GBPUSD: Having reversed its intra day losses to close higher on Wednesday, further gains should build up. In such a case the 1.6000 level will be targeted. Price hesitation may occur here and turn the pair back lower but if it breaks, expect further upside to shape up towards the 1.6112 level. Its daily RSI is bullish and pointing higher supporting this view. The alternative scenario will be for GBP to reverse its upside gains and return to the 1.5753 level. Below here could push it further lower towards the 1.5635 level. Further down, support comes in at the 1.5457/89 levels where a breach will open the door for further declines towards the 1.5391 level. On the whole, GBP looks to extend further upside gains.
EURJPY: Takes Out The 99.16 Level, Price Extension Seen.
EURJPY- With EURJPY cutting through its key resistance at the 99.16 level and testing its psycho level at the 100.00 level, further price extension is likely in the days ahead. As long as the cross continues to hold above the 99.16 level, the above view remains valid. Above here will allow for more strength towards the 101.59 level and possibly the 102.50 level. Its daily RSI is bullish and pointing higher supporting this view. The alternative scenario will be for EURJPY to return to the 99.16 level where a reversal of roles as support is likely to occur. Further down, support comes in at the 97.80 level where a break will call for a run at the 95.72 level followed by the 94.91 level. All in all, EURJPY remains biased to the upside on further correction.
USDCHF – Extends Bearish Momentum, Key Support Targeted.
USDCHF: The pair continues to hold on to its downside pressure initiated from the 0.9970 level declining sharply for the past week and setting the stage for additional weakness. This development now leaves the pair targeting the 0.9421 level, its July 2012 low. A violation of here could force more declines towards the 0.9366 level where a breach will aim at the 0.9300 level. Its weekly RSI is bearish and pointing lower supporting this view. The alternative scenario will be for the pair to initially return above the 0.9655 level. This if seen should open up further upside towards the 0.9808 level. Further out, resistance resides at the 0.9970 level where a break will resume its broader medium term uptrend now on hold. On the whole, the pair remains biased to the downside in the short term.
GBPJPY: Short Term Outlook Still Remains To The Upside.
GBPJPY – While GBPJPY may be hesitating or even vulnerable, it remains baised to upside short term. However, it will have to return above the 125.81 level, representing its Jun 21’2012 high and the 126.16 level to trigger its short term uptrend. As long as it holds above its rising trendline (red), this view remains intact. A decisive breach of here will call for more upside towards the 127.08 level with a loss of here creating scope for further upside risk towards the 128.84 level. Further out, resistance resides at 129.50 level. Its daily RSI is bullish and pointing higher supporting this view. The alternative scenario will be a pullback towards the 124.01 level where a reversal of roles as support is expected. However, if this fails, further declines could build up towards the 122.38 level where a violation will set the stage for a move further lower towards the 121.77 level. But for the cross to resume its broader medium term weakness, it will have to break below the 118.78 level. On the whole, the cross remains biased to the upside on correction nearer term.
GBPUSD: With bullish offensive seen above the 1.6000/50 levels, the risk is for GBP to recapture the1.6112 level. Price hesitation may occur here and then turn the pair back lower but if it breaks, expect further upside to shape up towards the 1.6180 level, its May 10’2012 high. Further out, resistance resides at 1.6300 level, its April’2012 high. Its daily RSI is bullish and pointing higher supporting this view. On the other hand, support comes in at the 1.6000/1.5909 levels. A reversal of roles as support is likely to occur here and turn the pair higher. However, if this fails, the 1.5774/78 level will be aimed at. Below here if seen could see the pair return to the 1.5457 level and then the 1.5391 level. On the whole, GBP faces an immediate upside risk into the new week.
EURUSD: We look for EUR to extend its gains though slightly hesitating. As long as it continues to trade and hold above the 1.2692/1.2748 levels, further upside gain is likely. It now faces the risk of moving higher towards the 1.2950 level. A breather may occur and turn the pair back lower at this level but if this fails to occur, expect the pair to strengthen further towards the 1.3000 level. Its daily RSI is bullish and pointing higher supporting this view. The alternative scenario will be for the pair to return to the 1.2692/1.2748 levels where a reversal of roles could occur. Further down, support lies at the 1.2442 level where a violation will expose the 1.2239 level. A clearance of here will set the stage for a move lower towards the 1.2132/17 levels. All in all, EUR continues to face upside recovery threats.
