Great Depression 2 - Short trade of a Lifetime - preps start now

Is there anybody here with an IQ of at least 100? Please come forward and talk to deadbroke. This T2W is a very lonely place but I have a job to do - outlining in detail with blood and guts the topping sequence - even if it kills me first.

Learn this not once, read it several times and think about it over and over again ...

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read the reminiscences of renowned stock trader Gerald M. Loeb. He became vice-chairman of E.F. Hutton, and late in his life authored the classic book The Battle for Stock Market Profits (1971). Here's an excerpt.



I lived in New York City in 1929. Hotels of all kinds were then going up on every side. They were in deep financial trouble almost overnight. I paid $12,000 a year rental for my two-bedroom-and-living-room suite in the Savoy Plaza. A year later I paid $4,000 a year, and this rate prevailed for about ten years.



During the 30s, occupancy rates in many cases dropped to under 50 percent. Hotel equities were wiped out . . . Commercial rentals also dropped severely. I know of cases where landlords practically waived the rent entirely just to keep the space occupied. The hope was that when times improved the building owner would have a rent-paying tenant again.



If the rent dropped by two-thirds during the Great Depression -- at the Savoy Plaza in Manhattan, no less -- imagine the dramatic decline in rental costs elsewhere. As people lost their jobs in the early '30s, they couldn't afford the rent they used to pay.


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deadbroke is transfixed by such data which he always always reads with his chart of the Great Depression in full view.
 
Fisher was perhaps the first celebrity economist, but his reputation during his lifetime was irreparably harmed by his public statements, just prior to the Wall Street Crash of 1929, claiming that the stock market had reached "a permanently high plateau.

Irving Fisher - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

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deadbroke has neither dignity nor pride left, the only thing of value that he does have is, He has no gurus, nobody he looks up to and the experts on CNBC and elsewhere cause him to yawn yawn yawn.
 
I wasn't here at T2W at the CRASH BOTTOM of March 2009 .....

but I know T2W well enough to state this - go check it out by reading the threads from that period and see how much a no-brainer it is to call T2W Herd-Central.

As the markeet dropped and dropped like a stone, T2W was a HAVEN for bearishness, not just normal bearishness - intense, over the top bearishness, doomsday galore.

And in this atmosphere of intense bearishness what were T2W's daddies and granddaddies doing? Heck they were terrified too, petrified actually as can be seen by the following paragraph ...

Currently, Merrill—and the fund managers they survey—are selling… everything. “Right now they hate almost everything except cash.” Even hedge funds are moving to cash. (One hedge fund manager says the best position to be in right now is CASH and FETAL.) Individuals are going so far as to take money out of banks and put the cash in safes (apparently, safe sales are up 50% this month). No one wants a whiff of risk. And no one seems to think anything will change anytime soon.



Against this backdrop deadbroke was screaming BUY BUY BUY for a massive rally to at least 38.2% - 61.8% recovery rally. (hindsight note: the rally went further, actually to 78.6%)

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when would T2W get into the rally after the bottom was in?

hahahahahahaha, when they usually do, well after the market has recovered, and after the “smart money” has already made 30% or more by being invested when the rebound began. Since you don’t know when that will be, you’ve got to be prepared ahead of time, even if that means withstanding some huge price swings.


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And since deadbroke is always improving or looking for improvement, TOPs/Bottoms calling and trading will improve by doubling every 3-4 years. Count on it, clowns. :):):):)
 
Thursday, March 8, 2012 ...

Dow Jones 30-min. rally just shy of 200-pd m.a. and 61.8% retracement.

ADD to SHORT NOW
 
I'm afraid your not the lone rider you think you are Deadbroke. "One man, struggling for credibility against all the odds"... Maybe you've read a few Austrian Economics articles and caught a couple of Peter Schiff youtube videos and went on a mission...?
This stuff is old news, yes equities have had their day, the next 10 years wont do much.

If you want to make some money, concentrate on the secular bull market we are currently in with Commodities.

Prepare for the secular bear market coming in Bonds.

Stop boring everyone with your small Stock market Short,

Let me know when you're in the green Bigdog, then we'll talk. Until then you remain hindrance.

Last response to this thread.
 
Wow, (dead broke), you're putting all this effort in to forecast a CERTAINTY, yes the market is CYCLICAL, do you not have anything better to do than claim eventual glory from a NATURAL occurence?

I think the point of members here is that you have been calling this for a very long time with no specifics, I could very easily set up a similar thread for bonds, we know they're going to drop at some point, but need I really post a given every single day for months?

One basic tenet of the human being is to crave recognition for oneself, for others its Facebook posts, the latest Mulberry bag, the latest Ipad, etc., what you are stating may be correct, but we not know when, how far, and for how long, so please, take off your mystic herd hat and be as individual as you claim to be.
 
Wow, (dead broke), you're putting all this effort in to forecast a CERTAINTY, yes the market is CYCLICAL, do you not have anything better to do than claim eventual glory from a NATURAL occurence?

Indeed, in fact here's my prediction: ignore the evenings getting lighter and the weather slowly warmer. Ignore the daffodils and tulips sprouting from the verges. All is woe! I can predict WITH UTTER CERTAINTY that cold weather will return and it will SNOW!

How many points offside must the OP be now?
 
Wow, (dead broke), you're putting all this effort in to forecast a CERTAINTY, yes the market is CYCLICAL, do you not have anything better to do than claim eventual glory from a NATURAL occurence?

I think the point of members here is that you have been calling this for a very long time with no specifics, I could very easily set up a similar thread for bonds, we know they're going to drop at some point, but need I really post a given every single day for months?

One basic tenet of the human being is to crave recognition for oneself, for others its Facebook posts, the latest Mulberry bag, the latest Ipad, etc., what you are stating may be correct, but we not know when, how far, and for how long, so please, take off your mystic herd hat and be as individual as you claim to be.



Another live one. :LOL::LOL:

IQ < 80 so off to Ignore.
 
A flaw uncovered in counting waves by reviewing both Quarterly and Monthly and then dropping down to daily to apply the technique (since waves are fractals the technique should be identical) ......

see chart for how I see the TOP aborning NOW with this change ....

so what will I do?

I will take the marginal overall Dow loss when Dow drops to around or below the 200-day m.a., this being close to or in the vicinity of the Dec 20 time period when I went wrong - in wave (iv) down as shown. Then I will go to the sidelines and time the (v) top and start all over with my SHORT.

The (iv) drop might or might not occur right away but it is in the cards even if we go higher than the very recent high a few days ago.

That is the plan, NOW.
 

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EDIT

No need for the unedited message after reading the previous post, the points made over and over about this Deadbroke fellow have been substantiated.

He says 'a flaw'. :D Fantastic. :D

'MARGINAL overall DOW loss'. :D Brilliant.

'The (iv) drop might or might not occur right away' Well, well, well.

This is what we've been telling you along Deadbroke. :)


However with 'that is the plan NOW' I suspect we are in for more acrobatics.
 
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A flaw uncovered in counting waves by reviewing both Quarterly and Monthly and then dropping down to daily to apply the technique (since waves are fractals the technique should be identical) ......

see chart for how I see the TOP aborning NOW with this change ....

so what will I do?

I will take the marginal overall Dow loss when Dow drops to around or below the 200-day m.a., this being close to or in the vicinity of the Dec 20 time period when I went wrong - in wave (iv) down as shown. Then I will go to the sidelines and time the (v) top and start all over with my SHORT.

The (iv) drop might or might not occur right away but it is in the cards even if we go higher than the very recent high a few days ago.

That is the plan, NOW.

:clap: :LOL: severe burn!! :LOL: mysticism aint what it used to be!! Let's hope we don't get QE3!! LMAO
 
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Estimating completion of the TOP ......

For the current wave v ....

waves 1 and 2 together took 8 weeks.

wave 3 is ongoing, nearest magic number is 21 weeks but this is too short for wave 4 so a more realistic expectation is 34 weeks.

Therefore waves 3 and 4 completion probs in July.

Then the last wave up, namely wave 5 gets underway and ought to be a multiple of wave 1 which took 8 weeks.

Will revisit this later down the road for more time based eval of the TOP.
 
Vacation till April 5 so might not be any posts, so here is the summary of stance ...

NO change in overall Great Depression CALL. All Dow SHORTs remain as-is.

upcoming mini-crash is wave 4 down - if crash is indeed just a mini-crash then will look to close all SHORTs at around the 200-day m.a. which will give me a marginal loss. If the min-crash goes south further I might even be lucky to breakeven or go green. Then we start the timing again for the last wave up, namely wave v.

If the min-crash is instead the real thing, we will know this by the nature of the drops then I won't change a thing.

That is the entire PLAN.
 
You are a clown!

Very convenient time to dissapear. I guess we are never going to hear back from you on this upcoming collapse, am I wrong?
 
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