The Pearl Fisher
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Also just entered a short position on the EUR/USD @ 1.3354 (exit 1.3280) stop (1.3394)
TPF
TPF
rav700
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Latest developments from Iran: Iran seeks the release of 5 Iranians detained by the US in Iraq. We presume that Tehran is calling for this release in exchange of freeing the British sailors free. This could extend the stand off to an undefinite period, which may start to weigh on risk appetite.
Quiet FX trading did not prevent the yen from extending weakness across the board as Japanese institutions are seeing reversing some of their pre-fiscal year-end repatriation, shifting investments abroad. Expectations of an amicable resolution in Iran-UK standoff over the captured British sailors is helping to appease market nervousness, shedding $1 from US crude prices to $64.88 per barrel. The yen’s weakness is especially notable, as the currency hits 1-month lows against the dollar, euro and sterling.
Focus shifts to the US housing market with the 10 am EST release of the pending home sales index expected to have dropped 0.5% to 108.2 in February after a 4.1% decline in March. Further declines imply that the 4.5% increase in December was largely driven by favorable conditions, thereby corroborating the notion that the housing slowdown is far from over. A figure of 105 or less could drive up concerns of deterioration in housing and further boost the already strengthening British pound and Aussie, both of which are steady ahead of this week’s central bank decisions.
USDJPY seen capped at 118.90
Yen weakness is being driven by a relative stabilization on the risk meter as far as Iran and sub-prime defaults are concerned. The yen’s retreat is also reducing any chances that next week’s G7 meeting will address the currency’s volatility or Bank of Japan policy. Recall that the February G7 meeting was fraught with speculation on whether policy makers would address the yen’s weakness at multi-year lows. This week, the focus shall remain with the unfolding situation in Iran, Wednesday’s release of the US services ISM and Friday’s US non-farm payrolls.
USDJPY technicals, show the pair has broken above the major resistance of 118.40, with the next target standing at 118.90, which is the intersection point of the 55 and 100-day moving averages. An upside surprise in today’s US data should help boost the pair towards 119, but resistance is noted significant at 119.16—the 61.8% retracement of the 121.71-115.04 decline. Support starts 118.35, backed by 118.00. Key foundation remains at 117.6.
EURUSD little changed
The FX focus remains away from the euro as the pair lingers around the 1.3350-60s. ECB's Klaus Liebscher reiterated the usually hawkish rhetoric from the central bank indicating that monetary policy is accommodative and that rates are low. Despite the euro’s gains vs. the yen, the return of risk aversion may weigh on the EURUSD. The 4-hour chart suggests further declines to target the 1.3330s, but the pair may remain indirectly underpinned by markets’ expectations of a Bank of England rate hike this Thursday. Tomorrow’s US releases on services ISM and ADP private payrolls. Any upside surprise in the US pending home sales may drag the pair towards 1.3320 until 1.3290 support. Upside capped at 1.3380 and 1.3420.
Cable’s seen supported ahead of BOE
Cable dropped by nearly a cent and a half to 1.9760 in light of the continued Iran-UK standoff, which could be prolonged after the latest remarks from Iranian officials seeking the US release of 5 Iranian in Iraq. The pair shrugged the rise in construction PMI, but stability is expected to return at 1.9730. The pair was propped yesterday on emerging speculation of a Bank of England rate hike this week after the Times "shadow" monetary policy committee has called for a rate hike this week. The shadow MPC is organized by the Institute of Economic Affairs and has accurately predicted all of the BoE’s last three rate hikes, including the two shock rate hikes of August 2006 and February 2007. All but 1 of the 9-member shadow MPC say the BoE should raise rates by 25 bps this week to 5.50%. Upside capped at 1.9780 followed by 1.9820.
Quiet FX trading did not prevent the yen from extending weakness across the board as Japanese institutions are seeing reversing some of their pre-fiscal year-end repatriation, shifting investments abroad. Expectations of an amicable resolution in Iran-UK standoff over the captured British sailors is helping to appease market nervousness, shedding $1 from US crude prices to $64.88 per barrel. The yen’s weakness is especially notable, as the currency hits 1-month lows against the dollar, euro and sterling.
Focus shifts to the US housing market with the 10 am EST release of the pending home sales index expected to have dropped 0.5% to 108.2 in February after a 4.1% decline in March. Further declines imply that the 4.5% increase in December was largely driven by favorable conditions, thereby corroborating the notion that the housing slowdown is far from over. A figure of 105 or less could drive up concerns of deterioration in housing and further boost the already strengthening British pound and Aussie, both of which are steady ahead of this week’s central bank decisions.
USDJPY seen capped at 118.90
Yen weakness is being driven by a relative stabilization on the risk meter as far as Iran and sub-prime defaults are concerned. The yen’s retreat is also reducing any chances that next week’s G7 meeting will address the currency’s volatility or Bank of Japan policy. Recall that the February G7 meeting was fraught with speculation on whether policy makers would address the yen’s weakness at multi-year lows. This week, the focus shall remain with the unfolding situation in Iran, Wednesday’s release of the US services ISM and Friday’s US non-farm payrolls.
