FX-2007: Apr 02nd > Apr 6th

[Uphios]

I have the gbpjpy kissing the rising trendline at 234.16 and bouncing. Question now is does it try again or is that it?

 

[Atilla]

I have the gbpjpy kissing the rising trendline at 234.16 and bouncing. Question now is does it try again or is that it?

Well that last 5 / 10 min candle chart or bar chart is a bullish sign if it holds. Isn't that the hammer or pinochios nose?

Still watching it. EuroUsd doing some dance but still bearish and I'm long on that .

Time will tell.

 

[Uphios]

hey did any just see what the aud decision was on the rate change

Held steady, no change, 6.25%

 

[Uphios]

I see Dow news wire is suggesting take profits now on GBPUSD longs ahead of BoE meeting. Glad to see somebody is on my side!

 

[Atilla]

I see Dow news wire is suggesting take profits now on GBPUSD longs ahead of BoE meeting. Glad to see somebody is on my side!

Oh well bed time.

Last night I went in too fast and lost shorting GBPJPY.

Tonight did the work and thought it was a short but wanted confirmation. Now I got it but still not going in. Too late and I'm off to bed. Don't want any exposure... for rapid moves.

Will leave EurUsd long though as Euro can only go up imo. Got my limits set...

I take it from your reply you are expecting cable to fall. That means no rate rises I'd guess on Thursday. Either way Thursday should be interesting. :!:

 

[Priceman]

Yeh baby that was my prediction yesterday!

Hi guys, I'm in short now looking for 9720

Morning chaps,

Got it right yesterday but didn't stick with it all the way as I tinker when I watch the screen. Should go with the plan shouldn't I. Just working on the figures now for today's action. Will post when I work out my thoughts. Can't be right two days in a row

Good luck

 

[pssonice]

if u Got it right just yesterday, u r lost

.

 

[Priceman]

.if u Got it right just yesterday, u r lost

Hey Herman, I assume you are German and don't really understand my sarcasm and irony... go back to where you came from and pester someone else coz that's all you seem to do on this site

 

[The Pearl Fisher]

Bought in at 234.80

No idea of an exit target or any notion of a stop level. I’ll have to play this one by ear for the first couple of hours or so. Just a punt as I said.



TPF

Out of this trade about flat (-2)

Bad trade, poor entry. Cost me a full nights sleep, couple of missed heart beats along the way. Won't be touching GBP/JPY again. Very irregular price movements. I'll stick with GBP/USD.



TPF

 

[Atilla]

.

Morning all,

Just logged in and sat down Euro started it's move to 1.3350. I think this 1.3350 is a very significant level for the EURUSD. It has been up and down past that level ever since the 16th of March. Looking to sell around 1.3370

Bullish on cable today according to my 1 hr charts.

Not sure why both Euro and cable started their moves early this morning as no news has gone out.

Also, there is comment that

The yen will slump 5 percent this quarter, the worst start to a fiscal year since 1989, as Japanese invest more of their savings overseas

This might explain the rise of the GBPJPY recently.

Good day and good luck everyone

 

[Atilla]

Out of this trade about flat (-2)

Bad trade, poor entry. Cost me a full nights sleep, couple of missed heart beats along the way. Won't be touching GBP/JPY again. Very irregular price movements. I'll stick with GBP/USD.



TPF

Yep, I had this experience couple of nights ago.

Last night I thought I judged it right but missed out on the big swings and watched it for couple of hours. Such is live when you are risk averse...

Moves are dramatic and also the spread is 8 pips. EurUsd is 2 pips. Cable is 3 pips. Hence I prefer Euro and Cable.

 

[The Pearl Fisher]

Selling the GBP/USD this morning hoping the realisation will start to sink in that the UK interest rates will stay as they are this time around (my opinion)

Sold at 1.9765 (looking for 1.9630)

So stop exit will a little bit further away than usual, a precaution of any erratic and quickly retraceable upward movements throughout the day.


TPF

 

[29Investments]

With cable at this level this inexorable magnetism of 2 bucks is going to strt having some influence I think

Therefore any excuse to rally will be taken. If we can clear 830 then it will want to have a crack at 915 again and if that goes - Hello $2 !

 

[Offshore Trader]

I hope you are right 29. Long at 759. Resistance at 780/85 is the first area to pass

 

[Atilla]

With cable at this level this inexorable magnetism of 2 bucks is going to strt having some influence I think

Therefore any excuse to rally will be taken. If we can clear 830 then it will want to have a crack at 915 again and if that goes - Hello $2 !

On teletext Nationwide have reported robust housing price growth. 2.2% for this quarter.

Just closed pos on EURUSD at 1.3351. Looks like it's going to take another trip down to 1.3330 levels I think. Pips in the pocket better than out in the bush :cheesy:

 

[rav700]

What a nite I have had I aint slept for more than 2 hours.....I swear to god....This was one of my worst nightmare nights on trading....I had an order for the GBP\YEN @ 44 with a stop loss at 04...I swear the way it dropped....I thought I would be killed....I decreased my stop to 84 hoping for a bounce and then I did what I have been taught in trading physcology....Start thinking the reverse ie Go on hit my stop I dare you too and it did f***n work I came out at +15 on the trade at the end for seeing 000 losses to 000 profits and In the process my heart took a proper pounding along with my blood pressure....

Right now Today.......

AsI mentioned in my earlier post last night....
I am just expecting a small range for both the euro and cable.....
Also I am expecting the BOE to have more of an impact than the NFP...I know you may think this is strange
I think we have got till 12:10 to hit the 850 region after the bank of england comes out with no change in intrest rate statement we will see a huge sell off .....with a view to profit taking before the easter weekend as I think uphios or atilla mentioned...and I dont think people will worry to much about NFP they will just play the report as normal....may be a 50 pip spike either way and the continue selling off till close of play...
Just my thoughts....What do I know....

 

[Atilla]

What a nite I have had I aint slept for more than 2 hours.....I swear to god....This was one of my worst nightmare nights on trading....I had an order for the GBP\YEN @ 44 with a stop loss at 04...I swear the way it dropped....I thought I would be killed....I decreased my stop to 84 hoping for a bounce and then I did what I have been taught in trading physcology....Start thinking the reverse ie Go on hit my stop I dare you too and it did f***n work I came out at +15 on the trade at the end for seeing 000 losses to 000 profits and In the process my heart took a proper pounding along with my blood pressure....

Right now Today.......

AsI mentioned in my earlier post last night....
I am just expecting a small range for both the euro and cable.....
Also I am expecting the BOE to have more of an impact than the NFP...I know you may think this is strange
I think we have got till 12:10 to hit the 850 region after the bank of england comes out with no change in intrest rate statement we will see a huge sell off .....with a view to profit taking before the easter weekend as I think uphios or atilla mentioned...and I dont think people will worry to much about NFP they will just play the report as normal....may be a 50 pip spike either way and the continue selling off till close of play...
Just my thoughts....What do I know....

I was watching that drop and regretting not shorting at 234.55 at some point. But then it bounced. And then it was like a yoyo up and down up and down. Once bitten twice shy and I agree it's too temperamental. It's not worth risking a lot of capital with highly volatile instruments.

I'm not sure about your reverse pscyhology method though. When I feel stressed out I usually like to check my MAs make sure I'm on the right side and perhaps halve or reduce stake size.

Good luck matey...

 

[rav700]

I dont really feel like loosing any money during the day today....so I think I will wait till BOE tommorow.....
Uphios good thing you stayed out last night mate.....I am learning the art of patience from you...
I will post my zone studies in a bit.....

Best of luck scalpers
Today should be a good day for you all

 

[rav700]

I was watching that drop and regretting not shorting at 234.55 at some point. But then it bounced. And then it was like a yoyo up and down up and down. Once bitten twice shy and I agree it's too temperamental. It's not worth risking a lot of capital with highly volatile instruments.

I'm not sure about your reverse pscyhology method though. When I feel stressed out I usually like to check my MAs make sure I'm on the right side and perhaps halve or reduce stake size.

Good luck matey...

I have a disease called dontlooseophobia and the problem is I am trying to outwit this phobia by challenging the losses....(Joke)

Best of luck mate.....

Happy Trading
Rav

 

[rav700]

---
EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Hourly Studies Turning Higher -- $1.3411 Eyed
RES 4: $1.3501 Resistance line from 23 Jan
RES 3: $1.3481 Resistance line from Sept 1992
RES 2: $1.3432 Channel top from 23 Mar, top of Bollinger band
RES 1: $1.3411 High of current move
CURRENT LEVEL: $1.3340
SUP 1: $1.3325 50.0% of $1.3400 to $1.3254
SUP 2: $1.3313 Minor support 26 Mar
SUP 3: $1.3285 Daily low 30 Mar
SUP 4: $1.3255 Low 26 March
COMMENTARY: The hourly studies are recovering from oversold territory
now and implies risk of $1.3411 to perhaps target the channel top.
However, risk is on a fade at higher levels given the continued
bear-divergence signals on daily studies.
--
CABLE TECHS: Back Towards Bollinger Band Top
RES 4: $1.9917 High of current move Jan 23
RES 3: $1.9870 Daily Bollinger band top
RES 2: $1.9835 Daily high 24 Jan
RES 1: $1.9822 Hourly highs
CURRENT LEVEL: $1.9741
SUP 1: $1.9710 5-day moving average
SUP 2: $1.9665 Daily low 2 April
SUP 3: $1.9636 Minor trend 14 March
SUP 4: $1.9550 Daily low 30 Mar
COMMENTARY: Break above $1.9740/43 now seen extending gains to the
daily Bollinger band top at $1.9830/35 and nothing significant until the
January high at $1.9917. The key-day reversal pattern on Friday has
improved outlook.
--
DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Potential Double-Day High Reversal?
RES 4: Y120.40 2.00% moving average envelope
RES 3: Y119.70 Ichimoku cloud base
RES 2: Y119.25 1.00% moving average envelope
RES 1: Y119.00 Recovery low 16 Feb, high 3 Apr
CURRENT LEVEL: Y118.70
SUP 1: Y118.40/50 Major top March
SUP 2: Y117.95 Hourly channel base from 28 Mar
SUP 3: Y117.80 200-day moving average
SUP 4: Y116.75 Support line from 5 Mar
COMMENTARY: Upside objective at Y119.00 has been achieved and risk is
now on a potential double-day high reveral as the hourly studies show
bear-divergence signals. Break below Y118.70 now seen triggering the
correction to Y118.40/50 initially ahead of an hourly channel base at
Y117.95.
--
EURO-YEN TECHS: 1.00% Moving Average Envelope Widens To Y158.90
RES 4: Y160.88 Projected channel top from 8 Jan
RES 3: Y160.55 2.00% moving average envelope
RES 2: Y159.25 Daily high 27 Feb & Resistance line from 2 Mar
RES 1: Y158.85/90 Daily high 3 Apr & 1.00% moving average envelope
CURRENT PRICE: Y158.55
SUP 1: Y157.90 5-day moving average
SUP 2: Y157.60 Ichimoku cloud top
SUP 3: Y157.10 Tenkan line of Ichimoku cloud
SUP 4: Y156.65 Ichimoku cloud base
COMMENTARY: Upside is still seen as the least course of resistance as
the 1.00% moving average envelope widens to Y158.90 and above here gains
are seen projected to Y159.25, which is a resistance line from Mar 2.
The daily studies, whilst overbought, are maintaining their bullish
trends, in particular 14-day RSI. Support is at Y157.90.
--
EURO-STG TECHS: Trading With Heavy Tone -- Support At stg0.6750 Eyed
RES 4: stg0.6865 Daily high 27 July
RES 3: stg0.6845 Daily high 20 Mar
RES 2: stg0.6800/10 21-day moving average & 50.0% of stg0.6755-stg0.6867
RES 1: stg0.6790 Hourly high
CURRENT LEVEL: Stg0.6756
SUP 1: stg0.6745 200-day moving average, trend line from 16 Nov
SUP 2: stg0.6718 100-day moving average
SUP 3: stg0.6700 50.0% of stg0.6867 to stg0.6537
SUP 4: stg0.6680 Daily low 15 Feb
COMMENTARY: Cross continues to trade with a heavy tone and risk is on a
move to stg0.6745 -- 200-day moving average and trend line from 16 Nov.
This is pivotal support and break below here is seen extending move to
the 100-day moving average at stg0.6720. Resistance is at stg0.6790.

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