EURGBP- With EURGBP holding firmly above the 0.8000/09 levels, further upside offensive is expected. As long as it holds above the 0.7953/28 levels, further upside gains are likely. We expect a back off lower at the 0.8000/09 levels but if broken, further upside pressure should build up towards the 0.8154 level. Its daily RSI is bullish and pointing higher supporting this view. On the downside, a continued bear threats could see the cross face downside pressure towards the 0.7953/28 level. Below here if seen will target the 0.7761 level with a breach aiming at the 0.7700 level. Further down, support lies at the 0.7691 level, its Oct 2008 low. All in all, the cross remains biased to the upside on correction.
USDCHF – Sees Further Bearish Momentum, Eyes The 0.9193 Level.
USDCHF: The pair continues to weaken turning lower below the 0.9421 level, its July 2012 low to close the week at 0.9271 level. This leaves the pair aiming at the 0.9193 level, its May 07’2012 low on further declines where a violation could force more declines towards the 0.9100 level. A breach of here will aim at its major psycho level at the 0.9000 level. Its weekly RSI is bearish and pointing lower supporting this view. The alternative scenario will be for the pair to initially return above the 0.9421 level and then the 0.9655 level. This if seen should open up further upside towards the 0.9808 level. Further out, resistance resides at the 0.9970 level. On the whole, the pair remains biased to the downside in the short term.
GBPUSD: Pressure Builds On The 1.6280/1.6300 Levels And Beyond.
GBPUSD: Having continued to rally, closing strongly higher the past, further upside offensive is likely in the days ahead. This will leave the pair targeting the 1.6350 level with a cut through here allowing for more gains towards the 1.6400 level. Its weekly RSI is bullish and pointing higher supporting this view. On the other hand, support comes in at the 1.6030/00 levels where a reversal of roles is likely to occur and turn the pair higher. However, if this fails, expect further declines towards the 1.5909 level. Below here will aim at the 1.5774/78 level with break of here if seen turning attention to the 1.5457 level. On the whole, GBP faces further upside risk.
Dollar Index: Recovering But Vulnerable Short Term
US Dollar Index: While the Index may be attempting to recover higher, it continues to hold on to its broader short term downside bias triggered from the 84.10 level. As long as it trades and holds below the 80.96 level, a retarget of the 78.53 level is likely to occur. A violation of this level will call for a run at its psycho level at 76.00 level. Alternatively, on continued corrective recovery, the Index will target the 79.82 level where a breach will call for a move lower towards the 80.49 level. Further out, resistance resides at the 81.18 level with a break below here allowing for more upside towards the 82.72 level. All in all, the Index continues to look vulnerable short term though facing a recovery threat
USDJPY: Though facing corrective recovery threats triggered from the 77.13 level, it continues to hold on to its medium term downtrend. As long as it continues to hold below its falling trendline (red), this view remains valid. This leaves the risk of a return to the 77.13/00 levels on the cards. Below here will call for more declines towards the 76.49 level and then the 76.00 level. Its daily RSI is bearish and pointing lower supporting this view. On the upside, the pair must break and hold above the 79.64 level and its declining trendline to put on hold its medium term downtrend. This could push the pair further lower towards the 80.59 level where a breach will turn attention to the 81.77 level. All in all, USDJPY remains biased to the downside medium term despite its current recovery attempts.
Re: Dollar Index: Recovering But Vulnerable Short Term
Interesting post, I'm thinking the other way, I think that medium to longer-term, the bias is down once the effects of QE kick in but short-term, it could strengthen. Personally, I'm planning to sell dollar strength but that's purely a macro view so your technical indicators may indicate otherwise plus my time horizon is likely a little different!
