Forex618 Daily Currency report

[forex618]

Forex618.net Daily Currency report for Monday October 02 2006

This is only a guide. Please refer to our specific entry signals for exact entries and stops.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
This Week's Economic Calendar
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised From
Oct 02 10:00 Construction Spending Aug -0.4% -0.3% -1.2
Oct 02 10:00 ISM Index Sep 54.0 53.5 54.5
Oct 03 00:00 Auto Sales Sep 5.4M 5.5M 5.3M
Oct 03 00:00 Truck Sales Sep 7.2M 7.1M 7.1M
Oct 04 10:00 Factory Orders Aug 0.0% 0.0% -0.6%
Oct 04 10:00 ISM Services Sep 56.0 56.0 57.0
Oct 04 10:30 Crude Inventories 09/29 NA NA -109K
Oct 05 08:30 Initial Claims 09/30 315K 315K 316K
Oct 06 08:30 Average Workweek Sep 33.8 33.8 33.8
Oct 06 08:30 Hourly Earnings Sep 0.3% 0.3% 0.1%
Oct 06 08:30 Nonfarm Payrolls Sep 115K 120K 128K
Oct 06 08:30 Unemployment Rate Sep 4.7% 4.7% 4.7%
Oct 06 15:00 Consumer Credit Aug $10.0B $5.0B $5.5B

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

EUR/USD

Weekly Trend direction: Bullish

Weekly trend reversal level: 1.2615

S/R levels: 1.2620 - 1.2640

Strategy: Whilst above the weekly trend reversal level, buy dips to S/R levels after an entry signal.

Medium term: The lowest volatility on record and no breakout means no change. Euro remains essentially range-bound between 1.2600 and 1.3000 and trending action is limited.

Today: A small dip to 1.2640 on Friday was soon reversed with a rebound back to 1.2700. there is very little to say about the single currency, except that we should hold above 1.2600 and eventually make a recovery back to 1.2900. Until then, expect more dreary and boring trading. A break below 1.2600 postpones all this and may lead to a clear out down to 1.2450.

EUR/USD Hourly chart:



EUR/USD Weekly chart:

 

[forex618]

Forex618.net Daily Currency report for Tuesday October 03 2006

This is only a guide. Please refer to our specific entry signals for exact entries and stops.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
This Week's Economic Calendar
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised From
Oct 02 10:00 Construction Spending Aug -0.4% -0.3% -1.2
Oct 02 10:00 ISM Index Sep 54.0 53.5 54.5
Oct 03 00:00 Auto Sales Sep 5.4M 5.5M 5.3M
Oct 03 00:00 Truck Sales Sep 7.2M 7.1M 7.1M
Oct 04 10:00 Factory Orders Aug 0.0% 0.0% -0.6%
Oct 04 10:00 ISM Services Sep 56.0 56.0 57.0
Oct 04 10:30 Crude Inventories 09/29 NA NA -109K
Oct 05 08:30 Initial Claims 09/30 315K 315K 316K
Oct 06 08:30 Average Workweek Sep 33.8 33.8 33.8
Oct 06 08:30 Hourly Earnings Sep 0.3% 0.3% 0.1%
Oct 06 08:30 Nonfarm Payrolls Sep 115K 120K 128K
Oct 06 08:30 Unemployment Rate Sep 4.7% 4.7% 4.7%
Oct 06 15:00 Consumer Credit Aug $10.0B $5.0B $5.5B

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

EUR/USD

Weekly Trend direction: Bullish

Weekly trend reversal level: 1.2615

S/R levels: 1.2620 - 1.2660

Strategy: Whilst above the weekly trend reversal level, buy dips to S/R levels after an entry signal.

Medium term: The lowest volatility on record and no breakout means no change. Euro remains essentially range-bound between 1.2600 and 1.3000 and trending action is limited.

Today: At last some life in the euro as we rebound back to 1.2750, but let's not get too carried away. We need to break above 1.2800 before we even begin to get excited about the possibility of a breakout. Until then, allow for more boring work between 1.2800 and 1.2650, with dips offering opportunities to buy.

EUR/USD Hourly chart:



EUR/USD Weekly chart:

 

[forex618]

The attached chart shows the EURUSD weekly chart and the expected move to 1.3500 in the next few weeks. The classic bullish pennant and record low volatility means a breakout higher is very likely, with the target price roughly 1.3500. This move is likely to be explosive and dramatic, taking many by surprise and triggering many medium to long term stops and options barriers in the process.

 

[forex618]

Forex618.net Daily Currency report for Friday October 06 2006

This is only a guide. Please refer to our specific entry signals for exact entries and stops.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
This Week's Economic Calendar
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised From
Oct 02 10:00 Construction Spending Aug -0.4% -0.3% -1.2
Oct 02 10:00 ISM Index Sep 54.0 53.5 54.5
Oct 03 00:00 Auto Sales Sep 5.4M 5.5M 5.3M
Oct 03 00:00 Truck Sales Sep 7.2M 7.1M 7.1M
Oct 04 10:00 Factory Orders Aug 0.0% 0.0% -0.6%
Oct 04 10:00 ISM Services Sep 56.0 56.0 57.0
Oct 04 10:30 Crude Inventories 09/29 NA NA -109K
Oct 05 08:30 Initial Claims 09/30 315K 315K 316K
Oct 06 08:30 Average Workweek Sep 33.8 33.8 33.8
Oct 06 08:30 Hourly Earnings Sep 0.3% 0.3% 0.1%
Oct 06 08:30 Nonfarm Payrolls Sep 115K 120K 128K
Oct 06 08:30 Unemployment Rate Sep 4.7% 4.7% 4.7%
Oct 06 15:00 Consumer Credit Aug $10.0B $5.0B $5.5B

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

EUR/USD

Weekly Trend direction: Bullish

Weekly trend reversal level: 1.2615

S/R levels: 1.2620 - 1.2660

Strategy: Whilst above the weekly trend reversal level, buy dips to S/R levels after an entry signal.

