they try to hide their sneaky ways.

Keeping this in mind, dig this item that just came in ....


Real Estate: Did we rely on UNreliable data to tell us how bad it is? | Elliott Wave International

Its quite likely that the post above upset several people - but it was not a willy-nilly attack against Fundamental Analysis. Besides who am I to tell anybody to drop an entire subject? I'm not just deadbroke, I'm nobody.

But this might interest you - at a visit to a brokerage in a foreign country recently (my return 20-hr flight was on the day of the recent Dow rally), the marketing officer came up to me and embraced me so deeply I thought he had turned gay - but all he said was, "you saved my life and our clients' lives too"

Why, I asked? He said, "you were spot on about not bothering with FA and that the smarter way to trade is to go with the trend"

He then showed me his own personal bank balance and his open positions on trading the Futures on the 5-min chart - he had plugged in 3 moving averages, 10, 25, 75 and of course the ubiquitous 200. He just stayed with his positions till the moving average ribbon showed signs of breaking.

Hehehehe, he looked happy, stressless and had lost a lot of weight.

What more can I say?

To each his own.

best regards to all

 

[deadbroke]

Deadbroke, at what point do you plan to enter EUR/USD for short? I was planning to wait until it has broke below 13000 and stays below this level, at the moment it looks very unsure of which way it's going to go as it's bouncing about 13000

I've been SHORT EurUsd for quite a while now but this is a forum and if it was posted it would seem like bragging so I've resisted it thus far. I was hoping to start a new thread on EurUsd and NOW you, Sir make it imperative I do. Ditto for my thread on UsdJpy which was started a few days ago and is still nothing to write home about.

And just a side note, regardless how it might appear that my Euro trade is very much in the green - I have neither any pride nor dignity left in the market, I just do the best I can and whatever losses show up, as long as I'm still in the game I can always get better and better and better AND most importantly, consistent.

 

[deadbroke]

Add to existing SHORT as soon as TRENDLINE (on extreme right breaks).

chart from post #30 updated. Dow Jones is hugging my trendline like there's no tomorrow.

 

[deadbroke]

Add to existing SHORT as soon as TRENDLINE (on extreme right breaks).

SHORT is ON

 

[deadbroke]

SHORT is ON

The 2nd trendline when broken gives yet another SHORT opportunity.

 

[deadbroke]

Sticking with the Dow 30-min. chart a couple things are clear ....

Dow just took out the Dec 7 mini-top. Therefore the drop from the Dec 7 top to the 12-19 low is NOT a wave 1. Why? Because the current rise, a wave 2 cannot exceed the top and be a wave 2. So that scenario is eliminated.

The only viable scenario that remains is that we have yet another a-b-c. Although this has been suspected it is now cast in stone.

Moving onto the larger timeframe, namely Daily, my "thoughting" is unchanged, namely Wave 1 down and currently in Wave 2 up.

THEREFORE, NO CHANGE IN THREAD CALL

Merry C and prosperous NY to all at T2W

 

[deadbroke]

Super important when viewing the Dow and the possibility of a Great Depression 2 is that the Vix must verify ......

I had done this analysis on Nov 10 and not updated the chart yet ......

 

[deadbroke]

Here then is the Vix updated chart ....

 

[deadbroke]

Dow 30-min. with Semi-Log scale shows either yet another kiss of the trendline ??

OR

imminent failure aka trendline break ??

OR

dropping to form yet another albeit shallower uptrendline ??

 

[deadbroke]

ETA for start of Short is January 2012 - but the precise entry will be timed here.

The scenario depicted below will put us into January easily - in line with the thread call. It is called an Ending diagonal Triangle and depicts ENDING phenomena. The drop from such a triangle is so ferocious that previous gains are wiped out in seconds flat.

I don't know that this is what's going on except that it is a possibility.