I suspect you may need to be more specific, but here goes anyway.
I am not sure how you calculate your own 'Fair Value' which you say is higher than the Futures quotes.
It is a very complex calculation which probably neither you nor I can do satifactorily. Apart from the time value or diminishing interest cost associated with holding futures to expiry, you also have to include the value of dividends you would be entitled to if you held shares which are going ex-div prior to expiry and recalculate relevant market caps after each ex-div event. (usually Wednesdays).
March quarter is traditionally a period when a lot of large companies go ex-div and the holders of futures don't get that dividend. So FTSE Cash is always 'Cum div' and Futures are always 'Ex div'.
So that is a major part of the current difference you experience at the moment.
Different quarters carry different effects of this phenomenon.
However spreadbetters are very very aware that if they do not get it right, we will all make money at their expense.
so, a good rule of thumb is to compare their Cash and Futures quotes.
You might be able to get hold of an independent calculation for Fair Value. e.g the F.T used to carry it in their commentary on the futures activity.
So, if after adjusting for the correct Fair Value, Futures are seen to be trading at a discount, then yes, I think it is significant, and could well result in the Futures leading the market to lower levels.
you really know how to confuse me. here I am talking about the wave from last week and we go back to October and start talking about future wave counts that could take the next 2 years or more.
