Forex618 Daily Currency report

[forex618]

Forex618.net Daily Currency report for Tuesday January 16 2007

This is only a guide. Please refer to our specific entry signals for exact entries and stops.

This Week's Economic Calendar
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised From
Jan 16 08:30 NY Empire State Index Jan 13.0 20.0 23.1
Jan 17 08:30 PPI Dec 0.7% 0.6% 2.0%
Jan 17 08:30 Core PPI Dec 0.1% 0.1% 1.3%
Jan 17 09:00 Net Foreign Purchases Nov $82.3B
Jan 17 09:15 Industrial Production Dec 0.0% 0.1% 0.2%
Jan 17 09:15 Capacity Utilization Dec 81.6% 81.8% 81.8%
Jan 17 10:30 Crude Inventories 01/12 NA NA -4990K
Jan 17 14:00 Fed's Beige Book
Jan 18 08:30 CPI Dec 0.4% 0.5% 0.0%
Jan 18 08:30 Core CPI Dec 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Jan 18 08:30 Housing Starts Dec 1580K 1575K 1588K
Jan 18 08:30 Building Permits Dec 1510K 1510K 1513K
Jan 18 08:30 Initial Claims 01/12 315K NA 299K
Jan 18 10:00 Leading Indicators Dec 0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Jan 18 12:00 Philadelphia Fed Jan 3.0 3.0 -2.3
Jan 19 10:00 Mich Sentiment-Prel. Jan 93.0 92.0 91.7

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

EUR/USD

Weekly Trend direction: Bearish

Weekly trend reversal level: 1.3300

Resistance levels: 1.3000, 1.3050.

Strategy: Whilst below the weekly trend reversal level, sell rallies to resistance after an entry signal.

Medium term: The euro has broken above the large flag formation which has dominated the technical picture in 2006. Now, whilst above 1.2900 (1.2800 max), the euro remains in an uptrend which is heading back towards 1.3600, the multi-year high, and possibly higher still, towards 1.4100.

Today: A tiny range day after the US holiday yesterday has seen the euro remain unchanged going into Tuesday. The outlook remains the same - the euro is oversold on daily charts and is trying to form a short term reversal zone at 1.2880. We should now recover to 1.3000 and possibly to 1.3050, but we shall be watching for signs of topping in those areas during this week, before selling euros for another attempt at cracking 1.2800. For today, buy dips to 1.2880/1.2820 or wait to sell into rallies to mentioned resistance levels later on.

EUR/USD Hourly chart:

 

[thebull27]

aud/usd

on the 4 hour chart could there be a trend reversal structure? head and sholders?

 

[forex618]

Forex618.net Daily Currency report for Wednesday January 16 2007

This is only a guide. Please refer to our specific entry signals for exact entries and stops.

This Week's Economic Calendar
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised From
Jan 16 08:30 NY Empire State Index Jan 13.0 20.0 23.1
Jan 17 08:30 PPI Dec 0.7% 0.6% 2.0%
Jan 17 08:30 Core PPI Dec 0.1% 0.1% 1.3%
Jan 17 09:00 Net Foreign Purchases Nov $82.3B
Jan 17 09:15 Industrial Production Dec 0.0% 0.1% 0.2%
Jan 17 09:15 Capacity Utilization Dec 81.6% 81.8% 81.8%
Jan 17 10:30 Crude Inventories 01/12 NA NA -4990K
Jan 17 14:00 Fed's Beige Book
Jan 18 08:30 CPI Dec 0.4% 0.5% 0.0%
Jan 18 08:30 Core CPI Dec 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Jan 18 08:30 Housing Starts Dec 1580K 1575K 1588K
Jan 18 08:30 Building Permits Dec 1510K 1510K 1513K
Jan 18 08:30 Initial Claims 01/12 315K NA 299K
Jan 18 10:00 Leading Indicators Dec 0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Jan 18 12:00 Philadelphia Fed Jan 3.0 3.0 -2.3
Jan 19 10:00 Mich Sentiment-Prel. Jan 93.0 92.0 91.7

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

EUR/USD

Weekly Trend direction: Bearish

Weekly trend reversal level: 1.3300

Resistance levels: 1.3000, 1.3050.

Strategy: Whilst below the weekly trend reversal level, sell rallies to resistance after an entry signal.

Medium term: The euro has broken above the large flag formation which has dominated the technical picture in 2006. Now, whilst above 1.2900 (1.2800 max), the euro remains in an uptrend which is heading back towards 1.3600, the multi-year high, and possibly higher still, towards 1.4100.

Today: Another quiet day yesterday with a brief spike to 1,2990, and then back down to 1.2910 (61.8% of the small rally this week). This means we shall have to continue to allow for another leg down to 1.2820, and perhaps even 1.2780 (daily/weekly trend line) The overall outlook remains the same - the euro is oversold on daily charts and is trying to form a short term reversal zone at 1.2880. If we can hold here, we should now recover to 1.3000 and possibly to 1.3050, but we shall be watching for signs of topping in those areas during this week, before selling euros for another attempt at cracking 1.2800. For today, buy dips to 1.2880/1.2820 (maybe even 1.2780) or wait to sell into rallies to mentioned resistance levels later on.

EUR/USD Hourly chart:



EUR/USD Weekly chart:

 

[forex618]

Forex618.net Daily Currency report for Thursday January 18 2007

This is only a guide. Please refer to our specific entry signals for exact entries and stops.

