EURUSD: The pair still retains its corrective pullback risks as it remains vulnerable despite a two-day attempts on the upside. Support is seen at the 1.2824 level where a violation will call for a move further towards the 1.2755 level. We expect a cap to occur here and possibly turn the pair higher again. Conversely, although EUR continues to hold on to its broader medium term upside, it will have to return above the 1.3171 level to resume its short term uptrend. This will open the door for a run at the 1.3282 level where a violation will call for a move further higher towards its weekly ema at 1.3415 level. All in all, EUR continues to maintain its corrective tone.
EURJPY- While the cross continues to build on its bullish tone, it will have to break and hold above the 103.85 level to end its bear threats. This if seen will pave the way for a run at the 104.42 level. And possibly the 105.00 level. Its daily RSI is bullish and pointing higher supporting this view. On the downside, support lies at the 100.70 level where a violation will open the door for a move lower towards the 99.51/63 levels. EURJPY may see a respite here and turn higher. Further down, support lies at the 97.80 level where a break will call for a push lower towards the 95.72 level. All in all, though maintaining its broader medium term upside, it will have to break above the 103.85 to trigger that trend.
USDCAD: The pair is under pressure for a second day in a row as a follow through on the back of its Thursday losses is underway. This leaves the risk of a return to the 0.9692/31 levels on the cards. A breach of here will call for more declines towards the 0.9500 level and then the 0.9400 level. Its daily RSI is bearish and pointing lower supporting this view. The alternative scenario will be the pair to return above the 0.9841/59 levels. This zone must hold to open up further upside risk towards the 0.9945 level. Further out, the 1.0000/83 levels come in as the next upside objective. All in all, USDCAD has halted its upside offensive and triggered a sell off.
USDJPY: With USDJPY continuing to be weak and vulnerable, further declines cannot be ruled out. As long as it holds below its falling trendline (red), this view remains valid. This leaves the risk of an eventual return return to the 77.13/00 levels on the cards. Below here will call for more declines towards the 76.49 level and then the 76.00 level. Its daily RSI is bearish and pointing lower supporting this view. On the upside, the pair must break and hold above the 79.64 level and its declining trendline to put on hold its medium term downtrend. This could push the pair further lower towards the 80.59 level where a breach will turn attention to the 81.77 level. All in all, USDJPY remains biased to the downside medium term despite its current recovery attempts.
EURGBP- The cross turned higher annulling almost all of its two-day declines and opening the door for more upside risks. This leaves the possibility of a return to the 0.8112/19 levels on the cards. A clearance of here will open the door for a run at the 0.8154 level and then the 0.8200 level. Its daily RSI is bullish and pointing higher supporting this view. Alternatively, support lies at the 0.8020 level where a violation will set the stage for a move further lower towards the 0.7950 level. Further support lies at the 0.7890 level. A cap is likely to occur and turn it higher. However, if here fails, further downside could develop further towards the 0.7811 level followed by its key support located at 0.7761. All in all, the cross remains biased to the in the short.
USDCHF: With an attempt on the upside failing and USDCHF closing marginally higher the past week, the risk of returning to the 0.9238 level continues to build up. If this occurs in the new week, further declines could shape up towards the 0.9193 level, its May 07’2012 low where a breach will aim at the 0.9100 level and ultimately the 0.9000 level, its big psycho level. Its weekly RSI is bearish and pointing lower supporting this view. On the upside, the pair will have to return above the 0. 9424 level to annul its current weakness and then resume its bullish offensive towards its Sept 10'2012 high at 0.9482. A cut through here will open up further upside gain towards the 0.9606 level. On the whole, the pair remains biased to the downside in the short term.
EURUSD: Although the pair closed marginally lower at the end of the week, it continues to hold on to its broader short term uptrend. This leaves EUR targeting the 1.3171 level, its Sept 17’2012 high with a turn above here calling for a move higher towards its weekly ema at 1.3415 level. Its weekly RSI points higher suggesting further strength. On the downside, the risk to this analysis will be a return to the 1.2824 level. Further down, support lies at the 1.2692/1.2748 levels where a reversal of roles could occur. This could see the pair back off lower prices and target the upside. However, if this fails to happen further declines will aim at the 1.2442 level. All in all, EUR looks to recapture the 1.3171 level and beyond.
