FX-2007: Apr 02nd > Apr 6th

[Offshore Trader]

I don't want to go too much against the flow but the pound has risen against everything in the last few days, so I don't know how it cannot be considered to have been strong. Of course there may be a reversal coming.......

 

[Uphios]

As someone said, the dollar's weak rather than the pound being strong. Long on cable again, so brace yourselves for an instant 200pip fall, chaps.

Do you really think so? I see the dollar as weak but also pound as strong. Or I suppose we could say USD is weak and so is JPY (against £) so is CAD and to a lesser extent so is EUR

 

[Uphios]

Read a report earlier from S&P on UK housing which suggested a cooling of the market after Spring, predicting soft landing. Good I thought, should encourage the BoE to leave rates where they are, but now this report so back to confused.


LONDON (Dow Jones)--U.K. corporate profitability rose to a record high in the final quarter of last year, data from the Office for National Statistics showed Tuesday.

The net rate of return for private non-financial corporations in the fourth quarter rose to 15.5%, up from an estimate of 15.2% in the previous period. That was the highest level since the quarterly series started in 1989.

Profitability in 2006 as a whole also marked an all-time high, rising to 15.1% from 14.3% in 2005. The annual series started in 1965.

 

[Atilla]

Do you really think so? I see the dollar as weak but also pound as strong. Or I suppose we could say USD is weak and so is JPY (against £) so is CAD and to a lesser extent so is EUR

Taking interest rate differentials out coupled with real interest rates wrt inflation

I would essentially look at BoP for strength in currencies. The rest is mirrors and smoke screens.

ECB raised rates and thinks another one might be needed.
BoE possibly needs another rate rise as real inflation is still high 4.35%?

Japan recently raised rates and US looks like it needs to raise theirs but due to stagflation and elections round the corner will no doubt drop it instead and sink the $

 

[rav700]

Will the us open run to the 815 mark for another attempt????
It has to move either way I think currently it has formed the support at 50 and we should see another run at 2:30...

 

[Atilla]

Read a report earlier from S&P on UK housing which suggested a cooling of the market after Spring, predicting soft landing. Good I thought, should encourage the BoE to leave rates where they are, but now this report so back to confused.


LONDON (Dow Jones)--U.K. corporate profitability rose to a record high in the final quarter of last year, data from the Office for National Statistics showed Tuesday.

The net rate of return for private non-financial corporations in the fourth quarter rose to 15.5%, up from an estimate of 15.2% in the previous period. That was the highest level since the quarterly series started in 1989.

Profitability in 2006 as a whole also marked an all-time high, rising to 15.1% from 14.3% in 2005. The annual series started in 1965.

BoE should only be concerned with inflation really. Not economic growth or unemployment. That is the old Keynesian model. We are now all Monetarists - I think anyway, not sure as I may be having an identity crises as the Fed now trying to balance rates with economic growth.

Anyway BoE supposed to control inflation at target of 2%. I think everybody agrees inflation is much higher. RPI, CPI and GPI (Gordon's Price Index :cheesy: ) who knows. Removing mortgage payments and fuel from the CPI is about daft as one can get - but Gordon Brown manages to see political wisdom in the move...

Another interest rate rise is on the cards by the BoE. Anything else like the Feds moves are just pure Bull S. in a bear market...

 

[Atilla]

Will the us open run to the 815 mark for another attempt????
It has to move either way I think currently it has formed the support at 50 and we should see another run at 2:30...

1.9755 is showing as a pivot point on my 4 hour charts. If it is breached it can drop to any of these levels imo.

Fib 23% = 1.9760
Fib 38% = 1.9721
Fib 55% = 1.9688
Fib 61% = 1.9655

Going by my hourly charts now, MA 9 & 18 about to cross over in a downward direction. MA 34 is at 1.9730.

If it does next target or resistance likely to be 1.9840s I'd guess.

Without any significant move people will simply withdraw and watch

I'm thinking cable will take a breather and retrace the same as this morning. Best to stay out and watch for the bounce. Still don't see a bounce yet.

.

 

[The Pearl Fisher]

I said on a clean break out I would be going long and reversing my trade....
I post and trade so sometimes things get confusing.........

Happy Trading
Rav...

But I post what I trade............

Good luck with your trading.




TPF

 

[29Investments]

can it keep going??? - still long from 55

 

[The Pearl Fisher]

Selling @ 1.9785 (looking/praying for 1.9670)


SL 1.9820

TPF

 

[rav700]

I am currently short with 2 positions on the GBP\JPY
234.57
234.92
I am looking for a big drop in the next 2 days....With a target of 228..............will this happen??

 

[The Pearl Fisher]

Selling @ 1.9785 (looking/praying for 1.9670)


SL 1.9820

TPF

I am out of this trade (Flat at 1.9785)



Decided to save myself £30 or so loss on this one. There is only so many £30 losses a man can take.

So I have decided to use the £30 to enjoy a nice meal this evening as apposed to handing it to a fat greedy merchant banker somewhere, sat on his fat greedy ass.




I shall contemplate my next trade.


TPF

 

[The Pearl Fisher]

I do apologise if any of you are indeed merchant bankers. I was referring to them being “fat and greedy “ figuratively, and from my own personal experience of fat greedy merchant bankers.



Thank you

TPF

 

[pipper]

Well, this post is carrying over from the last thread.

I made a trade on Friday at 2pm, when long on the USDJPY based on a signal and now I am up 120 pips. I hope this week is as successful as last week was.

 

[The Pearl Fisher]

Well, this post is carrying over from the last thread.

I made a trade on Friday at 2pm, when long on the USDJPY based on a signal and now I am up 120 pips. I hope this week is as successful as last week was.

Hi pipper,

What signal was this? Just had alook at your postings for last week, Not to clear where you entered or exited any trades.

If your selling something "I am not interested" I was curious as to what the signal is and what you have traded with it.


TPF

 

[wole]

Hi Rav fairly new to t2w I am currently short on GBP/JPY from 234.75 looking for a fairly rapid decline to

231.84 (23.6% fibb) then 229.80 (38.2% fibb) levels this is based on 1H chart the RSI is looking very OB

and starting to turn down hopefully will go down to the 50% fibb level which would give us the target you

gave of 228.00 time frame hopefully within the next 2 to 3 days.

 

[rav700]

Hi Rav fairly new to t2w I am currently short on GBP/JPY from 234.75 looking for a fairly rapid decline to

231.84 (23.6% fibb) then 229.80 (38.2% fibb) levels this is based on 1H chart the RSI is looking very OB

and starting to turn down hopefully will go down to the 50% fibb level which would give us the target you

gave of 228.00 time frame hopefully within the next 2 to 3 days.

Okay Just 2 things...so far I have 2 short positions open......
I will be adding to my shorts at higher levels....The maximum I expect is the 235.50 and then it should be boom.....The problem as I have said is in such a bullish market...you have to go with the flow and T.A plays a very minor role.....

Best of luck.....

Happy Trading
Rav

 

[The Pearl Fisher]

You know rav having looked closely at the GBP/JPY I would have a punt on that at 234.90 (buy) between now and opening of London tomorrow.

But I can see your point of view too.

Best of.


TPF

 

[The Pearl Fisher]

Bought in at 234.80

No idea of an exit target or any notion of a stop level. I’ll have to play this one by ear for the first couple of hours or so. Just a punt as I said.



TPF

 

[pipper]

Hi pipper,

What signal was this? Just had alook at your postings for last week, Not to clear where you entered or exited any trades.

If your selling something "I am not interested" I was curious as to what the signal is and what you have traded with it.


TPF

I am sorry, looking back my posts were kind of vague, but I think I was just caught up in the excitement, and didn't bother logging my trades thouroughly. Anyway, you can see from my posts last week that I was long(USDJPY) going into the weekend. This signal is still open, and still up 120 pips.