This Week's Economic Calendar
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised From
Jan 16 08:30 NY Empire State Index Jan 13.0 20.0 23.1
Jan 17 08:30 PPI Dec 0.7% 0.6% 2.0%
Jan 17 08:30 Core PPI Dec 0.1% 0.1% 1.3%
Jan 17 09:00 Net Foreign Purchases Nov $82.3B
Jan 17 09:15 Industrial Production Dec 0.0% 0.1% 0.2%
Jan 17 09:15 Capacity Utilization Dec 81.6% 81.8% 81.8%
Jan 17 10:30 Crude Inventories 01/12 NA NA -4990K
Jan 17 14:00 Fed's Beige Book
Jan 18 08:30 CPI Dec 0.4% 0.5% 0.0%
Jan 18 08:30 Core CPI Dec 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Jan 18 08:30 Housing Starts Dec 1580K 1575K 1588K
Jan 18 08:30 Building Permits Dec 1510K 1510K 1513K
Jan 18 08:30 Initial Claims 01/12 315K NA 299K
Jan 18 10:00 Leading Indicators Dec 0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Jan 18 12:00 Philadelphia Fed Jan 3.0 3.0 -2.3
Jan 19 10:00 Mich Sentiment-Prel. Jan 93.0 92.0 91.7

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

EUR/USD

Weekly Trend direction: Bearish

Weekly trend reversal level: 1.3300

Resistance levels: 1.3000, 1.3050.

Strategy: Whilst below the weekly trend reversal level, sell rallies to resistance after an entry signal.

Medium term: The euro has broken above the large flag formation which has dominated the technical picture in 2006. Now, whilst above 1.2900 (1.2800 max), the euro remains in an uptrend which is heading back towards 1.3600, the multi-year high, and possibly higher still, towards 1.4100.

Today: Almost no change whatsoever. We managed to bounce weakly from 1.2910, but hardly worth mentioning. The 1.3000/1.3020 zone is now becoming a significant resistance barrier in the immediate term, and this must be breached with a close above it to see further progress higher. Until then, we shall have to continue to allow for another leg down to 1.2820, and perhaps even 1.2780 (daily/weekly trend line) For today, buy dips to 1.2880/1.2820 (maybe even 1.2780) or wait to sell into rallies to mentioned resistance levels later on.

EUR/USD Hourly chart:



EUR/USD Weekly chart:




--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

GBP/USD

Weekly Trend direction: Bullish

Weekly trend reversal level: 1.9580

Support levels: 1.9615, 1.9550

Strategy: Whilst above the weekly trend reversal level, buy dips to support levels after an entry signal.

Medium term: The trend remains bullish whilst above roughly 1.9200, but it is becoming mature and our medium term target is possibly 2.0000. As we approach the BIG figure at 2.0000 and indicators become extremely overbought, great caution is required, as swings both ways may be huge, random and very fast.

Today: Higher again as we re-challenge 1.9750 and outstrip other currencies by miles. Momentum has turned clearly bullish and we now look to buy dips whilst above 1.9600/1.9550. Target is 1.9800, and quite probably 2.0000 in coming days/weeks. The last time we were at that level was 15 years ago, so be prepared for a lot of press hype and market volatility. For today, wait for dips.

GBP/USD Hourly chart:



GBP/USD Weekly chart:




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USD/JPY

Weekly Trend direction: Bullish

Weekly trend reversal level: 118.00

Resistance levels: 121.20

Strategy: Whilst above the weekly trend reversal level, buy dips to support levels after an entry signal.

Medium term: As our view for long term dollar weakness remains intact, we feel that 120.00 - 122.00 will cap rallies and initiate a drop back towards 105.00. Above 122.00 means that the dollar could rally much higher before a medium term top is formed.

Today: Unchanged after hovering at these levels for over a week - Stalling somewhat at 120.80, but so far not very convincingly. There are small signs of topping here, but so far no reason to start selling. Watch for chances to sell around 121.20, which is a key level formed by the high of November 2005. Until then stay out unless a dramatic reversal is seen beforehand. Opportunities to buy dips should be available next week. * Note the BOJ is to announce its interest rate policy shortly today*

USD/JPY Hourly chart:



USD/JPY Weekly chart:

 

[forex618]

Forex618.net Daily Currency report for Friday January 19 2007

This is only a guide. Please refer to our specific entry signals for exact entries and stops.

This Week's Economic Calendar
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised From
Jan 16 08:30 NY Empire State Index Jan 13.0 20.0 23.1
Jan 17 08:30 PPI Dec 0.7% 0.6% 2.0%
Jan 17 08:30 Core PPI Dec 0.1% 0.1% 1.3%
Jan 17 09:00 Net Foreign Purchases Nov $82.3B
Jan 17 09:15 Industrial Production Dec 0.0% 0.1% 0.2%
Jan 17 09:15 Capacity Utilization Dec 81.6% 81.8% 81.8%
Jan 17 10:30 Crude Inventories 01/12 NA NA -4990K
Jan 17 14:00 Fed's Beige Book
Jan 18 08:30 CPI Dec 0.4% 0.5% 0.0%
Jan 18 08:30 Core CPI Dec 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Jan 18 08:30 Housing Starts Dec 1580K 1575K 1588K
Jan 18 08:30 Building Permits Dec 1510K 1510K 1513K
Jan 18 08:30 Initial Claims 01/12 315K NA 299K
Jan 18 10:00 Leading Indicators Dec 0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Jan 18 12:00 Philadelphia Fed Jan 3.0 3.0 -2.3
Jan 19 10:00 Mich Sentiment-Prel. Jan 93.0 92.0 91.7

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

EUR/USD

Weekly Trend direction: Bearish

Weekly trend reversal level: 1.3300

Resistance levels: 1.3000, 1.3050.

Strategy: Whilst below the weekly trend reversal level, sell rallies to resistance after an entry signal.

Medium term: The euro has broken above the large flag formation which has dominated the technical picture in 2006. Now, whilst above 1.2900 (1.2800 max), the euro remains in an uptrend which is heading back towards 1.3600, the multi-year high, and possibly higher still, towards 1.4100.

Today: Back to 1.3000 as we hold the range of the past few days. The 1.3000/1.3020 zone is now becoming a significant resistance barrier in the immediate term, and this must be breached with a close above it to see further progress higher. Until then, we shall have to continue to allow for another leg down to 1.2820, and perhaps even 1.2780 (daily/weekly trend line) For today, buy dips to 1.2880/1.2820 (maybe even 1.2780) or wait to sell into rallies to mentioned resistance levels later on.

