FTSE 100 January

[Hooya]

right,regardless of where it does go Bonsai just based on this chart is my wave counting better?

oh btw if you didnt see it my 1 is from Mondays low


edit 2: but I have noticed my iv is a tad smaller than ii

 

[Hooya]

ignore that last chart...got it completely wrong. Seems to be
doing 5 legs off the top so ab should be 1 ,2...anyway Im sure
you will se what I mean when you get back:-( back to the drwing
board

 

[bonsai]

morning

yous a chatty group ?

had to go hunting just to find the thread .

I see we have actually gone up 2pts in the last 4 days !!

 

[mully]

Bonsai,
I haven't been trading the FTSE 100 index so far this year!!!. Therefore, no comments worth giving.
However, I have not been idle.
It has been much much more profitable stock trading-RTR, BAY,
rather than trying to trade the FTSE100 with both the Oils and Pharmaceuticals killing any positive movement.

 

[hungrybear]

I haven't been trading it either. Spent the last couple of days developing my trading analysis and techniques. Needs improvement for these times of narrow ranges. Of course we've seen a couple of decent moves in that time!

 

[bonsai]

hi mully
BAY looks red hot. well done.

seems to be running up my single staircase to 320? maybe

(wish I knew why)

 

[Hooya]

If the dow is a B***h then the FTSE is a diva.
the best pattern I could find over the last
couple of days is a wedge but look at
the mess siince yesterday. so not convinced

 

[mully]

Hooya,

I follow the thesis if there is no obvious discernable EW pattern, then look elsewhere. As i have mentioned above, there have been lots of profitable opportunities in individual FTSE stocks despite the performance of the FTSE100. I enclose charts of both the FTSE100/250 to highlight that there is positive underlying action in UK plc.

 

[Hooya]

thanks mully.

yesterday I end up longing the US instead and got 50 at half my UKX stake therefore equivelant on 25 points and
guess who much the FTSE quote moved all of 1 point profit

 

[bonsai]

agree, the dow is different.

but if you cut out all the noise and only make a plot once a week
it looks like this.

seems much more like a bull market !

notice the FTSE diff !: at the beginning of the chart it was
about 1200pts.

 

[Hooya]

sure this divergance has something to do with the FX moves over the last
few weeks???

PS.looks like it wants to test your B level doesnt it

 

[mully]

I find the Dow/FTSE spread observation an irritation. Comparing a $based index with a £based index without adjusting for currency moves is unsound/illogical. Interestingy, if you do a currency adjusted comparison, since August 2003 the US markets have been trading sideways in sterling terms. All the rise in the US equity markets have been eroded by the decline in the US$.

 

[Hooya]

Sorry dont want to irritate you Mully

 

[Hooya]

just for peoples files

 

[bonsai]

fair point mully

if you convert Dow into sterling, it looks like this.

but it isn't how the americans see it !

 

[mully]

Hooya,
Comment not aimed at anyone in particular,
but rather an observation that any casual lurker
may pick up the "discreptancy" between two index
and read far too much into the observation
without actually understanding/realising the comparison.

Sorry, having spent 23 years in the City
and latterly as a global strategist,
I was increasingly urked by over zealous
equity salesmen who thought they had
spotted a fantastic trading opportunity
re apparent large spreads between global equities.
I had to keep telling them that there is a whole army
of arbs who would never allow any discreptancy to last (it would an insult to their professionalism).
I have a chart, care of Indexia that shows the SP500 in £ terms compared to the FTSE100. It shows the FTSE100 has outperformed since August!!!!.
However, I cannot get printkey to take a picture. If anybody knows how I can capture a dos picture I would be glad to post the chart.

Hope that explains my previous comment.

 

[mully]

Sorry, chaps didn't see your most recent posts.
Your charts make the point.
From an US perspective, FTSE100 doesn't look cheap.
So do not expect foreigners to come in and buy
the "lagging" FTSE100.
That is my real point.

 

[Hooya]

I know you werent aiming it at anyone inparticular.
There must be loads of traders trading the FTSE/US
differential thus wouldnt that in it's self keep the
differential in check? As you said yourself they
wouldnt allow any discrepancy to last so thus there
must be a trading opportunity. But looking at it this way,
looking at them in £ as you say the FTSE has outperformed the US, maybe there was a differential trade there i.e long US short UK?

P.S I use a screencaputure program I will put up a link in a mo


Here you go:-
http://www.gadwin.co.uk/printscreen/

 

[mully]

Hooya,
Yes there are trading opportunities,
but they tend to be restricted to the arbs
who are trading penny differences using
large amounts of stock and incurring
no dealing costs other than the spread.
It is not a game for you or me
(dealing costs make it unrealistic for the private trader).

Remember the FTSE100 is dominated by BPAmoco,
Shell, GSK, AZN, Vodafone etc all
multinational stocks with ADRs quoted in the US.
So the reality that there is a discrepancy
between the FTSE100 and the Dow/SP500
is illogical other than on an moment to moment
basis and it will of the order of value
of fractions of index points.

 

[Hooya]

Thanks Mully, your knowledge is obviously very deep. Teach me
something else. Need/want to learn more