EURUSD: Opens Up Further Upside Risks, Pressures Key Resistance
EURUSD: The pair broke and held above the 1.3073 level on Tuesday, opening the door for more upside offensive. This has set the stage for a run at the 1.3171 levels with a breach of here resuming its broader uptrend towards the 1.3282 level. A cut through here will call for a move further higher towards its weekly ema at 1.3415 level. Its daily RSI is bullish and pointing higher. Conversely, to annul its present bull offensive, a break and hold below the 1.2824 level must occur. This level is key as a break and hold below here could push EUR deeper towards the 1.2755 level. We expect a cap to occur here and possibly turn the pair higher again. If broken, expect further declines to develop towards the 1.2625 level. All in all, EUR faces further upside threats.
USDJPY: The pair is now seen back above its falling trendline and targeting the 79.64 level. USDJPY will have to hold above here on a daily closing basis to convince the market of further upside gains. This if seen could push the pair further higher towards the 80.59 level where a breach will turn attention to the 81.77 level. Alternatively, a failure to hold on to its present upside offensive could mean a return to the 77.13/00 levels. If however, this fails, expect USDJPY to weaken further towards the 76.49 level and then the 76.00 level. All in all, USDJPY faces further bull pressure.
GBPUSD: With GBP weak and vulnerable into the new week, it faces further bear threats towards its Oct 09’2012 low at 1.5976. On a decisive break and hold below here, the stage will be set for more declines towards the 1.5774/78 level with breach turning attention to the 1.5457 level. Its weekly RSI is bearish and pointing lower suggesting further declines. Alternatively, GBP will have to return above the 1.6177 level to reverse its present weakness. This if seen will pave the way for a run at the 1.6215 level. This could push the pair further higher towards the 1.6350 level. A breach will allow for more gains towards the 1.6400 level. On the whole, GBP continues to face downside pressure as it looks to weaken further.
USDJPY: Rallies, Pressure Builds On Key Psychological Level.
USDJPY: With a follow through higher currently seen and a break above the 79.64 level occurring, further bullish offensive is expected. This development will leave USDJPY targeting its psycho level at 80.00 level where a breach will turn focus to the 81.77 level. Its daily RSI is bullish and pointing higher suggesting further strength. On the downside, support lies at the 79.64 level initially where we may see a reversal of roles. However, if this level breaks, expect the pair to decline further towards the 78.63 level. Further down, support resides at the 77.13/00 levels with a cut through here targeting further declines towards the 76.49 level. All in all, USDJPY remains biased to the upside short term
USDJPY: Resumes Bullish Offensive, Eyes The 80.59 Level.
USDJPY: The pair has triggered its bullish offensive and presently threatens further upside. As long as the pair holds above the 79.64/21 levels, its broader upside bias remains intact. With that said, further strength is now likely towards the 80.59 level where a breach will turn attention to the 81.77 level. Its daily RSI is bullish and pointing higher supporting this view. Alternatively, a failure to hold on to its present upside offensive could mean a return to the 79.64/21 levels. Further down, support lies at the 77.13/00 levels. If however this fails, expect USDJPY to weaken further towards the 76.49 level. All in all, USDJPY faces further bull pressure.
USDCHF: With the pair continuing to look vulnerable despite its recovery attempt the past week, a return to the 0.9213 level is still a likely scenario. A decisive break of here will set the stage for a move lower towards the 0.9193 level, its May 07’2012 low where a breach will aim at the 0.9100 level and ultimately the 0.9000 level, its big psycho level. On the upside, the pair will have to follow through on its past week marginal gains to return to the 0.9424 level in order to reduce bear threats. Above here will resume its short term uptrend now on hold towards its Sept 10'2012 high at 0.9482 followed by the 0.9606 level. On the whole, the pair remains biased to the downside in the medium term.
USDCAD: With USDCAD maintaining its upside tone and holding firmly above the 0.9885 level, further price extension cannot be ruled. This leaves the possibility of a return to the 1.0000/83 levels on the cards. Its weekly RSI is bullish and pointing higher suggesting further upside. On the downside, support comes in at the 0.9885 level where a reversal of roles as support is likely to occur and turn the pair higher. However, if this fails, further declines should build up towards the 0.9692/31 levels. A breach of here will call for more declines towards the 0.9500 level. All in all, USDCAD remains biased to the upside above the 0.9883 level.
EURGBP: Biased To The Upside Above Trendline Support.
EURGBP- Although the cross may be vulnerable to the downside on correction, as long as it trades and holds above its rising trendline support (red), a return above 0.8163 level should occur. This if seen will resume its short term uptrend towards the 0.8200 level where a violation will call for more upside towards the 0.8268 level. Conversely, support lies at the 0.8001 level with a breach of the latter targeting the 0.7950 level. Further support comes in at the 0.7890 level. A cap is likely to occur and turn it higher. All in all, the cross remains biased to the upside in the short term despite its corrective threats.
EURUSD: Having continued to strengthen for a second day in a row, risk could be building up for a return to its key resistance at the 1.3171 level. This view remains valid unless a violation of the 1.2890/22 levels occurs. A breach of the 1.3171 level will resume its broader uptrend towards the 1.3282 level with a cut through here calling for a move further higher towards its weekly ema at 1.3415 level. Conversely, the pair will have to break and hold below the 1.2890/22 levels to put its medium term uptrend bias on hold. This if it occurs should bring deeper weakness towards the 1.2755 level. We expect a cap to occur here and possibly turn the pair higher again. But if broken, expect further declines to develop towards the 1.2625 level. All in all, EUR faces further upside threats medium term.
GBPUSD: Our upside target on further bullish offensive stands at the 1.6177 level. A break of here will reduce its broader bear threats. This if seen will pave the way for a run at the 1.6215 level. A push through here could see the pair target higher prices towards the 1.6350 level. Further out, resistance lies at the 1.6400 level. On the downside, support les at the 1.5976 level and the 1.5911 level. Further down, support comes in at the 1.5774/78 level with a break of here turning attention to the 1.5457 level. On the whole, GBP has halted its downside pressure but remains vulnerable.
GOLD: GOLD continues to weaken selling off strongly through the 1,698.00 level and opening the door for additional downside pressure. In such a case, the 1,667.00 level will be targeted with a cut through here allowing for more declines towards the 1,640.45 level. Further down, support lies at the 1,600.00 level where a respite is likely to occur. On the upside, the commodity must overcome its resistance the at the 1,698 level to reverse its current bearishness. This if seen will call for a run at the 1,750.00 where a violation will call for a move higher towards the 1,795 level. A violation of here will resume its medium term uptrend towards the 1,800.00 level. Further out, resistance comes in at the 1.850 level where. All in all, GOLD continues to hold on to its bearishness as it looks to weaken further in the days ahead.
USDCHF: With the pair closing marginally higher on the back of its previous week higher close, the risk is for a follow through to occur. However, USDCHF is trapped in a consolidation. In order for it to force further upside offensive, it will have to overcome the 0.9424 level. Above here will resume its short term uptrend now on hold towards its Sept 10'2012 high at 0.9482 followed by the 0.9606 level. Its weekly RSI is bullish and pointing higher supporting this view. Alternatively, as long as the pair remains below the 0.9424 level, there is risk of a return to the 0.9213 level. A decisive break of here will set the stage for a move lower towards the 0.9193 level, its May 07’2012 low where a breach will aim at the 0.9100 level and ultimately the 0.9000 level, its big psycho level. On the whole, the pair remains biased to the downside in the medium term despite its corrective attempts.