EUR/USD Hourly chart:

 

[forex618]

Forex618.net Daily Currency report for Monday January 22 2007

This is only a guide. Please refer to our specific entry signals for exact entries and stops.

This Week's Economic Calendar
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised From
Jan 22 10:00 Leading Indicators Dec 0.4% 0.2% 0.1%
Jan 24 10:30 Crude Inventories 01/19 NA NA 6768K
Jan 25 08:30 Initial Claims 01/19 310K 310K 290K
Jan 25 10:00 Existing Home Sales Dec 6.25M 6.30M 6.28M
Jan 25 10:00 Help-Wanted Index Dec 30 31 30
Jan 26 08:30 Durable Orders Dec 7.0% 3.5% 1.6%
Jan 26 10:00 New Home Sales Dec 1055K 1050K 1047K

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

EUR/USD

Weekly Trend direction: Bearish

Weekly trend reversal level: 1.3010

Resistance levels: 1.3000, 1.3050.

Strategy: Whilst below the weekly trend reversal level, sell rallies to resistance after an entry signal.

Medium term: The euro has broken above the large flag formation which has dominated the technical picture in 2006. Now, whilst above 1.2900 (1.2800 max), the euro remains in an uptrend which is heading back towards 1.3600, the multi-year high, and possibly higher still, towards 1.4100.

Today: Still holding below 1.3000 in what seems to be a sort of "bear flag". Only above 1.3000/1.3050 will negate this and turn momentum bullish. Until then, we shall allow for further dips to 1.2820 and perhaps 1.2750. For today and this week, wait to sell rallies to the mid 1.3000's or watch for opportunities to buy dips to near 1.2800.

EUR/USD Hourly chart:



EUR/USD Weekly chart:

 

[forex618]

Forex618.net Daily Currency report for Tuesday January 23 2007

This is only a guide. Please refer to our specific entry signals for exact entries and stops.

This Week's Economic Calendar
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised From
Jan 22 10:00 Leading Indicators Dec 0.4% 0.2% 0.1%
Jan 24 10:30 Crude Inventories 01/19 NA NA 6768K
Jan 25 08:30 Initial Claims 01/19 310K 310K 290K
Jan 25 10:00 Existing Home Sales Dec 6.25M 6.30M 6.28M
Jan 25 10:00 Help-Wanted Index Dec 30 31 30
Jan 26 08:30 Durable Orders Dec 7.0% 3.5% 1.6%
Jan 26 10:00 New Home Sales Dec 1055K 1050K 1047K

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

EUR/USD

Weekly Trend direction: Bearish

Weekly trend reversal level: 1.3010

Resistance levels: 1.3000, 1.3050.

Strategy: Whilst below the weekly trend reversal level, sell rallies to resistance after an entry signal.

Medium term: The euro has broken above the large flag formation which has dominated the technical picture in 2006. Now, whilst above 1.2900 (1.2800 max), the euro remains in an uptrend which is heading back towards 1.3600, the multi-year high, and possibly higher still, towards 1.4100.

Today: Little change. Still holding below 1.3000 in what seems to be a sort of "bear flag". Only above 1.3000/1.3050 will negate this and turn momentum bullish. Until then, we shall allow for further dips to 1.2820 and perhaps 1.2750. For today and this week, wait to sell rallies to the mid 1.3000's or watch for opportunities to buy dips to near 1.2800.

EUR/USD Hourly chart:



EUR/USD Weekly chart:

 

[forex618]

Forex618.net Daily Currency report for Wednesday January 24 2007

This is only a guide. Please refer to our specific entry signals for exact entries and stops.

This Week's Economic Calendar
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised From
Jan 22 10:00 Leading Indicators Dec 0.4% 0.2% 0.1%
Jan 24 10:30 Crude Inventories 01/19 NA NA 6768K
Jan 25 08:30 Initial Claims 01/19 310K 310K 290K
Jan 25 10:00 Existing Home Sales Dec 6.25M 6.30M 6.28M
Jan 25 10:00 Help-Wanted Index Dec 30 31 30
Jan 26 08:30 Durable Orders Dec 7.0% 3.5% 1.6%
Jan 26 10:00 New Home Sales Dec 1055K 1050K 1047K

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

EUR/USD

Weekly Trend direction: Bullish

Weekly trend reversal level: 1.2850

Support levels: 1.2960, 1.2900, 1.2860

Strategy: Whilst above the weekly trend reversal level, buy dips to support after an entry signal.

Medium term: The euro has broken above the large flag formation which has dominated the technical picture in 2006. Now, whilst above 1.2900 (1.2800 max), the euro remains in an uptrend which is heading back towards 1.3600, the multi-year high, and possibly higher still, towards 1.4100.

Today: While the pound went ballistic yesterday, the euro kept its head and only managed a small rally to 1.3040, short term resistance at the top of the hourly flag and the 20 day moving average. As yet there is no real sign of stalling, and bullish momentum has increased fractionally. With many euro crosses and the pound at such extreme levels (multi-year highs and new records) we need to be very cautious about taking a firm view of direction, as swings are likely to be sudden and large in many currencies. For today we advise extreme caution and little trading across the board, but if you simply must trade, wait for dips to 1.2980 - 1.2950 before buying with tight stops and sights set on 1.3100.

EUR/USD Hourly chart:



EUR/USD Weekly chart:




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GBP/USD

Weekly Trend direction: Bullish

Weekly trend reversal level: 1.9570

Support levels: 1.9650, 1.9580

Strategy: Whilst above the weekly trend reversal level, buy dips to support levels after an entry signal.

Medium term: The trend remains bullish whilst above roughly 1.9200, but it is becoming mature and our medium term target is possibly 2.0000. As we approach the BIG figure at 2.0000 and indicators become extremely overbought, great caution is required, as swings both ways may be huge, random and very fast.

Today: 1.9915, a multi year high and very close to 2.0000. The press is having a field day with this one, and it's no wonder we shied away from 1.9900 as quickly as we got there. As we suggested, the closer we get to 2.0000, the more volatile things will become, and the more likely we are to see large, sudden swings in either direction. Definitely not for the faint-hearted! For today and probably the rest of this week, we prefer not to play the pound, but generally, dips remain buying opportunities for a test of 2.0000.

GBP/USD Hourly chart:



GBP/USD Weekly chart:

 

[forex618]

Forex618.net Daily Currency report for Thursday January 25 2007

This is only a guide. Please refer to our specific entry signals for exact entries and stops.

This Week's Economic Calendar
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised From
Jan 22 10:00 Leading Indicators Dec 0.4% 0.2% 0.1%
Jan 24 10:30 Crude Inventories 01/19 NA NA 6768K
Jan 25 08:30 Initial Claims 01/19 310K 310K 290K
Jan 25 10:00 Existing Home Sales Dec 6.25M 6.30M 6.28M
Jan 25 10:00 Help-Wanted Index Dec 30 31 30
Jan 26 08:30 Durable Orders Dec 7.0% 3.5% 1.6%
Jan 26 10:00 New Home Sales Dec 1055K 1050K 1047K

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

EUR/USD

Weekly Trend direction: Bullish

Weekly trend reversal level: 1.2850

Support levels: 1.2960, 1.2900, 1.2860

Strategy: Whilst above the weekly trend reversal level, buy dips to support after an entry signal.

Medium term: The euro has broken above the large flag formation which has dominated the technical picture in 2006. Now, whilst above 1.2900 (1.2800 max), the euro remains in an uptrend which is heading back towards 1.3600, the multi-year high, and possibly higher still, towards 1.4100.

Today: The markets have descended into chaos, with the yen crosses dropping many hundreds of pips in just a few hours and the majors almost as bad. All except the euro, which has held in a tight range and (dare we say it?) bearish flag formation. With many euro crosses and the pound at such extreme levels (multi-year highs and new records) we need to be very cautious about taking a firm view of direction, as swings are likely to continue be sudden and large in many currencies. Like yesterday, and probably for the rest of this week, we advise extreme caution and little trading across the board. As direction is mixed at best, and as daily charts look bearish, wait for dips to 1.2800 before buying, or stay out for now.

EUR/USD Hourly chart:



EUR/USD Weekly chart:

 

[forex618]

Forex618.net Daily Currency report for Friday January 26 2007

This is only a guide. Please refer to our specific entry signals for exact entries and stops.

This Week's Economic Calendar
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised From
Jan 22 10:00 Leading Indicators Dec 0.4% 0.2% 0.1%
Jan 24 10:30 Crude Inventories 01/19 NA NA 6768K
Jan 25 08:30 Initial Claims 01/19 310K 310K 290K
Jan 25 10:00 Existing Home Sales Dec 6.25M 6.30M 6.28M
Jan 25 10:00 Help-Wanted Index Dec 30 31 30
Jan 26 08:30 Durable Orders Dec 7.0% 3.5% 1.6%
Jan 26 10:00 New Home Sales Dec 1055K 1050K 1047K

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

EUR/USD

Weekly Trend direction: Bullish

Weekly trend reversal level: 1.2850

Support levels: 1.2960, 1.2900, 1.2860

Strategy: Whilst above the weekly trend reversal level, buy dips to support after an entry signal.

Medium term: The euro has broken above the large flag formation which has dominated the technical picture in 2006. Now, whilst above 1.2900 (1.2800 max), the euro remains in an uptrend which is heading back towards 1.3600, the multi-year high, and possibly higher still, towards 1.4100.

Today: A small range yesterday and another small drop to 1.2920, almost 78.6% of the small rally from 1.2860. As there is no evidence of basing yet, we shall have to wait. Either buy around 1.2900/1.2860 on clear signs of reversal, or better still, near 1.2800. There is no rush to enter the market, as the euro needs to clearly announce its next move before we get too interested.

EUR/USD Hourly chart:

 

[forex618]

Forex618.net Daily Currency report for Monday January 29 2007

This is only a guide. Please refer to our specific entry signals for exact entries and stops.

This Week's Economic Calendar
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised From
Jan 30 10:00 Consumer Confidence Jan 110.5 109.5 109.0
Jan 31 08:30 GDP-Adv. Q4 3.0% 3.0% 2.0%
Jan 31 08:30 Chain Deflator-Adv. Q4 1.5% 1.7% 1.9%
Jan 31 08:30 Employment Cost Index Q4 0.9% 1.0% 1.0%
Jan 31 09:45 Chicago PMI Jan 52.0 52.0 51.6
Jan 31 10:00 Construction Spending Dec -0.2% 0.0% -0.2%
Jan 31 10:30 Crude Inventories 01/26 NA NA 789K
Jan 31 14:15 FOMC policy statement
Feb 01 08:30 Personal Income Dec 0.5% 0.5% 0.3%
Feb 01 08:30 Personal Spending Dec 0.7% 0.7% 0.5%
Feb 01 08:30 Initial Claims 01/27 315K 318K 325K
Feb 01 10:00 ISM Index Jan 52.0 51.5 51.4
Feb 01 17:00 Auto Sales Jan 5.4M 5.4M 5.6M
Feb 01 17:00 Truck Sales Jan 7.3M 7.4M 7.2M
Feb 02 08:30 Nonfarm Payrolls Jan 135K 150K 167K
Feb 02 08:30 Unemployment Rate Jan 4.5% 4.5% 4.5%
Feb 02 08:30 Hourly Earnings Jan 0.2% 0.3% 0.5%
Feb 02 08:30 Average Workweek Jan 33.9 33.9 33.9
Feb 02 10:00 Factory Orders Dec 2.0% 1.5% 0.9%
Feb 02 10:00 Mich Sentiment-Rev. Jan 98.0 97.8 98.0

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

EUR/USD

Weekly Trend direction: Bearish

Weekly trend reversal level: 1.3050

Resistance levels: 1.2960, 1.3000, 1.3050

Strategy: Whilst below the weekly trend reversal level, sell rallies to resistance after an entry signal.

Medium term: The euro has broken above the large flag formation which has dominated the technical picture in 2006. Now, whilst above 1.2900 (1.2800 max), the euro remains in an uptrend which is heading back towards 1.3600, the multi-year high, and possibly higher still, towards 1.4100.

Today: Little to write about as we hover around the 1.2900 level after a very brief "spike low" to 1.2880. Although weekly studies have turned slightly bearish again, the strategy remains the same unless we get a rally to resistance. Either buy around 1.2900/1.2860 on clear signs of reversal, or better still, near 1.2800. There is no rush to enter the market, as the euro needs to clearly announce its next move before we get too interested.

EUR/USD Hourly chart:



EUR/USD Weekly chart:




--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

GBP/USD

Weekly Trend direction: Bearish

Weekly trend reversal level: 1.9570

Resistance levels: 1.9680, 1.9730, 1.9780, 1.9840

Strategy: Whilst above the weekly trend reversal level, sell rallies to resistance levels after an entry signal.

Medium term: The trend remains bullish whilst above roughly 1.9200, but it is becoming mature and our medium term target is possibly 2.0000. As we approach the BIG figure at 2.0000 and indicators become extremely overbought, great caution is required, as swings both ways may be huge, random and very fast.

Today: Just below 1.9600 and no signs of basing. Last week's bearish candle is hard to ignore, and although we may get a bounce from current levels, it might be short lived. We will allow for a pullback to 1.9680/1.9730 before a resumption of the new bearish trend. Today, watch for signs of basing above 1.9510/50 before buying for a swing to abve-mentioned resistance levels, before selling again on signs of topping.

GBP/USD Hourly chart:



GBP/USD Weekly chart:

 

[forex618]

Forex618.net Daily Currency report for Tuesday January 30 2007

This is only a guide. Please refer to our specific entry signals for exact entries and stops.

This Week's Economic Calendar
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised From
Jan 30 10:00 Consumer Confidence Jan 110.5 109.5 109.0
Jan 31 08:30 GDP-Adv. Q4 3.0% 3.0% 2.0%
Jan 31 08:30 Chain Deflator-Adv. Q4 1.5% 1.7% 1.9%
Jan 31 08:30 Employment Cost Index Q4 0.9% 1.0% 1.0%
Jan 31 09:45 Chicago PMI Jan 52.0 52.0 51.6
Jan 31 10:00 Construction Spending Dec -0.2% 0.0% -0.2%
Jan 31 10:30 Crude Inventories 01/26 NA NA 789K
Jan 31 14:15 FOMC policy statement
Feb 01 08:30 Personal Income Dec 0.5% 0.5% 0.3%
Feb 01 08:30 Personal Spending Dec 0.7% 0.7% 0.5%
Feb 01 08:30 Initial Claims 01/27 315K 318K 325K
Feb 01 10:00 ISM Index Jan 52.0 51.5 51.4
Feb 01 17:00 Auto Sales Jan 5.4M 5.4M 5.6M
Feb 01 17:00 Truck Sales Jan 7.3M 7.4M 7.2M
Feb 02 08:30 Nonfarm Payrolls Jan 135K 150K 167K
Feb 02 08:30 Unemployment Rate Jan 4.5% 4.5% 4.5%
Feb 02 08:30 Hourly Earnings Jan 0.2% 0.3% 0.5%
Feb 02 08:30 Average Workweek Jan 33.9 33.9 33.9
Feb 02 10:00 Factory Orders Dec 2.0% 1.5% 0.9%
Feb 02 10:00 Mich Sentiment-Rev. Jan 98.0 97.8 98.0

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

EUR/USD

Weekly Trend direction: Bearish

Weekly trend reversal level: 1.3050

Resistance levels: 1.2960, 1.3000, 1.3050

Strategy: Whilst below the weekly trend reversal level, sell rallies to resistance after an entry signal.

Medium term: The euro has broken above the large flag formation which has dominated the technical picture in 2006. Now, whilst above 1.2900 (1.2800 max), the euro remains in an uptrend which is heading back towards 1.3600, the multi-year high, and possibly higher still, towards 1.4100.

Today: Back to 1.2965, and little changed. We have mostly been in a 100 pip range for two weeks now, so the market will be getting complacent, and a large move is likely this week. Although weekly studies have turned slightly bearish again, the strategy remains the same unless we get a rally to resistance. Either buy around 1.2900/1.2860 on clear signs of reversal, or better still, near 1.2800. There is no rush to enter the market, as the euro needs to clearly announce its next move before we get too interested.

EUR/USD Hourly chart:



EUR/USD Weekly chart:

 

[forex618]

Forex618.net Daily Currency report for Thursday February 1 2007

This is only a guide. Please refer to our specific entry signals for exact entries and stops.

This Week's Economic Calendar
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised From
Jan 30 10:00 Consumer Confidence Jan 110.5 109.5 109.0
Jan 31 08:30 GDP-Adv. Q4 3.0% 3.0% 2.0%
Jan 31 08:30 Chain Deflator-Adv. Q4 1.5% 1.7% 1.9%
Jan 31 08:30 Employment Cost Index Q4 0.9% 1.0% 1.0%
Jan 31 09:45 Chicago PMI Jan 52.0 52.0 51.6
Jan 31 10:00 Construction Spending Dec -0.2% 0.0% -0.2%
Jan 31 10:30 Crude Inventories 01/26 NA NA 789K
Jan 31 14:15 FOMC policy statement
Feb 01 08:30 Personal Income Dec 0.5% 0.5% 0.3%
Feb 01 08:30 Personal Spending Dec 0.7% 0.7% 0.5%
Feb 01 08:30 Initial Claims 01/27 315K 318K 325K
Feb 01 10:00 ISM Index Jan 52.0 51.5 51.4
Feb 01 17:00 Auto Sales Jan 5.4M 5.4M 5.6M
Feb 01 17:00 Truck Sales Jan 7.3M 7.4M 7.2M
Feb 02 08:30 Nonfarm Payrolls Jan 135K 150K 167K
Feb 02 08:30 Unemployment Rate Jan 4.5% 4.5% 4.5%
Feb 02 08:30 Hourly Earnings Jan 0.2% 0.3% 0.5%
Feb 02 08:30 Average Workweek Jan 33.9 33.9 33.9
Feb 02 10:00 Factory Orders Dec 2.0% 1.5% 0.9%
Feb 02 10:00 Mich Sentiment-Rev. Jan 98.0 97.8 98.0

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

EUR/USD

Weekly Trend direction: Bearish

Weekly trend reversal level: 1.3050

Resistance levels: 1.3050

Strategy: Whilst below the weekly trend reversal level, sell rallies to resistance after an entry signal.

Medium term: The euro has broken above the large flag formation which has dominated the technical picture in 2006. Now, whilst above 1.2900 (1.2800 max), the euro remains in an uptrend which is heading back towards 1.3600, the multi-year high, and possibly higher still, towards 1.4100.

Today: A bit more lively, and back to the top of the range of the past few weeks at 1.3040. It looks as though we will move through here before the weekend, which will turn the weekly charts bullish and should spark a move to the next level at 1.3150. As there is a lot of important data this week, ending with the NFP and Michigan Sent. on Friday, we need to be cautious about picking a direction. The way this week finally closes should set the trend for February, so it is a case of "wait and see" until then. For today, either try small shorts on signs of topping at 1.3040 (there are no signs yet) or stay out of the market.

EUR/USD Hourly chart:

 

[forex618]

Forex618.net Daily Currency report for Monday February 05 2007

This is only a guide. Please refer to our specific entry signals for exact entries and stops.

This Week's Economic Calendar
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised From
Feb 05 10:00 ISM Services Jan 56.0 57.0 56.7
Feb 07 08:30 Productivity-Prel Q4 1.5% 1.7% 0.2%
Feb 07 10:30 Crude Inventories 02/02 NA NA 2684K
Feb 07 15:00 Consumer Credit Dec $8.0B $6.5B $12.3B
Feb 08 08:30 Initial Claims 02/03 310K 310K 307K
Feb 08 10:00 Wholesale Inventories Dec 0.7% 0.6% 1.3%

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

EUR/USD

Weekly Trend direction: Bullish

Weekly trend reversal level: 1.2860

Support levels: 1.2920, 1.2880, 1.2866

Strategy: Whilst above the weekly trend reversal level, buy dips to support after an entry signal.

Medium term: The euro has broken above the large flag formation which has dominated the technical picture in 2006. Now, whilst above 1.2900 (1.2800 max), the euro remains in an uptrend which is heading back towards 1.3600, the multi-year high, and possibly higher still, towards 1.4100.

Today: Now entering the 5th week in the same 1.2860 - 1.3060 range. Very good for range traders with a 200 pip corridor, but frustrating for trend traders. Momentum is marginally bullish, and good support lies between 1.2920 and 1.2880, so we expect the euro to attempt to base in this area. As yet, there are no signs of that happening, so we shall have to be patient and watch for a reversal pattern to develop. When that happens, buy at the support zone, targeting 1.3020, and eventually, a break above there towards 1.3100 and 1.3300. A daily close below 1.2800 will postpone all of this and probably lead to a drop to below 1.2700.

EUR/USD Hourly chart:



EUR/USD Weekly chart:

 

[forex618]

Forex618.net Daily Currency report for Tuesday February 06 2007

This is only a guide. Please refer to our specific entry signals for exact entries and stops.

This Week's Economic Calendar
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised From
Feb 05 10:00 ISM Services Jan 56.0 57.0 56.7
Feb 07 08:30 Productivity-Prel Q4 1.5% 1.7% 0.2%
Feb 07 10:30 Crude Inventories 02/02 NA NA 2684K
Feb 07 15:00 Consumer Credit Dec $8.0B $6.5B $12.3B
Feb 08 08:30 Initial Claims 02/03 310K 310K 307K
Feb 08 10:00 Wholesale Inventories Dec 0.7% 0.6% 1.3%

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

EUR/USD

Weekly Trend direction: Bullish

Weekly trend reversal level: 1.2860

Support levels: 1.2920, 1.2880, 1.2866

Strategy: Whilst above the weekly trend reversal level, buy dips to support after an entry signal.

Medium term: The euro has broken above the large flag formation which has dominated the technical picture in 2006. Now, whilst above 1.2900 (1.2800 max), the euro remains in an uptrend which is heading back towards 1.3600, the multi-year high, and possibly higher still, towards 1.4100.

Today: Slightly lower than yesterday, but no change to the picture at all. Now entering the 5th week in the same 1.2860 - 1.3060 range. Very good for range traders with a 200 pip corridor, but frustrating for trend traders. Momentum is marginally bullish, and good support lies between 1.2920 and 1.2880, so we expect the euro to attempt to base in this area. As yet, there are no signs of that happening, so we shall have to be patient and watch for a reversal pattern to develop. When that happens, buy at the support zone, targeting 1.3020, and eventually, a break above there towards 1.3100 and 1.3300. A daily close below 1.2800 will postpone all of this and probably lead to a drop to below 1.2700.

EUR/USD Hourly chart:

 

[forex618]

Forex618.net Daily Currency report for Wednesday February 07 2007

This is only a guide. Please refer to our specific entry signals for exact entries and stops.

This Week's Economic Calendar
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised From
Feb 05 10:00 ISM Services Jan 56.0 57.0 56.7
Feb 07 08:30 Productivity-Prel Q4 1.5% 1.7% 0.2%
Feb 07 10:30 Crude Inventories 02/02 NA NA 2684K
Feb 07 15:00 Consumer Credit Dec $8.0B $6.5B $12.3B
Feb 08 08:30 Initial Claims 02/03 310K 310K 307K
Feb 08 10:00 Wholesale Inventories Dec 0.7% 0.6% 1.3%

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

EUR/USD

Weekly Trend direction: Bullish

Weekly trend reversal level: 1.2860

Support levels: 1.2920, 1.2880, 1.2866

Strategy: Whilst above the weekly trend reversal level, buy dips to support after an entry signal.

Medium term: The euro has broken above the large flag formation which has dominated the technical picture in 2006. Now, whilst above 1.2900 (1.2800 max), the euro remains in an uptrend which is heading back towards 1.3600, the multi-year high, and possibly higher still, towards 1.4100.

Today: Back to 1.2990, recovering 50% of the post NFP decline, and right in the middle of the range of the past 5 weeks (roughly 1.3050 - 1.2850). Short term momentum is still bullish, but risk and reward are not well matched right now. Continue to buy dips, whilst above 1.2860, but be aware that this range will break soon, and it is by no means clear which way. A daily close below 1.2800 will probably lead to a drop to below 1.2700, whereas a close above 1.3050 is needed to send the euro higher towards 1.3150 and then 1.3300.

EUR/USD Hourly chart:

 

[forex618]

Forex618.net Daily Currency report for Thursday February 08 2007

This is only a guide. Please refer to our specific entry signals for exact entries and stops.


This Week's Economic Calendar
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised From
Feb 05 10:00 ISM Services Jan 56.0 57.0 56.7
Feb 07 08:30 Productivity-Prel Q4 1.5% 1.7% 0.2%
Feb 07 10:30 Crude Inventories 02/02 NA NA 2684K
Feb 07 15:00 Consumer Credit Dec $8.0B $6.5B $12.3B
Feb 08 08:30 Initial Claims 02/03 310K 310K 307K
Feb 08 10:00 Wholesale Inventories Dec 0.7% 0.6% 1.3%

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

EUR/USD

Weekly Trend direction: Bullish

Weekly trend reversal level: 1.2860

Support levels: 1.2920, 1.2880, 1.2866

Strategy: Whilst above the weekly trend reversal level, buy dips to support after an entry signal.

Medium term: The euro has broken above the large flag formation which has dominated the technical picture in 2006. Now, whilst above 1.2900 (1.2800 max), the euro remains in an uptrend which is heading back towards 1.3600, the multi-year high, and possibly higher still, towards 1.4100.

Today: Slightly higher at 1.3020, but little changed from yesterday and right in the middle of the range of the past 5 weeks (roughly 1.3050 - 1.2850). Trading the euro at the moment is a bit like watching paint dry, so be prepared for an explosive move soon. Short term momentum is still bullish, but risk and reward are not well matched right now. No change to the strategy - continue to buy dips, whilst above 1.2860, but be aware that this range will break soon, and it is by no means clear which way. A daily close below 1.2800 will probably lead to a drop to below 1.2700, whereas a close above 1.3050 is needed to send the euro higher towards 1.3150 and then 1.3300.

EUR/USD Hourly chart:

 

[forex618]

Forex618.net Daily Currency report for Friday February 09 2007

This is only a guide. Please refer to our specific entry signals for exact entries and stops.


This Week's Economic Calendar
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised From
Feb 05 10:00 ISM Services Jan 56.0 57.0 56.7
Feb 07 08:30 Productivity-Prel Q4 1.5% 1.7% 0.2%
Feb 07 10:30 Crude Inventories 02/02 NA NA 2684K
Feb 07 15:00 Consumer Credit Dec $8.0B $6.5B $12.3B
Feb 08 08:30 Initial Claims 02/03 310K 310K 307K
Feb 08 10:00 Wholesale Inventories Dec 0.7% 0.6% 1.3%

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

EUR/USD

Weekly Trend direction: Bullish

Weekly trend reversal level: 1.2860

Support levels: 1.2920, 1.2880, 1.2866

Strategy: Whilst above the weekly trend reversal level, buy dips to support after an entry signal.

Medium term: The euro has broken above the large flag formation which has dominated the technical picture in 2006. Now, whilst above 1.2900 (1.2800 max), the euro remains in an uptrend which is heading back towards 1.3600, the multi-year high, and possibly higher still, towards 1.4100.

Today: Surprisingly docile compared to its counterparts yesterday, the euro ended up moving 20 pips higher by the end of the day, so very little has changed. No change to the strategy - continue to buy dips, whilst above 1.2860, but be aware that this range will break soon, and it is by no means clear which way. A daily close below 1.2800 will probably lead to a drop to below 1.2700, whereas a close above 1.3050 is needed to send the euro higher towards 1.3150 and then 1.3300.

EUR/USD Hourly chart:



EUR/USD Weekly chart:




--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

GBP/USD

Weekly Trend direction: Bearish

Weekly trend reversal level: 1.9750

Resistance levels: 1.9700, 1.9750

Strategy: Whilst above the weekly trend reversal level, sell rallies to resistance levels after an entry signal.

Medium term: The trend remains bullish whilst above roughly 1.9200, but it is becoming mature and our medium term target is possibly 2.0000. As we approach the BIG figure at 2.0000 and indicators become extremely overbought, great caution is required, as swings both ways may be huge, random and very fast.

Today: The large move came as expected, and the pound plunged almost 200 pips to 1.9545, a fraction below trend line support, but just reaching the previous daily low from the end of January. A small "spike low" on hourly charts and a classical G7 entry ( www.forex-science.com ) makes it quite likely that we have a new bottom in place, but we can't rule out a test of 1.9500, and even 1.9400 next week before we move higher again. For today, hold longs from around the 1.9570 mark, with stops below 1.9540. Be ready to re-buy on a further drop to above mentioned levels - only on signs of basing. There is no sense in trying to "catch a falling knife", especially when the pound is in a nasty mood!

GBP/USD Hourly chart:

 

[forex618]

Forex618.net Daily Currency report for Monday February 12 2007

This is only a guide. Please refer to our specific entry signals for exact entries and stops.

This Week's Economic Calendar
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised From
Feb 12 14:00 Treasury Budget Jan $40.0B $40.0B $21.0B
Feb 13 08:30 Trade Balance Dec -$59.7B -$59.5B -$58.2B
Feb 14 08:30 Retail Sales Jan 0.5% 0.3% 0.9%
Feb 14 08:30 Retail Sales ex-auto Jan 0.6% 0.3% 1.0%
Feb 14 10:00 Business Inventories Dec -0.1% 0.4% 0.4%
Feb 14 10:30 Crude Inventories 02/09 NA NA -449K
Feb 15 08:30 Export Prices ex-ag. Jan NA NA 0.5%
Feb 15 08:30 Import Prices ex-oil Jan NA NA 0.4%
Feb 15 08:30 Initial Claims 02/10 310K NA 311K
Feb 15 08:30 NY Empire State Index Feb 10.0 11.0 9.1
Feb 15 09:00 Net Foreign Purchases Dec $60.0B $68.4B
Feb 15 09:15 Industrial Production Jan 0.1% 0.0% 0.4%
Feb 15 09:15 Capacity Utilization Jan 81.7% 81.7% 81.8%
Feb 15 12:00 Philadelphia Fed Feb 2.0 5.0 8.3
Feb 16 08:30 Housing Starts Jan 1590K 1610K 1642K
Feb 16 08:30 Building Permits Jan 1570K 1590K 1613K
Feb 16 08:30 PPI Jan -0.6% -0.6% 0.9%
Feb 16 08:30 Core PPI Jan 0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
Feb 16 10:00 Mich Sentiment-Prel. Feb 97.5 97.0 96.9

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

EUR/USD

Weekly Trend direction: Bullish

Weekly trend reversal level: 1.2900

Support levels: 1.2980, 1.2920

Strategy: Whilst above the weekly trend reversal level, buy dips to support after an entry signal.

Medium term: The euro has broken above the large flag formation which has dominated the technical picture in 2006. Now, whilst above 1.2900 (1.2800 max), the euro remains in an uptrend which is heading back towards 1.3600, the multi-year high, and possibly higher still, towards 1.4100.

Today: Another week has passed and we have remained within the 1.2900-1.3050 range. Until this breaks, nothing changes, although the longer we stay in this pattern, the more likely it is that we will break higher. Note the "rounded bottom" forming on daily and weekly charts, which also lends a bit more bias towards the upside. No change to the strategy - continue to buy dips, whilst above 1.2860, keeping tight stops and being ready to hold for a significant rally. A daily close below 1.2800 will probably lead to a drop to below 1.2700, whereas a close above 1.3050 is needed to send the euro higher towards 1.3150 and then 1.3300.

EUR/USD Hourly chart:



EUR/USD Weekly chart:

 

[forex618]

Forex618.net Daily Currency report for Tuesday February 13 2007

This is only a guide. Please refer to our specific entry signals for exact entries and stops.

This Week's Economic Calendar
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised From
Feb 12 14:00 Treasury Budget Jan $40.0B $40.0B $21.0B
Feb 13 08:30 Trade Balance Dec -$59.7B -$59.5B -$58.2B
Feb 14 08:30 Retail Sales Jan 0.5% 0.3% 0.9%
Feb 14 08:30 Retail Sales ex-auto Jan 0.6% 0.3% 1.0%
Feb 14 10:00 Business Inventories Dec -0.1% 0.4% 0.4%
Feb 14 10:30 Crude Inventories 02/09 NA NA -449K
Feb 15 08:30 Export Prices ex-ag. Jan NA NA 0.5%
Feb 15 08:30 Import Prices ex-oil Jan NA NA 0.4%
Feb 15 08:30 Initial Claims 02/10 310K NA 311K
Feb 15 08:30 NY Empire State Index Feb 10.0 11.0 9.1
Feb 15 09:00 Net Foreign Purchases Dec $60.0B $68.4B
Feb 15 09:15 Industrial Production Jan 0.1% 0.0% 0.4%
Feb 15 09:15 Capacity Utilization Jan 81.7% 81.7% 81.8%
Feb 15 12:00 Philadelphia Fed Feb 2.0 5.0 8.3
Feb 16 08:30 Housing Starts Jan 1590K 1610K 1642K
Feb 16 08:30 Building Permits Jan 1570K 1590K 1613K
Feb 16 08:30 PPI Jan -0.6% -0.6% 0.9%
Feb 16 08:30 Core PPI Jan 0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
Feb 16 10:00 Mich Sentiment-Prel. Feb 97.5 97.0 96.9

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

EUR/USD

Weekly Trend direction: Bullish

Weekly trend reversal level: 1.2900

Support levels: 1.2980, 1.2920

Strategy: Whilst above the weekly trend reversal level, buy dips to support after an entry signal.

Medium term: The euro has broken above the large flag formation which has dominated the technical picture in 2006. Now, whilst above 1.2900 (1.2800 max), the euro remains in an uptrend which is heading back towards 1.3600, the multi-year high, and possibly higher still, towards 1.4100.

Today: the euro has dropped slightly to 1.2950, now roughly in the middle of the range which has prevailed for 5 weeks and at the 61.8% retracement level from the low to the high. Unfortunately, this means that swings could still go either way and and trade ideas are close to a 50/50 bet. However, weekly momentum remains just bullish and support levels are easily recognised at 1.2950, 1.2900 and the major range bottom at 1.2880. For today, we will continue with the same strategy of buying dips at these levels, with tight stops and only on clear sins of basing. We need to break above 1.3050 to begin the next significant rally, but a drop below 1.2880 (look at daily charts for the possible "bearish flag") will probably lead to a sharp decline towards 1.2820 and possibly even lower to 1.2650.

EUR/USD Hourly chart: