Forex618 Daily Currency report

[forex618]

Forex618.net Daily Currency report for Monday December 11 2006

This is only a guide. Please refer to our specific entry signals for exact entries and stops.

This Week's Economic Calendar
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised From
Dec 11 10:00 Wholesale Inventories Oct 0.7% 0.6% 0.8%
Dec 12 08:30 Trade Balance Oct -$62.0B -$63.5B -$64.3B
Dec 12 14:00 Treasury Budget Nov -$73.0B -$74.0B -$83.1B
Dec 12 14:15 FOMC policy statement
Dec 13 08:30 Retail Sales Nov 0.4% 0.2% -0.4%
Dec 13 08:30 Retail Sales ex-auto Nov 0.5% 0.3% -0.4%
Dec 13 10:00 Business Inventories Oct 0.5% 0.5% 0.4%
Dec 13 10:30 Crude Inventories 12/08 NA NA -1049K
Dec 14 08:30 Export Prices ex-ag. Nov NA NA -0.5%
Dec 14 08:30 Import Prices ex-oil Nov NA NA -0.6%
Dec 14 08:30 Initial Claims 12/09 320K NA 324K
Dec 15 08:30 CPI Nov 0.2% 0.2% -0.5%
Dec 15 08:30 Core CPI Nov 0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Dec 15 08:30 NY Empire State Index Dec 12.0 20.0 26.7
Dec 15 09:00 Net Foreign Purchases Oct NA NA $65.1B
Dec 15 09:15 Capacity Utilization Nov 82.1% 82.2% 82.2%
Dec 15 09:15 Industrial Production Nov 0.1% 0.2% 0.2%

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EUR/USD

Weekly Trend direction: Bullish

Weekly trend reversal level: 1.3000

Support levels: 1.3140, 1.3065, 1.3000

Strategy: Whilst above the weekly trend reversal level, buy dips to support levels after an entry signal.

Medium term: The euro has broken above the large flag formation which has dominated the technical picture in 2006. Now, whilst above 1.2900 (1.2800 max), the euro remains in an uptrend which is heading back towards 1.3600, the multi-year high, and possibly higher still, towards 1.4100.

Today: Wild price action on Friday saw the Euro whipsaw around the 1.3300 level in dramatic fashion, probably doing some damage to both sides of the market, forming a bearish reversal day candle, and clearing out weaker hands. We have since dropped to 1.3150, which is 38% of the move higher from 1.2760 and 25% of the move higher from 1.2485. This means we shall probably try to hold above here initially, but we shall have to allow for another leg down to 1.3050 and possibly even the important 1.3000 level. For today, perhaps try small longs around 1.3150 with tight stops below, but be prepared to re-try at the lower support levels down to 1.3000.

EUR/USD Hourly chart:



EUR/USD Weekly chart:

 

[forex618]

Forex618.net Daily Currency report for Wednesday December 13 2006

This is only a guide. Please refer to our specific entry signals for exact entries and stops.

This Week's Economic Calendar
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised From
Dec 11 10:00 Wholesale Inventories Oct 0.7% 0.6% 0.8%
Dec 12 08:30 Trade Balance Oct -$62.0B -$63.5B -$64.3B
Dec 12 14:00 Treasury Budget Nov -$73.0B -$74.0B -$83.1B
Dec 12 14:15 FOMC policy statement
Dec 13 08:30 Retail Sales Nov 0.4% 0.2% -0.4%
Dec 13 08:30 Retail Sales ex-auto Nov 0.5% 0.3% -0.4%
Dec 13 10:00 Business Inventories Oct 0.5% 0.5% 0.4%
Dec 13 10:30 Crude Inventories 12/08 NA NA -1049K
Dec 14 08:30 Export Prices ex-ag. Nov NA NA -0.5%
Dec 14 08:30 Import Prices ex-oil Nov NA NA -0.6%
Dec 14 08:30 Initial Claims 12/09 320K NA 324K
Dec 15 08:30 CPI Nov 0.2% 0.2% -0.5%
Dec 15 08:30 Core CPI Nov 0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Dec 15 08:30 NY Empire State Index Dec 12.0 20.0 26.7
Dec 15 09:00 Net Foreign Purchases Oct NA NA $65.1B
Dec 15 09:15 Capacity Utilization Nov 82.1% 82.2% 82.2%
Dec 15 09:15 Industrial Production Nov 0.1% 0.2% 0.2%

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EUR/USD

Weekly Trend direction: Bullish

Weekly trend reversal level: 1.3000

Support levels: 1.3140, 1.3065, 1.3000

Strategy: Whilst above the weekly trend reversal level, buy dips to support levels after an entry signal.

Medium term: The euro has broken above the large flag formation which has dominated the technical picture in 2006. Now, whilst above 1.2900 (1.2800 max), the euro remains in an uptrend which is heading back towards 1.3600, the multi-year high, and possibly higher still, towards 1.4100.

Today: Very slightly higher but no real change. We still have an "outside bearish reversal day" from Friday looming over us, so caution is still required and we shall continue to allow for another leg down to 1.3050 and possibly even the important 1.3000 level. For today, perhaps try small shorts around 1.3280/1.3320 with tight stops, with a target of around 1.3120 or even 1.3000. We will only enter the market short on very clear signs of topping with tight stops, as we remain in a strong cyclical uptrend.

EUR/USD Hourly chart:



EUR/USD Weekly chart:




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GBP/USD

Weekly Trend direction: Bullish

Weekly trend reversal level: 1.9300

Support levels: 1.9220, 1.9340, 1.9460

Strategy: Whilst above the weekly trend reversal level, buy dips to support levels after an entry signal.

Medium term: The trend remains bullish whilst above roughly 1.9200, but it is becoming mature and our medium term target is possibly 2.0000. As we approach the BIG figure at 2.0000 and indicators become extremely overbought, great caution is required, as swings both ways may be huge, random and very fast.

Today: The pound has recovered 61.8% of the decline last week and is looking slightly "toppish" at this level. We suggest caution and the strategy for cable is to wait for extreme moves to fizzle out before trading from the highs or lows. Today, there is an equal chance of a move in either direction and probabilities are not good. Perhaps try tiny shorts near 1.9700, stops above 1.9730, or stay out and focus on other pairs.

GBP/USD Hourly chart:

 

[forex618]

Forex618.net Daily Currency report for Thursday December 14 2006

This is only a guide. Please refer to our specific entry signals for exact entries and stops.

This Week's Economic Calendar
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised From
Dec 11 10:00 Wholesale Inventories Oct 0.7% 0.6% 0.8%
Dec 12 08:30 Trade Balance Oct -$62.0B -$63.5B -$64.3B
Dec 12 14:00 Treasury Budget Nov -$73.0B -$74.0B -$83.1B
Dec 12 14:15 FOMC policy statement
Dec 13 08:30 Retail Sales Nov 0.4% 0.2% -0.4%
Dec 13 08:30 Retail Sales ex-auto Nov 0.5% 0.3% -0.4%
Dec 13 10:00 Business Inventories Oct 0.5% 0.5% 0.4%
Dec 13 10:30 Crude Inventories 12/08 NA NA -1049K
Dec 14 08:30 Export Prices ex-ag. Nov NA NA -0.5%
Dec 14 08:30 Import Prices ex-oil Nov NA NA -0.6%
Dec 14 08:30 Initial Claims 12/09 320K NA 324K
Dec 15 08:30 CPI Nov 0.2% 0.2% -0.5%
Dec 15 08:30 Core CPI Nov 0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Dec 15 08:30 NY Empire State Index Dec 12.0 20.0 26.7
Dec 15 09:00 Net Foreign Purchases Oct NA NA $65.1B
Dec 15 09:15 Capacity Utilization Nov 82.1% 82.2% 82.2%
Dec 15 09:15 Industrial Production Nov 0.1% 0.2% 0.2%

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EUR/USD

Weekly Trend direction: Bullish

Weekly trend reversal level: 1.3000

Support levels: 1.3140, 1.3065, 1.3000

Strategy: Whilst above the weekly trend reversal level, buy dips to support levels after an entry signal.

Medium term: The euro has broken above the large flag formation which has dominated the technical picture in 2006. Now, whilst above 1.2900 (1.2800 max), the euro remains in an uptrend which is heading back towards 1.3600, the multi-year high, and possibly higher still, towards 1.4100.

Today: Back down to 1.3200 as we expected, with the effects of Friday's reversal day still lingering on. Good support comes in here and around 1.3150 and a break below there, whilst less likely, could see the euro move as low as 1.3050. As we have not bounced convincingly from 1.3200 yet, we may still get a chance to buy at 1.3150 today, with tight stops below Monday's low, and possibly another bash at buying near 1.3050. Target 1.3300 and then eventually a new high at 1.3400 and higher.

EUR/USD Hourly chart:



EUR/USD Weekly chart:

 

[forex618]

Forex618.net Daily Currency report for Friday December 15 2006

This is only a guide. Please refer to our specific entry signals for exact entries and stops.

This Week's Economic Calendar
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised From
Dec 11 10:00 Wholesale Inventories Oct 0.7% 0.6% 0.8%
Dec 12 08:30 Trade Balance Oct -$62.0B -$63.5B -$64.3B
Dec 12 14:00 Treasury Budget Nov -$73.0B -$74.0B -$83.1B
Dec 12 14:15 FOMC policy statement
Dec 13 08:30 Retail Sales Nov 0.4% 0.2% -0.4%
Dec 13 08:30 Retail Sales ex-auto Nov 0.5% 0.3% -0.4%
Dec 13 10:00 Business Inventories Oct 0.5% 0.5% 0.4%
Dec 13 10:30 Crude Inventories 12/08 NA NA -1049K
Dec 14 08:30 Export Prices ex-ag. Nov NA NA -0.5%
Dec 14 08:30 Import Prices ex-oil Nov NA NA -0.6%
Dec 14 08:30 Initial Claims 12/09 320K NA 324K
Dec 15 08:30 CPI Nov 0.2% 0.2% -0.5%
Dec 15 08:30 Core CPI Nov 0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Dec 15 08:30 NY Empire State Index Dec 12.0 20.0 26.7
Dec 15 09:00 Net Foreign Purchases Oct NA NA $65.1B
Dec 15 09:15 Capacity Utilization Nov 82.1% 82.2% 82.2%
Dec 15 09:15 Industrial Production Nov 0.1% 0.2% 0.2%

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EUR/USD

Weekly Trend direction: Bullish

Weekly trend reversal level: 1.3000

Support levels: 1.3140, 1.3065, 1.3000

Strategy: Whilst above the weekly trend reversal level, buy dips to support levels after an entry signal.

Medium term: The euro has broken above the large flag formation which has dominated the technical picture in 2006. Now, whilst above 1.2900 (1.2800 max), the euro remains in an uptrend which is heading back towards 1.3600, the multi-year high, and possibly higher still, towards 1.4100.

Today: The euro has dropped 50 points to 1.3150 and is trying to base here. Allow for some more work around this level today, with a move higher targeting 1.3300 and then eventually a new high at 1.3400. Below 1.3130, whilst not our preferred view, means we shall have to expect dips to trend line support around 1.3050 today

EUR/USD Hourly chart:



EUR/USD Weekly chart:

 

[forex618]

Forex618.net Daily Currency report for Monday December 18 2006

This is only a guide. Please refer to our specific entry signals for exact entries and stops.

This Week's Economic Calendar
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised From
Dec 18 08:30 Current Account Q3 -$225.0B -$225.0B -$218.4
Dec 19 08:30 Housing Starts Nov 1550K 1550K 1486K
Dec 19 08:30 Building Permits Nov 1540K 1535K 1553K
Dec 19 08:30 PPI Nov 1.2% 0.5% -1.6%
Dec 19 08:30 Core PPI Nov 0.2% 0.2% -0.9%
Dec 20 10:30 Crude Inventories 12/15 NA NA -4295K
Dec 21 08:30 Chain Deflator-Final Q3 1.8% 1.8% 1.8%
Dec 21 08:30 GDP-Final Q3 2.2% 2.2% 2.2%
Dec 21 08:30 Initial Claims 12/16 315K NA 304K
Dec 21 10:00 Leading Indicators Nov 0.0% 0.0% 0.2%
Dec 21 12:00 Philadelphia Fed Dec 3.0 6.0 5.1
Dec 22 08:30 Durable Orders Nov 1.0% 1.2% -8.2%
Dec 22 08:30 Personal Income Nov 0.4% 0.4% 0.4%
Dec 22 08:30 Personal Spending Nov 0.7% 0.3% 0.2%
Dec 22 10:00 Mich Sentiment-Rev. Dec 90.2 90.7 90.2

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EUR/USD

Weekly Trend direction: Bearish

Weekly trend reversal level: 1.3300

Resistance levels: 1.3180, 1.3200, 1.3280

Strategy: Whilst below the weekly trend reversal level, sell rallies to resistance after an entry signal.

Medium term: The euro has broken above the large flag formation which has dominated the technical picture in 2006. Now, whilst above 1.2900 (1.2800 max), the euro remains in an uptrend which is heading back towards 1.3600, the multi-year high, and possibly higher still, towards 1.4100.

Today: It's a tricky one this week, as the Euro's momentum has turned bearish with daily and weekly candles heading south. However, we are at very good support between 1.2950 and 1.3050, being this year's breakout level and the medium term trend line support area, and the shorter term studies have already become somewhat oversold. As we get closer to the year end, levels will probably not hold very well, and volatile range trading may begin to dominate. For today, try counter trend trades near 1.3050 (perhaps even dipping lower to 1.2950/1.3000) or sell rallies to the resistance levels above.

EUR/USD Hourly chart:



EUR/USD Weekly chart:

 

[forex618]

Forex618.net Daily Currency report for Wednesday December 20 2006

This is only a guide. Please refer to our specific entry signals for exact entries and stops.


This Week's Economic Calendar
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised From
Dec 18 08:30 Current Account Q3 -$225.0B -$225.0B -$218.4
Dec 19 08:30 Housing Starts Nov 1550K 1550K 1486K
Dec 19 08:30 Building Permits Nov 1540K 1535K 1553K
Dec 19 08:30 PPI Nov 1.2% 0.5% -1.6%
Dec 19 08:30 Core PPI Nov 0.2% 0.2% -0.9%
Dec 20 10:30 Crude Inventories 12/15 NA NA -4295K
Dec 21 08:30 Chain Deflator-Final Q3 1.8% 1.8% 1.8%
Dec 21 08:30 GDP-Final Q3 2.2% 2.2% 2.2%
Dec 21 08:30 Initial Claims 12/16 315K NA 304K
Dec 21 10:00 Leading Indicators Nov 0.0% 0.0% 0.2%
Dec 21 12:00 Philadelphia Fed Dec 3.0 6.0 5.1
Dec 22 08:30 Durable Orders Nov 1.0% 1.2% -8.2%
Dec 22 08:30 Personal Income Nov 0.4% 0.4% 0.4%
Dec 22 08:30 Personal Spending Nov 0.7% 0.3% 0.2%
Dec 22 10:00 Mich Sentiment-Rev. Dec 90.2 90.7 90.2

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EUR/USD

Weekly Trend direction: Bearish

Weekly trend reversal level: 1.3300

Resistance levels: 1.3180, 1.3200, 1.3280

Strategy: Whilst below the weekly trend reversal level, sell rallies to resistance after an entry signal.

Medium term: The euro has broken above the large flag formation which has dominated the technical picture in 2006. Now, whilst above 1.2900 (1.2800 max), the euro remains in an uptrend which is heading back towards 1.3600, the multi-year high, and possibly higher still, towards 1.4100.

Today: Bouncing firmly from 1.3055 and erasing most of the losses of the past week, the euro is once again heading upwards. Allow for some consolidation below 1.3300 and then another leg upwards towards 1.3400. As there are only 3 trading days left before markets close for the holidays, we may find that it will be difficult to move much higher than 1.3400/1.3450 this week, but eventually we should approach the all time highs at 1.3670. For today, do as little as possible, or try tiny shorts near 1.3240/80, stops above 1.3300.

EUR/USD Hourly chart:



EUR/USD Weekly chart:




--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

GBP/USD

Weekly Trend direction: Bearish

Weekly trend reversal level: 1.9735

Support levels: 1.9600, 1.9640, 1.9720

Strategy: Whilst below the weekly trend reversal level, sell rallies to resistance levels after an entry signal.

Medium term: The trend remains bullish whilst above roughly 1.9200, but it is becoming mature and our medium term target is possibly 2.0000. As we approach the BIG figure at 2.0000 and indicators become extremely overbought, great caution is required, as swings both ways may be huge, random and very fast.

Today: The pound has rushed higher, erasing all of last week's losses in one day and now testing the weekly range top at 1.9730. As short term conditions are overbought, we expect that some correction from here may be needed, probably no lower than 1.9600 - 1.9580, as we set up for a very strong weekly close and a bullish end to the year. Today, try small shorts near 1.9730 with tight stops, possibly re-buying on a dip to 1.9600.

GBP/USD Hourly chart:



GBP/USD Weekly chart:

 

[forex618]

Forex618.net Daily Currency report for Tuesday January 02 2007

This is only a guide. Please refer to our specific entry signals for exact entries and stops.

EUR/USD

Weekly Trend direction:*Bullish

Weekly trend reversal level: 1.3050

Support levels: *1.3050, 1.3080, 1.3150

Strategy: Whilst above the weekly trend reversal level, buy dips to support after an entry signal.
Medium term: The euro has broken above the large flag formation which has dominated the technical picture in 2006. Now, whilst above 1.2900 (1.2800 max), the euro remains in an uptrend which is heading back towards 1.3600, the multi-year high, and possibly higher still, towards 1.4100.

Today: Welcome to 2007! Markets are likely to remain thin this whole week, as the financial world only gets back into full swing on Monday. However, there is a whole raft of economic data coming out this week and the currencies are likely to try and set an early direction for the year as soon as they can. Note that our medium term outlook hasn't changed, so we shall be on the lookout for opportunities to buy Euro's on dips whilst above 1.3000, (bearing in mind the above, and being somewhat cautious) Support levels are listed above.

EUR/USD Hourly chart:

EUR/USD Weekly chart:

 

[forex618]

Forex618.net Daily Currency report for Wednesday January 03 2007

This is only a guide. Please refer to our specific entry signals for exact entries and stops.

This Week's Economic Calendar
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised From
Jan 03 10:00 Construction Spending Nov -0.7% -0.6% -1.0%
Jan 03 10:00 ISM Index Dec 51.0 50.0 49.5
Jan 03 14:00 FOMC Minutes Dec 12
Jan 03 17:00 Auto Sales Dec 5.3M 5.2M 5.1M
Jan 03 17:00 Truck Sales Dec 7.7M 7.3M 7.2M
Jan 04 08:30 Initial Claims 12/30 320K 318K 317K
Jan 04 10:00 Factory Orders Nov 1.5% 1.4% -4.7%
Jan 04 10:00 ISM Services Dec 58.0 57.0 58.9
Jan 05 08:30 Nonfarm Payrolls Dec 115K 110K 132K
Jan 05 08:30 Unemployment Rate Dec 4.5% 4.5% 4.5%
Jan 05 08:30 Hourly Earnings Dec 0.4% 0.3% 0.2%
Jan 05 08:30 Average Workweek Dec 33.9 33.9 33.9
Jan 08 15:00 Consumer Credit Nov NA $4.0B -$1.2B
Jan 10 08:30 Trade Balance Nov NA -$59.0B -$58.9B
Jan 10 10:00 Wholesale Inventories Nov NA 0.5% 0.8%
Jan 10 10:30 Crude Inventories 01/05 NA NA -8132K
Jan 11 08:30 Initial Claims 01/05 NA NA NA
Jan 11 14:00 Treasury Budget Dec NA $24.0B $11.2B
Jan 12 08:30 Export Prices ex-ag. Dec NA NA 0.1%
Jan 12 08:30 Import Prices ex-oil Dec NA NA 0.7%
Jan 12 08:30 Retail Sales Dec NA 0.6% 1.0%
Jan 12 08:30 Retail Sales ex-auto Dec NA 0.6% 1.1%
Jan 12 10:00 Business Inventories Nov

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EUR/USD

Weekly Trend direction: Bullish

Weekly trend reversal level: 1.3050

Support levels: 1.3050, 1.3080, 1.3150

Strategy: Whilst above the weekly trend reversal level, buy dips to support after an entry signal.

Medium term: The euro has broken above the large flag formation which has dominated the technical picture in 2006. Now, whilst above 1.2900 (1.2800 max), the euro remains in an uptrend which is heading back towards 1.3600, the multi-year high, and possibly higher still, towards 1.4100.

Today: Very little to add since yesterday as we hover just below 1.3300, the 78.6% retracement level, with the hourly charts over-extended and slightly toppish. Markets are likely to remain thin this whole week, as the financial world only gets back into full swing on Monday. However, there is a whole raft of economic data coming out this week and the currencies are likely to try and set an early direction for the year as soon as they can. Note that our medium term outlook hasn't changed, so we shall be on the lookout for opportunities to buy Euro's on dips whilst above 1.3000, (bearing in mind the above, and being somewhat cautious) Support levels are listed above. Today, look for opportunities to sell euros on signs of reversal around 1.3290, or wait to buy dips later today/tomorrow.

EUR/USD Hourly chart:



EUR/USD Weekly chart:

 

[forex618]

Forex618.net Daily Currency report for Thursday January 04 2007

This is only a guide. Please refer to our specific entry signals for exact entries and stops.

This Week's Economic Calendar
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised From
Jan 03 10:00 Construction Spending Nov -0.7% -0.6% -1.0%
Jan 03 10:00 ISM Index Dec 51.0 50.0 49.5
Jan 03 14:00 FOMC Minutes Dec 12
Jan 03 17:00 Auto Sales Dec 5.3M 5.2M 5.1M
Jan 03 17:00 Truck Sales Dec 7.7M 7.3M 7.2M
Jan 04 08:30 Initial Claims 12/30 320K 318K 317K
Jan 04 10:00 Factory Orders Nov 1.5% 1.4% -4.7%
Jan 04 10:00 ISM Services Dec 58.0 57.0 58.9
Jan 05 08:30 Nonfarm Payrolls Dec 115K 110K 132K
Jan 05 08:30 Unemployment Rate Dec 4.5% 4.5% 4.5%
Jan 05 08:30 Hourly Earnings Dec 0.4% 0.3% 0.2%
Jan 05 08:30 Average Workweek Dec 33.9 33.9 33.9
Jan 08 15:00 Consumer Credit Nov NA $4.0B -$1.2B
Jan 10 08:30 Trade Balance Nov NA -$59.0B -$58.9B
Jan 10 10:00 Wholesale Inventories Nov NA 0.5% 0.8%
Jan 10 10:30 Crude Inventories 01/05 NA NA -8132K
Jan 11 08:30 Initial Claims 01/05 NA NA NA
Jan 11 14:00 Treasury Budget Dec NA $24.0B $11.2B
Jan 12 08:30 Export Prices ex-ag. Dec NA NA 0.1%
Jan 12 08:30 Import Prices ex-oil Dec NA NA 0.7%
Jan 12 08:30 Retail Sales Dec NA 0.6% 1.0%
Jan 12 08:30 Retail Sales ex-auto Dec NA 0.6% 1.1%
Jan 12 10:00 Business Inventories Nov

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EUR/USD

Weekly Trend direction: Bullish

Weekly trend reversal level: 1.3050

Support levels: 1.3050, 1.3080, 1.3150

Strategy: Whilst above the weekly trend reversal level, buy dips to support after an entry signal.

Medium term: The euro has broken above the large flag formation which has dominated the technical picture in 2006. Now, whilst above 1.2900 (1.2800 max), the euro remains in an uptrend which is heading back towards 1.3600, the multi-year high, and possibly higher still, towards 1.4100.

Today: Dropping sharply from 1.3300 as the dollar rallied against all the majors, the euro quite possibly has further South to travel before finding its feet again. We will allow for another leg lower today towards 1.3000. Remember that the NFP jobs report comes out tomorrow, so there is no rush to take a new position this week. All and any dips remain opportunities to buy euros whilst above 1.3000 (1.2900 MAX)

EUR/USD Hourly chart:



EUR/USD Weekly chart:

 

[forex618]

Forex618.net Daily Currency report for Monday January 08 2007

This is only a guide. Please refer to our specific entry signals for exact entries and stops.

This Week's Economic Calendar
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised From
Jan 08 15:00 Consumer Credit Nov NA $4.0B -$1.2B
Jan 10 08:30 Trade Balance Nov NA -$59.0B -$58.9B
Jan 10 10:00 Wholesale Inventories Nov NA 0.5% 0.8%
Jan 10 10:30 Crude Inventories 01/05 NA NA -8132K
Jan 11 08:30 Initial Claims 01/05 NA NA NA
Jan 11 14:00 Treasury Budget Dec NA $24.0B $11.2B
Jan 12 08:30 Export Prices ex-ag. Dec NA NA 0.1%
Jan 12 08:30 Import Prices ex-oil Dec NA NA 0.7%
Jan 12 08:30 Retail Sales Dec NA 0.6% 1.0%
Jan 12 08:30 Retail Sales ex-auto Dec NA 0.6% 1.1%
Jan 12 10:00 Business Inventories Nov

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EUR/USD

Weekly Trend direction: Bearish

Weekly trend reversal level: 1.3300

Resistance levels: 1.3100, 1.3150, 1.3180, 1.3230

Strategy: Whilst below the weekly trend reversal level, sell rallies to resistance after an entry signal.

Medium term: The euro has broken above the large flag formation which has dominated the technical picture in 2006. Now, whilst above 1.2900 (1.2800 max), the euro remains in an uptrend which is heading back towards 1.3600, the multi-year high, and possibly higher still, towards 1.4100.

Today: Dropping to key support near 1.3000, momentum has clearly turned bearish and the weekly chart has formed a largish "bearish engulfing candle". However, shorter term charts are oversold and 1.3000 is a key technical level, being a "big figure" and also the previous breakout level when the rally to 1.3370 began last year. Traders should try small longs at 1.3000 with tight stops, being prepared to buy again on signs of basing between 1.2950 and 1.2900. Target is 1.3100 - 1.3150, where longs can be closed and the trade reversed for a new target of 1.2900. Trades may have to be nimble and flexible this week, as we test key retracement levels and look for a new base.

EUR/USD Hourly chart:



EUR/USD Weekly chart:

 

[forex618]

Forex618.net Daily Currency report for Tuesday January 09 2007

This is only a guide. Please refer to our specific entry signals for exact entries and stops.

This Week's Economic Calendar
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised From
Jan 08 15:00 Consumer Credit Nov NA $4.0B -$1.2B
Jan 10 08:30 Trade Balance Nov NA -$59.0B -$58.9B
Jan 10 10:00 Wholesale Inventories Nov NA 0.5% 0.8%
Jan 10 10:30 Crude Inventories 01/05 NA NA -8132K
Jan 11 08:30 Initial Claims 01/05 NA NA NA
Jan 11 14:00 Treasury Budget Dec NA $24.0B $11.2B
Jan 12 08:30 Export Prices ex-ag. Dec NA NA 0.1%
Jan 12 08:30 Import Prices ex-oil Dec NA NA 0.7%
Jan 12 08:30 Retail Sales Dec NA 0.6% 1.0%
Jan 12 08:30 Retail Sales ex-auto Dec NA 0.6% 1.1%
Jan 12 10:00 Business Inventories Nov

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

EUR/USD

Weekly Trend direction: Bearish

Weekly trend reversal level: 1.3300

Resistance levels: 1.3100, 1.3150, 1.3180, 1.3230

Strategy: Whilst below the weekly trend reversal level, sell rallies to resistance after an entry signal.

Medium term: The euro has broken above the large flag formation which has dominated the technical picture in 2006. Now, whilst above 1.2900 (1.2800 max), the euro remains in an uptrend which is heading back towards 1.3600, the multi-year high, and possibly higher still, towards 1.4100.

Today: Bouncing from 1.3000 as expected but without much energy - it looks as if we might need to retest the lows or even a little lower. Overall the strategy remains the same - shorter term charts are oversold and 1.3000 is a key technical level, being a "big figure" and also the previous breakout level when the rally to 1.3370 began last year. Traders should try small longs at 1.3000 with tight stops, being prepared to buy again on signs of basing between 1.2950 and 1.2900. Target is 1.3100 - 1.3150, where longs can be closed and the trade reversed for a new target of 1.2900. Trades may have to be nimble and flexible this week, as we test key retracement levels and look for a new base.

EUR/USD Hourly chart:

 

[forex618]

Forex618.net Daily Currency report for Wednesday January 10 2007

This is only a guide. Please refer to our specific entry signals for exact entries and stops.

This Week's Economic Calendar
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised From
Jan 08 15:00 Consumer Credit Nov NA $4.0B -$1.2B
Jan 10 08:30 Trade Balance Nov NA -$59.0B -$58.9B
Jan 10 10:00 Wholesale Inventories Nov NA 0.5% 0.8%
Jan 10 10:30 Crude Inventories 01/05 NA NA -8132K
Jan 11 08:30 Initial Claims 01/05 NA NA NA
Jan 11 14:00 Treasury Budget Dec NA $24.0B $11.2B
Jan 12 08:30 Export Prices ex-ag. Dec NA NA 0.1%
Jan 12 08:30 Import Prices ex-oil Dec NA NA 0.7%
Jan 12 08:30 Retail Sales Dec NA 0.6% 1.0%
Jan 12 08:30 Retail Sales ex-auto Dec NA 0.6% 1.1%
Jan 12 10:00 Business Inventories Nov

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

EUR/USD

Weekly Trend direction: Bearish

Weekly trend reversal level: 1.3300

Resistance levels: 1.3100, 1.3150, 1.3180, 1.3230

Strategy: Whilst below the weekly trend reversal level, sell rallies to resistance after an entry signal.

Medium term: The euro has broken above the large flag formation which has dominated the technical picture in 2006. Now, whilst above 1.2900 (1.2800 max), the euro remains in an uptrend which is heading back towards 1.3600, the multi-year high, and possibly higher still, towards 1.4100.

Today: Dropping a little lower to 1.2960 as expected, and making a small attempt to base here. We continue to feel that the euro will try to form a medium term low above 1.2900, despite last week's bearish momentum, and any clear signs of reversal should be good opportunities to buy euros for another rally back to 1.3300/1.3400. For today, try small longs at 1.2960, stops below 1.2950, being prepared to re-buy at 1.2900/1.2920.

EUR/USD Hourly chart:



EUR/USD Weekly chart:

 

[gamma]

Forex618,
I have been watching and am currently on a trail for the service.
On your website you say the trading time is between 6am and 6 p.m CET
however signals seem to be sent out as early as 5 a.m Can you please explain this.
I have tried contacting you by your admin and private messaging on this site.

 

[forex618]

Hi Gamma

Trading times vary sometimes by an hour, depending on daylight savings adjustments. Presently, trading begins at 5AM. I have corrected the website at www.forex618.net/signals.htm Sorry about any confusion

 

[gamma]

Hi, Forex,
Thanks for the quick reply,
I have one more question which might be of interest to other potential subscribers.
Although ,presently the signals are very good ,You have to be within the vicinity of a computer to receive and act on the signal ,hence you are still tied to staying in.Can the signal be sent out by text message to a mobile phone therefore eliminating the need to stay indoors and in the vicinity of a internet connection to act promply.
Thanks

 

[forex618]

Hi

The rules of this forum do not allow promotion of our service. Please feel free to email us on [email protected] to request more information. I hope you understand. Thanks!

 

[gamma]

Thankyou forex618,

Can you pleaseccheck your message inbox on the site please

 

[forex618]

Forex618.net Daily Currency report for Thursday January 11 2007

This is only a guide. Please refer to our specific entry signals for exact entries and stops.

This Week's Economic Calendar
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised From
Jan 08 15:00 Consumer Credit Nov NA $4.0B -$1.2B
Jan 10 08:30 Trade Balance Nov NA -$59.0B -$58.9B
Jan 10 10:00 Wholesale Inventories Nov NA 0.5% 0.8%
Jan 10 10:30 Crude Inventories 01/05 NA NA -8132K
Jan 11 08:30 Initial Claims 01/05 NA NA NA
Jan 11 14:00 Treasury Budget Dec NA $24.0B $11.2B
Jan 12 08:30 Export Prices ex-ag. Dec NA NA 0.1%
Jan 12 08:30 Import Prices ex-oil Dec NA NA 0.7%
Jan 12 08:30 Retail Sales Dec NA 0.6% 1.0%
Jan 12 08:30 Retail Sales ex-auto Dec NA 0.6% 1.1%
Jan 12 10:00 Business Inventories Nov

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

EUR/USD

Weekly Trend direction: Bearish

Weekly trend reversal level: 1.3300

Resistance levels: 1.3050, 1.3100, 1.3160

Strategy: Whilst below the weekly trend reversal level, sell rallies to resistance after an entry signal.

Medium term: The euro has broken above the large flag formation which has dominated the technical picture in 2006. Now, whilst above 1.2900 (1.2800 max), the euro remains in an uptrend which is heading back towards 1.3600, the multi-year high, and possibly higher still, towards 1.4100.

Today: The euro has now retraced 50% of the rally since October last year and seems to be forming an interim bottom above 1.2920. The strategy has not changed and we continue to feel that the euro will try to form a medium term low above 1.2900, despite last week's bearish momentum, and any clear signs of reversal should be good opportunities to buy euros for another rally back to 1.3300/1.3400. For today, try small longs at 1.2930/45, stops below 1.2920. First target is 1.3050 and then 1.3100, where we will be watching carefully for signs of topping again.

EUR/USD Hourly chart:



EUR/USD Weekly chart:

 

[forex618]

Forex618.net Daily Currency report for Friday January 12 2007

This is only a guide. Please refer to our specific entry signals for exact entries and stops.

This Week's Economic Calendar
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised From
Jan 08 15:00 Consumer Credit Nov NA $4.0B -$1.2B
Jan 10 08:30 Trade Balance Nov NA -$59.0B -$58.9B
Jan 10 10:00 Wholesale Inventories Nov NA 0.5% 0.8%
Jan 10 10:30 Crude Inventories 01/05 NA NA -8132K
Jan 11 08:30 Initial Claims 01/05 NA NA NA
Jan 11 14:00 Treasury Budget Dec NA $24.0B $11.2B
Jan 12 08:30 Export Prices ex-ag. Dec NA NA 0.1%
Jan 12 08:30 Import Prices ex-oil Dec NA NA 0.7%
Jan 12 08:30 Retail Sales Dec NA 0.6% 1.0%
Jan 12 08:30 Retail Sales ex-auto Dec NA 0.6% 1.1%
Jan 12 10:00 Business Inventories Nov

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

EUR/USD

Weekly Trend direction: Bearish

Weekly trend reversal level: 1.3300

Resistance levels: 1.3050, 1.3100, 1.3160

Strategy: Whilst below the weekly trend reversal level, sell rallies to resistance after an entry signal.

Medium term: The euro has broken above the large flag formation which has dominated the technical picture in 2006. Now, whilst above 1.2900 (1.2800 max), the euro remains in an uptrend which is heading back towards 1.3600, the multi-year high, and possibly higher still, towards 1.4100.

Today: Plunging lower than most people expected, below key support at 1.2920 and touching 1.2880. Momentum is clearly bearish now and the euro could go lower towards the 61.8% retracement level at 1.2820. However, conditions are very oversold right now and the 100 day moving average might just force the single currency to hold at current levels and form a new base. Today, traders could try small longs at 1.2890, stops below 1.2870 (there are small signs of basing here already) or wait for a further dip to 1.2820 before buying, stops well below 1.2800.

EUR/USD Hourly chart:

 

[forex618]

Forex618.net Daily Currency report for Monday January 15 2007

This is only a guide. Please refer to our specific entry signals for exact entries and stops.

This Week's Economic Calendar
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised From
Jan 16 08:30 NY Empire State Index Jan 13.0 20.0 23.1
Jan 17 08:30 PPI Dec 0.7% 0.6% 2.0%
Jan 17 08:30 Core PPI Dec 0.1% 0.1% 1.3%
Jan 17 09:00 Net Foreign Purchases Nov $82.3B
Jan 17 09:15 Industrial Production Dec 0.0% 0.1% 0.2%
Jan 17 09:15 Capacity Utilization Dec 81.6% 81.8% 81.8%
Jan 17 10:30 Crude Inventories 01/12 NA NA -4990K
Jan 17 14:00 Fed's Beige Book
Jan 18 08:30 CPI Dec 0.4% 0.5% 0.0%
Jan 18 08:30 Core CPI Dec 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Jan 18 08:30 Housing Starts Dec 1580K 1575K 1588K
Jan 18 08:30 Building Permits Dec 1510K 1510K 1513K
Jan 18 08:30 Initial Claims 01/12 315K NA 299K
Jan 18 10:00 Leading Indicators Dec 0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Jan 18 12:00 Philadelphia Fed Jan 3.0 3.0 -2.3
Jan 19 10:00 Mich Sentiment-Prel. Jan 93.0 92.0 91.7

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

EUR/USD

Weekly Trend direction: Bearish

Weekly trend reversal level: 1.3300

Resistance levels: 1.3000, 1.3050.

Strategy: Whilst below the weekly trend reversal level, sell rallies to resistance after an entry signal.

Medium term: The euro has broken above the large flag formation which has dominated the technical picture in 2006. Now, whilst above 1.2900 (1.2800 max), the euro remains in an uptrend which is heading back towards 1.3600, the multi-year high, and possibly higher still, towards 1.4100.

Today: Little change after a small "spike low" on Friday and some evidence of reversal on hourly and daily charts. We should now recover to 1.3000 and possibly to 1.3050, but we shall be watching for signs of topping in those areas during this week, before selling euros for another attempt at cracking 1.2800. For today, hold onto counter-trend positions targeting the above reversal zones before closing and selling on signs of topping.

EUR/USD Hourly chart:



EUR/USD Weekly chart: