Gold

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meanreversion said:
Why would anyone masquerade as a 15 year old on a TRADING website? That is absurd in itself. I think we have to take his word for it.
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Well then I think it's fair to assume he is basically telling us what his Dad is telling him. For instance, he has cited the Treasury Secretary from 2005, which - pardon me for the inference - makes him about 10 at the time. I doubt he's some sort of prodigy because he doesn't have any trading experience yet (citing Dunecat here), ergo he is spouting a second hand argument.

meanreversion said:
I was fairly sesquipedalian when I was 15.. it's not beyond the realms of probability that he is 15. The thinking is very woolly though, and a touch too opinionated. But hey! If you're not sure of yourself when 15, when will you be?
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Sh!t, I'm nearly double his age and I don't even know if I'm *copy->paste* sesquipedalian now, let alone at 15.
 
"
I'm probably not familiar with a lot of economic case studies you guys ask me about either. Barely 12 weeks vs many years or decades for you guys. None of my friends, teachers or parents know much about the fine mechanics of economics, so where better to criticize these theories than a forum like this? "

yet you come on disagreeing with these people of many years or decades like you know better, because you read it somewhere?

Also a point you are overlooking, yes we will probably go into a great depression. Why is that the end though? its not. America will rise out of it as it always has. World didnt end last great depression, why would it this time? it wont.
 
"i cant ever see the dollar being replaced aslong as the us military draws breath "
Hur hur hur...
 
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Dunecat said:
Rothschild, this made me lol. It was lulzy. Like, a short sudden burst of HAHAHURHUR that woke up my cat and caused it to scratch me.

"i cant ever see the dollar being replaced aslong as the us military draws breath "

Hur hur hur hur hur. Coz that makes perfect logical sense right? "Use our dollar or we will invade you with weapons we will be buying off you with our now worthless currency :mad:"
This is like some lulzy patriotism where you lot think that America is still on top. "We're the US of A and the world revolves around US and we have the guns and military to say it still revolves around US."

Seriously, that thread is like 61 pages of people offering up legitimate justification of why they think inflation is going to happen. It's good to see that you do admit a depression is coming though. I'm halfway there lolololololol.

Quote by Poborski:
"The warning sign for inflation is deflation caused by economic contraction in countries with economies that run trade and fiscal deficits for years. The USA has a particular problem at the moment because the housing and retail sectors are imploding. With option arm mortgages resetting over the next two years it is likely that foreclosures will increase. Unemployment is still rising despite the stimulus plan and average working hours are down for those still employed. The bank profits are mostly down to sale of assets and changed accounting procedures. Basically the banking sector is insolvent. A lot of US govt debt is short term and finding purchasers for an ever increasing amount is going to be difficult. Investors will demand a greater return for purchasing this debt. As interests rates rise more homeowners and businesses will be unable to service their loans. More stimulus will be pumped into the economy on printed paper. The owners of US treasuries will begin to lose confidence and dump them causing a run on the dollar. US citizens realizing that their dollars are becoming worthless will start spending them, creating a hyper-inflationary environment."

This is my point RIGHT HERE. I have basic economic fundamentals behind me here. No exports = no incoming money. Lax lending + tons of money from 01 = bad debt. Bad debt = banks insolvent. Now Bernake thinks printing their way out will do the trick; hey, the last stimulus didn't work, lets try another and try to reinflate the last bubble. Rothschild, the US govt is ****ing retarded. I haven't seen many fundamentals behind you in the first 15 pages of that thread. I also can't believe you think Bernake ISNT a moron. Quite simply, you got blown out of the water on that thread man.

Christ, GDP doesn't even reflect true inflation, due to the way it has been designed. Instead of housing prices there's rent prices. OK :D.

Rothschild, I don't know where you work, or how old you are, or whether you are as fat as the guy in your avatar. I do know that America is sinking. I do know that Asia will soon be the economic powerhouse, if it is not already. I do know that you can only truly get rich when you export massive amounts. America is coming to an end; this gross consumption will halt and it will all come tumbling down. Although you haven't admitted inflation will happen, you have admitted a depression, which means economic power will switch from the US to China. That's it, its over.

The US govt will inevitably print to pay for new stimulus to seem as though they are doing something. There is no doubt that they will, because the US govt has been serving itself since ages ago. I will give you this though, there is still some degree of uncertainty between whether deflation or inflation is going to happen. My research points towards inflation. And your beloved american might will crumble with the rest of the farce.

And excuse the contempt in my argument; demeaning pricks like you really rile me up. If this thread is full of pompous faggots of your nature I'm afraid I'm off. Can't do anything else than masturbate when you're 15? I'm not surprised, the way you talk is reminiscent of an angry kid anyway.

