FX-2007: Apr 02nd > Apr 6th

[Atilla]

this is only the third time in 20 years NFP falls on a Good Friday. the previous 2 times, it has been big surprises (no surpise there, since no liquidity).

my view is that there is nothing from here till NFP. Then a big move, that we cant obviously take, then flat.

catch you monday.

Hi night owls,

I'm short on GBPJPY from 233.93. Moved in based on the 15m charts.

Basically, my reasoning is no rate rises in UK and so falling GBP.
Trend down last couple of days.
MAs about to cross, BB narrowing. Parabolic SAR showing red dots.
Also price dropped below pivot points.

I might have jumped the gun but I'm expecting falls to 233.40 regions. SL 234.22 regions. Will move quickly out of it.

Not my usual cautious nature but I had a few pips I thought why not risk for something a little more.

 

[Uphios]

Hi night owls,

I'm short on GBPJPY from 233.93. Moved in based on the 15m charts.

Basically, my reasoning is no rate rises in UK and so falling GBP.
Trend down last couple of days.
MAs about to cross, BB narrowing. Parabolic SAR showing red dots.
Also price dropped below pivot points.

I might have jumped the gun but I'm expecting falls to 233.40 regions. SL 234.22 regions. Will move quickly out of it.

Not my usual cautious nature but I had a few pips I thought why not risk for something a little more.

Good for you atilla, no risk = no reward. Besides, that fence gets uncomfortable after a while. Hope it works out for you, like your reasoning and tempted to join you.

 

[Atilla]

Good for you atilla, no risk = no reward. Besides, that fence gets uncomfortable after a while. Hope it works out for you, like your reasoning and tempted to join you.

I think the slot I picked at 234.00 is really bad. Not good for the nerves.

A little alarmed by jacinto's long cable sentiments but given manufacturing stats coming out below expectations there is the question will the UK really need another rate rise. I think probably yes but there is the "perhaps not" spanner in the mind-works.
I dunno.

I think fib retrace to 1.96 regions - 38% is a possibility in the next couple of days and given NFP stats, will risk it for a jaffa biscuit... Or is that a jaffa cake? I dunno

Everything is so confusing these days... :cheesy:

 

[Uphios]

NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--The dollar, still licking its wounds after dropping to a two-year low against the euro Thursday, could see more downside next week on persistent worries about the U.S. economy.

But U.S.-centric issues aren't the only possible knock on the greenback. Economies in the euro zone have started to outperform, providing incentives for investors to trade in their dollars for the 13-nation currency.

"We've had plenty of positive data out of Europe recently that still hasn't been adequately reflected in its prices," said Camilla Sutton, currency strategist at Scotia Capital in Toronto. "So we see the potential for more dollar-weakening next week, but at a slow pace."


However, the rest of the article goes on to say the yen is seen as even weaker than the dollar.

 

[Atilla]

NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--The dollar, still licking its wounds after dropping to a two-year low against the euro Thursday, could see more downside next week on persistent worries about the U.S. economy.

But U.S.-centric issues aren't the only possible knock on the greenback. Economies in the euro zone have started to outperform, providing incentives for investors to trade in their dollars for the 13-nation currency.

"We've had plenty of positive data out of Europe recently that still hasn't been adequately reflected in its prices," said Camilla Sutton, currency strategist at Scotia Capital in Toronto. "So we see the potential for more dollar-weakening next week, but at a slow pace."


However, the rest of the article goes on to say the yen is seen as even weaker than the dollar.

Yep I was bullish on Euro too but missed out. I think I have become very over cautious in the last two weeks. My win loss ratio has improved dramatically however, Now thinking of raising my stakes.

Anyway here are some useful links and the second one being on NFP...

http://www.briefing.com

NonFarm Payrolls

I'm going really riskayipiyaayoo tonight and leave 4 positions open over night.

Good luck everyone....

 

[jacinto]

actually, just changed my view. already took 2/3 of profit for +50 (i.e. +100 on the equivalent remainding lot), so, instead of Breakeven on that last lot, lowering stop to -100 (i.e. 9590) for a full BE trade.

so, BE on the full positon or exit at 9883 for +50x 2 lots + 200x1 lot. otherwise, it means +100 on the original trade

edit: im not bullish on cable, just bearish on the dollar.

edit 2: I will probably reverse short if and when 9890 happens.

 

[Atilla]

actually, just changed my view. already took 2/3 of profit for +50 (i.e. +100 on the equivalent remainding lot), so, instead of Breakeven on that last lot, lowering stop to -100 (i.e. 9590) for a full BE trade.

so, BE on the full positon or exit at 9883 for +50x 2 lots + 200x1 lot. otherwise, it means +100 on the original trade

edit: im not bullish on cable, just bearish on the dollar.

edit 2: I will probably reverse short if and when 9890 happens.

