FXTechstrategy Team: Forex Analysis

[FXTechstrategy Team]

EURGBP: Turns Lower off Trendline Resistance, Targets The 0.8010/0.7949 Levels.

EURGBP- With EURGBP closing lower the past week, after turning off its trendline resistance, the risk of weakening further is expected. In such a case, its key support located at the 0.8010/0.7949 levels will come in as the next downside target where a violation will call for a run at the 0.7840 level and then the 0.7800 level. Its broader medium term bias remains consistent with this view. On the upside, the pair will have to return above the 0.8154 level to resume its correction. This if seen will aim at the 0.8172 level where its declining trendline is located. We expect a back off lower at this level but if it breaks, further upside pressure should build up towards the 0.8250 level and then the 0.8423 level. Further out, the 0.8423 level comes in as the next upside target. All in all, the cross has lost upside momentum and now looks to resume its medium term.

 

[FXTechstrategy Team]

AUDUSD: Recovery Tone Intact While Above 1.0001/2 Levels

AUDUSD: With the pair holding firmly above its broken resistance at the 1.0001/2 levels, the risk is for more recovery to occur. This will leave further upside towards the 1.0143 level. Further out, resistance resides at the 1.0218 level. Its daily RSI is bullish and pointing higher supporting this view. On the downside, the risk to this analysis is a return to the 1.0001/2 levels where a violation will aim at the 0.9819 level. Further down, support comes in at the 0.9735 level where a breach will call for a run at the 0.9584 level. All in all, the pair continues to retain its recovery.

 

[FXTechstrategy Team]

USDJPY: Biased To The Downside Below The 79.78 Level.

USDJPY: As long as the pair continues to hold below the 79.78 level and 200 ema, we look for more weakness to occur. This development could see price extension targeting the 77.66 level. Below here will annul its recovery risk and resume its weakness. Further support stands at the 77.02 level. Its daily RSI is bearish and pointing lower supporting this view. On the other hand, the risk to this analysis is for USDJPY to return above the 80.14 level where a break will set the stage for a run at the 81.77 level. A break will signal further upside towards the 82.53 level. All in all, USDJPY has halted its correction and looks to weaken further.

 

[FXTechstrategy Team]

EURUSD: Sets Up To Target Further Upside.

EURUSD: Though the pair reversed most of its Monday losses on Tuesday, it will have to break and hold above the 1.2748 level to trigger its corrective recovery. In such a case, the 1.2824 level will be targeted where a breach will call for a move further higher towards the 1.2902 level. Its daily RSI is bullish and pointing higher suggesting supporting this view. The alternative scenario will be for the pair to return to the 1.2441 level where a break will aim at the 1.2286 level. Further down, support lies at the 1.2149 level. EUR could turn higher on testing and holding at this level but if that breaks, further declines could shape up towards the 1.2100 level. All in all, EUR remains biased to the upside on corrective recovery though vulnerable.

 

[FXTechstrategy Team]

AUDUSD: Risk Still Points To The Upside.

AUDUSD: A push further higher on Wednesday saw a failure ahead of its daily 200 ema before the pair closed lower. This leaves a pullback risk on the cards. However, it continues to retain most of its corrective gains triggered from the 0.9584 level. It now requires a break above the 222/42 level to resume the mentioned recovery towards its May 03’2012 high at 1.0325. A cap could occur here and possibly turn the pair lower. On the downside, the risk to this analysis is a return to the 1.0101 level where a breach will turn focus to the 1.0001/2 levels. We expect a reversal of roles as support here to occur but if that fails, the 0.9819 level will be targeted. Further down, support comes in at the 0.9735 level where a breach will call for a run at the 0.9584 level. All in all, the pair continues to retain its recovery tone.

 

[FXTechstrategy Team]

GBPUSD: Hesitating With Downside Bias.

GBPUSD: GBP continues to face bear threats following its Thursday sell off on the back of its price failure at the 1.5774 level. This leaves the pair vulnerable towards the 1.5613 level and ultimately its Jun 2012 low at the 1.5266 level. Below here will pave the way for a move lower towards its July 18’2010 low located at the 1.5122 level. Its daily RSI is bearish and pointing lower supporting this view. On the upside, the pair will have to return above the 1.5774 level to resume its corrective recovery towards the 1.5857 level where a violation if seen will target the 1.6000 level. Price hesitation could occur here and turn the pair back down. On the whole, GBP now faces bear threats having halted its price correction at the 1.5774 level.

 

[FXTechstrategy Team]

USDCHF – Halts Declines, Set To Recover Further.

USDCHF: Having rallied strongly to halt its corrective pullbacks started from the 0.9768 level, the risk in the new week is for USDCHF to extend that gain. If this is seen, the 0.9649 level should be targeted where a violation will aim at its May 2012 high at 0.9768 level. A decisive break and hold above here will resume its medium term uptrend initiated from the 0.7068 level. This will pave the way for a move further higher towards the 0.9850 level and possibly extending towards the 0.9944 level, its 200 weekly ema. The alternative scenario will be for the pair to return to the 0.9441 level where a breach will aim at the 0.9366 level. Further down, support lies at the 0.9331 level. On the whole, the pair remains biased to the upside in the medium term despite its corrective pullback risks.

