FTSE 100 February

[jonnyy40]

At last Tom and me agree on something

 

[Hooya]

no trades so far today but if you shorted at the open
the max you could have got (from what I can see on the cmc
chart) was 8 points and if you longed the low of the day
I think the max you could have got is 6 points. ridiculous
if you ask me

 

[Hooya]

wow...1.8900 isnt far away now is it

 

[jonnyy40]

Greenspan's semi-annual address to Congress today.
6:00PM our time

 

[ralex]

anybody kind enough to explain the 40 points difference between mar and june contracts on Estoxx 50, please?

 

[Hooya]

3 months ?????

 

[mully]

time premium and volatility

 

[ralex]

40 pts is about 1.5% of the index... 3months at 2% interest rate is about half a percent where is the rest?

 

[Hooya]

sorry ralex not clued up enough to know what the 2%IR has
to do with it all?? but looking at it this way the FTSE futs
have just over 1 month left on it's march contract and its still trading at 0.5% discount

 

[Hooya]

the ad has improved sinve this morning somewhat...

 

[bonsai]

interest rate is not the only reason for diff between cash & Futures
or Futures and Futures for that matter.

 

[bonsai]

hooya

yes, but still -ve.
now looks as though they wanted to bounce off the bottom line all the time.
just didnt want to get there too soon.

hence the dawdle.
so now in sync if s&p wants to rally.

 

[Hooya]

the bounce was also the apex of the short timeframe
triangle . Both cash and futures close their gaps from
what I can see.

 

[bonsai]

ah
I drew the short term top line across the tops

so still some time to go.

but these things dont work to the minute.



edit



I was referring to your chart this morning. But not sure what your time interval was.
On my 2 min, the highs cause the top line to be flatter.
thereby extending the apex.

 

[mully]

Thinking out loud

Is that five wavelets I can count from the peak yesterday, implying trend down, but short term 3 wave retracement upwards first?

 

[Hooya]

actually if you draw the FTSE triangle on a 60 min line chart. Guess where the apex is..first thing tomorrow.??? So good size
gap over night???


edit: is that what you mean by across the tops?

 

[bonsai]

mully
looks very possible

 

[Airthrey Capital]

interest rate is not the only reason for diff between cash & Futures
or Futures and Futures for that matter.

Cost of carry (risk free interest rate, amount of dividend payments due) added or subtracted from underlying cash index will give you fair value,

The rest is down to pure supply and demand. If the contract trades above fair value, there are more buyers than sellers. Less than fair value, more sellers than buyers.

Arbitrageurs will normally pick up the discrepancy which will force the price of the contract back to fair value.

(Generally speaking!)

 

[bonsai]

yes, BL
and March is not the same as June either.

 

[Hooya]

gggggggggrr dow up nicely FTSE all nervous...