Medium term: The lowest volatility on record and no breakout means no change. Euro remains essentially range-bound between 1.2600 and 1.3000 and trending action is limited.

Today: No change as we wait for the jobs report later today. Another incredibly dull week so far for the euro so far, and nothing to add to the analysis of the past 12 weeks or so. We are entering the apex of a contracting bullish pennant, and volatility is at a record low, meaning a (dramatic) breakout is only a matter of time. However, we need to close above 1.2800 before we even begin to get excited about the possibility of this happening. Until then, allow for more boring work between 1.2800 and 1.2650, with dips offering opportunities to buy.

EUR/USD Hourly chart:



EUR/USD Weekly chart:

 

[forex618]

Forex618.net Daily Currency report for Tuesday October 10 2006

This is only a guide. Please refer to our specific entry signals for exact entries and stops.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
This Week's Economic Calendar
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised From
Oct 10 00:00 Treasury Budget Sep (TBA) $55.0B $45.0B $35.7B
Oct 10 10:00 Wholesale Inventories Aug 0.8% 0.6% 0.8%
Oct 11 10:30 Crude Inventories 10/06 NA NA 3355K
Oct 11 14:00 FOMC Minutes Sep 20
Oct 12 08:30 Initial Claims 10/07 310K 312K 302K
Oct 12 08:30 Trade Balance Aug -$66.0B -$66.5B -$68.0B
Oct 12 14:00 Fed's Beige Book
Oct 13 08:30 Export Prices ex-ag. Sep NA NA 0.4%
Oct 13 08:30 Import Prices ex-oil Sep NA NA 0.5%
Oct 13 08:30 Retail Sales Sep 0.1% 0.2% 0.2%
Oct 13 08:30 Retail Sales ex-auto Sep -0.1% 0.0% 0.2%
Oct 13 09:50 Mich Sentiment-Prel. Oct 86.0 86.0 85.4
Oct 13 10:00 Business Inventories Aug 0.6% 0.5% 0.6%

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

EUR/USD

Weekly Trend direction: Bearish

Weekly trend reversal level: 1.2780

S/R levels: 1.2670 - 1.2700

Strategy: Whilst above the weekly trend reversal level, sell rallies to resistance levels after an entry signal.

Medium term: The Euro has dropped below immediate support at 1.2670, but remains in the broader 1.2450 - 1.2950 range which has dominated since June. This means range trading should continue until the Euro breaks out one way or the other.

Today: A tiny range yesterday means we might just have a "full stop" at the bottom of last week's decline. The Euro has dropped below weekly support and momentum has turned bearish. Whilst support at 1.2570 should hold in the early part of the week, rallies to 1.2670/1.2730 are opportunities to sell euros for another test of last weeks lows. Only a rally above 1.2730 and the weekly high at 1.2770 will turn the euro bullish.

EUR/USD Hourly chart:



EUR/USD Weekly chart:

 

[forex618]

Forex618.net Daily Currency report for Friday October 13 2006

This is only a guide. Please refer to our specific entry signals for exact entries and stops.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
This Week's Economic Calendar
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised From
Oct 10 00:00 Treasury Budget Sep (TBA) $55.0B $45.0B $35.7B
Oct 10 10:00 Wholesale Inventories Aug 0.8% 0.6% 0.8%
Oct 11 10:30 Crude Inventories 10/06 NA NA 3355K
Oct 11 14:00 FOMC Minutes Sep 20
Oct 12 08:30 Initial Claims 10/07 310K 312K 302K
Oct 12 08:30 Trade Balance Aug -$66.0B -$66.5B -$68.0B
Oct 12 14:00 Fed's Beige Book
Oct 13 08:30 Export Prices ex-ag. Sep NA NA 0.4%
Oct 13 08:30 Import Prices ex-oil Sep NA NA 0.5%
Oct 13 08:30 Retail Sales Sep 0.1% 0.2% 0.2%
Oct 13 08:30 Retail Sales ex-auto Sep -0.1% 0.0% 0.2%
Oct 13 09:50 Mich Sentiment-Prel. Oct 86.0 86.0 85.4
Oct 13 10:00 Business Inventories Aug 0.6% 0.5% 0.6%

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

EUR/USD

Weekly Trend direction: Bearish

Weekly trend reversal level: 1.2780

S/R levels: 1.2620 - 1.2670

Strategy: Whilst above the weekly trend reversal level, sell rallies to resistance levels after an entry signal.

Medium term: The Euro has dropped below immediate support at 1.2670, but remains in the broader 1.2450 - 1.2950 range which has dominated since June. This means range trading should continue until the Euro breaks out one way or the other.

Today: Unchanged despite (so far rather uninspiring) efforts to base at 1.2500. Like many currencies, the euro has dropped towards medium term support at 1.2500, but remains within this year's trading range of 1.2500 - 1.3000. Despite a bearish direction in our model, the euro is at the bottom of the range and oversold, with small signs of reversal on hourly and daily charts. We prefer to try long positions at this juncture, with stops below 1.2500. Targets are the S/R levels above. Note that a close above 1.2570 will complete an hourly and weekly reversal pattern.

