Gold

[N Rothschild]

Dunecat, all your views and arguments can be found on any internet sites, there is nothing deep in your understanding or views. Your understanding are part of the retail croud. the retail croud gets slaughtered in markets.

if you maintain your current views and use the same sources for your information you will fail as a trader that i can promise you.

you have a chance to get away from all this crap right at the beginning before you become brain washed

 

[N Rothschild]

I think shiff did a great job of summing up quickly why he thought it was going to implode and why gold was going to skyrocket. I barely got a bit the way into his book before I was convinced. Which is probably also in part of my lack of knowledge about the other side, but his points were very clear and very easy to understand.

If you really think this is all completely wrong, I'd really appreciate it if you could quickly tell me why. I don't want a full depth analysis lol.

if you want "quick" your in the wrong game.

 

[glyder]

Yes but the problem is that I already have several books on the go that I need to return to the library, and I'm limited to what I can buy with limited pocket money with whats in the bookstores/library or up to download on the internet , also, I do have exams/homework that I need to do every night.

And I do have to admit that I always don't have the same concentration levels as an adult either ... guess deep down I'm still a teenager lol

If you can just quickly place the counter arguments to my last post I would be quite happy.

Dunecat, you need to understand the arguments for yourself, read these books, ask your dad to buy them for you. They are not long, as long as you keep basic supply and demand concepts in the back of your mind you 'll grasp the ideas.

 

[Hilarymannah]

Dunecat,....Take Rothschild's advice,..he writes wise words !

 

[Dunecat]

Yeah ok. Gold is probably a bubble until further notice.

Oh but such a juicy bubble : D ...

 

[meanreversion]

Gold is just one of many markets. Most people who have been long have done quite nicely, but only some of them are "gold bugs". For the most part it's momentum trading ... people who've either bought on a breakout or a dip on the uptrend ... they just approach this the same as any other market. This same style of trading would have worked well in being short EUR/USD.

 

[Vilas]

Gold is just one of many markets. Most people who have been long have done quite nicely, but only some of them are "gold bugs". For the most part it's momentum trading ... people who've either bought on a breakout or a dip on the uptrend ... they just approach this the same as any other market. This same style of trading would have worked well in being short EUR/USD.

The level Gold has reached is due to declining Currencies and fear of inflation and Retail investors are not aware of alternate investements such as Palladium. Everyone is familiar with Gold and it has long been a Retail investor's best friend in inflationary times. But it is reaching dangerous levels from which it could decline without giving "advance notice". Best strategy would be to close your positions at the end of day and be ready the next day to wage another Investment Battle !

 

[meanreversion]

I've been long it on and off since 1000. The most recent trade was buying around 1110 (spot equivalent) back in April. My stop is around 1217, if it gets done then I'll be looking for another signal to get in. I apply the same system to XAU as other markets.. fortunately this one has developed a nice trend. The more markets I can trade (capital permitting) the more likely to find a trend somewhere.

I do recognise that people get very emotional about gold and like to trot out expressions like "gold is going up because the US printing press is running at full speed" and "geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are rising" etc etc. But does it really matter?

 

[Dunecat]

Yeah, but I don't think now that the levels it is increasing at reflect the actual rates of the inflation that it is meant to be hedging against. It looks more like a bubble curve now that I've looked into it too.

So lets say hypothetically that it is a bubble, and it does burst; would you guys buy any gold after it had sunk to the bottom? There could be some opportunity in buying it at that point because I'm thinking america is going to go through an even rougher patch as it sorts itself out, which would probably happen after the bubble.

 

[meanreversion]

So lets say hypothetically that it is a bubble, and it does burst; would you guys buy any gold after it had sunk to the bottom? There could be some opportunity in buying it at that point because I'm thinking america is going to go through an even rougher patch as it sorts itself out, which would probably happen after the bubble.

You need to think about what you're saying.

Your question is - should we buy gold at the bottom?

The answer is going to be "yes", in fact you should buy EVERY market at the bottom.

BUT - how do you know it's the bottom? You don't. Is BP at the bottom? Who knows.