"i cant ever see the dollar being replaced aslong as the us military draws breath "
Hur hur hur... Good **** man, good ****.
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Moron. Your views are so wrong i cant even be arsed to correct them.
 
I actually cant get my head around why you would find the comments regarding the US military so amusing? Are you that dumb?

You seem to be brain washed that exporting is the only way to economic growth. You cant even understand the basics yet your trying to get your mind round more advanced theory?
 
Hurry up and open your brokerage account duncat, so you can transfer all your funds into mine while trying to implement your god awful, standard issue, Internet drivel theory.
 
Dunecat seeing as you think i got blown out of the water on that hyperinflation thread. Your hero poborsky and his cronies argue for pages and pages about the decline of the dollar and actively shorting it. I argued for dollar strength and still do.

Here is a chart so you can see who has won this argument a year on. I have highlighted the area when the thread first started for you.
 

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Dunecat said:
fuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuck me.

The hell do you think? What, point a gun at somebody's head and tell them to use your currency? You think America will survive a war against the rest of the world? You think for one second, that America is actually buying weapons with money legitimately earned? You think, lol, that America could force China, Russia, Euro, Aus, etc etc to use their currency when they're abusing it's status like this?

PS. Momentum trading -> fancy guesswork. Lets try to predict a completely irrational force! Lets buy shares of something that has no real income because everyone else is doing it!*cough* dotcom buble. No, I don't like the idea of betting with my money. I'd rather actually take a while to analyze where they're getting their income, how good their return on equity is and whether or not they can service and payback their debt(etcetc). Don't predict, prepare. (thank-you, Warren Buffet.)

PSS. I think I've asked you some three times about what your financial success is. You've blocked my question three times too. I honestly don't think that you're anything more than an armchair expert anyway. From this argument, I've taken things on board. I've strengthened my side, and I've even conceded that there it is possible deflation might happen. You, on the other hard, have continued to insult me, my determination and truthfulness and you are yet to take anything on board from the very legitimate opposite side of the argument. If this argument was not legitimate we would not have Soros, buffet, schiff, etc etc behind it.
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What you looking for, a bank statement? picture of my house? my cars? Tell me..

Who said anything about momentum trading? you don't even know how i trade.

You are just yet another know it all who hasnt ever even take a trade, let alone made any money. So untill then your opinion is, worthless. And you call me an arm chair expert? :LOL:
 
I seriously wouldn't get in the way of asking rothschild his financial status. He's posted several statements here before, and judging by his facebook - is doing pretty well.

Next time I suggest you research your target before making assumptions, much like your theories :clap::clap::clap::clap::clap:.

PS. Roths, he's made his dad buy $33k shares in BP it looks like?
 
Dunecat said:
Rothschild, I think you should know that short term gain means jack ****. I think these might be called bear market rallies? Or am I getting mixed up here? Is that not from the new announcement of stimulus anyway?

I was taught this when I was 12; never take a graph or statistical representation of information as being a main source of evidence. Stats can and have been manipulated throughout the years to serve individual purposes. Think that can be a main source of evidence? What is that, a 4 month gain? A gain in the region of months? Cunning tale, chap.
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Stimulus results in dollar weakness and a bear market rally in equities equals dollar weakness. but nice try. chap.
 
Dunecat said:
fuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuck me.

The hell do you think? What, point a gun at somebody's head and tell them to use your currency? You think America will survive a war against the rest of the world? You think for one second, that America is actually buying weapons with money legitimately earned? You think, lol, that America could force China, Russia, Euro, Aus, etc etc to use their currency when they're abusing it's status like this?

Yes

PS. Momentum trading -> fancy guesswork. Lets try to predict a completely irrational force! Lets buy shares of something that has no real income because everyone else is doing it!*cough* dotcom buble. No, I don't like the idea of betting with my money. I'd rather actually take a while to analyze where they're getting their income, how good their return on equity is and whether or not they can service and payback their debt(etcetc). Don't predict, prepare. (thank-you, Warren Buffet.)

Warren Buffet and the rest of them had a decent amount of capital and invested throughout a time of unprecidented manufacturing, population growth, disposable income growth, and just about every other type of growth. They now use insider information to generate brilliant returns.

All of the ratios etc that you are talking about are doctored to the high heavens and you should learn more about the the type of institutions involved in equity purchases and what they expect from their investments.

Momentum trading - once the shares are issed by a company they are exchanged on the secondary market - your local stock exchange. The share price will not rise unless demand on the secondary market exceeds supply and vice versa. Thats what matters. Lets say a company projects its EPS will increase 100% next year but doesn't release the information. You think the share price will sky-rocket if nobody knows?