USDJPY technicals, show the pair has broken above the major resistance of 118.40, with the next target standing at 118.90, which is the intersection point of the 55 and 100-day moving averages. An upside surprise in today’s US data should help boost the pair towards 119, but resistance is noted significant at 119.16—the 61.8% retracement of the 121.71-115.04 decline. Support starts 118.35, backed by 118.00. Key foundation remains at 117.6.
EURUSD little changed
The FX focus remains away from the euro as the pair lingers around the 1.3350-60s. ECB's Klaus Liebscher reiterated the usually hawkish rhetoric from the central bank indicating that monetary policy is accommodative and that rates are low. Despite the euro’s gains vs. the yen, the return of risk aversion may weigh on the EURUSD. The 4-hour chart suggests further declines to target the 1.3330s, but the pair may remain indirectly underpinned by markets’ expectations of a Bank of England rate hike this Thursday. Tomorrow’s US releases on services ISM and ADP private payrolls. Any upside surprise in the US pending home sales may drag the pair towards 1.3320 until 1.3290 support. Upside capped at 1.3380 and 1.3420.
Cable’s seen supported ahead of BOE
Cable dropped by nearly a cent and a half to 1.9760 in light of the continued Iran-UK standoff, which could be prolonged after the latest remarks from Iranian officials seeking the US release of 5 Iranian in Iraq. The pair shrugged the rise in construction PMI, but stability is expected to return at 1.9730. The pair was propped yesterday on emerging speculation of a Bank of England rate hike this week after the Times "shadow" monetary policy committee has called for a rate hike this week. The shadow MPC is organized by the Institute of Economic Affairs and has accurately predicted all of the BoE’s last three rate hikes, including the two shock rate hikes of August 2006 and February 2007. All but 1 of the 9-member shadow MPC say the BoE should raise rates by 25 bps this week to 5.50%. Upside capped at 1.9780 followed by 1.9820.
Offshore Trader
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I don't know if other people are seeing these prices but I have got EUR @ 1.3353 JPY @118.91 and EUR/JPY @158.69 whereas if you work out the cross it should be about 10 points higher. If I had enough cash there must be a good arbitrage opportunity here
Offshore Trader
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I should have added that Cap Spreads are quoting 86-89 when most others are quoting 77-80
rav700
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The Pearl Fisher said:
This should be a good trade
I mean there is a triangle pattern on 30 mins,1Hour and 4Hour which I can see and I am not expecting a major breakout ...So I think it might range trade within this traingle
I have added another short @ 61 with a stop @ 91....
Happy Trading
Rav
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29Investments
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Wish we could get up 20 pips or so, am feeling very nervous being quite heavily long as we bump along this 725/30 support area
Edit 1:
Come on Cable !!!!!!!!!!!!!
UK PMI abv exp
US ISM below
Get up there !!!
Edit 2:
Well Thank you :-0
Edit 1:
Come on Cable !!!!!!!!!!!!!
UK PMI abv exp
US ISM below
Get up there !!!
Edit 2:
Well Thank you :-0
Last edited:
The Pearl Fisher
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29Investments said:
Have you made a bit then 29?
Well done
TPF
29Investments
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The Pearl Fisher said:
Well I've got my nose back above water
Lets see if we can get through the previous resistance at 770
Love your signature by the way !
Last edited:
Atilla
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29Investments said:Well I've got my nose back above water
Lets see if we can get through the previous resistance at 770
Love your signature by the way !
Looks like everyone is having fun today and I'm missing out.
Nice to see EURUSD - 1.3376 and falling. If it bounces off 1.3370-60 regions and breaks through 75 this could very well look like a BB break out on my 10 min charts. MAs all moving up too. Should have held but got out too soon. Story of my life...
Cable seems to be playing the same game. Having broken out of that flat sideways move I think this is going to oscillate between 1.98 and 1.97 until something kicks it up.
I still don't think the bank with raise rates. Thinking of shorting it now. But thinking is all I'm doing a lot of recently. Out of both instruments.
Just decided to short Cable at 1.9768, SL @ 1.98 - Target = 1.9730
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29Investments
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I've closed my long at 766 snd will wait to buy at a lower level
The Pearl Fisher
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Atilla said:
Well this is my strategy too Atilla. Keeping my short positions open until tomorrow will be key.
My opinion and against popular consensus is the BoE interest rate will be held.
TPF
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Atilla
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The Pearl Fisher said:
Yes I'm thinking the same. Only 3/4 months is insufficient time for interest rates to take effect. Also speaking to some of my clients they tell me business is so so. Upon questioning you find out it's a little unusually slow for this time of year. I think they are the best barometer of business I know.
The only reservation I have are these house price increases but do you really want to rock the debt boat.
Finally, given one member voted for a drop last month, what has changed since then? Not much imo.
How about a little show of hands for rate increase...
No Raise v Rate Increase
2 v 0
Oooops Sorry...
29Investments
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For some reason the market seems convinced there is one more raise in there. Its possible that if no change tomorrow poeple will just adjust their expectation for a raise next time. Granted there will likely be a small pullback but I'm betting this will be temporary and cable resumes its upward climb