You can NEVER buy the bottom/sell the top (anyone who tells you they do this is lying). But perhaps what you could do (if gold starts to fall dramatically) is wait until such time as the market has recovered off the lows and looks to be trending higher once more - then you can buy it (this is momentum or swing or breakout trading, call it what you want). You need to see confirmation of the move before trying to get on the trend.

Buying something which is collapsing is like catching a dagger. You might get it right once in a while, but that might not make up for the other times when you get completely hosed. Can you see why you need a trading plan?

 

[montmorencyt2w]

I don't consider myself to be a gold bug these days.

But for what it's worth (probably not much) I am not actually convinced that gold is yet in a classic bubble, as it happens. I'm still not saying it's a good buy, and even some gold bulls have said it's due a correction. I think it is worth trading shortish term technically, or fundamentally if there is some specific reason (like the IMF announcing it was going to sell gold a little while back), but I don't think I would either buy and hold, or sell and stay sold, for any length of time, at this point.

 

[N Rothschild]

You need to think about what you're saying.

Your question is - should we buy gold at the bottom?

The answer is going to be "yes", in fact you should buy EVERY market at the bottom.

BUT - how do you know it's the bottom? You don't. Is BP at the bottom? Who knows.

You can NEVER buy the bottom/sell the top (anyone who tells you they do this is lying). But perhaps what you could do (if gold starts to fall dramatically) is wait until such time as the market has recovered off the lows and looks to be trending higher once more - then you can buy it (this is momentum or swing or breakout trading, call it what you want). You need to see confirmation of the move before trying to get on the trend.

Buying something which is collapsing is like catching a dagger. You might get it right once in a while, but that might not make up for the other times when you get completely hosed. Can you see why you need a trading plan?

totally disagree most of my trading is done picking tops and bottoms for major trend changes

 

[Hilarymannah]

I concur with Rothschild,...

 

[glyder]

I agree that major tops and bottoms of markets can be picked, though its not for everyone and not needed to trade.
I've known several long term traders over the years with an uncanny abiity to do this on major trends.
This ability to pick is one half of the equation, backing it with money and for the duration is maybe the tougher part.
Its not my style of trading but if I had to pick one long term move right now it woud be to sell the Dow, I don't see a similar set up on gold yet.

 

[Dunecat]

I'm gathering PDFs of as many of the books I can find that I need to read. Which will save me a lot of time/money.

Getting through "trade your way to financial freedom", which is very interesting, will help me formulate my trading plan. CAn't say I can find those ones on gold though, rothschild. Are there any others which have your seal of approval?

 

[N Rothschild]

I agree that major tops and bottoms of markets can be picked, though its not for everyone and not needed to trade.
I've known several long term traders over the years with an uncanny abiity to do this on major trends.
This ability to pick is one half of the equation, backing it with money and for the duration is maybe the tougher part.
Its not my style of trading but if I had to pick one long term move right now it woud be to sell the Dow, I don't see a similar set up on gold yet.

you agree? what do you know, you have never even made a tarde before...jees..

 

[meanreversion]

Has trying to pick a top in gold cost money this year NR? Do you wait for confirmation of the start of the move lower before trying to sell (e.g. RSI moving below 70 or some such), or do you actively try to pick tops in a rising market?

 

[N Rothschild]

i have my own method which was used in my market direction thread, i dont use technicals. I havnt been activley shorting gold this year

 

[glyder]

you agree? what do you know, you have never even made a tarde before...jees..

NR - it seems you're uptight either way -if people disagree with you and uptighter if
they agree with you. No win for you.
I told you what I know in that post.go read it again.
Believe me the trades I saw were by bigger cheeses than you is ever gonna ever be.
Tardes a plenty. Whatever they is(?!).

 

[glyder]

I'm gathering PDFs of as many of the books I can find that I need to read. Which will save me a lot of time/money.

Getting through "trade your way to financial freedom", which is very interesting, will help me formulate my trading plan. CAn't say I can find those ones on gold though, rothschild. Are there any others which have your seal of approval?

Dunecat those books are pretty obscure, prob not out in the free PDF world.
Also they not about gold but about economics. Supply n demand of money.