PSS. I think I've asked you some three times about what your financial success is. You've blocked my question three times too. I honestly don't think that you're anything more than an armchair expert anyway. From this argument, I've taken things on board. I've strengthened my side, and I've even conceded that there it is possible deflation might happen. You, on the other hard, have continued to insult me, my determination and truthfulness and you are yet to take anything on board from the very legitimate opposite side of the argument. If this argument was not legitimate we would not have Soros, buffet, schiff, etc etc behind it.
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You should really change your attitude. It's becoming disruptive to the thread and you are coming across as very arrogant. I know because I was just like you about 18 months ago and I was a lot older.

Also you'd do well not take what some fund managers say for gospel. They tend to talk up their own funds.
 
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You are just yet another know it all who hasnt ever even take a trade, let alone made any money. So untill then your opinion is, worthless.

Do you know why i don't even acknowledge your argument? Because you don't even understand the Monterrey system, how money is created, how debt works, the credit markets, how the fed works. Yet you think you know the outcome? Jog on.
 
Come back to this thread when you have done a few years study on the financial system and how credit markets etc work and i will glady debate it with you. Untill then i am not going to waste my energy on a 15yr old who has done 12 weeks of study and thinks he has the answers to the global financial system.

Hyper inflation is not possible. If hyperinflation happens in the next few years i will donate all my wealth to charity. Fact.

Gold is in bubble territory

The dollar will rise to decade highs

deflation will take hold, markets will fall.

The End

And the difference between me and you? I will put my money where my mouth is and make a living out of it. So i will repeat myself again, i dont care what you, or any other wanabe trader on this forum thinks about inflation, or gold.
 
Dunecat said:
fuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuck me.

The hell do you think? What, point a gun at somebody's head and tell them to use your currency? You think America will survive a war against the rest of the world? You think for one second, that America is actually buying weapons with money legitimately earned? You think, lol, that America could force China, Russia, Euro, Aus, etc etc to use their currency when they're abusing it's status like this?

PS. Momentum trading -> fancy guesswork. Lets try to predict a completely irrational force! Lets buy shares of something that has no real income because everyone else is doing it!*cough* dotcom buble. No, I don't like the idea of betting with my money. I'd rather actually take a while to analyze where they're getting their income, how good their return on equity is and whether or not they can service and payback their debt(etcetc). Don't predict, prepare. (thank-you, Warren Buffet.)

PSS. I think I've asked you some three times about what your financial success is. You've blocked my question three times too. I honestly don't think that you're anything more than an armchair expert anyway. From this argument, I've taken things on board. I've strengthened my side, and I've even conceded that there it is possible deflation might happen. You, on the other hard, have continued to insult me, my determination and truthfulness and you are yet to take anything on board from the very legitimate opposite side of the argument. If this argument was not legitimate we would not have Soros, buffet, schiff, etc etc behind it.
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rite although you wont listen, i'll try and add something in a constructive way...it is a serious serious mistake to say one type of trading is better than another because sometimes stuff works and sometimes stuff doesn't. The market changes.

To add an example you may appriecate, Ben Graham said in the 60s that value investing was dead, why? Because everyone knew about, everyone knew about net-net stocks, everyone had taken his class.

Another point is that although momentum trading appears irrational it is in fact the ultimate strategy because it tells you what people are doing. There is no point buying a value stock if other people aren't buying it, it isn't going to go up other wise. It is definetely true that people have made money using momentum and nothing else, but again it doesn't always work.

Now it is ironic that you pick you Soros because he known for getting involved in the bubble stages because there is mooney on the table, you just have to stay open-minded. I would also say that saying these people believe these arguement is misleading, they may believe but they don't know when it is going to happen. It is pretty obvious the $ isn't going to be the reserve currency forever but the dollar index may rally to 120 before it does.

And to the later posts, another recession is possible but it is distinctly unlikely the way things are going. There is also a clear way for America out of this situation. It is unbelievable cos these kind of fiscal problems happen reguarly and countries get out of them and it tends to happen a lot sooner than people think. Having a budget deficit doesn't mean doom and it actually shows how much faith there is globablly in America. The situation won't change soon because as stated already countries like China and Japan are still massively long the dollar.

And finally, as NR has said, the bond market is smarter than the gold market...fact.

http://www.scribd.com/doc/22695029/UBS-Dollar-Decline-Research - this may be of interest as well, I don't nesscessairly support the arguement but there is interesting points.
 
@Dunecat - you may be intellectually mature for your age but tone of your discourse lends itself to a psychological makeup which will lose you money (need to be right, wedded to a view, inflexibility in analysis of facts).

The best advice I think most of us could give to you is open a trading account, have a go and find out just on or off the mark you are. Trying to labour a point with any of us is largely futile.

Then, just then, you may be taken seriously.
 
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