FXTechstrategy Team: Forex Analysis

[FXTechstrategy Team]

USDCHF – Triggers Medium Term Uptrend Resumption.

USDCHF: With the pair reversing its previous week losses and triggering a resumption of its medium term uptrend, the risk is for USDCHF to target further upside. Further out, on continued strength the pair will aim at the 0.9850 level and possibly extending towards the 0.9932 level, its 200 weekly ema. The next upside is its psycho level standing at 1.0000 level. Its weekly RSI is bullish and pointing higher supporting this view. The alternative scenario will be for the pair to return below the 0.9768 level just violated and then continue its downside pressure towards the 0.9421 level. Below here will aim at the 0.9366 level and then the 0.9331 level. On the whole, the pair remains biased to the upside in the medium term having reversed its previous week gains.

 

[FXTechstrategy Team]

EURUSD: Bears Dominate, Threatening Further Downside.

EURUSD: With a strong sell off seeing EUR weakening and reversing its previous week gains at the end of the week, further declines should follow. This will set the stage for further weakness towards the 1.2149 level, its Jun 27'2010 low. EUR may hesitate on testing this level and could turn higher but if that level breaks, further declines could shape up towards the 1.2100 level, its psycho level. A decisive clearance of here will open up further downside risk towards the 1.2000 level. Its weekly RSI is bearish and pointing lower supporting. On the upside, the pair will have to break above the 1.2748 level to end its present weakness and turn attention to the 1.2824 level with a cut through here targeting the 1.2902 level. All in all, EUR remains biased to the downside on further weakness.

 

[Amar431]

Re: USDCHF – Triggers Medium Term Uptrend Resumption.

Nice post...

 

[Amar431]

Re: EURGBP: Sell Off, Pushes Below The 0.7949 Level.

Great post...

 

[FXTechstrategy Team]

USDCHF – Bullish Momentum Remains Intact.

USDCHF: With the pair continuing to hold on to its upside bias, we look for more strength to occur. Further out, on continued strength the pair will aim at the 0.9850 level and possibly extending towards the 0.9932 level, its 200 weekly ema. The next upside target resides at its psycho level standing at 1.0000 level. Its daily RSI is bullish and pointing higher supporting this view. The alternative scenario will be for the pair to return below the 0.9768 level just violated and then continue its downside pressure towards the 0.9421 level. Below here will aim at the 0.9366 level and then the 0.9331 level. On the whole, the pair remains biased to the upside in the medium term having reversed its previous week gains.

 

[FXTechstrategy Team]

EURUSD: Biased To THe Downside Below The 1.2407/1.2286 Levels

EURUSD: While the pair continues to trade and hold below the 1.2286 level and the 1.2407 level, the risk of further declines is expected. This will expose the 1.2200 level where a breach will set the stage for a run at the 1.2149 level, Jun 27’2010 low. EUR may turn higher on testing this level but if that level breaks, further declines could shape up towards the 1.2100 level. Its daily RSI is bearish and pointing lower supporting view. On the upside, the pair must break back above the 1.2748 level to annul its current weakness. This if seen will pave the way for a move further higher towards the 1.2824 level. Further out, a cut through here will target the 1.2902 level. All in all, EUR remains biased to the downside.

 

[FXTechstrategy Team]

GBPUSD: Follows Through Lower, Targets The 1.5401 Level.

GBPUSD: With the pair reversing its intra-day gains to close lower on Wednesday and following through lower during Thursday trading session, the risk is for GBP to weaken further. In such a case, the 1.5401 level, its Jun 08'2012 low will be targeted where a break will aim at its Jun 2012 low at the 1.5266 level. Below here if it occurs will call for a move further lower towards its July 18’2010 low located at the 1.5122 level. Its daily RSI is bearish and pointing lower suggesting further declines. On the upside, the pair will have to return above the 1.5576/1.5774 levels to reverse its present downside threats. This will open the door for a move further higher towards the 1.5857 level where a violation will expose the 1.6000 level. Price hesitation could occur here and then turn the pair back down. On the whole, GBP now faces further bear threats having followed through lower on the back of its Wednesday losses.

 

[FXTechstrategy Team]

EURUSD: Bears Continue To Dominate Price Action.

EURUSD: We maintain our broader downside bias on EUR as it remains weak and looks to extend further declines. Having continued to hold below the 1.2286 level and the 1.2407 level, the 1.2200 level is now exposed. A breach will set the stage for a run at the 1.2149 level, its Jun 27’2010 low. EUR may turn higher on testing this level but if that level breaks, further declines could shape up towards the 1.2100 level. Its daily RSI is bearish and pointing lower supporting view. On the upside, the pair must break back above the 1.2286/1.2407 levels to annul its current weakness. This if seen will pave the way for a move further higher towards the 1.2748 level followed by the 1.2824 level. Further out, a cut through here will target the 1.2902 level. All in all, EUR remains biased to the downside.

 

[FXTechstrategy Team]

EURGBP: Pressured To The Downside, Targets Key Support

EURGBP- The cross extended its downside pressure the past week selling off strongly and paving the way for further declines to occur. In such a case, the 0.7806 level, its Oct 26’2008 low will come in as the next downside objective with a violation of there allowing for a run at the 0.7691 level, its Oct 2008 low. Below here could see EURGBP pushing further lower towards the 0.7594 level. Its weekly RSI is bearish and pointing lower supporting this view. On the upside, the cross will have to return above the 0.8154 level and its declining trendline to annul its present downside and then resume its short term uptrend. We expect a back off lower at these levels but if broken, further upside pressure should build up towards the 0.8250 level and then the 0.8423 level. Further out, the 0.8423 level comes in as the next upside target. All in all, the cross remains biased to the downside in the medium term.

 

[FXTechstrategy Team]

Weekly Technical Strategist: EURUSD

EURUSD: Maintains Broader Downside Though Hesitating.

EURUSD: Outlook on EUR continues to point lower as it is weak and vulnerable to the downside. The risk is for the pair to decline further towards the 1.2149 level, its Jun 27’2010 low. EUR may turn higher on testing this level but if that level breaks, further declines could shape up towards the 1.2100 level and then the 1.2000 level, its key psycho level. Its weekly RSI is bearish and pointing lower supporting this view. On the upside, the pair will have to break above the 1.2748 level to end its present weakness and turn attention to the 1.2824 level with a cut through here targeting the 1.2902 level. All in all, EUR remains biased to the downside on further weakness.

 

[FXTechstrategy Team]

USDJPY: Faces Bearish Momentum, Risk Points To The 78.78/61 Levels.

USDJPY: The pair is biased to the downside on further correction as it continues to decline following its past week’s losses. In such a case, its key support zone at the 78.78 level will be targeted initially where a violation will call for a run at the 78.00 level. On further declines below that level, the 77.66 level will be aimed at where a breach will pave the way for a move further lower towards the 77.00 level. Its daily RSI is bearish and pointing lower suggesting further weakness. Alternatively, the pair will have to break and hold above the 79.78 level, its declining trendline and the 80.59 level to reverse its present weakness and bring gains towards the 81.77 level. Further out, resistance stands at the 82.53 level. All in all, USDJPY continues to face further downside risk.

 

[FXTechstrategy Team]

GBPUSD: Strengthens, Targets Further Upside.

GBPUSD: A third day of bullish build up is underway suggesting further gains could target 1.5720 level. Above here if it materializes will expose the 1.5774/78 levels. Beware of this zone as it harbors its Jun 20’2012 high and its daily 200 emas, two key sources of resistance. However, above here will open the door for a push further higher towards the 1.5857 level where a violation will expose the 1.6000 level. Price hesitation could occur here and then turn the pair back down. On the downside, it will take a return below the 1.5391 level to annul GBP’s present rally. This if seen will create scope for more declines towards its Jun 2012 low at the 1.5266 level. Below here will call for a move further lower towards its July 18’2010 low located at the 1.5122 level. On the whole, GBP now faces bullish offensive.

 

[FXTechstrategy Team]

EURUSD: Vulnerable Despite Recovery Attempts.

EURUSD: Unless a meaningful corrective recovery is staged, EUR still faces downside risk. As long as it holds below 1.2407 level, it looks to return to the 1.2162 level. Below here will resume its broader weakness towards the 1.2149 level, its Jun 27’2010 low. EUR may turn higher on testing this level but if that level breaks, further declines could shape up towards the 1.2100 level. Below here will turn risk towards the 1.2000 level. Its daily RSI is bearish and pointing lower supporting view. On the upside, the pair must break back above the 1.2286/1.2407 levels to annul its current weakness. This if seen will pave the way for a move further higher towards the 1.2748 level followed by the 1.2824 level. Further out, a cut through here will target the 1.2902 level. All in all, EUR remains biased to the downside medium term.

 

[FXTechstrategy Team]

EURUSD: Maintains Its Broader Downside Bias.

EURUSD: While a clear corrective recovery higher is not seen, EUR faces downside risk. This view remains intact while it holds below 1.2407 level. The big risk is for the pair to return to the 1.2162 level. Below here will resume its broader weakness towards the 1.2149 level, its Jun 27’2010 low. EUR may turn higher on testing this level but if that level breaks, further declines could shape up towards the 1.2100 level. Below here will turn risk towards the 1.2000 level. Its daily RSI is bearish and pointing lower supporting view. On the upside, the pair must break back above the 1.2286/1.2407 levels to annul its current weakness. This if seen will pave the way for a move further higher towards the 1.2748 level followed by the 1.2824 level. Further out, a cut through here will target the 1.2902 level. All in all, EUR remains biased to the downside medium term.

 

[FXTechstrategy Team]

USDCHF – Bull Pressure To Target The 0.9932 Level.

USDCHF: With the pair returning above the 0.9873 level the past week, further upside is envisaged as we enter a new week. In such a case, the 0.9932 level, its 200 weekly ema will be targeted with a breach turning risk towards its psycho level at 1.0000 level. Its weekly RSI is bullish and pointing higher suggesting further strength. On the downside, the immediate support lies at 0.9873 level where a reversal of roles is likely to occur and then turn the pair higher. However, if this fails to occur, more weakness will develop towards the 0.9675 level where a break will aim at the 0.9421 level. Below here will aim at the 0.9366 level. On the whole, the pair remains biased to the upside in the medium term having resumed its uptrend.

 

[FXTechstrategy Team]

EURUSD: Sees Further Bearish Momentum, Targets The 1.2149/11 Levels.

EURUSD: EUR continues to maintain its downside outlook as it sold off the past week, opening the door for more declines. The risk is for the pair to decline further towards the 1.2149 level, its Jun 27’2010 low. EUR may hesitate and possibly turn higher on testing this level but if that level breaks, further declines could shape up towards the 1.2100 level and then the 1.2000 level, its key psycho level. Its weekly RSI is bearish and pointing lower supporting this view. On the upside, the pair will have to break above the 1.2748 level to end its present weakness and turn attention to the 1.2824 level with a cut through here targeting the 1.2902 level. All in all, EUR remains biased to the downside on further weakness.

 

[FXTechstrategy Team]

USDJPY: Extends Bearish Momentum, Risk Points To Key Support.

USDJPY: With USDJPY bearish and following through lower on the back of its past week losses in early trading today, the risk is for more declines to occur towards its Jun 04'2012 low at 77.98. On continued declines below here, its major support located at the 77.66 level will be aimed at where a breach will pave the way for a move further lower towards the 77.00 level. Price hesitation may occur at this level but if this breaks, expect the pair to weaken further towards the 76.49 level. Its daily RSI is bearish and pointing lower suggesting further weakness. Alternatively, the pair will have to break and hold above the 79.78 level, its declining trendline and the 80.59 level to reverse its present bearishness. This should bring gains towards the 81.77 level and possibly the 82.53 level. All in all, USDJPY continues to face further downside risk in the medium term.

 

[FXTechstrategy Team]

USDCHF – Pushes Further Higher, Bull Pressure To Target The 1.0000 Level.

USDCHF: With the pair returning above the 0.9873 level the past week and following through higher to test the 0.9932 level, its 200 weekly ema during Monday trading session today, the broader risk is for USDCHF to target its major psycho level at 1.0000 level. We may see price hesitation ahead of or at this key level but if it eventually gives way, the pair should push further higher towards its Dec 2010 high at 1.0066. Its daily RSI is bullish and pointing higher suggesting further strength. On the downside, the immediate support lies at 0.9873 level where a reversal of roles is likely to occur and then turn the pair higher. However, if this fails to happen, more weakness will develop towards the 0.9675 level where a break will aim at the 0.9421 level. Below here will aim at the 0.9366 level. On the whole, the pair remains biased to the upside in the medium term.

 

[FXTechstrategy Team]

Technical Outlook, Strategies & Commentaries On The Major Currencies

Special Focus On AUDUSD (The Week Ahead)

AUDUSD: Sees More Bullish Momentum, Risk Points To The 1.0635 Level.

AUDUSD: With continued upside offensive seeing AUDUSD taking out the 1.0556 level the past week, risk of further bull pressure is likely. In such a case, its immediate resistance at the 1.0600 level will be targeted where a violation will set the stage for a run at the 1.0635 level, its Mar 19’2012 high. Further out, resistance resides at the 1.0700 level, its psycho level. Its weekly RSI is bullish and pointing higher supporting this view. On the downside, the alternative scenario will be for the pair to return to the 1.0556 level and then the 1.0442 level where a reversal of roles as support is likely to occur. But if these levels fail to hold, the pair will weaken further towards the 1.0380 level where a breach will aim at the 1.0290 and then the 1.0177 level. All in all, the pair continues to retain its short term bullish bias as it looks to strengthen further.

 

[FXTechstrategy Team]

Weekly Technical Strategist: EURUSD

EURUSD: Corrects Higher, Further Recovery Risk Likely.

EURUSD: With EUR taking back its earlier losses for the week to close higher on Friday, risk of further upside is now building up. In such a case, further upside is likely to occur in the new week with eyes on the 1.2407 level which also serves as its .50 Fib Ret (1.2748-1.2040 decline). We expect a combination of these levels to turn the pair back lower. However, if this fails, further corrective recovery risk could develop towards the 1.2482 level, its .618 Fib Ret. Its weekly RSI is bullish and pointing higher supporting this view. On the downside, the risk to its present upside offensive will be a return to the 1.2040 level. Below here should target the 1.2000 level, its big psycho level. We expect EUR to face price hesitation ahead of or at this level. In such a case, it could see it back off higher but if that level is breached, the pair should weaken further towards the 1.1950 level. All in all, EUR now faces corrective recovery risks.