peterpr
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barjon said:
Nope. Still can't find much non-establishment commentary that favours the bulls. The mainstream press trot out what the big brokerages and government statisticians feed them. That together with government vested interests and elections looming here as well as in the US explain a lot ("It's the economy stupid!" - remember that one?). But the clouds are gathering - especially in the US - and if/when the US economy catches a cold - we all know what happens next.
So Yes - that's my 'stand-back and get some perspective' medium term view and has been for quite a while. Doesn't rule out major moves up though. As usual its all a question of timing.
BTW - tried to post a chart with that last post but it didn't appear - wmf file. Any suggestions why not anyone?
peterpr
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Another thing about the rally
Both the Dow and the SPX have yet to test their 200 dma's or the tops of their respective declining channels. If they turn South at either, I doubt we'll see a UK/US divergence. Unlike the ftse, the corresponding bottoms of both those indices are declining. Both index channels from the March highs remain intact. My best guess is probably a bit more upside there - say to SPX 1120 and Dow 10400 ish before a major downturn.
Anyway I'm still enjoying the luxury of sitting back and watching with no open positions ( on the indices anyway) to get precious about.
Both the Dow and the SPX have yet to test their 200 dma's or the tops of their respective declining channels. If they turn South at either, I doubt we'll see a UK/US divergence. Unlike the ftse, the corresponding bottoms of both those indices are declining. Both index channels from the March highs remain intact. My best guess is probably a bit more upside there - say to SPX 1120 and Dow 10400 ish before a major downturn.
Anyway I'm still enjoying the luxury of sitting back and watching with no open positions ( on the indices anyway) to get precious about.
barjon
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..........and granny says, trade what you see not what you think 
so far as ftse is concerned (led by US or not) it'll be breaking through that solid support you highlighted that might result in a major move down. The first clue to that happening might be a failure to push up through the resistance line which would leave the possibility that the descending triangle is still forming - my post 212 page 15. See, I can be bearish too
so far as ftse is concerned (led by US or not) it'll be breaking through that solid support you highlighted that might result in a major move down. The first clue to that happening might be a failure to push up through the resistance line which would leave the possibility that the descending triangle is still forming - my post 212 page 15. See, I can be bearish too
tradesmart
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As Barjon say’s, FTSE longs are definitely favoured by the current daily chart setup, and the clear ‘W’ bottom target indicates a test of 4600 could be in the sights again…….the shorter term charts show a kind of island reversal to add to the bullish tone…….
Anyway, RSI will unfailingly show us where the top is - It’s a long until divergence sets in imho, and at the moment it’s pointing north without hesitation….(not to say there won’t be shortable pullbacks on the way up…will we hit another expensive oilslick…….?!)
And also now it’s touching the former uptrend channel lower support line from the underside which could create resistance…..
Anyway, RSI will unfailingly show us where the top is - It’s a long until divergence sets in imho, and at the moment it’s pointing north without hesitation….(not to say there won’t be shortable pullbacks on the way up…will we hit another expensive oilslick…….?!)
And also now it’s touching the former uptrend channel lower support line from the underside which could create resistance…..
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tradesmart
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Pepe – I use SierraCharts with a MyTrack data feed.
RSI settings are as on the chart (15,3,70,30,1) 100ema is shown and you can select the chart style/color in the comprehensive SC chart settings.
Regards
RSI settings are as on the chart (15,3,70,30,1) 100ema is shown and you can select the chart style/color in the comprehensive SC chart settings.
Regards
If anyone takes TASC magazine there is an interesting article in the Aug issue concerning "Advancing Issues Momentum" (AIM). This is the Advance Issues Momentum indicator, and the premiss is that you choose the stocks that are of interest, so that you don't get all the extraneous noise that the broad market advancing issues provide - you are just measuring those that are of interest.
In this case I have used the largest 20 stocks in the ftse by Mkt cap. To avoid noisy data, the advances are smoothed over a period of 20 days so that a definition of an advance is where price rises above the level of 20 days ago - this is the default period in the system - it may be worthwhile experimenting with other periods. Whilst there is no reason why all 100 stocks could not be included in the indicator, the processing is so slow that my pc becomes unusable if all 100 are used - even 20 stocks seems to slow it down tremendously - probably a feature of the language used in writing the indicator within AIQ.
Looking at the last 12 months, it has been a pretty good indicator when it moves away from extremes i.e. down from above 15 or up from below 5. But not perfect by any means - some of the sell signals last year only showed a consolidation in the advance - but it would seem to indicate that any upside from here could be hard earned.
In this case I have used the largest 20 stocks in the ftse by Mkt cap. To avoid noisy data, the advances are smoothed over a period of 20 days so that a definition of an advance is where price rises above the level of 20 days ago - this is the default period in the system - it may be worthwhile experimenting with other periods. Whilst there is no reason why all 100 stocks could not be included in the indicator, the processing is so slow that my pc becomes unusable if all 100 are used - even 20 stocks seems to slow it down tremendously - probably a feature of the language used in writing the indicator within AIQ.
Looking at the last 12 months, it has been a pretty good indicator when it moves away from extremes i.e. down from above 15 or up from below 5. But not perfect by any means - some of the sell signals last year only showed a consolidation in the advance - but it would seem to indicate that any upside from here could be hard earned.
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Hi
Has anyone used this system since this post, and if so, what have your experiences been?
Regards
Jeff
Has anyone used this system since this post, and if so, what have your experiences been?
Regards
Jeff
cu20052003
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Hi to in this Thread!
How about taking a look at my thread 'Has the FTSE reached its Top yet?' - use of Fundamentals and TA suggested that 5,650 is the projected Top. Well, not beyond that though.
The high in a candle-stick chart for today of course would be 5,640++ but the close being 5,620++ - it suggests a slow retracement but that would dwindle over time. In terms of FA, the retrace is due to Labour trying to give some tax-earning opportunity away and trying to cover that hole using another LOBANG ( tax ) and that in the short term provide a short lift for banking sector.
Oil and some other commodities should retrace - do look out for it as you can go long. In my opinion, if you are into Forex as well - dump GBP as it will lose value to the USD in the long term! Please tread carefully as Forex and Commodities Futures Contract can ruin a trader!
S K
How about taking a look at my thread 'Has the FTSE reached its Top yet?' - use of Fundamentals and TA suggested that 5,650 is the projected Top. Well, not beyond that though.
The high in a candle-stick chart for today of course would be 5,640++ but the close being 5,620++ - it suggests a slow retracement but that would dwindle over time. In terms of FA, the retrace is due to Labour trying to give some tax-earning opportunity away and trying to cover that hole using another LOBANG ( tax ) and that in the short term provide a short lift for banking sector.
Oil and some other commodities should retrace - do look out for it as you can go long. In my opinion, if you are into Forex as well - dump GBP as it will lose value to the USD in the long term! Please tread carefully as Forex and Commodities Futures Contract can ruin a trader!
S K