GBPUSD: The pair has triggered a correction weakening further in early trading today and targeting further declines. This may push the pair towards the 1.6141 level with a break and hold below there aiming at the 1.6050 level. We expect a halt in declines to occur here and turn GBP higher again. On the upside, resistance resides at the 1.6272 level where a breach will pave the way for a move higher towards the 1.6300 level. Further out, resistance stands at the 1.6350 level with a cut through here allowing for more gains towards the 1.6400 level. On the whole, GBP faces further upside risk medium term though correcting lower.
USDCAD: The pair may have closed higher on Thursday but left a lot to be desired after it printed a shooting star candle pattern. This candle pattern is both negative and upside reversal signal suggesting the pair may have ended its correction. This will leave USDCAD targeting the 0.9692 level where a violation will call for more declines towards the 0.9631/00 levels. A break will aim at the 0.9500 level and possibly the 0.9450 level. Alternatively, the pair will have to return above 0.9815 level to resume its correction. Further resistance lies at the 0.9945 level. This if seen could propel it further towards the 1.0000/83 levels. All in all, the pair remains biased to the downside in the medium term though facing recovery risks.
EURUSD: With EUR backing off higher level prices to close lower the past week, it remains susceptible. But as long as its present bear threats remain above the 1.2748 level, its broader short term uptrend remains intact. This could eventually see the pair return above the 1.3171 level where a violation will call for a run at the 1.3282 level. Above here will call for a move towards its weekly ema at 1.3415 level. Conversely, support lies at the 1.2800 level. A breather may occur and turn the pair back up but if this fails to occur, expect the pair to decline further towards the 1.2692/1.2748 levels where a reversal of roles could occur. Further down, support lies at the 1.2442 level. All in all, EUR continues to hold on to its short term upside bias though facing bear threats.
GBPUSD: The pair may be hesitating following its recent strength but continues to hold on to its broader upside. This development now leaves GBP targeting the 1.6272 level where a breach will pave the way for a move higher towards the 1.6300 level. Further out, resistance stands at the 1.6350 level with a cut through here allowing for more gains towards the 1.6400 level. On the downside, support comes in at 1.6162 level where a violation will trigger further declines towards the 1.6100 level. A break and hold below here will aim at the 1.6050 level. We expect a halt in declines to occur here and turn GBP higher again. On the whole, GBP faces further upside risk medium term.
EURUSD: A second consecutive week of declines saw the EUR even more vulnerable to the downside with eyes on the 1.2753 level. A clearance of here will open the door for a run at the 1.2692/1.2748 levels where a reversal of roles could occur. This could see the pair back off lower prices and target the upside. However, if this fails to happen Further declines will aim at the 1.2442 level. Its weekly RSI has turned lower supporting this view. On the other hand, the pair will have to return above the 1.3171 level to annul its present weakness and turn upside risk towards the 1.3282 level. Above here will call for a move higher towards its weekly ema at 1.3415 level. All in all, EUR continues to face bear threats.
USDJPY: Halts Weakness But Still Biased To The Downside Medium Term.
USDJPY: The pair continues to face downside vulnerability as risk of a return to the 77.13/00 levels is still a concern. Despite its present recovery attempts, this view remains valid as long as USDJPY holds below its declining trendline (red). Below 77.13/00 levels will call for more declines towards the 76.49 level and then the 76.00 level. On the upside, the pair must break and hold above the 79.64 level to halt its broader medium term bearishness. This could push the pair further higher towards the 80.59 level where a breach will turn attention to the 81.77 level. All in all, USDJPY remains biased to the downside in the medium term.
AUDUSD: Declines Further, Targets The 1.0200 Level.
AUDUSD: With continued downside weakness underway, AUDUSD looks to decline further with eyes on the 1.0200 level. This is coming on the back of a break of the 1.0321/1.0302 levels. Below the 1.0200 level will expose the 1.0165 level and possibly the 1.0100 level. Conversely, in order for the pair to annul its present bear threats, it will have to break and hold above the 1.0611/23 level. This if seen will push it further higher towards the 1.0700 level and possibly the 1.0853 level. All in all, the pair continues to face its downside risks.
