Full time trading does it really pay

[meanreversion]

Fair enough. So just to clear things up, if your account is $5k, how many $ would you anticipate making a week, and what is the worst $ loss you've taken on a single trade?

 

[brettus]

Why do some people find it so hard to define their risk per trade? I suppose if you're not using stops it becomes a little problematic.

Irrespective of how he reports it, I'm struggling with the $5k account balance thing after years of making 30%+ a week.

You know, it is entirely possible that fayalac is an awesome trader. Given enough traders, one of them could get very lucky, although that STILL doesn't explain the small account size after such a lengthy period of incredible performance. (and I use that adjective literally - incredible = not credible)

I look forward to being sworn at!

Yea. If i was making 30%+, or according to him at least 300 pips, which according to his calculations is 90%. 90% at least for the last 6 months. On a 1$ account is roughly 17.7mio $
Yea sure. Even 30% a week on a 5k$ account means he should have over 4.5mio $.

 

[fayalac]

fair enough. So just to clear things up, if your account is $5k, how many $ would you anticipate making a week, and what is the worst $ loss you've taken on a single trade?

i anticipate i will win a week at least 1,000 pips but that is something i really dont know. I learnt many years ago that i will not force the markets to give me something they can not offer, so i start the week setting the way at which i will be searching for my opportunities and the rest is to wait untill the chance shows up, when it does, then i start analyzing my s/r to foresee how many pips i can get from that specific trend, these is why when the chance shows up i have a very high probability to profit from it.
The worst loss i have taken in a single position is about 350 pips

 

[meanreversion]

i anticipate i will win a week at least 1,000 pips but that is something i really dont know. I learnt many years ago that i will not force the markets to give me something they can not offer, so i start the week setting the way at which i will be searching for my opportunities and the rest is to wait untill the chance shows up, when it does, then i start analyzing my s/r to foresee how many pips i can get from that specific trend, these is why when the chance shows up i have a very high probability to profit from it.
The worst loss i have taken in a single position is about 350 pips

In pure dollar terms, forget pips.

How many dollars would you expect to make a week? Or what is your average dollar profit per week?

 

[fayalac]

yea. If i was making 30%+, or according to him at least 300 pips, which according to his calculations is 90%. 90% at least for the last 6 months. On a 1$ account is roughly 17.7mio $
yea sure. Even 30% a week on a 5k$ account means he should have over 4.5mio $.

i never said i was making 90% a week.
I said i am making from 30 to 60% a week according to my last year performance, it results from the amount of pips i win each week wich ranks from 1,000 to 2,000.
If i had no need to withdraw money from my account, you´re rigth i would be millionaire, but there are things i have to pay, when my bussiness doesnt give me enough to do it, then i have my accounts income to face my expenses.

 

[fayalac]

These week i had a little less than 2,000 and i finished with 2.732, that is what i will start next week with.
Why little less than 2,000?, because i just paid my daugthers college which was a big amount in dollars.

 

[fayalac]

My averge profit per week in dollar therms is from 1,500 to 2,500

 

[meanreversion]

So you started with $2,000 and finished with $2,732?

That's 35% or so, nice return. And you've not had a down week in the last 52 weeks?

 

[fayalac]

No, i havent

 

[meanreversion]

Is there not a risk you suffer material damage to your account for an unexpected event?

 

[Pazienza]

My averge profit per week in dollar therms is from 1,500 to 2,500

On a $5,000 account? Risking 0.3% (around $15 per trade)?

 

[meanreversion]

From a probabilistic standpoint, 52 weeks without one down week is incredibly unlikely, but certainly not impossible. It could be achieved (for example) by systematically selling very low delta 1wk options on a weekly basis (not completely dissimilar from trading without a stop). However, there will come a time when a big move will wipe out the gains, it's an inevitability. I'd recommend "Fooled by Randomness" by Taleb for more on this subject.

 

[meanreversion]

On a $5,000 account? Risking 0.3% (around $15 per trade)?

I think he means $15/pip.

 

[fayalac]

is there not a risk you suffer material damage to your account for an unexpected event?

yes, there´s allways that chance.
I follow the news and i am aware of important daily notifications.
If there will be an imporntant announcement, i try not to deal with that specific currency unless expectations about that announcement are generalized.
So unexpected things are those that can affect me, i am always checking the news, i am allways connected to bloomberg and cnn and in case of a sudden trend change i must be ready to implement plan b

 

[fayalac]

i think he means $15/pip.

no, trade

 

[meanreversion]

Have a read about this chap -

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Victor_Niederhoffer

He somehow managed to get caught not once, but twice... ! Mind you, I think that happened to John Meriwether as well. Their edge was in convincing people that they knew what they were doing, and thus raising money from them.

 

[fayalac]

from a probabilistic standpoint, 52 weeks without one down week is incredibly unlikely, but certainly not impossible. It could be achieved (for example) by systematically selling very low delta 1wk options on a weekly basis (not completely dissimilar from trading without a stop). However, there will come a time when a big move will wipe out the gains, it's an inevitability. I'd recommend "fooled by randomness" by taleb for more on this subject.

from a probabilistic standpoint you´re completelly right, that is why i always withdraw, maybe just to put it in my bank, maybe to pay some expenses but i always withdraw.
I know - probabilistically - at some time my account will suffer a loss, i never know what will happen but when that happens i will know i have won a lot so i can put money back in my account without a problem, i wanst erased after all.

 

[fayalac]

have a read about this chap -

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/victor_niederhoffer

he somehow managed to get caught not once, but twice... ! Mind you, i think that happened to john meriwether as well. Their edge was in convincing people that they knew what they were doing, and thus raising money from them.

just that i am not raising money from anyone, i am just trying to tell you all that it is possible to make a living from tading

 

[Pazienza]

no, trade

Hi Fayalac,

Thanks for confirming that. So you have an account that on average stands at $5,000, you risk 0.3% (around $15) per trade, and your average weekly return is around $1,500 to $2,000.

Is that correct?

 

[fayalac]

Yes, that is correct, just dont forget our job consist on evading risks, we can be succesfull evading risks but at some time they will reach us, so dont multiply, if you can make these amount, withdraw. At some time - probabilistically speaking - you will loose, so allways withdraw.