Great Depression 2 - Short trade of a Lifetime - preps start now

[deadbroke]

Personal Savings Rate

Hahahahaha, for decades and decades the American Savings Rate kept plunging toward 0%.

Then a reversal occurred in 2001 and guess the other time - yeah baby it was in 2005 the year of the real estate top and subsequent crash.

Lord, how nicely these things are connected.

Now the Savings Rate has hammered the 200-day m.a. and if it re-crosses it northbound there will be HELL because a tightened wallet = crashing economy

And note how the 50 m.a. has crossed the 200 m.a.

All these charts are monthly from 1959

 

[deadbroke]

Continue tomorrow

STAY SHORT, clowns.

 

[Pferd]

May 1, 2012

Placed $250k into the ever-continuing SHORT earlier in the day today.

Let this be known far and wide.

250k in Italian Liras or Demo money??

 

[arn8701]

Haha that made me laugh demo money of course

 

[Prainluda]

When you think you know exactly what will happen, you will be humbled!
Good luck on the Short Bus..... errr

 

[arn8701]

I am the spreadbetguru lol

 

[deadbroke]

For historians please note this example of group-human-nature aka collective-human-nature aka The HERD .....

Dow goes down = they don't show up

Dow goes up = they come from far and wide to jeer and taunt.

Hence my derision for the the whole lot.

 

[deadbroke]

A flaw uncovered in counting waves by reviewing both Quarterly and Monthly and then dropping down to daily to apply the technique (since waves are fractals the technique should be identical) ......

see chart for how I see the TOP aborning NOW with this change ....

so what will I do?

I will take the marginal overall Dow loss when Dow drops to around or below the 200-day m.a., this being close to or in the vicinity of the Dec 20 time period when I went wrong - in wave (iv) down as shown. Then I will go to the sidelines and time the (v) top and start all over with my SHORT.

The (iv) drop might or might not occur right away but it is in the cards even if we go higher than the very recent high a few days ago.

That is the plan, NOW.

>>>>>>> I will take the marginal overall Dow loss when Dow drops to around or below the 200-day m.a., this being close to or in the vicinity of the Dec 20 time period when I went wrong - in wave (iv) down as shown. <<<<<<<



That was posted March 15. But since then there is a 250k perfect SHORT on May 1.

Therefore the new calculation is that I will be GREEN just a tad above the 38.2% retracement shown in the chart here.

 

[deadbroke]

A flaw uncovered in counting waves by reviewing both Quarterly and Monthly and then dropping down to daily to apply the technique (since waves are fractals the technique should be identical) ......

see chart for how I see the TOP aborning NOW with this change ....

so what will I do?

I will take the marginal overall Dow loss when Dow drops to around or below the 200-day m.a., this being close to or in the vicinity of the Dec 20 time period when I went wrong - in wave (iv) down as shown. Then I will go to the sidelines and time the (v) top and start all over with my SHORT.

The (iv) drop might or might not occur right away but it is in the cards even if we go higher than the very recent high a few days ago.

That is the plan, NOW.

The post of March 12 is repeated here because it shows clearly my change in thinking after brainstorming for error in methodology.

 

[deadbroke]

With post #369 in mind .....

there is still unchanged IMO a 70% probability of ONE MORE HIGHER TOP and then its over.

So the down move now is a wave C of wave 4 down.

Still remaining is a wave 5 up to complete the entire sequence.

The 30% odds are that the TOP is already in.

Wait and see.

 

[Pferd]

For historians please note this example of group-human-nature aka collective-human-nature aka The HERD .....

Dow goes down = they don't show up

Dow goes up = they come from far and wide to jeer and taunt.

Hence my derision for the the whole lot.

What's your problem? A 300/400 pts. drop in the Dow is hardly a "depression/plunge".

You said it was going to go down 70%, so you can write this message below 4000 pts. Otherwise abstain. Idiot.

 

[deadbroke]

Guys, fingers crossed, wish me luck, I'm going green soon if this keeps up, almost there, could happen today, wishful thinking, yeah, yeah, yeah.

Its so nice to see Crude Oil, after pausing at the 200-day, now apparently moving south of it.

This is one of Dollar's classic enemies and I'm glad to see him go and continue to go. Gas at the pumps should be dropping soon and a big drop it will be. That's a good thing for us poor folk.

 

[deadbroke]

250k in Italian Liras or Demo money??

Drachmas, Lire, pesetas and whatnot will be back soon enough, hehehehehe.

But Pferdy, just a simple question - if you are so sure this is a DEMO thread, then pray tell us why you are so emotionally upset? ::whistling

 

[deadbroke]

What's your problem? A 300/400 pts. drop in the Dow is hardly a "depression/plunge".

You said it was going to go down 70%, so you can write this message below 4000 pts. Otherwise abstain. Idiot.

Going green, that's why Pferdy. Naturally this will be quite upsetting to you and your kind.

 

[eighteen]

you might be onto something, if we don't get QE3 i think you'll be right, if we get qe3 you'll be crushed by bulls like a few unfortunates in pamplona

 

[deadbroke]

you might be onto something, if we don't get QE3 i think you'll be right, if we get qe3 you'll be crushed by bulls like a few unfortunates in pamplona

classic bulletin board response - come in and state the obvious that we might go north or south.

Is there anybody at T2W who has any balls at all? Even cotton balls will do - for crying out loud.

 

[Liquid validity]

classic bulletin board response - come in and state the obvious that we might go north or south.

Is there anybody at T2W who has any balls at all? Even cotton balls will do - for crying out loud.

Why do you need balls if you have sensible risk control?
The trade outcome shouldn't matter.
You shouldn't care.
You shouldn't need balls.

I came across someone once on another board who had sold his house
before the slump to cash in on the turmoil.
Last I knew, he had put the lot on a handful of AIM listed trades which
went down the sh1tter...
Sad but true.

Just wondering, but what % of your bankroll do you have on each trade?
Also, can you afford to lose?
Serious question, not having a pop.
If you have your risked sorted, all is well

 

[eighteen]

i just said the circumstances and in which direction each will go sir tool, you can claim to be so epicly right about this trade, but even a broke clock is right twice a day (going by the fact your still red, I'm guessing a broke clock has on average been right more than you).
i just said the stipulations for what will happen and where I'm going to sit, its not a bb response, its how i trade, i don't sit like a visionary on a mountain, claiming i can see the next great depression, i wait for certain things to happen then act on them, We are gonna be heading down throughout the next few weeks, until we get QE3 thats it.

i change my stance when the facts change, thats all there is to it.

how right have you been so far anyway? didn't you go short at like 12,000? i don't even think you have this trade on...

 

[deadbroke]

Just wondering, but what % of your bankroll do you have on each trade?
Also, can you afford to lose?
Serious question, not having a pop.
If you have your risked sorted, all is well

I answered this a couple days ago in the Dilemma thread .... it is my trading philosophy and I follow it 100%

If you really are looking for an Asian market to trade, I recommend the Set50 Futures with a minimum account opening of 100k USD and trade size no greater than 2000 dollars for the first 12 months of PURE POSITION TRADING. If you survive well, increase capital to 600k USD and trade size to a constant 5k USD. When you get upto speed on a consistent generation of 8-10kUSD in nett earnings per month, then you can move into a much bigger capital bracket and go with the flat 2.5% of CAP per move NETT.

Whatever Capital is used should be NO MORE than 20% of your net worth and before getting started spend one whole week on ONE THOUGHT ALONE, namely can you handle the total loss of this 20% emotionally and will it affect on not affect your current lifestyle? If the answers areYes and NO, then get started.

Good luck, I hope you succeed.

Bonus:

100% taxfree earnings, excellent broker services throughout the country, accounts are totally safe, persoanl service by brokers eclipses that of the UK and USA by a zillion miles - all rules of trading apply nevertheless, and 95% loser syndrome is oh so ever prevalent.

 

[deadbroke]

Why do you need balls if you have sensible risk control?
The trade outcome shouldn't matter.
You shouldn't care.
You shouldn't need balls.

You NEED balls in every endeavor that involves a HUNT. On this planet there are only 2 games of consequence to us gents, the HUNT for money and the HUNT for _unt.

Its that simple regardless how much you Brit bishops deny it. These 2 games are what every nationality has in common regardless color, creed or insanity.

That's just the way it is. If you ignore it or deny it you neither live nor win.

Corollary:

It is far better to go in with brass balls for the brass ring AND lose than it is to live your life like a f**kin chump and play it safe.

That's just the way the dead one plays - that's all there is to it.

And as is clearly visible in this thread, the dead one can take DEATH and dismemberment in his stride, not easily, but without complaining and wimping out. A good stash of Mezcal keeps the dead one company in such scenarios. The next day the dead one comes out punching, alive and madder than hell. Then the cycle begins anew.

Till today the dead one is the only trader he knows off or has hear of or has come across live who has not blown a single account - YET. (fingers crossed)