Gold

I love it when NRothschild gets into an argument here! I can just see the veins bulging from his forehead as he types, kinda like this: :mad:
Relentless too! Gotta love it.

Peter
 
Thats a superb chart.

"you cannot say my theory is completely wrong"

Thats the whole problem at the moment which will lose you money trading, it doesn't really have a great deal to do with being 'right' or 'wrong', its got to do with humbly getting out when you are wrong, and clinging on tooth and nail when you're right, in my experience. Economic arguments are a small part of the equation, and most economists are completely clueless, being more interested in finding ways of defining mathematical models to explain the market rather than looking at the reality. Witness the vast majority of economists who still cling to the efficient market theory.

Even George Soros, Jim Rogers or Warren Buffett don't decide one day, for example, the American economy is poked - buy 10000 contracts of Gold tomorrow morning at the open. Those decisions are the ones that make money, not constructing an intellectually orgasmic economic theory. One of the very few economists worth reading once said;

"Markets can remain irrational a lot longer than you and I can remain solvent."
 
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/whats-ben-gonna-do

excellent article here on all of helicopter ben's options in the fight against the BONE CRUSHING deflation. ya'know, coz hyperinfaltion is coming innit and buy gold bitchez

Would also recomend reading http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deflation just so you understand the basics of what we are talking about m'kay?

Most notably

"Deflation in Japan

Deflation started in the early 1990s. The Bank of Japan and the government have tried to eliminate it by reducing interest rates (part of their 'quantitative easing' policy), but this was unsuccessful for over a decade. In July 2006, the zero-rate policy was ended.

Systemic reasons for deflation in Japan can be said to include:

* Fallen asset prices. There was a rather large price bubble in both equities and real estate in Japan in the 1980s (peaking in late 1989). When assets decrease in value, the money supply shrinks, which is deflationary.

* Insolvent companies: Banks lent to companies and individuals that invested in real estate. When real estate values dropped, these loans could not be paid. The banks could try to collect on the collateral (land), but this wouldn't pay off the loan. Banks have delayed that decision, hoping asset prices would improve. These delays were allowed by national banking regulators. Some banks make even more loans to these companies that are used to service the debt they already have. This continuing process is known as maintaining an "unrealized loss", and until the assets are completely revalued and/or sold off (and the loss realized), it will continue to be a deflationary force in the economy. Improving bankruptcy law, land transfer law, and tax law have been suggested (by The Economist) as methods to speed this process and thus end the deflation.

* Insolvent banks: Banks with a larger percentage of their loans which are "non-performing", that is to say, they are not receiving payments on them, but have not yet written them off, cannot lend more money; they must increase their cash reserves to cover the bad loans.

* Fear of insolvent banks: Japanese people are afraid that banks will collapse so they prefer to buy (United States or Japanese) Treasury bonds instead of saving their money in a bank account. This likewise means the money is not available for lending and therefore economic growth. This means that the savings rate depresses consumption, but does not appear in the economy in an efficient form to spur new investment. People also save by owning real estate, further slowing growth, since it inflates land prices.

* Imported deflation: Japan imports Chinese and other countries' inexpensive consumable goods, raw materials (due to lower wages and fast growth in those countries). Thus, prices of imported products are decreasing. Domestic producers must match these prices in order to remain competitive. This decreases prices for many things in the economy, and thus is deflationary.

* Japanese style deflation: Deflation has been persistent in Japan for two decades due to very low unemployment rate in Japan for the very low GDP growth rate. If GDP growth rate decreases, unemployment rate should be increased since average annual household income can be maintained in that way. But Japan did not do that. Instead Japan maintained a low unemployment rate compared with other developed countries. Therefore, an annual Japanese household income has been decreasing for two decades. The solution of the Japanese persistent deflation is to give much more flexibility in the labor market.

In November 2009 Japan has returned to deflation, according to the Wall Street Journal. Bloomberg L.P. reports that consumer prices fell in October 2009 by a near record 2.2%.[11]"


hmm that doesnt sound familiar does it? nope.

What people like Dunecat don't realise is, hyperinfaltion is not the biggest thing to be worrying about.

People think of weimar hyperinflation and uther such BS which isn't even possible in the US. If you don'nt know why, i would brush up on what happens when you hold debt in another nations currency and your own currency starts to depreciate.
 
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I just popped back to take a look to see if things had changed on this thread, and they haven't.

On one side, Dunecat with his many theories about the economy.

On the other side, everyone else. People who trade and try to extract money from the market.

This thread is going nowhere. Dunecat still fails to realise that no-one actually cares about his theories. And the reason? This is not an economic debating website. Dunecat is eloquent and could probably equally plausibly argue why gold should go DOWN.. but, it's irrelevant in any case. Having an opinion on economics and gold & making money from the markets = two different things.

Everyone else, who trades, keeps trying to tell Dunecat they are not interested in his theories and that he should try formulating a trading plan and then put some money to work.

What is slightly sad is that Dunecat is getting some good advice on this thread, and could get more, about TRADING, but the only thing he can do is expound his many, varied and eclectic theories about the economy, in which no-one has any interest.
 
"I don't believe there will be hyperinflation at all. I think there is a possibilty that inflation will overshoot central bank targets slightly, but no way will you see 'hyperinflation'. One thing you need to remember is that 75% of GDP is from consumer spending, which is subdued as unemployment is so high. You also have to consider that the british/american public are likely to have learnt a lesson from this crisis, and that lesson is the control of spending. To save money and to spend more cautiously. I think this will be a lesson that will stay with consumers for at least the next 3-5yrs. Hence, keeping inflation under control. It will be a similar time frame before wage inflation starts creaping up.
Then you come to the point of quantitative easing. Central banks have pumped money into the banking sector, however, there has not been a significant increasing in lending to the public. Even more so, people are reluctant to borrow money from the bank. So the money stays in the banks capital reserves. Not actually reaching consumers, but when it does, it will slowly seap into the system, keeping inflation under control."

Ok, so now that I have a clearer head, the argument against hyperinflation is simply that even if the government is running the presses at warp speed, people will not want to borrow and spend it, which would hold inflation down?

So the only thing preventing inflation would be in the way that the money is distributed?

But what about the foreign US dollars? Won't people and countries be sending that all back to america to buy commodities or other currency or goods in America the second that it even looks like America could hit a severe downturn?

If you guys can just help me out here, I just want to have a good impartial look at both the sides to the argument.
 
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Dunecat if you are serious, read "new monetarism" and " sovereign discredit" by david roche.
 
Dunecat if you are serious, read "new monetarism" and " sovereign discredit" by david roche.

Yes but the problem is that I already have several books on the go that I need to return to the library, and I'm limited to what I can buy with limited pocket money with whats in the bookstores/library or up to download on the internet :LOL: , also, I do have exams/homework that I need to do every night.

And I do have to admit that I always don't have the same concentration levels as an adult either :rolleyes: ... guess deep down I'm still a teenager lol

If you can just quickly place the counter arguments to my last post I would be quite happy.
 
no because thats the problem you are trying to get a fundamental economic understanding from the cliffe notes, you need to go deeper..

you think i dismiss all your arguments on some 200 word piece i read on the internet, or a 5min youtube clip from my favorite pundit?
 
I think shiff did a great job of summing up quickly why he thought it was going to implode and why gold was going to skyrocket. I barely got a bit the way into his book before I was convinced. Which is probably also in part of my lack of knowledge about the other side, but his points were very clear and very easy to understand.

If you really think this is all completely wrong, I'd really appreciate it if you could quickly tell me why. I don't want a full depth analysis lol.
 
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