Sledgehammer
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FC
he doesn't.
it's Peter Gabriel
or am I stuck in the past?
LOL
he doesn't.
it's Peter Gabriel
or am I stuck in the past?
LOL
barjon
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bracke
395, with the first resistance gone (courtesy of the opening gap) thought it might push towards the next around 435 if the that first resistance held as support and we then pushed beyond the early highs. Trailing a stop as we go of course.
395, with the first resistance gone (courtesy of the opening gap) thought it might push towards the next around 435 if the that first resistance held as support and we then pushed beyond the early highs. Trailing a stop as we go of course.
alliance
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Hi Bracke, hoping to sit on this short for a cpl weeks...with a target of sub 4300 again! :cheesy:
I think I may have been a lil hasty in my short..might have a lil way further north to go 1st, which would tie in with Barjon's long!
BArjon:
I knew I spoke too soon..lol
Hooya:
Great to see u back paying us a visit.....hope u pop in a lot more!
peterpr
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Having been net short for over a week now at an average of about 4360, I've begun to scale the position back for fear of a serious further move up.
I've read and tried to digest more TA over the weekend and today than I normally expect to cover in a month. The consensus - and my adopted view can be summarised as follows::
Should the S&P break above about 1103-5 - depending how you draw lines, set s/r etc (and we're pretty close right now), then we are likely looking at a serious move up that will probably test the S&P June highs again before a worthwhile correction suitable for shorting.
I know we're trading the ftse but, watching its action right now pretty well every tick follows the US and there can be little doubt that we won't get a strong further move up if the US goes South. Likewise the opposite. I know that the S&P 200 and 50 DMA's are a bit higher yet but, if it gets above 1105 I for one am covering the entire position and will likely retire to the sidelines for a week or two (or more!)
I've read and tried to digest more TA over the weekend and today than I normally expect to cover in a month. The consensus - and my adopted view can be summarised as follows::
Should the S&P break above about 1103-5 - depending how you draw lines, set s/r etc (and we're pretty close right now), then we are likely looking at a serious move up that will probably test the S&P June highs again before a worthwhile correction suitable for shorting.
I know we're trading the ftse but, watching its action right now pretty well every tick follows the US and there can be little doubt that we won't get a strong further move up if the US goes South. Likewise the opposite. I know that the S&P 200 and 50 DMA's are a bit higher yet but, if it gets above 1105 I for one am covering the entire position and will likely retire to the sidelines for a week or two (or more!)
peterpr said:
Peter, does this mean that you are moving out of Jeremiah Mode ?
I would not be at all surprised of an up move but would expect it to come nearer November in time for the election. If it is manipulated up now can it be kept up until election day. Perhaps that what the oil price is all about.
I show below a chart which helps to illustrate your post.
Regards
bracke
Attachments
peterpr
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bracke said:
Nope - still a Jeremiah!
Can't really see a happy outcome for the US bubbles and deficits right now - but I sincerely hope I am proved wrong. That along with a host of other things confirms me in the view that we are still in the earlyish stages of the bear market that began back in 2000 - the past 15 months or so has been a steady labouring correction getting softer and softer with a great big bearish rounded top, that's all. When did a serious sustained bull market ever begin from the fundamentals that existed in March 2003?, much less exist right now?
That said there will always be good long trading opportunities in any market - It's just that I tend to view them from a pretty pessimistic overview so far as the fundemental direction of the US/UK equities markets are concerned.
peterpr said:
I agree very much with your bearish outlook but the rise in the US markets since March 2000 taught me a lot. Whether one thinks of the rise as a Bull Market or as a Bear Market Rally is immaterial, the upshot was that the market rose and caught out the Bears. So now I avoid opinions and try to trade what I see.
Bearing in mind what I said in my early post, once the November election is over then maybe the markets may demonstrate the true state of affairs. Perhaps we should take bets (academic only) as to how high the dow will go prior to the election.
Regards
bracke
barjon
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peter
Don't I recall from an earlier post that you had a stop in around 400? You will have had sound reasons for entering where you did and an equally sound view of whereabouts you would know if you'd got it (or your timing) wrong. It's never easy carrying a drawdown, but if it's within your originally set tolerance isn't that ok? If you'll excuse the granny and eggs flavour, I'd say that pouring over a lot of new TA and re-examining your position from a different perspective may only serve to cloud your original judgement.
Courage mon brave - you entered with discipline and your exit points properly established? So exit, too, with the discipline of your plan (more granny and eggs - sorry
). 'Course, if you should have gone at 400................
good trading
jon
Don't I recall from an earlier post that you had a stop in around 400? You will have had sound reasons for entering where you did and an equally sound view of whereabouts you would know if you'd got it (or your timing) wrong. It's never easy carrying a drawdown, but if it's within your originally set tolerance isn't that ok? If you'll excuse the granny and eggs flavour, I'd say that pouring over a lot of new TA and re-examining your position from a different perspective may only serve to cloud your original judgement.
Courage mon brave - you entered with discipline and your exit points properly established? So exit, too, with the discipline of your plan (more granny and eggs - sorry
). 'Course, if you should have gone at 400................good trading
jon
FetteredChinos
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bracke said:
9500...
now call me cynical, (cyclical??) but the whole world and his wife seems to be expecting the DOW to run up nicely to the election...
if everyone is sitting on the sidelines waiting to buy as the downtrend is supposedly to reverse, then in the meantime we are gonna go lower and lower...until actually reversing the trend is gonna require too much effort by too many parties..and we capitulate apres le petit dejeuner, sorry, the election.
thinking that shorting the DOW long term, plus long GBP/USD is the way forward...
FetteredChinos said:9500...
now call me cynical, (cyclical??) but the whole world and his wife seems to be expecting the DOW to run up nicely to the election...
if everyone is sitting on the sidelines waiting to buy as the downtrend is supposedly to reverse, then in the meantime we are gonna go lower and lower...until actually reversing the trend is gonna require too much effort by too many parties..and we capitulate apres le petit dejeuner, sorry, the election.
thinking that shorting the DOW long term, plus long GBP/USD is the way forward...
Conspiracy Theories aside ( well almost ) Consider the following
1 Mr Bush wants a second term as President
2 From past experience and present, Mr Bush and his cohorts know that the economy is central to his aims. In the final analysis the US people will put aside Iraq and other matters if the economy is doing well.
3 Is Mr Bush likely to leave the economy to look after itself and hope that it comes right in time for the election, or is he more likely to move it in the direction he wants by one means or another ?
I rest my case
On the other hand FC, it could be that Mr Bush is a very honourable man who will allow the economy to take its course and will not seek to manipulate it to his advantage.
You pays your money and you takes your choice.
Regards
bracke
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FetteredChinos
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bracke said:
ooo you little Conservative!!!!
seriously though, i think the point that must be stressed is that no-one knows where these babies are going. (apart from Peter Gabriel, as we established earlier)
shorter-term trading is really the only way to go. who knows where we will be in 6 months, or what the election effect will be.
the fiasco of last time seemed to spook the markets if i recall...
alliance said:Morning all
Bracke:
I am in the "up b4 the election" camp....tho I think that will start well b4 Nov!
btw, u didnt give us ur "academic" bet?
Hello alliance
A gradual reduction in oil price would help and then some more tit - bits to get things moving about mid September. But not before the ftse closes yesterdays gap !
No I didn't did I
Regards
bracke
alliance
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FC:
In the absence of a journal update (thus far) 2day...did u "paper" sell the dow @ 10,221 then?
Also, am assuming expiry ~ trade not u ~ on ur ftse short y'day....but as u said u were trading the ftse this week, do u currently have a position open?
Bracke:
C'mon with the Nov f'cast...u started it after all
In the absence of a journal update (thus far) 2day...did u "paper" sell the dow @ 10,221 then?
Also, am assuming expiry ~ trade not u
~ on ur ftse short y'day....but as u said u were trading the ftse this week, do u currently have a position open?Bracke:
C'mon with the Nov f'cast...u started it after all
FetteredChinos
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alliance,
sorry for the confusion. no DOW trade as yet, as we havent hit either of those limits. probability of one of them being hit today though..
FTSE short is currently still open from 4408...not going to be closed until either stopped out (4452), target hit (4382) or pattern changes (possibly thursday)...
been a couple of tedious days thus far eh?
hope that clarifies things...
FC
sorry for the confusion. no DOW trade as yet, as we havent hit either of those limits. probability of one of them being hit today though..
FTSE short is currently still open from 4408...not going to be closed until either stopped out (4452), target hit (4382) or pattern changes (possibly thursday)...
been a couple of tedious days thus far eh?
hope that clarifies things...
FC