FTSE 100 August 2004

[peterpr]

Good Afternoon FC

What does it cost you to roll a daily trade over ?

bracke

It can cost a bloody fortune if you're trading CFD's. I've been caught a couple of times with short index trades where a dozen shares go Ex-div. Today is another one. Anyone holding a ftse100 CFD short overnight tonight will be hit for a wad of dividends that dwarf any interest due.

Something to keep a cdareful eye on.

 

[FetteredChinos]

well pointed out Peter. who are the big guys going ex-div tonight then? just out of interest..

 

[bracke]

It can cost a bloody fortune if you're trading CFD's. I've been caught a couple of times with short index trades where a dozen shares go Ex-div. Today is another one. Anyone holding a ftse100 CFD short overnight tonight will be hit for a wad of dividends that dwarf any interest due.

Something to keep a cdareful eye on.

I have not traded CFD's and know little about them. I do know that you receive daily interest on short trades and pay interest on long trades.

When the CFD is traded does it not take into account the ex-div factor at the time of the first trade that one makes ?

Regards

bracke

 

[peterpr]

FC - Just Scotish & Southern Energy + Dixons in the 100 - half a dozen others in the 250

Bracke

Interest charged (@ Base +2%) and dividends received on longs; Interest earned (@base-2% hardly worth bothering) and dividends charged on shorts - all for as long as the position is open.

 

[bracke]

FC - Just Scotish & Southern Energy + Dixons in the 100 - half a dozen others in the 250

Bracke

Interest charged (@ Base +2%) and dividends received on longs; Interest earned (@base-2% hardly worth bothering) and dividends charged on shorts - all for as long as the position is open.

So if you go long and there are few divis received it s not a good idea to hold too long ?

On what value is the interest charged/paid ?

Regards

bracke

 

[bracke]

To-day was th 5th day that ftse has ended higher albeit by 4 points.

In the last 8 trading days it has been up on 7 of them.

The trading range is very tight yesterday high 4421 yesterday low 4402
to-day high 4419 today low 4400

And to add to the interest to-days pivot R1 was 4419 and S1 was 4400. Howzat !

Possibility of a large break when it arrives but which way.

Regards

bracke

 

[FetteredChinos]

i reckon it will break sideways...

 

[bracke]

i reckon it will break sideways...

It will have to be very accurate, there's not enough room to swing a cat, or if I am to be pc I should say, insufficient space to manoeuvre a moggy.

Regards

bracke ( cat lover )

 

[peterpr]

So if you go long and there are few divis received it s not a good idea to hold too long ?
bracke

Correct - neither to hold a short too long - if that makes any sense at all! - unless you watch out for ex-divs carefully. Problem is you can't really allow them to get in the way of the trade.

For a ftse100 £10 contract, closing price x 10 (ie £44,012 tonight x LIBOR+2 / 360 - or thereabouts)

 

[alliance]

Morning all!

Well so much for 4430 proving tough resistance

C'est la vie!

 

[barjon]

mornin'

hang on alliance, it aint finished yet, 4432.5 was the 5/8 high but you've got to allow a bit of leeway . I find it's best to work to an area rather than a specific value. On that basis it's holding so far.

 

[peterpr]

Well I bet that caught everyone napping.

I watched the US into the close last night with my ftse short loss getting larger and larger. Took a huge punt by nearly doubling it at 4442 then covered the lot this morning at 4428. Still one of my biggest losses though.

It's the sidelines for me for a few days. EWP pundits say that the S&P move has forced a re-numbering. It seems we're still on wave 5 of 5 up from 2003 which was previously marked provisionally complete as a 'failed fifth' at the June (ftse March) high - so we could see this upleg testing those highs again (with a few shorting ops in between I guess). Still, what the hell do they know?

There are a host of persuasive indicators saying that we're still on the cusp of a major downleg.

Think I'll just see how we deal with that 200 DMA before doing anything else on indices.

Nice gap for Bracke though.

 

[barjon]

peter

Really sorry that you've got burnt. If it's not too painful to think about, has the experience resulted in learning any new lessons or was it just part of the ebb and flow of your trading?

jon

 

[alliance]

peter:
Empathy! I too watched my short follow the US last nt...did think about doubling but wasnt brave enuff! btw, what does "covered" mean..closed?

Barjon:
I am still in my short, so I am allowing for leeway...but was hoping that allowing for ex-divis 2day, it would be lower than it is @ mo. Still, I live in hope

 

[peterpr]

peter

Really sorry that you've got burnt. If it's not too painful to think about, has the experience resulted in learning any new lessons or was it just part of the ebb and flow of your trading?

jon

Thanks Jon

Painful? yes. But 'no pain no gain' as they say. Still conducting the most-mortem. Certainly intend see if anything needs changing but, as you say it was really just part of the ebb and flow.

Quite a BIG ebb though. Maybe that's the lesson. Now have to resist the temptation to claw it back too quickly!

Alliance
Covered =closed

 

[bracke]

Good Afternoon All

peterpr

Thank you for the info re CFD. Comiserations on you loss, I know what it's like.

I had to go out this morning and returned home to find that I had been stopped out, which was no surprise.

Another gap this morning which I have not taken. I am watching to see what the US does, the fall in oil price may push the US higher which in turn may take ftse to 4500.

The chart below shows the long bars to get ftse through the resistance at 4430 with high volume but it does not appear to be a conclusive move ,is it waiting for the US.

Regards

bracke

 

[barjon]

mornin' all

well, well, my swing chart's just signalled a change of intermediate trend to up after yesterday's action. Means I'll be favouring longs and looking for the first reaction with interest.

Off for some golf later on - looking a bit wet ugh.

 

[barjon]

golf's off - we're all wimps

By another route, if you regard yesterday's break of resistance as completing a double bottom it gives a minimum target of 4583. Could all turn out to be a false break tho' - as usual it'll either go up or down (or maybe even sideways)

 

[peterpr]

mornin' all

well, well, my swing chart's just signalled a change of intermediate trend to up after yesterday's action.

Well Well indeed - Where's the volume though? - entire rally on less than average vol so far. Certainly no bull stampede yet.

Looks like it will be the late June followed by the April highs that will provide the real test for them - and Jeremiah says they'll get slaughtered. Just like I did on Wednesday only worse!

Somebody remind me to eat my hat when it hits 4630.

 

[barjon]

peter

Can't shake you out of your bear mode then!!! Yes, the volumes been pretty lowish of late but it did perk up at the support level. What do they say about a rise on low volume - it's supposed to be bearish isn't it?

jon