FTSE 100 February

[FetteredChinos]

Hooya, yes i did hear that. actually, it is a stark lesson about not averaging down on your bets..

the guy who put money on spurs put 10k i think when they were 3-0 up, then when 3-1 he put more on, then 3-2 even more on...

the guy ended up so far down.


the thing was, in terms of risk reward it puts even me in the shade.

£10,000 at 1/25 is £400 is it not??

risking £10,000 for £400 profit? is the guy mad?


FC

 

[FetteredChinos]

could do with breaking through the top-line now. we are pretty much on it now.

 

[Hooya]

the guy has a lot of money. Alot of very rich people do this. they bet big on certainties with money thy can afford to lose. I bet if you bet on all 3-0 scores over the season you would make money but you would need 1000s to make it seem worth while.

But if he put on 10k he should have hedged with £100 at the bookies who offered 250-1 man city


edit : I bet a binary bet would have been good at half time

 

[bonsai]

day trading position ?

just waitng for the market to resolve itself or give me a new signal.

much as I said in my opening thoughts.

I have redrawn my top line to include the spikes and see that we are still trying to push through.

and we are also below my original bottom line
rsi still falling
and macd struggling to stay above zero
however, a/d is holding up.
the inside day yesterday wasn't very helpful (after the hammer)

the dax doesn't look very bullish either.

on the other hand ...........

wake me if we break upwards before 12.

 

[FetteredChinos]

i did actually look into football betting ages ago, and came to pretty much the same conclusion...

i think the ideal return was funnily enough generated by betting on a 1-1 or a 2-2, regardless of the opposition.

then with some cunning money management and bet sizing you could come out massively ahead.

sadly, to make the system work you would have need an unbelievable amount of money to cope with the ever increasing drawdown (the bet sizing was kinda like monte-carlo doubling up if you lose, but not quite)

there are easier ways to make some swag, and that includes working in Maccy Dee's

FC

 

[Hooya]

quick question before you fall asleep; do you have any problems
trading with cmc when abroad?? Ive hear people say they wont let you take out cash etc if they think you are calling from abroad?
This would also cause problems if there was an error on the account and you need to call them to sort it out?

 

[Hooya]

LOL FC...there are so many types of betting now, spreadbet, fixed odds, fixed odds with closing, binary bets. The guys that know there sport will be making alot of money these days.

 

[bonsai]

if you call on a mobile,I'm not sure how they would know where you were ?

on the land line my number is concealed and as far as I know, they cannnot access that either.

But have never tried to withdraw cash while abroad so I am guessing.

I have only dealt from abroad a couple of times but didn't have any problems.
But then at £10 pp I dont suppose they are too concerned ?

The big boys may cause problems because of substantial margin calls ?

 

[Hooya]

I guess a British mobile wont have the international code attached to it but a local one would mmmmmm?

 

[bonsai]

btw, I understand that calls from Dover are routed through the french transmitter first !!!

 

[Hooya]

how silly.


bit of a feeble attempt at a break up...im getting some
bearish divergences with it too

 

[FetteredChinos]

next stop 4410??


if the US data spikes us up to 4438 area, im getting out of this. its starting to smell pretty fishy.

plus, after hours, the US futures have dipped the last few days.

is this the start of a new long-term bearish phase?

who knows.

 

[Hooya]

it will have to be a good spike in the US. 10spx points at a guess to get us up into the the 30s???

 

[FetteredChinos]

aye, 10 SPX spikes arent that unusual.

im sure circa 1.30 we are going to get some heavy moves in the States. the entire week seems to have been focussed on these numbers due today. its been coiling so long into its little ball of fury that it has to go KABBANG!! sometime soon.


FC

 

[bonsai]

anything below about 4411 will be a lower high ?

and

you will need sb's or futures to go with you.

fair value about -22 pts.

 

[Hooya]

lower high looks a good poss at mo from where I am standing but
I am still flat at the mo.

Wouldnt surprise me if the numbers were a bit boring and we only get a 15 Dow point move on data release. Unfortunately the best move will come after UK close imo...its Friday after all

 

[Finirama]

10 SPX would roughly see the DOW at 10,600

 

[bonsai]

you could try drawing a line from 4380 under this move for a fairly low risk trade .

 

[Hooya]

I have one but it's on my RSI.instead...

 

[mully]

Last afternoon sale has not looked too clever in hindsight. But that just goes to prove no system is 100% correct.

However, the fact that there was no follow through in itself tells a story and the fact that the low held at 4378 means that higher lows still intact.

Obviously all eyes on US 1.30pm and the fact that both US and UK seeing inside days suggests no-one has a firm view on US figures.