EUR/USD Hourly chart:



EUR/USD Weekly chart:

 

[forex618]

Forex618.net Daily Currency report for Monday October 16 2006

This is only a guide. Please refer to our specific entry signals for exact entries and stops.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
This Week's Economic Calendar
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised From
Oct 16 08:30 NY Empire State Index Oct 13.0 12.0 13.8
Oct 17 08:30 PPI Sep -0.8% -0.6% 0.1%
Oct 17 08:30 Core PPI Sep 0.3% 0.2% -0.4%
Oct 17 09:00 Net Foreign Purchases Aug NA $50.0B $32.9B
Oct 17 09:15 Industrial Production Sep -0.2% 0.0% -0.1%
Oct 17 09:15 Capacity Utilization Sep 82.2% 82.3% 82.4%
Oct 18 08:30 CPI Sep -0.3% -0.3% 0.2%
Oct 18 08:30 Core CPI Sep 0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
Oct 18 08:30 Housing Starts Sep 1640K 1650K 1665K
Oct 18 08:30 Building Permits Sep 1685K 1715K 1727K
Oct 18 10:30 Crude Inventories 10/13 NA NA 2408K
Oct 19 08:30 Initial Claims 10/14 310K NA 308K
Oct 19 10:00 Leading Indicators Sep 0.3% 0.3% -0.2%
Oct 19 12:00 Philadelphia Fed Oct 8.0 6.5 -0.4

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

EUR/USD

Weekly Trend direction: Bearish

Weekly trend reversal level: 1.2625

Resistance levels: 1.2580-1.2620

Strategy: Whilst above the weekly trend reversal level, sell rallies to resistance levels after an entry signal.

Medium term: The Euro has dropped below immediate support at 1.2670, but remains in the broader 1.2450 - 1.2950 range which has dominated since June. This means range trading should continue until the Euro breaks out one way or the other.

Today: Momentum remains extremely slow, but bearish, and we are close to the medium term range support level at 1.2560. We shall allow for more work above here today, followed by possibly a sharp rally higher. As our model remains bearish below 1.2625, we will be looking for topping activity in that area. Until then, buy dips above 1.2450.

EUR/USD Hourly chart:



EUR/USD Weekly chart:

 

[forex618]

Forex618.net Daily Currency report for Wednesday October 18 2006

This is only a guide. Please refer to our specific entry signals for exact entries and stops.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
This Week's Economic Calendar
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised From
Oct 16 08:30 NY Empire State Index Oct 13.0 12.0 13.8
Oct 17 08:30 PPI Sep -0.8% -0.6% 0.1%
Oct 17 08:30 Core PPI Sep 0.3% 0.2% -0.4%
Oct 17 09:00 Net Foreign Purchases Aug NA $50.0B $32.9B
Oct 17 09:15 Industrial Production Sep -0.2% 0.0% -0.1%
Oct 17 09:15 Capacity Utilization Sep 82.2% 82.3% 82.4%
Oct 18 08:30 CPI Sep -0.3% -0.3% 0.2%
Oct 18 08:30 Core CPI Sep 0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
Oct 18 08:30 Housing Starts Sep 1640K 1650K 1665K
Oct 18 08:30 Building Permits Sep 1685K 1715K 1727K
Oct 18 10:30 Crude Inventories 10/13 NA NA 2408K
Oct 19 08:30 Initial Claims 10/14 310K NA 308K
Oct 19 10:00 Leading Indicators Sep 0.3% 0.3% -0.2%
Oct 19 12:00 Philadelphia Fed Oct 8.0 6.5 -0.4

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

EUR/USD

Weekly Trend direction: Bearish

Weekly trend reversal level: 1.2625

Resistance levels: 1.2580-1.2620

Strategy: Whilst above the weekly trend reversal level, sell rallies to resistance levels after an entry signal.

Medium term: The Euro has dropped below immediate support at 1.2670, but remains in the broader 1.2450 - 1.2950 range which has dominated since June. This means range trading should continue until the Euro breaks out one way or the other.

Today: Little change after three terribly quiet days this week. Momentum remains extremely slow, but bearish, and we are close to the medium term range support level at 1.2450. We shall allow for more work above here today, followed by possibly a sharp rally higher. As our model remains bearish below 1.2625, we will be looking for topping activity in that area. Until then, buy dips above 1.2450.

EUR/USD Hourly chart:



EUR/USD Weekly chart:

 

[forex618]

Forex618.net Daily Currency report for Thursday October 19 2006

This is only a guide. Please refer to our specific entry signals for exact entries and stops.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
This Week's Economic Calendar
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised From
Oct 16 08:30 NY Empire State Index Oct 13.0 12.0 13.8
Oct 17 08:30 PPI Sep -0.8% -0.6% 0.1%
Oct 17 08:30 Core PPI Sep 0.3% 0.2% -0.4%
Oct 17 09:00 Net Foreign Purchases Aug NA $50.0B $32.9B
Oct 17 09:15 Industrial Production Sep -0.2% 0.0% -0.1%
Oct 17 09:15 Capacity Utilization Sep 82.2% 82.3% 82.4%
Oct 18 08:30 CPI Sep -0.3% -0.3% 0.2%
Oct 18 08:30 Core CPI Sep 0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
Oct 18 08:30 Housing Starts Sep 1640K 1650K 1665K
Oct 18 08:30 Building Permits Sep 1685K 1715K 1727K
Oct 18 10:30 Crude Inventories 10/13 NA NA 2408K
Oct 19 08:30 Initial Claims 10/14 310K NA 308K
Oct 19 10:00 Leading Indicators Sep 0.3% 0.3% -0.2%
Oct 19 12:00 Philadelphia Fed Oct 8.0 6.5 -0.4

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

EUR/USD

Weekly Trend direction: Bearish

Weekly trend reversal level: 1.2625

Resistance levels: 1.2580-1.2620

Strategy: Whilst above the weekly trend reversal level, sell rallies to resistance levels after an entry signal.