 

[FXTechstrategy Team]

USDJPY: Takes Out Key Resistance, Eyes Further Upside.

USDJPY: The pair has taken out the 79.78 level, leaving the risk of further upside gains on the cards. The immediate risk points to the 80.52 level and subsequently its April 04’2012 high at 81.85. Further out, resistance resides at the 82.53 level. Its weekly RSI is bullish and pointing higher supporting this view. The alternative scenario will be for the pair to turn lower towards its broken resistance at 79.78 level. A reversal of roles a support is expected to occur here but if this level breaks, the 77.66 level will be aimed at. Further down, support lies at the 76.49 level and then the 75.57 level. All in all, USDJPY looks to recover higher in the new week.

 

[FXTechstrategy Team]

GBPUSD: Bearish, Extends Downside Pressure.

GBPUSD: With GBP extending its weakness following its last week bear pressure, further downside momentum is likely in the days ahead. In such a case, the 1.5452 level, its Jun 12’2012 low will be targeted where a break will aim at its Jun 2012 low at the 1.5266 level. A breather could occur here and turn the pair back up. But if this fails to materialize, further declines should develop towards the 1.5371 level, its Jun 06’2012 low. Below here will call for a move further lower towards its July 18’2010 low located at the 1.5122 level. On the upside, the pair will have to break and hold above the 1.5774 level to resume its corrective recovery towards the 1.5857 level where a violation if seen will target the 1.6000 level. Price hesitation may happen at this level and possibly turn the pair back down. On the whole, GBP now faces bear threats having halted its correction recover at the 1.5774 level.

 

[FXTechstrategy Team]

EURUSD: Extends Weakness, Pressure Builds On 1.2441.

EURUSD: Having continued to hold to its downside bias triggered in the past week, the key support to aim at lies at the 1.2441 level. With a breach of there opening the door for more declines towards the 1.2286 level. Below here if seen will resume its broader medium term weakness and call for a run at the 1.2149 level. EUR may turn higher on testing and holding above this level but if that breaks, further declines could shape up towards the 1.2100 level. Its daily RSI is bearish and pointing lower suggesting further weakness. On the upside, EUR will have to break and close above the 1.2748 level to annul its present weakness and then turn attention to the 1.2824 level. A cut through here will call for a move further higher towards the 1.2902 level. All in all, EUR remains vulnerable to the downside medium term.

 

[FXTechstrategy Team]

EURUSD: Pressured To The Downside, Set To Target The 1.2441 level.

EURUSD: With EUR remaining weak ,the key support to aim at lies at the 1.2441 level with a breach of there opening the door for more declines towards the 1.2286 level. Below here if seen will resume its broader medium term weakness and call for a run at the 1.2149 level. EUR may turn higher on testing and holding above this level but if that breaks, further declines could shape up towards the 1.2100 level. Its daily RSI is bearish and pointing lower suggesting further weakness. On the upside, EUR will have to break and close above the 1.2748 level to annul its present weakness and then turn attention to the 1.2824 level. A cut through here will call for a move further higher towards the 1.2902 level. All in all, EUR remains vulnerable to the downside medium term.

 

[Shakone]

Re: EURUSD: Pressured To The Downside, Set To Target The 1.2441 level.

So at 1:30pm it's already in an intraday downtrend, so you've said it's therefore likely to go and hit yesterdays low, and that you don't know whether it will bounce there or not. That the summary?

 

[FXTechstrategy Team]

USDJPY: Targets Further Declines.

USDJPY: Bear threats continue to be seen as a reversal of its one-day gain is now underway. On continued declines, the 78.61 level will come in as the next downside objective. Below here will reverse its recovery tone to downside tone leaving the risk of recapturing the 77.66 level on the cards. A cut through here will resume its medium term weakness and aim at the 77.02 level. Its daily RSI is bearish and pointing lower. The alternative scenario will be a return above the 80.59 level to occur. This if seen will set the stage for more corrective strength towards the 81.77 level. Further out, resistance stands at the 82.53 level. All in all, USDJPY has turned lower on price failure and now looks to weaken further lower.

 

[FXTechstrategy Team]

AUDUSD: Bull Pressure Set To Target The 1.0222/33 Level.

AUDUSD: With a sharp rally seeing AUDUSD reversing its Thursday weakness, there is risk of a return to the 1. 0222/42 levels. This if it occurs will resume its short term uptrend towards its May 03’2012 high at 1.0325. A cap could occur here and possibly turn the pair lower. Its daily RSI has turned higher supporting this view. Conversely, if its present upside attempt fails, expect the pair to return to the 0.9967 level. A trade below here will set the stage for a run at the 0.9819 level. Further down, support comes in at the 0.9735 level where a breach will call for a run at the 0.9584 level. All in all, the pair continues to retain its recovery tone.

 

[FXTechstrategy Team]

USDCHF –Weakens, Faces Bearish Risk

USDCHF: With the pair backing off higher prices at 0.9675 level to close lower the past week, we could see further weakness in the new week. However, we expect such weakness to be capped by the 0.9421 level, its Jun 18’2012 low. This should hold and drive the pair back up but if that fails to hold, further declines could follow towards the 0.9366 level and then the 0.9300 level. Its daily RSI is bearish and pointing lower supporting this view. Conversely, USDCHF will have to return above the 0.9675 level to annul its present bear threats and pave the way for a run at the 0.9850 level and possibly extending towards the 0.9932 level, its 200 weekly ema. On the whole, the pair remains biased to the upside in the medium term though facing bear threats.

 

[FXTechstrategy Team]

AUDUSD: Rallies, Resumes Short Term Uptrend.

AUDUSD: The pair has resumed its short term uptrend after reversing its previous week losses at the end of the week. This development now leaves the pair targeting further uptrend towards its May 03’2012 high at 1.0325. A cap could occur here and possibly turn the pair lower. The pair maintains a bullish upside momentum indicators suggesting further strength. On the downside, a return to the 0.9967 level is required to end its present upside offensive. This level may hold and turn the pair back up but if it fails, further declines could develop towards the 0.9819 level. Further down, support comes in at the 0.9735 level where a breach will call for a run at the 0.9584 level. All in all, AUDUSD now looks to strengthen further having resumed its short term uptrend.

 

[FXTechstrategy Team]

EURUSD: Retains Corrective Tone, Key Overhead Resistance Targeted.

EURUSD: With hammer-like candle formation driving EUR higher to close higher the past week, the risk is for further strength to occur. Though presently seen hesitating, most of its last week gains are still in place suggesting we could see the pair recapture the 1.2748 level where a break will annul its broader downside threats and pave the way for a move further higher towards the 1.2824 level. Further out, a cut through here will target the 1.2902 level. Its weekly RSI is bullish and pointing higher supporting this view. The alternative scenario will be for the pair to return below the 1.2407 level. This should push it further lower towards the 1.2286 level. Below here will resume its broader medium term weakness and call for a run at the 1.2149 level. EUR may turn higher on testing this level but if that breaks, further declines could shape up towards the 1.2100 level. All in all, EUR remains biased to the upside on further recovery

 

[FXTechstrategy Team]

EURUSD: Key Resistance Targeted Despite Price Hesitation.

EURUSD: Except we see EUR return below the 1.2407 level, our bias continues to point to the upside towards the 1.2748 level despite its present price hesitation. A break will annul its broader downside threats and pave the way for a move further higher towards the 1.2824 level. Further out, a cut through here will target the 1.2902 level. Its daily RSI is bullish and pointing higher supporting this view. The alternative scenario will be for the pair to return below the 1.2407 level, its Jun 28’2012 low. This if seen should push EUR further lower towards the 1.2286 level. Below here will resume its broader medium term weakness and call for a run at the 1.2149 level. EUR may turn higher on testing this level but if that breaks, further declines could shape up towards the 1.2100 level. All in all, EUR remains biased to the upside on further recovery

 

[FXTechstrategy Team]

USDCHF – Broader Risk Points Higher Medium Term.

USDCHF: Despite USDCHF’s price hesitation, its broader medium term bias continues to point higher. While holding above the 0.9421 level, the bias remains higher for a return above the 0.9671 level. This will turn risk to its May 2012 high at 0.9768 level. A decisive break and hold above here will resume its medium term uptrend initiated from the 0.7068 level. Further out, on continued strength USDCHF will aim at the 0.9850 level and possibly extending towards the 0.9932 level, its 200 weekly ema. The alternative scenario will be for the pair to continue its present downside pressure towards the 0.9421 level. Below here will aim at the 0.9366 level and then the 0.9331 level. On the whole, the pair remains biased to the upside in the medium term though seen hesitating.

 

[FXTechstrategy Team]

EURGBP: Sell Off, Pushes Below The 0.7949 Level.

EURGBP- With a strong sell off seeing EURGBP extending its downside on Friday and pushing through its key support at the 0.7949 level, its May 16’2012 low, there is likelihood of further declines in the days ahead. This if seen will pave the way for a run at the 0.7840 level and then the 0.7800 level. Its broader medium term bias remains consistent with this view. Its daily RSI is bearish and pointing lower supporting this view. On the upside, the pair will have to return above the 0.8154 level and its declining trendlines to resume its correction. We expect a back off lower at these levels but if broken, further upside pressure should build up towards the 0.8250 level and then the 0.8423 level. Further out, the 0.8423 level comes in as the next upside target. All in all, the cross has resumed its broader medium term downtrend tone.