Thank you for that clarification jacinto. I would agree the $ has some more way to go.

ZZzz everyone...

 

[Uphios]

US lowest jobless rate since May 2001. I tell you, the US are mugging the rest of the world. Notice too how when Europe is reported as becoming a 'powerhouse' is mentioned it is always in reference to Germany, they convienently forget economies like Italy. The whole thing is stage managed to let US safely passage any downturn.

 

[jacinto]

then play with them. sell the buck until its so weak you then buy it. lol

 

[chestney]

Oanda

Yes, true to form, crashed again.

The claim to being a professional platform looking a tad weak.

 

[Uphios]

then play with them. sell the buck until its so weak you then buy it. lol

Your right Jacinto, that's what I should be doing. I keep falling into the trap of doing what appears to make sense when really I should be playing the game regardless of it making sense. Difficult sometimes though.

 

[rav700]

Got Stuffed short on the wrong price GBP\JPY at 16 with a stop @ 86 ......I am now contemplating cutting my losses or should I let it roll ..hmmmm comments gbp\jpy traders

 

[Priceman]

....for jacinto....marked are the points of interest...see if you can add the explanations to the chart....send pm.

Can anyone else play Mr M? This is a great exercise for all on this thread... providing everyone can be bothered to have a go... come on chaps step up to the plate. Mr Marcus has got a great knowledge of the markets to help us along...

 

[Atilla]

Can anyone else play Mr M? This is a great exercise for all on this thread... providing everyone can be bothered to have a go... come on chaps step up to the plate. Mr Marcus has got a great knowledge of the markets to help us along...

Hi everyone,

I've had a very busy day making money the hard way and losing it the easy way...

Typical, going riskaye for the first time in good many days and get slapped with negative pips. It has undone my weekly gains and beyond, leaving me down on the week.

However, I'm still in play and I can't wait for Monday & Tuesday....

When one is away from the screen its not a good idea to leave one self exposed. Especially with the NFP coming out. What possessed me no idea. Pyschologically, I've learnt something about my self which needs addressing.

When I make pips, I start to risk more pips. Confidence out of control kinda problem. I noticed I did this twice this week. Only setting one self up to fall back down again with a thump. It wasn't a big thump but a little bump never the less.

On the NFP good jobless stats is a bullish sign for cable imo. It means inflationary pressures. Continued BoP and budget defecit. Not sure I know where the US economy is going with all this but it's not postiive. Postponing the day of debt/credit balance means the fall when it does come is going to be that much harder to bear.

Instead what happens $ rises. Incorrect long term analysis imo.

I wasn't in cable but did have positions open on the SPX and GBPJPY and so took a double whammy.

Good sunny day with nice food and well earnt dosh the traditional way. Shouldn't grumble really.

As for the chart Priceman fwiw here is my take...

I can spot the SARs - Once established trade the range marked by hammers and hanging man... Essentially, graph is looking at establishing support levels and confirming.

Candlesticks Hammers one of the best turn signals marked by X. Entry points

Can't make heads or tails out of two red down arrows. Confirming resistance I'd guess.

Purple line obviously signal that a previous low is breached direction is down possibly add to short signal. However, I would suggest 1.9675 becomes a stronger SAR than the purple line.

Really would like to see BBs without them I feel I'm missing part of the picture.

Tails off with a retrace at the end probably .23% which is weak indicating continued falls.


Have a good weekend everyone... Enjoy all that you do...

 

[Joules MM1]

I think it was George Foreman who said ;

Let the other guy have whatever he wants before the fight. Once the bell rings he's gonna be disappointed anyway.

yep, that's my defense...........to wit;

first, strength and impulsivity of the initial downmove gives me an idea of who is in the game......the sideways tells me who is not in the game........the initial downmove into A doesnt carry a lot of weight, doesn't appear impulsive into the low and the rejection pass the high of the third candle suggests a farming........some squeezing.........after that inital activity into initial prior ceiling of "ri" price is ever more laboured in the pull-back........now a lot of reactive, long players (smaller fry) are trapped........they are probably your technical players...........I have placed a horizontal arrow to display the probability of a first sup at "s2".......the fast candle and first false break (FB1) is an insight that liquidity has dried, the bigger players have largely disappeared adn the the few reamaining want to hold this price......they won't mind spending to get back...........so let's go back to "B" where the choppy and laboured and overlapping pull-back would have played with the head of a few more long players.........it all leads to the mini purge resulting in the long candle.........at this stage I am still not in.......this is all looking very dodgy.......a game I don't quite understand, yet.........in the middle of the "B' there is a small green bar.........the first initial resistance goes into this from the false break at FB1 and the confirming base from FB1 which occurs just after the an attempt to draw in more long players.........doesn't take much to move price at this juncture............a few fellow elliotticians are probably scratching their heads at this point.............as the game within the game unfurls the time is the biggest piece of evidence that either the majors have gone home or are merely waiting for the most to swim into the net as possible..........not withstanding that not all the fish are small and some will be multi account holders..........standing aside appears to remain the focus.........risk aversion.............time rolls over to another day, this may or may not play significantly into the play by the larger cap..........probably does.........too easy to get sidetracked on these fundamental issues even though they may include some mechanical characteristics such as carry, close books, holiday etc etc...........in "C" we have two unhealthy attempts to buy into and suck-into...........both are smaller plays for smaller players and a narrowing of focus..........there's no clear demand and no clear dumping of supply........not yet for either side.........by now I'm getting a negative bias..........as I'm still talking AT the price with my opinion I want to sit shtume until I get a better signal (either way).........not being in the trade always affords time to think.........in "C" I get the confirmation of the overlapping climb, I see a solid ceiling which leads to an even more concentrated price focus...........lottsa little fish biting at each others tails.........getting toward 7.00 o'clock........ two false breaks (FB2 FB3)......straight back into the channel with you little *******s.........some testing of strength, who's ready to bite .........sure there's some titbit about pommy troops captured, subprime.........it's all in the heads of the smallfish......the larger fish can play around with that..........still have a some trapped long players...........the false breaks are part of the farming process.......mines bigger than yours sorta thing.........for the small fish who didnt read the covering play at the previous 1.00 o'clock get-out the disposition has become nervous.........by now most of the small-fry got that gut-wrench happening.........doesnt look right..........after FB2 and FB3 the focus gets renarrowed...........there are times where size is everything and most of the sidweways move is about that.........not real demand not real supply.........not at the large level.......this is easy to see in hindsight so am typing as I think I would be seeing the action..............the elliottician in me wants to talk about the zigzags at lower degrees and how they form 3s and if i got really boared I'd probably throw on a fibonacci just to prove how robust those fractals are.........HAHA...........it's tough to avoid going into past regimes and strategies when the price is doing this..........of course this all being thought about at a faster speed than I can type........jeez, is this a book yet?..........anyway, we're into the time peirod of larger money activity.........check the brewery, yep, the beers just about ready to drink.......at this point my entrance is based on the lower degree activity as you can see in "E"........and my stop is immediately above this (this is a mental stop).......after the last red bar that intially attempts to break S2 I'll then set mental stop above that bar..........once the long green tailed candle gaps then I'll move my mental stop down to that level and I'll add to the sell at that level with a buyback of that second tranch set at the lower (poss support) purple patch and a buyback of the first tranch at the white patch..........the actual exact numbers arent listed......the object of the transaction is to "see" flow as best I can........in fact, the operation is the other way around, see the psychology of the weak, see the transacting of the size within each play.........I havent gone into the gap-down at the end, its likely participants or supply push or lack of demand or who is likely to be buying all the sells.........that's important, yes, I get that, each phase carries equal weight in summation..........I am always doing something in the game......that is, sitting out.........the question is not necessarily where do I enter/exit, but, rather, where and what are other people doing, for whiich target, at what time.............

I'm a tad fried at trying to get that onto this page and I know I'll come back in a couple of days and spot an integral signal that Ive practised, so much, that Ive taken for granted everyone else sees or I am going to find out that .........the one thing I would say is that I havent placed a post into this site for several days and the 2k odd posts I have placed are gone........ther'es good reasons for that..........97% of trader wealth is controlled by 3% of the players........so I'm told............

any reply that you see fit to render is eagerly looked forward to.........now, where's my superglue so I can attatch my left frontal lobe to my right........coffee, give me coffee



cin cin

 

[Joules MM1]

I should also point out that what came before what is in this chart is of pivotal........support and what lead to the action on the 5th.........the game is never on one plain, never over one linear period, never governed by one intention or size

 

[geldmeister]

Fascinating dialogue. I was looking at the channels, as price was applying pressure to the short term support from the last few days. I am thinking there were a lot of tech traders trying to get a short in place on the break or the red support line, which I believe price will drift back north on a squeeze of those players and retest the support now resistance.

Question is will the following short make a new low?

gm