Medium term: The Euro has dropped below immediate support at 1.2670, but remains in the broader 1.2450 - 1.2950 range which has dominated since June. This means range trading should continue until the Euro breaks out one way or the other.

Today: Little change after four terribly quiet days this week. Momentum remains extremely slow, but bearish, and we are close to the medium term range support level at 1.2450. We shall allow for more work above here today, followed by possibly a sharp rally higher. As our model remains bearish below 1.2625, we will be looking for topping activity in that area. Until then, buy dips above 1.2450.

EUR/USD Hourly chart:



EUR/USD Weekly chart:

 

[forex618]

Forex618.net Daily Currency report for Friday October 20 2006

This is only a guide. Please refer to our specific entry signals for exact entries and stops.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
This Week's Economic Calendar
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised From
Oct 16 08:30 NY Empire State Index Oct 13.0 12.0 13.8
Oct 17 08:30 PPI Sep -0.8% -0.6% 0.1%
Oct 17 08:30 Core PPI Sep 0.3% 0.2% -0.4%
Oct 17 09:00 Net Foreign Purchases Aug NA $50.0B $32.9B
Oct 17 09:15 Industrial Production Sep -0.2% 0.0% -0.1%
Oct 17 09:15 Capacity Utilization Sep 82.2% 82.3% 82.4%
Oct 18 08:30 CPI Sep -0.3% -0.3% 0.2%
Oct 18 08:30 Core CPI Sep 0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
Oct 18 08:30 Housing Starts Sep 1640K 1650K 1665K
Oct 18 08:30 Building Permits Sep 1685K 1715K 1727K
Oct 18 10:30 Crude Inventories 10/13 NA NA 2408K
Oct 19 08:30 Initial Claims 10/14 310K NA 308K
Oct 19 10:00 Leading Indicators Sep 0.3% 0.3% -0.2%
Oct 19 12:00 Philadelphia Fed Oct 8.0 6.5 -0.4

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

EUR/USD

Weekly Trend direction: Bullish

Weekly trend reversal level: 1.2480

Support levels: 1.2580-1.2540

Strategy: Whilst above the weekly trend reversal level, buy dips to support levels after an entry signal.

Medium term: The Euro has dropped below immediate support at 1.2670, but remains in the broader 1.2450 - 1.2950 range which has dominated since June. This means range trading should continue until the Euro breaks out one way or the other.

Today: At last a bit of action as the euro rallies past 1.2600 and forms (so far) a reversal on weekly charts. We shall now be looking for opportunities to buy on dips, which should be around 1.2580 - 1.2540 today, if seen. First target for the next leg upwards is 1.2700 (10 week MA and Fibonacci retracement level) and then 1.2800.

EUR/USD Hourly chart:



EUR/USD Weekly chart:

 

[forex618]

Forex618.net Daily Currency report for Monday October 23 2006

This is only a guide. Please refer to our specific entry signals for exact entries and stops.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
This Week's Economic Calendar
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised From
Oct 25 10:00 Existing Home Sales Sep 6.35M 6.25M 6.30M
Oct 25 10:30 Crude Inventories 10/20 NA NA 5020K
Oct 25 14:15 FOMC policy statement
Oct 26 08:30 Durable Orders Sep 4.5% 2.3% 0.0%
Oct 26 08:30 Initial Claims 10/21 310K 308K 299K
Oct 26 10:00 Help-Wanted Index Sep 31 31 31
Oct 26 10:00 New Home Sales Sep 1030K 1050K 1050K
Oct 27 08:30 GDP-Adv. Q3 2.0% 2.1% 2.6%
Oct 27 08:30 Chain Deflator-Adv. Q3 2.8% 2.9% 3.3%
Oct 27 09:50 Mich Sentiment-Rev. Oct 92.3 92.5 92.3

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

EUR/USD

Weekly Trend direction: Bullish

Weekly trend reversal level: 1.2480

Support levels: 1.2580-1.2540

Strategy: Whilst above the weekly trend reversal level, buy dips to support levels after an entry signal.

Medium term: The Euro has dropped below immediate support at 1.2670, but remains in the broader 1.2450 - 1.2950 range which has dominated since June. This means range trading should continue until the Euro breaks out one way or the other.

Today: Almost no change on Friday and the analysis remains the same: At last a bit of action as the euro rallies past 1.2600 and forms (so far) a reversal on weekly charts. We shall now be looking for opportunities to buy on dips, which should be around 1.2580 - 1.2540 today, if seen. First target for the next leg upwards is 1.2700 (10 week MA and Fibonacci retracement level) and then 1.2800.

