EURGBP: Extends Recovery, Targets The 0.7949 Level.
EURGBP- With the cross seen following through higher on the back of its last week corrective gains, the immediate risk is for it to strengthen further towards the 0.7949 level. We expect this level to reverse roles as support thus turning the cross back down. However, if this fails to happen, further bullish offensive could build up towards the 0.8039/93 levels where a back off lower may occur but if broken, further upside pressure should target the 0.8154 level. Its daily RSI is bullish and pointing higher supporting this view. On the downside, the alternative scenario will be for EURGBP to return to the 0.7787/66 levels. A cut through here will turn focus to the 0.7700 level. Further down, support lies at the 0.7691 level, its Oct 2008 low and then the 0.7594 level. All in all, the cross remains biased to the downside in the medium term but faces corrective recovery risks nearer term
AUDUSD: Bull Pressure Remains Intact, Targets Major Resistance
AUDUSD: While AUDUSD may be hesitating off higher prices, it continues to hold on to its short term uptrend. It was seen challenging the 1.0577 level as at the time of this analysis. A clearance of here will allow for more upside towards the 1.0600 level, its psycho level and then the 1.0650 level. Its daily RSI is bullish and pointing higher supporting this view. On the downside, the alternative scenario will be for the pair to return to the 1.0442 level where a reversal of roles as support is likely to occur. But if this fails to happen, the pair will weaken further towards the 1.0380 level where a breach will aim at the 1.0290 and then the 1.0177 level. All in all, the pair continues to retain its short term bullish tone.
EURGBP: Backs Off Higher Prices But Still Biased To The Upside.
EURGBP- Price hesitation has set in after the cross failed to extend its corrective recovery on Tuesday. However, the cross continues to hold on to its recovery tone set from the 0.7761 level. As long as it can hold above the 0.7871 level, it is likely to return above the 0.7961 level. A breach will resume its correction towards its Jun 26’2012 low at 0.7982 level as the next upside target where a reversal of roles could occur and turn the cross lower. However, if this fails, expect further upside offensive towards the 0.8039/93 levels. We expect a back off lower at these levels but if broken, further upside pressure should build up towards the 0.8154 level. On the downside, the risk to its current upside will be a return to the 0.7787 level, its July 30’2012 low. A cut through here will turn focus to the 0.7700 level. Further down, support lies at the 0.7691 level, its Oct 2008 low. Below here could see the cross pushing further lower towards the 0.7594 level. All in all, the cross remains biased to the upside on further recovery risk.
USDJPY: We continue to hold our consolidation plus range view on the pair as it looks for directional moves. Additionally, as long as USDJPY continues to trade below the 78.66 level, the risk is for it to retarget the 77.92 level, its July 23’2012 low. A breach of here will open the door for more weakness towards the 77.66 level where a violation will pave the way for a push further lower towards the 77.00 level. Its daily RSI is bearish and pointing lower suggesting further weakness. Alternatively, the pair will have to break and hold above the 78.66 level followed by the 79.78 level, its declining trendline to halt downside threats. Further out, resistance lies at the 80.59 level followed by the 81.77 level and then the 82.53 level. All in all, USDJPY continues to face downside risk in the medium term.
EURUSD: Backs Off Higher Prices, Eyes The 1.2132 Level.
EURUSD: With a negative close registered the past week, the pair remains vulnerable to the downside in the new week. This will leave EUR eyeing the 1.2132 level where a violation will aim at the 1.2040 level. Below here if it materializes should target the 1.2000 level, its big psycho level. We expect EUR to face price hesitation ahead of or at this level. In such a case, it could see it back off higher but if that level is breached, the pair should weaken further towards the 1.1950 level. Conversely, a return above the 1.2407 level will have to occur to reverse its present weakness and trigger further upside. Further out, resistance lies at the 1.2482 level, its .618 Fib Ret. All in all, EUR continues to hold on to its broader medium term weakness.
EURUSD: While EUR remains below the 1.2442 level, risk of a return to the 1.2239 level cannot be ruled out. A clearance of here will set the stage for a move lower towards the 1.2132/17 levels. Further down, support stands at the 1.2040 level where a breach will pave the way for more declines towards the 1.2000 level, its big psycho level. We expect EUR to face price hesitation ahead of or at this level. This could see it back off higher but if that level is breached, the pair should weaken further towards the 1.1950 level. The alternative scenario will be for the pair to return above the 1.2442 level. This will trigger its corrective recovery towards the 1.2482 level, its .618 Fib Ret and then the 1.2500 level. All in all, EUR continues to maintain its broader medium term downside risks though facing recovery threats.
USDCAD: Having continued to weaken, further declines are likely towards he 0.9826 level. On further price extension, the 0.9800 level will be aimed at with a violation of there allowing for a move lower towards the 0.9700 level, its psycho level and possibly towards the 0.9600 level. Its daily RSI is bearish and pointing lower suggesting further weakness. Conversely, USDCAD will have to break and hold above the 1.0000/83 levels to halt is present weakness and then resume its correction. This if seen should push the pair further higher towards the 1.0105 level and then the 1.0165 level. All in all, the pair remains biased to the downside in the short term
GBPUSD: Faces Bear Threats, Vulnerable Below The 1.5774/78 Levels.
GBPUSD: With GBP closing slightly lower the past week and remaining vulnerable to the downside, risk is building up for more declines. As long as the 1.5774/78 levels cap, the broader risk remains lower. This could see the pair targeting the 1.5489/57 levels where a violation will pave the way for a move lower towards the 1.5391 level. A clearance of here will turn focus to its Jun 2012 low at the 1.5266 level. Further down, support lies at its July 18’2010 low at 1.5122. Conversely, the pair will have to break and hold above the 1.5774/78 levels to end its bear threats and trigger price extension. In such a case, the 1.5857 level will come in as the next upside where a violation will expose the 1.6000 level. On the whole, GBP faces downside risks despite recovery attempts.
GBPUSD: The pair is now seen on the offensive with eyes on the 1.5774/78 levels. GBP will have to decisively break and hold above that zone to prevent a return to the 1.5457 level from occurring. Above the 1.5774/78 levels will pave the way for a run at the 1.5857 level where a violation will expose the 1.6000 level. Its daily RSI is bullish and pointing higher supporting this view. On the other hand, below the 1.5457 level will open the door for further declines towards the 1.5391 level. A clearance of here will turn focus to its Jun 2012 low at the 1.5266 level. Further down, support lies at its July 18’2010 low at 1.5122. On the whole, GBP must break and hold above its key resistance to trigger further upside.
EURJPY- Though hesitating, as long as EURJPY holds above the 97.80 level, the risk is for it to strengthen further towards the 99.07 level, its July 06’2012 high. This is coming on the back of its bullish corrective recovery tone. A cut through here could bring further upside towards the 100.00 level and possibly higher. Its daily RSI is bullish and pointing higher supporting this view. Alternatively, the risk will be for the cross to return to the 97.80 level where a reversal of roles as support is likely to occur. However, if this level fails, further declines should build up towards the 95.72/94.91 levels. A clearance of here will set the stage for a move lower towards the 94.10 level where a breach will resume its broader weakness towards the 93.00 level. All in all, EURJPY remains biased to the upside on corrective recovery.
AUDUSD: Having reversed its three-day gains following a sell off on Thursday and a follow-through today, the risk of further declines continues to build up. The immediate support lies at the 1.0380 level with a breach aiming at the 1.0290 level followed by the 1.0200 level. Its daily RSI is bearish and pointing lower supporting this view. Conversely, the pair will have to return above the 1.0611 level to annul its present bearishness. This could open further upside risk towards the 1.0650 level. Further out, resistance resides at the 1.0700 level.. All in all, the pair continues to face its corrective downside tone.
EURUSD: Returns Above Key Resistance, Bull Pressure Set To Extend (The Week Ahead)
EURUSD: With EUR following through higher on the back of its previous week gains to break and hold above the 1.2442 level, it faces the risk of further bullish offensive into the new week. In such a case, the 1.2588 level comes in as the initial resistance where a violation will call for a move higher towards the 1.2692 level. A breach will pave the way for a run at the 1.2748 level. Its weekly RSI is bullish and pointing higher suggesting further strength. The alternative scenario will be for the pair to return to the 1.2442 level. A reversal of roles as support is likely to occur here but if that fails the pair could weaken further towards the 1.2239 level. A clearance of here will set the stage for a move further lower towards the 1.2132/17 levels. Further down, support stands at the 1.2040 level. All in all, EUR continues to face recovery threats having followed through higher the past week.
EURGBP: Maintains Its Recovery Tone, Risk Builds On Key Resistance
EURGBP- Although the cross closed higher for a second week in a row the past week, it will have to break and hold above the 0.7961 level to resume its corrective recovery triggered from the 0.7761 level. This if seen will open the door for a run at the 0.8039/93 levels. We expect a back off lower at these levels but if broken, further upside pressure should build up towards the 0.8154 level. Its daily RSI is bullish and pointing higher supporting this view. On the downside, a failure to return above the 0.7961 level could see the cross face downside pressure towards the 0.7761 level. Below here will trigger the resumption of its broader medium term weakness towards the 0.7700 level. Further down, support lies at the 0.7691 level, its Oct 2008 low and next the 0.7594 level. All in all, the cross remains biased to the downside in the medium term though recovering.
EURUSD: The 1.2442 Level Set To Reverse Roles As Support.
EURUSD: Though vulnerable to the downside, as long as it holds above the 1.2442 level, it faces the risk of a return to the 1.2588 level. A breach will aim at the 1.2692 level followed by the 1.2748 level. The alternative scenario will be for the pair to return to the 1.2442 level. A reversal of roles as support is likely here but if that fails to occur the pair could weaken further towards the 1.2239 level. A clearance of here will set the stage for a move lower towards the 1.2132/17 levels. Further down, support stands at the 1.2040 level. All in all, EUR continues to face upside recovery threat though vulnerable.
USDCAD: Focus Turn Lower With Trend Resumption Looming.
USDCAD: Focus Turn Lower With Trend Resumption Looming.
USDCAD: With USDCAD continuing its weakness and testing the 0.9841 level to close lower on Tuesday, the threat is for an eventual break and hold below the 0.9841 level, its Aug’2012 low. If this occurs, the pair will resume its medium term weakness towards the 0.9800 level. A violation of there will allow for a move lower towards the 0.9700 level, its psycho level and possibly towards the 0.9600 level. Conversely, the only way to prevent these bear threat is for it to decisively break and hold above the 0.9945 level. This if seen could propel it further towards the 1.0000/83 levels. A breach will aim at the 1.0105 level and then the 1.0165 level. All in all, the pair remains biased to the downside in the medium term.
GBPUSD: Maintains Firmly Above The 1.5778 Level The 1.5909 Level.
GBPUSD: With GBP maintaining firmly above the 1.5778 level, a return to the 1.5909 level is our likely bias. A turn above here will pave the way for a move further higher towards the 1.6000 level. Price hesitation may occur here and turn the pair back lower but if it breaks, expect further upside to shape up towards the 1.6112 level. The alternative scenario will for GBP to reverse its upside gains and return to the 1.5753 level. Below here could push it further lower towards the 1.5635 level. Further down, support comes in at the 1.5457/89 levels where a breach will open the door for further declines towards the 1.5391 level. On the whole, GBP has halted its corrective weakness suggesting further upside gains.
USDCHF – Weakens, Extends Bearish Momentum (The Week Ahead)
USDCHF: With USDCHF holding below the 0.9655 level, Aug 06’2012 low and closing lower the past week, risk of further decline is developing. The pair continues to hold on to its downside pressure initiated from the 0.9970 level leaving the risk of further downside pressure towards the 0.9480 level. A violation of here could force more declines towards the 0.9421 level where a breach will aim at the 0.9366 level. Its weekly RSI is bearish and pointing lower supporting this view. The alternative scenario will be for the pair to initially return above the 0.9655 level which should open up further upside towards the 0.9808 level. Further out, resistance resides at the 0.9970 level where a break will resume its broader medium term uptrend towards the 1.0000 level, its 200 weekly ema. On the whole, the pair remains biased to the downside on correction.
EURJPY: Maintains Recovery Threats With Upside Bias
EURJPY- Though consolidating following its recent upside offensive, EURJPY remains biased to the upside on furthercorrection. As long as the cross continues to hold above the 97.80 level, it looks to resume its upside recovery towards the 99.16 level. A breach will allow for more strength towards the 100.00 level, its psycho level. However, it will have to take out its 101.59 level to signal that a bottom is now in place. Its weekly RSI is bullish and pointing higher supporting this view. The alternative scenario will be for EURJPY to return to the 97.80 level where a break will call for a run at the 95.72 level followed by the 94.91 level. A cut through there will allow for more declines towards the 93.00 level. All in all, EURJPY remains biased to the upside on further correction.
USDCAD: Weakens, Closes In On Key Support (Daily Technical Analysis)
USDCAD: As continued downside weakness remains in force, USDCAD looks to recapture its key support located at the 0.9841 level, its Aug’2012 low. A decisive clearance of here will resume its medium term weakness towards the 0.9800 level. A violation of there will allow for a move lower towards the 0.9700 level, its psycho level and possibly towards the 0.9600 level. Its daily RSI is bearish and pointing lower supporting this view. Conversely, the only way to prevent this bear threat is for the pair to decisively break and hold above the 0.9945 level. This if seen could propel it further towards the 1.0000/83 levels. A breach will aim at the 1.0105 level and then the 1.0165 level. All in all, the pair remains biased to the downside in the medium term.