EUR/USD Hourly chart:



EUR/USD Weekly chart:

 

[forex618]

Forex618.net Daily Currency report for Wednesday October 25 2006

This is only a guide. Please refer to our specific entry signals for exact entries and stops.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
This Week's Economic Calendar
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised From
Oct 25 10:00 Existing Home Sales Sep 6.35M 6.25M 6.30M
Oct 25 10:30 Crude Inventories 10/20 NA NA 5020K
Oct 25 14:15 FOMC policy statement
Oct 26 08:30 Durable Orders Sep 4.5% 2.3% 0.0%
Oct 26 08:30 Initial Claims 10/21 310K 308K 299K
Oct 26 10:00 Help-Wanted Index Sep 31 31 31
Oct 26 10:00 New Home Sales Sep 1030K 1050K 1050K
Oct 27 08:30 GDP-Adv. Q3 2.0% 2.1% 2.6%
Oct 27 08:30 Chain Deflator-Adv. Q3 2.8% 2.9% 3.3%
Oct 27 09:50 Mich Sentiment-Rev. Oct 92.3 92.5 92.3

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

EUR/USD

Weekly Trend direction: Bullish

Weekly trend reversal level: 1.2480

Support levels: 1.2580-1.2540

Strategy: Whilst above the weekly trend reversal level, buy dips to support levels after an entry signal.

Medium term: The Euro has dropped below immediate support at 1.2670, but remains in the broader 1.2450 - 1.2950 range which has dominated since June. This means range trading should continue until the Euro breaks out one way or the other.

Today: A bit like watching paint dry as the euro traded within a 50 pip range yesterday and managed to hold above 1.2500. Our view remains unchanged, with support at 1.2520 hopefully holding again today and probably a surge higher later in the NY session. First target for the next leg upwards is 1.2700 (10 week MA and Fibonacci retracement level) and then 1.2800. Only below the weekly reversal level and major medium term support at 1.2480 will force a review.

EUR/USD Hourly chart:



EUR/USD Weekly chart:

 

[forex618]

Forex618.net Daily Currency report for Friday October 27 2006

This is only a guide. Please refer to our specific entry signals for exact entries and stops.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
This Week's Economic Calendar
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised From
Oct 25 10:00 Existing Home Sales Sep 6.35M 6.25M 6.30M
Oct 25 10:30 Crude Inventories 10/20 NA NA 5020K
Oct 25 14:15 FOMC policy statement
Oct 26 08:30 Durable Orders Sep 4.5% 2.3% 0.0%
Oct 26 08:30 Initial Claims 10/21 310K 308K 299K
Oct 26 10:00 Help-Wanted Index Sep 31 31 31
Oct 26 10:00 New Home Sales Sep 1030K 1050K 1050K
Oct 27 08:30 GDP-Adv. Q3 2.0% 2.1% 2.6%
Oct 27 08:30 Chain Deflator-Adv. Q3 2.8% 2.9% 3.3%
Oct 27 09:50 Mich Sentiment-Rev. Oct 92.3 92.5 92.3

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

EUR/USD

Weekly Trend direction: Bullish

Weekly trend reversal level: 1.2480

Support levels: 1.2580-1.2620

Strategy: Whilst above the weekly trend reversal level, buy dips to support levels after an entry signal.

Medium term: The Euro has dropped below immediate support at 1.2670, but remains in the broader 1.2450 - 1.2950 range which has dominated since June. This means range trading should continue until the Euro breaks out one way or the other.

Today: First target of 1.2700 has been reached in the cleanest price action we have seen for weeks. The euro will probably consolidate between 1.2700 and 1.2750, perhaps dropping back to the 1.2600's before a new rally. Dips continue to be an opportunity to buy, with support rising up from 1.2600 at the present time.

EUR/USD Hourly chart:



EUR/USD Weekly chart:

 

[forex618]

Forex618.net Daily Currency report for Monday October 30 2006

This is only a guide. Please refer to our specific entry signals for exact entries and stops.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
This Week's Economic Calendar
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised From
Oct 30 08:30 Personal Income Sep 0.4% 0.3% 0.3%
Oct 30 08:30 Personal Spending Sep 0.3% 0.3% 0.1%
Oct 31 08:30 Employment Cost Index Q3 0.8% 0.9% 0.9%
Oct 31 10:00 Chicago PMI Oct 58.0 58.0 62.1
Oct 31 10:00 Consumer Confidence Oct 109.5 108.0 104.5
Nov 01 00:00 Auto Sales Oct 5.2M 5.3M 5.3M
Nov 01 00:00 Truck Sales Oct 7.2M 7.6M 7.6M
Nov 01 10:00 Construction Spending Sep 0.1% 0.0% 0.3%
Nov 01 10:00 ISM Index Oct 54.0 53.1 52.9
Nov 01 10:30 Crude Inventories 10/27 NA NA -3205K
Nov 02 08:30 Initial Claims 10/28 310K NA 308K
Nov 02 08:30 Productivity-Prel Q3 1.9% 1.5% 1.6%
Nov 02 10:00 Factory Orders Sep 3.7% 3.0% 0.0%
Nov 03 08:30 Nonfarm Payrolls Oct 135K 125K 51K
Nov 03 08:30 Unemployment Rate Oct 4.7% 4.6% 4.6%
Nov 03 08:30 Hourly Earnings Oct 0.4% 0.3% 0.2%
Nov 03 08:30 Average Workweek Oct 33.8 33.8 33.8
Nov 03 10:00 ISM Services Oct 55.0 54.5 52.9

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

EUR/USD

Weekly Trend direction: Bullish

Weekly trend reversal level: 1.2520

Support levels: 1.2660-1.2620

Strategy: Whilst above the weekly trend reversal level, buy dips to support levels after an entry signal.

Medium term: The Euro remains in the broader 1.2450 - 1.2950 range which has dominated since June. This means range trading should continue until the Euro breaks out one way or the other.

Today: A little higher on Friday and approaching the 61.8% retracement of the move lower from 1.2950. As dealer charts are a little overbought and some consolidation might be required, allow for the euro to drop back to 1.2650 to 1.2600 (max) before forming a new interim base and moving higher again. Short term target is 1.2800 and then 1.2950. Remember as bullish momentum can still increase considerably, there is an equal chance of another strong rally this week without much retracement, as short positions are stopped out and new buyers are left behind without a chance to enter the market.

EUR/USD Hourly chart:



EUR/USD Weekly chart:

 

[forex618]

Forex618.net Daily Currency report for Wednesday November 01 2006

This is only a guide. Please refer to our specific entry signals for exact entries and stops.

This Week's Economic Calendar
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised From
Oct 30 08:30 Personal Income Sep 0.4% 0.3% 0.3%
Oct 30 08:30 Personal Spending Sep 0.3% 0.3% 0.1%
Oct 31 08:30 Employment Cost Index Q3 0.8% 0.9% 0.9%
Oct 31 10:00 Chicago PMI Oct 58.0 58.0 62.1
Oct 31 10:00 Consumer Confidence Oct 109.5 108.0 104.5
Nov 01 00:00 Auto Sales Oct 5.2M 5.3M 5.3M
Nov 01 00:00 Truck Sales Oct 7.2M 7.6M 7.6M
Nov 01 10:00 Construction Spending Sep 0.1% 0.0% 0.3%
Nov 01 10:00 ISM Index Oct 54.0 53.1 52.9
Nov 01 10:30 Crude Inventories 10/27 NA NA -3205K
Nov 02 08:30 Initial Claims 10/28 310K NA 308K
Nov 02 08:30 Productivity-Prel Q3 1.9% 1.5% 1.6%
Nov 02 10:00 Factory Orders Sep 3.7% 3.0% 0.0%
Nov 03 08:30 Nonfarm Payrolls Oct 135K 125K 51K
Nov 03 08:30 Unemployment Rate Oct 4.7% 4.6% 4.6%
Nov 03 08:30 Hourly Earnings Oct 0.4% 0.3% 0.2%
Nov 03 08:30 Average Workweek Oct 33.8 33.8 33.8
Nov 03 10:00 ISM Services Oct 55.0 54.5 52.9

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

EUR/USD

Weekly Trend direction: Bullish

Weekly trend reversal level: 1.2520

Support levels: 1.2660-1.2680

Strategy: Whilst above the weekly trend reversal level, buy dips to support levels after an entry signal.

Medium term: The Euro remains in the broader 1.2450 - 1.2950 range which has dominated since June. This means range trading should continue until the Euro breaks out one way or the other.

Today: After rallying up to 1.2780 and retracing 61.8% of the drop from 1.2940, the euro is consolidating neatly at 1.2765. Although bullish momentum is strong, the euro is somewhat overbought and this means we may have to correct before the next rally. As dips have been shallow so far, new buyers are probably entering the market at levels which are too expensive, which will either lead to another sharp squeeze higher or a bit of a clear-out. Dips (if seen) should hold above 1.2680 - 1.2650, and the next target is 1.2950.

EUR/USD Hourly chart:



EUR/USD Weekly chart:

 

[forex618]

Forex618.net Daily Currency report for Thursday November 02 2006

This is only a guide. Please refer to our specific entry signals for exact entries and stops.

This Week's Economic Calendar
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised From
Oct 30 08:30 Personal Income Sep 0.4% 0.3% 0.3%
Oct 30 08:30 Personal Spending Sep 0.3% 0.3% 0.1%
Oct 31 08:30 Employment Cost Index Q3 0.8% 0.9% 0.9%
Oct 31 10:00 Chicago PMI Oct 58.0 58.0 62.1
Oct 31 10:00 Consumer Confidence Oct 109.5 108.0 104.5
Nov 01 00:00 Auto Sales Oct 5.2M 5.3M 5.3M
Nov 01 00:00 Truck Sales Oct 7.2M 7.6M 7.6M
Nov 01 10:00 Construction Spending Sep 0.1% 0.0% 0.3%
Nov 01 10:00 ISM Index Oct 54.0 53.1 52.9
Nov 01 10:30 Crude Inventories 10/27 NA NA -3205K
Nov 02 08:30 Initial Claims 10/28 310K NA 308K
Nov 02 08:30 Productivity-Prel Q3 1.9% 1.5% 1.6%
Nov 02 10:00 Factory Orders Sep 3.7% 3.0% 0.0%
Nov 03 08:30 Nonfarm Payrolls Oct 135K 125K 51K
Nov 03 08:30 Unemployment Rate Oct 4.7% 4.6% 4.6%
Nov 03 08:30 Hourly Earnings Oct 0.4% 0.3% 0.2%
Nov 03 08:30 Average Workweek Oct 33.8 33.8 33.8
Nov 03 10:00 ISM Services Oct 55.0 54.5 52.9

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

EUR/USD

Weekly Trend direction: Bullish

Weekly trend reversal level: 1.2520

Support levels: 1.2650-1.2680

Strategy: Whilst above the weekly trend reversal level, buy dips to support levels after an entry signal.

Medium term: The Euro remains in the broader 1.2450 - 1.2950 range which has dominated since June. This means range trading should continue until the Euro breaks out one way or the other.

Today: Interesting price action yesterday saw the euro squeeze suddenly to 1.2800 and then fall back to 1.2760 just as quickly, forming a "spike high" on the hourly chart, and a "doji" on daily and weekly charts (so far). This means that we shall have to allow for consolidation below 1.2800, as low as 1.2700, and probably no lower than 1.2650 on first attempt. Aggressive traders can sell rallies to between 1.2770 and 1.2790, looking to exit and reverse at support zones mentioned above.

EUR/USD Hourly chart:

 

[forex618]

Forex618.net Daily Currency report for Friday November 03 2006

This is only a guide. Please refer to our specific entry signals for exact entries and stops.

This Week's Economic Calendar
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised From
Oct 30 08:30 Personal Income Sep 0.4% 0.3% 0.3%
Oct 30 08:30 Personal Spending Sep 0.3% 0.3% 0.1%
Oct 31 08:30 Employment Cost Index Q3 0.8% 0.9% 0.9%
Oct 31 10:00 Chicago PMI Oct 58.0 58.0 62.1
Oct 31 10:00 Consumer Confidence Oct 109.5 108.0 104.5
Nov 01 00:00 Auto Sales Oct 5.2M 5.3M 5.3M
Nov 01 00:00 Truck Sales Oct 7.2M 7.6M 7.6M
Nov 01 10:00 Construction Spending Sep 0.1% 0.0% 0.3%
Nov 01 10:00 ISM Index Oct 54.0 53.1 52.9
Nov 01 10:30 Crude Inventories 10/27 NA NA -3205K
Nov 02 08:30 Initial Claims 10/28 310K NA 308K
Nov 02 08:30 Productivity-Prel Q3 1.9% 1.5% 1.6%
Nov 02 10:00 Factory Orders Sep 3.7% 3.0% 0.0%
Nov 03 08:30 Nonfarm Payrolls Oct 135K 125K 51K
Nov 03 08:30 Unemployment Rate Oct 4.7% 4.6% 4.6%
Nov 03 08:30 Hourly Earnings Oct 0.4% 0.3% 0.2%
Nov 03 08:30 Average Workweek Oct 33.8 33.8 33.8
Nov 03 10:00 ISM Services Oct 55.0 54.5 52.9

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

EUR/USD

Weekly Trend direction: Bullish

Weekly trend reversal level: 1.2520

Support levels: 1.2650-1.2680

Strategy: Whilst above the weekly trend reversal level, buy dips to support levels after an entry signal.

Medium term: The Euro remains in the broader 1.2450 - 1.2950 range which has dominated since June. This means range trading should continue until the Euro breaks out one way or the other.

Today: A very quiet day yesterday after all the action on Wednesday and now we wait for the dreaded jobs report later today. Although Forex618 is a technical service, we cannot ignore the huge impact the NFP has on determining short term direction and the impossibility of predicting the numbers. That aside, we will allow for consolidation below 1.2800, as low as 1.2700, and probably no lower than 1.2650 on first attempt. Aggressive traders can sell rallies to between 1.2770 and 1.2790, looking to exit and reverse at support zones mentioned above.

EUR/USD Hourly chart:



EUR/USD Weekly chart:




--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

GBP/USD

Weekly Trend direction: Bullish

Weekly trend reversal level: 1.8670

Support levels: 1.8880 - 1.8950

Strategy: Whilst above the weekly trend reversal level, buy dips to support levels after an entry signal.

Medium term: Whilst above major long term support at 1.8500 the outlook for Sterling remains bullish. Below 1.8500 (allowing for spikes and false breaks) means that we shall have to allow for a drop to 1.8300 - 1.8100 and a period of basing there before a resumption of the upward trend.

Today: Little change since yesterday as we range between 1.9050 and 1.9100 ahead of the data today. Like the euro, the pound fell back from long term resistance at 1.9140 after a quick visit. This highlights the importance of this level and means we may need another few days to crack it. Dips should hold roughly above 1.8900/1.8850, where good buying opportunities will arise if seen. A break above 1.9140 would probably cause a lot of rethinking and potential for a rally to 1.9500/1.9600 in fairly short time. Stand aside from this one until we get opportunities to buy dips.

GBP/USD Hourly chart:



GBP/USD Weekly chart:

 

[forex618]

Forex618.net Daily Currency report for Monday November 06 2006

This is only a guide. Please refer to our specific entry signals for exact entries and stops.

This Week's Economic Calendar
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised From
Nov 07 15:00 Consumer Credit Sep $5.0B $5.0B $2.6B
Nov 08 10:30 Crude Inventories 11/03 NA NA 1910K
Nov 09 08:30 Export Prices ex-ag. Oct NA NA -0.5%
Nov 09 08:30 Import Prices ex-oil Oct NA NA 0.1%
Nov 09 08:30 Initial Claims 11/04 310K NA 327K
Nov 09 08:30 Trade Balance Sep -$65.0B -$66.0B -$69.9B
Nov 09 10:00 Wholesale Inventories Sep 0.5% 0.6% 1.1%

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

EUR/USD

Weekly Trend direction: Bullish

Weekly trend reversal level: 1.2670

Support levels: 1.2670

Strategy: Whilst above the weekly trend reversal level, buy dips to support levels after an entry signal.

Medium term: The Euro remains in the broader 1.2450 - 1.2950 range which has dominated since June. This means range trading should continue until the Euro breaks out one way or the other.

Today: The euro dropped to retracement support at 1.2680 after better-than-expected payrolls data (revisions from prior months) and after stalling earlier in the week a key resistance at the 1.2800 level. We will allow for a little more work above 1.2680 today, hopefully followed by a rally back towards 1.2800 later today or tomorrow. A drop below 1.2680 will postpone the rally and we will then have to allow for dips to 1.2640 - 1.2580 before another attempt at basing against support lower down. For today, buy dips near 1.2700, stops below 1.2680.

EUR/USD Hourly chart:



EUR/USD Weekly chart:




--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

GBP/USD

Weekly Trend direction: Bearish

Weekly trend reversal level: 1.9150

Resistance levels: 1.9050 - 1.9070

Strategy: Whilst below the weekly trend reversal level, sell rallies to resistance levels after an entry signal.

Medium term: Whilst above major long term support at 1.8500 the outlook for Sterling remains bullish. Below 1.8500 (allowing for spikes and false breaks) means that we shall have to allow for a drop to 1.8300 - 1.8100 and a period of basing there before a resumption of the upward trend.

Today: Last week's "spike high" candle against major resistance at 1.9150 means that the picture has turned bearish in the short term. Rallies should be capped below 1.9150 and probably below 1.9080. Sell around these levels after an entry signal only. Above 1.9150 means that resistance has failed and the pound is setting up to go much higher.

GBP/USD Hourly chart:



GBP/USD Weekly chart:

 

[forex618]

Forex618.net Daily Currency report for Tuesday November 07 2006

This is only a guide. Please refer to our specific entry signals for exact entries and stops.

This Week's Economic Calendar
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised From
Nov 07 15:00 Consumer Credit Sep $5.0B $5.0B $2.6B
Nov 08 10:30 Crude Inventories 11/03 NA NA 1910K
Nov 09 08:30 Export Prices ex-ag. Oct NA NA -0.5%
Nov 09 08:30 Import Prices ex-oil Oct NA NA 0.1%
Nov 09 08:30 Initial Claims 11/04 310K NA 327K
Nov 09 08:30 Trade Balance Sep -$65.0B -$66.0B -$69.9B
Nov 09 10:00 Wholesale Inventories Sep 0.5% 0.6% 1.1%

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

EUR/USD

Weekly Trend direction: Bullish

Weekly trend reversal level: 1.2670

Support levels: 1.2670

Strategy: Whilst above the weekly trend reversal level, buy dips to support levels after an entry signal.

Medium term: The Euro remains in the broader 1.2450 - 1.2950 range which has dominated since June. This means range trading should continue until the Euro breaks out one way or the other.

Today: We expect dips to 1.2640 - 1.2580 before another attempt at basing against support lower down. Above 1.2800 means a rush higher to 1.2950. Wait to buy dips to aforementioned levels

EUR/USD Hourly chart:

 

[forex618]

Forex618.net Daily Currency report for Thursday November 09 2006

This is only a guide. Please refer to our specific entry signals for exact entries and stops.

This Week's Economic Calendar
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised From
Nov 07 15:00 Consumer Credit Sep $5.0B $5.0B $2.6B
Nov 08 10:30 Crude Inventories 11/03 NA NA 1910K
Nov 09 08:30 Export Prices ex-ag. Oct NA NA -0.5%
Nov 09 08:30 Import Prices ex-oil Oct NA NA 0.1%
Nov 09 08:30 Initial Claims 11/04 310K NA 327K
Nov 09 08:30 Trade Balance Sep -$65.0B -$66.0B -$69.9B
Nov 09 10:00 Wholesale Inventories Sep 0.5% 0.6% 1.1%

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

EUR/USD

Weekly Trend direction: Bullish

Weekly trend reversal level: 1.2670

Support levels: 1.2680, 1.2640, 1.2600

Strategy: Whilst above the weekly trend reversal level, buy dips to support levels after an entry signal.

Medium term: The Euro remains in the broader 1.2450 - 1.2950 range which has dominated since June. This means range trading should continue until the Euro breaks out one way or the other.

Today: Little change from yesterday as the euro held its ground above 1.2740. Further resistance lies at 1.2850, and main support levels are a long way below at 1.2680, 1.2640 and 1.2600. Unfortunately, whilst between the extremes, we are in "no-man's land" and probabilities for trades are not great. For today, sell rallies to 1.2850 or buy dips to 1.2680 - 1.2600 only on clear signs of reversing at the time. Aggressive players might have a stab at buying near 1.2755 with tight stops.

EUR/USD Hourly chart:



EUR/USD Weekly chart:




--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

GBP/USD

Weekly Trend direction: Bearish

Weekly trend reversal level: 1.9150

Resistance levels: 1.9159

Strategy: Whilst below the weekly trend reversal level, sell rallies to resistance levels after an entry signal.

Medium term: Whilst above major long term support at 1.8500 the outlook for Sterling remains bullish. Below 1.8500 (allowing for spikes and false breaks) means that we shall have to allow for a drop to 1.8300 - 1.8100 and a period of basing there before a resumption of the upward trend.

Today: No change yesterday as we traded in a tight range around 1.9050, without giving anything up either way. Like the euro, we remain in limbo land and probably need the other currencies to make new recent highs vs. the dollar before we can break cleanly higher. Until we break through 1.9150 (and close above there on a daily chart) we shall allow for more retracement to support levels at 1.8960 and perhaps even as low as 1.8900/1.8850.

GBP/USD Hourly chart: