Forex618 Daily Currency report

[forex618]

Forex618.net Daily Currency report for Wednesday February 14 2007

This is only a guide. Please refer to our specific entry signals for exact entries and stops.

This Week's Economic Calendar
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised From
Feb 12 14:00 Treasury Budget Jan $40.0B $40.0B $21.0B
Feb 13 08:30 Trade Balance Dec -$59.7B -$59.5B -$58.2B
Feb 14 08:30 Retail Sales Jan 0.5% 0.3% 0.9%
Feb 14 08:30 Retail Sales ex-auto Jan 0.6% 0.3% 1.0%
Feb 14 10:00 Business Inventories Dec -0.1% 0.4% 0.4%
Feb 14 10:30 Crude Inventories 02/09 NA NA -449K
Feb 15 08:30 Export Prices ex-ag. Jan NA NA 0.5%
Feb 15 08:30 Import Prices ex-oil Jan NA NA 0.4%
Feb 15 08:30 Initial Claims 02/10 310K NA 311K
Feb 15 08:30 NY Empire State Index Feb 10.0 11.0 9.1
Feb 15 09:00 Net Foreign Purchases Dec $60.0B $68.4B
Feb 15 09:15 Industrial Production Jan 0.1% 0.0% 0.4%
Feb 15 09:15 Capacity Utilization Jan 81.7% 81.7% 81.8%
Feb 15 12:00 Philadelphia Fed Feb 2.0 5.0 8.3
Feb 16 08:30 Housing Starts Jan 1590K 1610K 1642K
Feb 16 08:30 Building Permits Jan 1570K 1590K 1613K
Feb 16 08:30 PPI Jan -0.6% -0.6% 0.9%
Feb 16 08:30 Core PPI Jan 0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
Feb 16 10:00 Mich Sentiment-Prel. Feb 97.5 97.0 96.9

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

EUR/USD

Weekly Trend direction: Bullish

Weekly trend reversal level: 1.2900

Support levels: 1.2980, 1.2920

Strategy: Whilst above the weekly trend reversal level, buy dips to support after an entry signal.

Medium term: The euro has broken above the large flag formation which has dominated the technical picture in 2006. Now, whilst above 1.2900 (1.2800 max), the euro remains in an uptrend which is heading back towards 1.3600, the multi-year high, and possibly higher still, towards 1.4100.

Today: A bounce from 1.2950 yesterday has set the euro up with a daily close above 1.3000 and a chance to re-attack the 1.3050 resistance level. as the period of consolidation has been so prolonged, as and when we break higher, the move could be surprisingly powerful, with short term targets set at 1.3150, and then up as high as 1.3300 fairly soon. Today, hopefully dips will hold above 1.3000/1.2980 with the break higher later in the day. Below 1.2950 sees us slump back into the same 5 week range and will send most people back to sleep. Hold long positions, or buy dips to 1.2908/1.3000, stops below 1.2950.

EUR/USD Hourly chart:

 

[forex618]

Daily Currency report for Thursday February 15 2007

This is only a guide. Please refer to our specific entry signals for exact entries and stops.

This Week's Economic Calendar
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised From
Feb 12 14:00 Treasury Budget Jan $40.0B $40.0B $21.0B
Feb 13 08:30 Trade Balance Dec -$59.7B -$59.5B -$58.2B
Feb 14 08:30 Retail Sales Jan 0.5% 0.3% 0.9%
Feb 14 08:30 Retail Sales ex-auto Jan 0.6% 0.3% 1.0%
Feb 14 10:00 Business Inventories Dec -0.1% 0.4% 0.4%
Feb 14 10:30 Crude Inventories 02/09 NA NA -449K
Feb 15 08:30 Export Prices ex-ag. Jan NA NA 0.5%
Feb 15 08:30 Import Prices ex-oil Jan NA NA 0.4%
Feb 15 08:30 Initial Claims 02/10 310K NA 311K
Feb 15 08:30 NY Empire State Index Feb 10.0 11.0 9.1
Feb 15 09:00 Net Foreign Purchases Dec $60.0B $68.4B
Feb 15 09:15 Industrial Production Jan 0.1% 0.0% 0.4%
Feb 15 09:15 Capacity Utilization Jan 81.7% 81.7% 81.8%
Feb 15 12:00 Philadelphia Fed Feb 2.0 5.0 8.3
Feb 16 08:30 Housing Starts Jan 1590K 1610K 1642K
Feb 16 08:30 Building Permits Jan 1570K 1590K 1613K
Feb 16 08:30 PPI Jan -0.6% -0.6% 0.9%
Feb 16 08:30 Core PPI Jan 0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
Feb 16 10:00 Mich Sentiment-Prel. Feb 97.5 97.0 96.9

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

EUR/USD

Weekly Trend direction: Bullish

Weekly trend reversal level: 1.2900

Support levels: 1.3050, 1.3000, 1.2950

Strategy: Whilst above the weekly trend reversal level, buy dips to support after an entry signal.

Medium term: The euro has broken above the large flag formation which has dominated the technical picture in 2006. Now, whilst above 1.2900 (1.2800 max), the euro remains in an uptrend which is heading back towards 1.3600, the multi-year high, and possibly higher still, towards 1.4100.

Today: Finally breaking out of the range above 1.3050, but we could have done a little better. Now support should be at the breakout price and we expect the euro to continue higher whilst above there. Today, buy dips to 1.3050/60, stops below 1.3020. First target is 1.3150 and then 1.3300.

EUR/USD Hourly chart:



EUR/USD Weekly chart:

 

[forex618]

Forex618.net Daily Currency report for Friday February 16 2007

This is only a guide. Please refer to our specific entry signals for exact entries and stops.


This Week's Economic Calendar
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised From
Feb 12 14:00 Treasury Budget Jan $40.0B $40.0B $21.0B
Feb 13 08:30 Trade Balance Dec -$59.7B -$59.5B -$58.2B
Feb 14 08:30 Retail Sales Jan 0.5% 0.3% 0.9%
Feb 14 08:30 Retail Sales ex-auto Jan 0.6% 0.3% 1.0%
Feb 14 10:00 Business Inventories Dec -0.1% 0.4% 0.4%
Feb 14 10:30 Crude Inventories 02/09 NA NA -449K
Feb 15 08:30 Export Prices ex-ag. Jan NA NA 0.5%
Feb 15 08:30 Import Prices ex-oil Jan NA NA 0.4%
Feb 15 08:30 Initial Claims 02/10 310K NA 311K
Feb 15 08:30 NY Empire State Index Feb 10.0 11.0 9.1
Feb 15 09:00 Net Foreign Purchases Dec $60.0B $68.4B
Feb 15 09:15 Industrial Production Jan 0.1% 0.0% 0.4%
Feb 15 09:15 Capacity Utilization Jan 81.7% 81.7% 81.8%
Feb 15 12:00 Philadelphia Fed Feb 2.0 5.0 8.3
Feb 16 08:30 Housing Starts Jan 1590K 1610K 1642K
Feb 16 08:30 Building Permits Jan 1570K 1590K 1613K
Feb 16 08:30 PPI Jan -0.6% -0.6% 0.9%
Feb 16 08:30 Core PPI Jan 0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
Feb 16 10:00 Mich Sentiment-Prel. Feb 97.5 97.0 96.9

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

EUR/USD

Weekly Trend direction: Bullish

Weekly trend reversal level: 1.2900

Support levels: 1.3050, 1.3000, 1.2950

Strategy: Whilst above the weekly trend reversal level, buy dips to support after an entry signal.

Medium term: The euro has broken above the large flag formation which has dominated the technical picture in 2006. Now, whilst above 1.2900 (1.2800 max), the euro remains in an uptrend which is heading back towards 1.3600, the multi-year high, and possibly higher still, towards 1.4100.

Today: Very little change from yesterday as we hold nicely at the new breakout level and give little back to the market. There is still a chance that we may dip back to 1.3050, and even 1.3000, but this is becoming less likely, the longer we hold above 1.3100. Today, buy dips to 1.3050/60, stops below 1.3020. First target is 1.3150 and then 1.3300.

EUR/USD Hourly chart:

 

[forex618]

Forex618.net Daily Currency report for Monday February 19 2007

This is only a guide. Please refer to our specific entry signals for exact entries and stops.

This Week's Economic Calendar
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised From
Feb 21 08:30 CPI Jan 0.2% 0.1% 0.4%
Feb 21 08:30 Core CPI Jan 0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Feb 21 10:00 Leading Indicators Jan 0.3% 0.2% 0.3%
Feb 21 10:30 Crude Inventories 02/16 NA NA -589K
Feb 21 14:00 FOMC Minutes Jan 31
Feb 22 08:30 Initial Claims 02/17 320K 325K 357K
Feb 22 10:00 Help-Wanted Index Jan 33 34 33

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

EUR/USD

Weekly Trend direction: Bullish

Weekly trend reversal level: 1.2940

Support levels: 1.3090, 1.3050, 1.3000, 1.2950

Strategy: Whilst above the weekly trend reversal level, buy dips to support after an entry signal.

Medium term: The euro has broken above the large flag formation which has dominated the technical picture in 2006. Now, whilst above 1.2900 (1.2800 max), the euro remains in an uptrend which is heading back towards 1.3600, the multi-year high, and possibly higher still, towards 1.4100.

Today: The end of last week was a quiet period for the euro, whilst the other major currencies were somewhat more volatile and unpredictable. We have managed to hold very neatly above 1.3100, with a small "gap" higher over the weekend to 1.3155. We feel that the euro will try to use this good start to the week to rally further and confirm that we have indeed broken out from the recent range into a new bullish period. There is weekly 61.8% Fibonacci resistance just above at 1.3177, so we will continue to allow for dips to 1.3050 (and possibly even 1.2950) before we really get moving higher. Today, hold longs from 1.3100, with stops tightened, or continue to buy dips whilst above 1.2950/1.3000

EUR/USD Hourly chart:



EUR/USD Weekly chart:

 

[forex618]

Forex618.net Daily currency report

EUR/USD

Weekly Trend direction: Bullish

Weekly trend reversal level: 1.2940

Support levels: 1.3090, 1.3050, 1.3000, 1.2950

Strategy: Whilst above the weekly trend reversal level, buy dips to support after an entry signal.

Medium term: The euro has broken above the large flag formation which has dominated the technical picture in 2006. Now, whilst above 1.2900 (1.2800 max), the euro remains in an uptrend which is heading back towards 1.3600, the multi-year high, and possibly higher still, towards 1.4100.

Today: We are edging higher - not giving much up to the downside, but not moving higher with much momentum. We need to push through 1.3180/1.3200 today (plus a daily close above there) to attract more momentum buyers, so until that happens, the scenario remains very much the same as yesterday: There is weekly 61.8% Fibonacci resistance just above at 1.3177, so we will continue to allow for dips to 1.3050 (and possibly even 1.2950) before we really get moving higher. Today, hold longs from 1.3100, with stops tightened, or continue to buy dips whilst above 1.2950/1.3000

EUR/USD Hourly chart:



EUR/USD Weekly chart:

 

[forex618]

Forex618.net Daily Currency report for Wednesday February 21 2007

This is only a guide. Please refer to our specific entry signals for exact entries and stops.

This Week's Economic Calendar
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised From
Feb 21 08:30 CPI Jan 0.2% 0.1% 0.4%
Feb 21 08:30 Core CPI Jan 0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Feb 21 10:00 Leading Indicators Jan 0.3% 0.2% 0.3%
Feb 21 10:30 Crude Inventories 02/16 NA NA -589K
Feb 21 14:00 FOMC Minutes Jan 31
Feb 22 08:30 Initial Claims 02/17 320K 325K 357K
Feb 22 10:00 Help-Wanted Index Jan 33 34 33

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

EUR/USD

Weekly Trend direction: Bullish

Weekly trend reversal level: 1.2940

Support levels: 1.3090, 1.3050, 1.3000, 1.2950

Strategy: Whilst above the weekly trend reversal level, buy dips to support after an entry signal.

Medium term: The euro has broken above the large flag formation which has dominated the technical picture in 2006. Now, whilst above 1.2900 (1.2800 max), the euro remains in an uptrend which is heading back towards 1.3600, the multi-year high, and possibly higher still, towards 1.4100.

Today: Again little changed as we move aimlessly around in a 60 point range. The longer we consolidate here the better the chance we will continue higher, but we will have to allow for a "spike" below the range first. We need to push through 1.3180/1.3200 today (plus a daily close above there) to attract more momentum buyers, so until that happens, the scenario remains very much the same as yesterday: There is weekly 61.8% Fibonacci resistance just above at 1.3177, so we will continue to allow for dips to 1.3050 (and possibly even 1.2950) before we really get moving higher. Today, hold longs from 1.3100, with stops tightened, or continue to buy dips whilst above 1.2950/1.3000

EUR/USD Hourly chart:



EUR/USD Weekly chart:

 

[forex618]

Forex618.net Daily Currency report for Friday February 23 2007

This is only a guide. Please refer to our specific entry signals for exact entries and stops.

This Week's Economic Calendar
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised From
Feb 21 08:30 CPI Jan 0.2% 0.1% 0.4%
Feb 21 08:30 Core CPI Jan 0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Feb 21 10:00 Leading Indicators Jan 0.3% 0.2% 0.3%
Feb 21 10:30 Crude Inventories 02/16 NA NA -589K
Feb 21 14:00 FOMC Minutes Jan 31
Feb 22 08:30 Initial Claims 02/17 320K 325K 357K
Feb 22 10:00 Help-Wanted Index Jan 33 34 33

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

EUR/USD

Weekly Trend direction: Bullish

Weekly trend reversal level: 1.2940

Support levels: 1.3090, 1.3050, 1.3000, 1.2950

Strategy: Whilst above the weekly trend reversal level, buy dips to support after an entry signal.

Medium term: The euro has broken above the large flag formation which has dominated the technical picture in 2006. Now, whilst above 1.2900 (1.2800 max), the euro remains in an uptrend which is heading back towards 1.3600, the multi-year high, and possibly higher still, towards 1.4100.

Today: A brief spike to 1.3080 came as expected, and may just be the spark we needed to break the deadlock. The picture remains the same: We need to push through 1.3180/1.3200 today (plus a daily close above there) to attract more momentum buyers. There is weekly 61.8% Fibonacci resistance just above at 1.3177, so we will continue to allow for dips to 1.3050 (and possibly even 1.2950) before we really get moving higher. Today, hold longs from 1.3100, with stops tightened, or continue to buy dips whilst above 1.2950/1.3000

EUR/USD Hourly chart:



EUR/USD Weekly chart:

 

[forex618]

Forex618.net Daily Currency report for Monday February 26 2007

This is only a guide. Please refer to our specific entry signals for exact entries and stops.

This Week's Economic Calendar
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised From
Feb 27 08:30 Durable Orders Jan -3.0% -2.0% 2.9%
Feb 27 10:00 Consumer Confidence Feb 109.5 109.0 110.3
Feb 27 10:00 Existing Home Sales Jan 6.30M 6.24M 6.22M
Feb 28 08:30 GDP-Prel. Q4 2.5% 2.3% 3.5%
Feb 28 08:30 Chain Deflator-Prel. Q4 1.5% 1.5% 1.5%
Feb 28 09:45 Chicago PMI Feb 50.0 50.0 48.8
Feb 28 10:00 New Home Sales Jan 1085K 1090K 1120K
Feb 28 10:30 Crude Inventories 02/23 NA NA 3694K
Mar 01 08:30 Personal Income Jan 0.3% 0.3% 0.5%
Mar 01 08:30 Personal Spending Jan 0.4% 0.4% 0.7%
Mar 01 08:30 Initial Claims 02/24 325K NA 332K
Mar 01 10:00 Construction Spending Jan -0.2% -0.4% -0.4%
Mar 01 10:00 ISM Index Feb 50.5 50.0 49.3
Mar 01 17:00 Auto Sales Feb 5.1M 5.1M 5.2M
Mar 01 17:00 Truck Sales Feb 7.2M 7.3M 7.5M
Mar 02 10:00 Mich Sentiment-Rev. Feb 93.3 94.0 93.3

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

EUR/USD

Weekly Trend direction: Bullish

Weekly trend reversal level: 1.3090

Support levels: 1.3090

Strategy: Whilst above the weekly trend reversal level, buy dips to support after an entry signal.

Medium term: The euro has broken above the large flag formation which has dominated the technical picture in 2006. Now, whilst above 1.2900 (1.2800 max), the euro remains in an uptrend which is heading back towards 1.3600, the multi-year high, and possibly higher still, towards 1.4100.

Today: Finally the euro has broken above the pivotal 1.3080 level, but has yet to gather some serious upside momentum. There is also a danger to bulls that we might be forming a sort of "broadening pattern" on the charts, with a top around 1.3200. This means until we have a daily close above 1.3200, there is an equal danger of a rush higher to 1.3300 or a sudden collapse to 1.3050. For now we will go with the fledgling upwards momentum and continue to buy dips. Support is roughly between 1.3140 and 1.3100. Below here means a visit to 1.3050 is on the cards. Still very tricky trading after a difficult month.

EUR/USD Hourly chart:



EUR/USD Weekly chart:

 

[forex618]

Forex618.net Daily Currency report for Tuesday February 27 2007

This is only a guide. Please refer to our specific entry signals for exact entries and stops.

This Week's Economic Calendar
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised From
Feb 27 08:30 Durable Orders Jan -3.0% -2.0% 2.9%
Feb 27 10:00 Consumer Confidence Feb 109.5 109.0 110.3
Feb 27 10:00 Existing Home Sales Jan 6.30M 6.24M 6.22M
Feb 28 08:30 GDP-Prel. Q4 2.5% 2.3% 3.5%
Feb 28 08:30 Chain Deflator-Prel. Q4 1.5% 1.5% 1.5%
Feb 28 09:45 Chicago PMI Feb 50.0 50.0 48.8
Feb 28 10:00 New Home Sales Jan 1085K 1090K 1120K
Feb 28 10:30 Crude Inventories 02/23 NA NA 3694K
Mar 01 08:30 Personal Income Jan 0.3% 0.3% 0.5%
Mar 01 08:30 Personal Spending Jan 0.4% 0.4% 0.7%
Mar 01 08:30 Initial Claims 02/24 325K NA 332K
Mar 01 10:00 Construction Spending Jan -0.2% -0.4% -0.4%
Mar 01 10:00 ISM Index Feb 50.5 50.0 49.3
Mar 01 17:00 Auto Sales Feb 5.1M 5.1M 5.2M
Mar 01 17:00 Truck Sales Feb 7.2M 7.3M 7.5M
Mar 02 10:00 Mich Sentiment-Rev. Feb 93.3 94.0 93.3

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

EUR/USD

Weekly Trend direction: Bullish

Weekly trend reversal level: 1.3090

Support levels: 1.3090

Strategy: Whilst above the weekly trend reversal level, buy dips to support after an entry signal.

Medium term: The euro has broken above the large flag formation which has dominated the technical picture in 2006. Now, whilst above 1.2900 (1.2800 max), the euro remains in an uptrend which is heading back towards 1.3600, the multi-year high, and possibly higher still, towards 1.4100.

Today: Briefly up to 1.3200 a few hours ago, but really no change. It is pleasing that we have managed to hold above 1.3150, which means that another decent upside attack may be initiated today. However, there is also a danger to bulls that we might be forming a sort of "broadening pattern" on the charts, with a top around 1.3200. This means until we have a daily close above 1.3200, there is an equal danger of a rush higher to 1.3300 or a sudden collapse to 1.3050. For now we will go with the fledgling upwards momentum and continue to buy dips. Support is roughly between 1.3140 and 1.3100. Below here means a visit to 1.3050 is on the cards. Today we will look to hold longs or buy dips to 1.3150/30, stops below 1.3100.

EUR/USD Hourly chart:



EUR/USD Weekly chart:

 

[forex618]

Forex618.net Daily Currency report for Wednesday February 28 2007

This is only a guide. Please refer to our specific entry signals for exact entries and stops.

This Week's Economic Calendar
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised From
Feb 27 08:30 Durable Orders Jan -3.0% -2.0% 2.9%
Feb 27 10:00 Consumer Confidence Feb 109.5 109.0 110.3
Feb 27 10:00 Existing Home Sales Jan 6.30M 6.24M 6.22M
Feb 28 08:30 GDP-Prel. Q4 2.5% 2.3% 3.5%
Feb 28 08:30 Chain Deflator-Prel. Q4 1.5% 1.5% 1.5%
Feb 28 09:45 Chicago PMI Feb 50.0 50.0 48.8
Feb 28 10:00 New Home Sales Jan 1085K 1090K 1120K
Feb 28 10:30 Crude Inventories 02/23 NA NA 3694K
Mar 01 08:30 Personal Income Jan 0.3% 0.3% 0.5%
Mar 01 08:30 Personal Spending Jan 0.4% 0.4% 0.7%
Mar 01 08:30 Initial Claims 02/24 325K NA 332K
Mar 01 10:00 Construction Spending Jan -0.2% -0.4% -0.4%
Mar 01 10:00 ISM Index Feb 50.5 50.0 49.3
Mar 01 17:00 Auto Sales Feb 5.1M 5.1M 5.2M
Mar 01 17:00 Truck Sales Feb 7.2M 7.3M 7.5M
Mar 02 10:00 Mich Sentiment-Rev. Feb 93.3 94.0 93.3

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

EUR/USD

Weekly Trend direction: Bullish

Weekly trend reversal level: 1.3090

Support levels: 1.3190, 1.3160, 1.3100

Strategy: Whilst above the weekly trend reversal level, buy dips to support after an entry signal.

Medium term: The euro has broken above the large flag formation which has dominated the technical picture in 2006. Now, whilst above 1.2900 (1.2800 max), the euro remains in an uptrend which is heading back towards 1.3600, the multi-year high, and possibly higher still, towards 1.4100.

Today: Amidst a turbulent day in many markets, the Euro has been relatively quiet. We have moved up to the weekly 78.6% Fibonacci resistance level at 1.3260 but there is little support from the pound in the rally to push it higher. In addition, downward pressure from the yen crosses has probably helped to keep the euro from punching through. We must now allow for more work in the 1.3100 - 1.3250 corridor, with dips still seen as buying opportunities for a rally to 1.3300. For today, we should get support between 1.3190 and 1.3160. Buy dips to these levels with stops below the reversals.

EUR/USD Hourly chart:



EUR/USD Weekly chart:

 

[forex618]

Forex618.net Daily Currency report for Thursday March 01 2007

This is only a guide. Please refer to our specific entry signals for exact entries and stops.

This Week's Economic Calendar
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised From
Feb 27 08:30 Durable Orders Jan -3.0% -2.0% 2.9%
Feb 27 10:00 Consumer Confidence Feb 109.5 109.0 110.3
Feb 27 10:00 Existing Home Sales Jan 6.30M 6.24M 6.22M
Feb 28 08:30 GDP-Prel. Q4 2.5% 2.3% 3.5%
Feb 28 08:30 Chain Deflator-Prel. Q4 1.5% 1.5% 1.5%
Feb 28 09:45 Chicago PMI Feb 50.0 50.0 48.8
Feb 28 10:00 New Home Sales Jan 1085K 1090K 1120K
Feb 28 10:30 Crude Inventories 02/23 NA NA 3694K
Mar 01 08:30 Personal Income Jan 0.3% 0.3% 0.5%
Mar 01 08:30 Personal Spending Jan 0.4% 0.4% 0.7%
Mar 01 08:30 Initial Claims 02/24 325K NA 332K
Mar 01 10:00 Construction Spending Jan -0.2% -0.4% -0.4%
Mar 01 10:00 ISM Index Feb 50.5 50.0 49.3
Mar 01 17:00 Auto Sales Feb 5.1M 5.1M 5.2M
Mar 01 17:00 Truck Sales Feb 7.2M 7.3M 7.5M
Mar 02 10:00 Mich Sentiment-Rev. Feb 93.3 94.0 93.3

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

EUR/USD

Weekly Trend direction: Bullish

Weekly trend reversal level: 1.3090

Support levels: 1.3190, 1.3160, 1.3100

Strategy: Whilst above the weekly trend reversal level, buy dips to support after an entry signal.

Medium term: The euro has broken above the large flag formation which has dominated the technical picture in 2006. Now, whilst above 1.2900 (1.2800 max), the euro remains in an uptrend which is heading back towards 1.3600, the multi-year high, and possibly higher still, towards 1.4100.

Today: As we enter the last month of the first quarter, it is likely that we will see more direction in the currency markets. This means that a new trend direction should begin to develop this month - probably renewed dollar weakness. We will continue to allow for the euro to have one last look at the downside, probably no lower than 1.3050 - 1.3000, if it must go there, but more likely is a resumption of the bull trend towards 1.3700 from current levels. For today and the rest of this week, we will watch carefully for opportunities to buy euros on convincing dips and clear signs of reversal between 1.3000 and 1.3200. Right now, its a matter of patience and waiting for the right moment.

EUR/USD Hourly chart:



EUR/USD Weekly chart:

 

[forex618]

Forex618.net Daily Currency report for Friday March 2 2007

This is only a guide. Please refer to our specific entry signals for exact entries and stops.

This Week's Economic Calendar
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised From
Feb 27 08:30 Durable Orders Jan -3.0% -2.0% 2.9%
Feb 27 10:00 Consumer Confidence Feb 109.5 109.0 110.3
Feb 27 10:00 Existing Home Sales Jan 6.30M 6.24M 6.22M
Feb 28 08:30 GDP-Prel. Q4 2.5% 2.3% 3.5%
Feb 28 08:30 Chain Deflator-Prel. Q4 1.5% 1.5% 1.5%
Feb 28 09:45 Chicago PMI Feb 50.0 50.0 48.8
Feb 28 10:00 New Home Sales Jan 1085K 1090K 1120K
Feb 28 10:30 Crude Inventories 02/23 NA NA 3694K
Mar 01 08:30 Personal Income Jan 0.3% 0.3% 0.5%
Mar 01 08:30 Personal Spending Jan 0.4% 0.4% 0.7%
Mar 01 08:30 Initial Claims 02/24 325K NA 332K
Mar 01 10:00 Construction Spending Jan -0.2% -0.4% -0.4%
Mar 01 10:00 ISM Index Feb 50.5 50.0 49.3
Mar 01 17:00 Auto Sales Feb 5.1M 5.1M 5.2M
Mar 01 17:00 Truck Sales Feb 7.2M 7.3M 7.5M
Mar 02 10:00 Mich Sentiment-Rev. Feb 93.3 94.0 93.3

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

EUR/USD

Weekly Trend direction: Bullish

Weekly trend reversal level: 1.3090

Support levels: 1.3190, 1.3160, 1.3100

Strategy: Whilst above the weekly trend reversal level, buy dips to support after an entry signal.

Medium term: The euro has broken above the large flag formation which has dominated the technical picture in 2006. Now, whilst above 1.2900 (1.2800 max), the euro remains in an uptrend which is heading back towards 1.3600, the multi-year high, and possibly higher still, towards 1.4100.

Today: The euro dipped slightly to 1.3150 as the yen crosses slipped further yesterday. We have managed to hold here quite well, but the danger of a further slip continues to threaten. We will allow for the euro to have one last look at the downside, probably no lower than 1.3050 - 1.3000, if it must go there, but more likely is a resumption of the bull trend towards 1.3700 from current levels. For today and the rest of this week, we will watch carefully for opportunities to buy euros on convincing dips and clear signs of reversal between 1.3000 and 1.3200, with the first chance to try at 1.3150. Buy near 1.3170, stops below 1.3150, being prepared to re-try lower down.

EUR/USD Hourly chart:



EUR/USD Weekly chart:

 

[forex618]

Forex618.net Daily Currency report for Monday March 5 2007

This is only a guide. Please refer to our specific entry signals for exact entries and stops.

This Week's Economic Calendar
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised From
Mar 05 10:00 ISM Services Feb 57.0 57.5 59.0
Mar 06 08:30 Productivity-Rev. Q4 1.7% 1.7% 3.0%
Mar 06 10:00 Factory Orders Jan -5.0% -4.0% 2.4%
Mar 07 10:30 Crude Inventories 03/02 NA NA 1421K
Mar 07 14:00 Fed's Beige Book
Mar 07 15:00 Consumer Credit Jan $10.0B $7.0B $6.0B
Mar 08 08:30 Initial Claims 03/03 330K 335K 338K
Mar 09 08:30 Nonfarm Payrolls Feb 100K 100K 111K
Mar 09 08:30 Unemployment Rate Feb 4.7% 4.6% 4.6%
Mar 09 08:30 Hourly Earnings Feb 0.4% 0.3% 0.2%
Mar 09 08:30 Average Workweek Feb 33.8 33.8 33.8
Mar 09 08:30 Trade Balance Jan -$59.5B -$60.0B -$61.2B
Mar 09 10:00 Wholesale Inventories Jan 0.1% -0.1% -0.5%

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

EUR/USD

Weekly Trend direction: Bullish

Weekly trend reversal level: 1.3090

Support levels: 1.3100, 1.3080

Strategy: Whilst above the weekly trend reversal level, buy dips to support after an entry signal.

Medium term: The euro has broken above the large flag formation which has dominated the technical picture in 2006. Now, whilst above 1.2900 (1.2800 max), the euro remains in an uptrend which is heading back towards 1.3600, the multi-year high, and possibly higher still, towards 1.4100.

Today: Despite the carnage taking place in other markets (Yen crosses!), the euro has remained relatively stable, holding well above the 1.3100 level and keeping up a bullish tone. This means that our analysis has not changed: We will allow for the euro to have one last look at the downside, probably no lower than 1.3050 - 1.3000, if it must go there, but more likely is a resumption of the bull trend towards 1.3700 from current levels. For today and the rest of this week, we will watch carefully for opportunities to buy euros on convincing dips and clear signs of reversal between 1.3000 and 1.3200. Buy near 1.3100/1.3080, stops below 1.3050.

EUR/USD Hourly chart:



EUR/USD Weekly chart:

 

[forex618]

Forex618.net Daily Currency report for Tuesday March 6 2007

This is only a guide. Please refer to our specific entry signals for exact entries and stops.

This Week's Economic Calendar
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised From
Mar 05 10:00 ISM Services Feb 57.0 57.5 59.0
Mar 06 08:30 Productivity-Rev. Q4 1.7% 1.7% 3.0%
Mar 06 10:00 Factory Orders Jan -5.0% -4.0% 2.4%
Mar 07 10:30 Crude Inventories 03/02 NA NA 1421K
Mar 07 14:00 Fed's Beige Book
Mar 07 15:00 Consumer Credit Jan $10.0B $7.0B $6.0B
Mar 08 08:30 Initial Claims 03/03 330K 335K 338K
Mar 09 08:30 Nonfarm Payrolls Feb 100K 100K 111K
Mar 09 08:30 Unemployment Rate Feb 4.7% 4.6% 4.6%
Mar 09 08:30 Hourly Earnings Feb 0.4% 0.3% 0.2%
Mar 09 08:30 Average Workweek Feb 33.8 33.8 33.8
Mar 09 08:30 Trade Balance Jan -$59.5B -$60.0B -$61.2B
Mar 09 10:00 Wholesale Inventories Jan 0.1% -0.1% -0.5%

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

GBP/USD

Weekly Trend direction: Bearish

Weekly trend reversal level: 1.9680

Resistance levels: 1.9400, 1.9500

Strategy: Whilst above the weekly trend reversal level, sell rallies to resistance levels after an entry signal.

Medium term: The trend remains bullish whilst above roughly 1.9200, but it is becoming mature and our medium term target is possibly 2.0000. As we approach the BIG figure at 2.0000 and indicators become extremely overbought, great caution is required, as swings both ways may be huge, random and very fast. Big overhead resistance from very long term highs lies above between 1.9800 and 2.100, and general dollar weakness supports from underneath. This means we shall have to allow for more of the same for several more weeks or months, and trading will continue to be tricky.

Today: Pushed down relentlessly by the falling GBP/JPY cross rate, the pound touched below 1.9200 for the first time since November 2006. This move will have cleared out many over-optimistic long hands and frightened many onto the sidelines, particularly with the turmoil in other markets. That makes it the perfect opportunity for a new base to form at the important 1.9200 trend reversal level and medium term Fibonacci confluence. Buy dips/hold longs from 1.9230, first target 1.9400, and then 1.9500, where we shall watch for signs of topping and opportunities to sell again. Stops at 1.9170.

GBP/USD Hourly chart:



GBP/USD Weekly chart:

 

[forex618]

Forex618.net Daily Currency report for Monday March 12 2007

This is only a guide. Please refer to our specific entry signals for exact entries and stops.

This Week's Economic Calendar
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised From
Mar 12 14:00 Treasury Budget Feb -$123.0B -$118.0B -$119.2B
Mar 13 08:30 Retail Sales Feb 0.2% 0.3% 0.0%
Mar 13 08:30 Retail Sales ex-auto Feb 0.3% 0.3% 0.3%
Mar 13 10:00 Business Inventories Jan 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
Mar 14 08:30 Current Account Q4 -$204.0B -$203.0B -$225.6B
Mar 14 08:30 Export Prices ex-ag. Feb NA NA 0.3%
Mar 14 08:30 Import Prices ex-oil Feb NA NA 0.0%
Mar 14 10:30 Crude Inventories 03/09 NA NA -4848K
Mar 15 08:30 PPI Feb 0.4% 0.4% -0.6%
Mar 15 08:30 Core PPI Feb 0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
Mar 15 08:30 Initial Claims 03/10 330K NA 328K
Mar 15 08:30 NY Empire State Index Mar 15.0 17.0 24.4
Mar 15 09:00 Net Foreign Purchases Jan $15.6B
Mar 15 12:00 Philadelphia Fed Mar 5.0 4.0 0.6
Mar 16 08:30 CPI Feb 0.2% 0.3% 0.2%
Mar 16 08:30 Core CPI Feb 0.2% 0.2% 0.3%
Mar 16 09:15 Industrial Production Feb 0.3% 0.3% -0.5%
Mar 16 09:15 Capacity Utilization Feb 81.3% 81.3% 81.2%
Mar 16 10:00 Mich Sentiment-Prel. Mar 90.0 90.5 91.3

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

EUR/USD

Weekly Trend direction: Bearish

Weekly trend reversal level: 1.3215

Resistance levels: 1.3160, 1.3200

Strategy: Whilst above the weekly trend reversal level, sell rallies to resistance after an entry signal.

Medium term: The euro has broken above the large flag formation which has dominated the technical picture in 2006. Now, whilst above 1.2900 (1.2800 max), the euro remains in an uptrend which is heading back towards 1.3600, the multi-year high, and possibly higher still, towards 1.4100.

Very little change as we hover between 1.3100 and 1.3200 since the middle of last month. There is a small "head and shoulders" pattern potentially forming on the hourly charts which will place pressure on the downside, but we don't expect it to complete its projected low at around 1.2950 (although not impossible by any means!) We continue to allow for the euro to have one last look at the downside, probably no lower than 1.3050 - 1.3000, if it must go there, but more likely is a resumption of the bull trend towards 1.3700 from current levels. For today and the rest of this week, we will watch carefully for opportunities to buy euros on convincing dips and clear signs of reversal between 1.3000 and 1.3200 (1.2950 max) Buy near 1.3100/1.3080, stops below 1.3050. Alternatively, sell with the current trend around 1.3160 - 1.3200.

EUR/USD Hourly chart:



EUR/USD Weekly chart:

 

[forex618]

Forex618.net Daily Currency report for Tuesday March 13 2007

This is only a guide. Please refer to our specific entry signals for exact entries and stops.

This Week's Economic Calendar
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised From
Mar 12 14:00 Treasury Budget Feb -$123.0B -$118.0B -$119.2B
Mar 13 08:30 Retail Sales Feb 0.2% 0.3% 0.0%
Mar 13 08:30 Retail Sales ex-auto Feb 0.3% 0.3% 0.3%
Mar 13 10:00 Business Inventories Jan 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
Mar 14 08:30 Current Account Q4 -$204.0B -$203.0B -$225.6B
Mar 14 08:30 Export Prices ex-ag. Feb NA NA 0.3%
Mar 14 08:30 Import Prices ex-oil Feb NA NA 0.0%
Mar 14 10:30 Crude Inventories 03/09 NA NA -4848K
Mar 15 08:30 PPI Feb 0.4% 0.4% -0.6%
Mar 15 08:30 Core PPI Feb 0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
Mar 15 08:30 Initial Claims 03/10 330K NA 328K
Mar 15 08:30 NY Empire State Index Mar 15.0 17.0 24.4
Mar 15 09:00 Net Foreign Purchases Jan $15.6B
Mar 15 12:00 Philadelphia Fed Mar 5.0 4.0 0.6
Mar 16 08:30 CPI Feb 0.2% 0.3% 0.2%
Mar 16 08:30 Core CPI Feb 0.2% 0.2% 0.3%
Mar 16 09:15 Industrial Production Feb 0.3% 0.3% -0.5%
Mar 16 09:15 Capacity Utilization Feb 81.3% 81.3% 81.2%
Mar 16 10:00 Mich Sentiment-Prel. Mar 90.0 90.5 91.3

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

EUR/USD

Weekly Trend direction: Bearish

Weekly trend reversal level: 1.3215

Resistance levels: 1.3200

Strategy: Whilst above the weekly trend reversal level, sell rallies to resistance after an entry signal.

Medium term: The euro has broken above the large flag formation which has dominated the technical picture in 2006. Now, whilst above 1.2900 (1.2800 max), the euro remains in an uptrend which is heading back towards 1.3600, the multi-year high, and possibly higher still, towards 1.4100.

Back up to 1.3200, but not out of danger yet. There is a small "head and shoulders" pattern potentially forming on the hourly charts which will place pressure on the downside, but we don't expect it to complete its projected low at around 1.2950 (although not impossible by any means!) We continue to allow for the euro to have one last look at the downside, probably no lower than 1.3050 - 1.3000, if it must go there, but more likely is a resumption of the bull trend towards 1.3700 from current levels. For today and the rest of this week, we will watch carefully for opportunities to buy euros on convincing dips and clear signs of reversal between 1.3000 and 1.3200 (1.2950 max) Buy near 1.3100/1.3080, stops below 1.3050. Alternatively, sell with the current trend around 1.3160 - 1.3200.

EUR/USD Hourly chart:



EUR/USD Weekly chart:

 

[forex618]

Forex618.net Daily Currency report for Wednesday March 14 2007

This is only a guide. Please refer to our specific entry signals for exact entries and stops.

This Week's Economic Calendar
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised From
Mar 12 14:00 Treasury Budget Feb -$123.0B -$118.0B -$119.2B
Mar 13 08:30 Retail Sales Feb 0.2% 0.3% 0.0%
Mar 13 08:30 Retail Sales ex-auto Feb 0.3% 0.3% 0.3%
Mar 13 10:00 Business Inventories Jan 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
Mar 14 08:30 Current Account Q4 -$204.0B -$203.0B -$225.6B
Mar 14 08:30 Export Prices ex-ag. Feb NA NA 0.3%
Mar 14 08:30 Import Prices ex-oil Feb NA NA 0.0%
Mar 14 10:30 Crude Inventories 03/09 NA NA -4848K
Mar 15 08:30 PPI Feb 0.4% 0.4% -0.6%
Mar 15 08:30 Core PPI Feb 0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
Mar 15 08:30 Initial Claims 03/10 330K NA 328K
Mar 15 08:30 NY Empire State Index Mar 15.0 17.0 24.4
Mar 15 09:00 Net Foreign Purchases Jan $15.6B
Mar 15 12:00 Philadelphia Fed Mar 5.0 4.0 0.6
Mar 16 08:30 CPI Feb 0.2% 0.3% 0.2%
Mar 16 08:30 Core CPI Feb 0.2% 0.2% 0.3%
Mar 16 09:15 Industrial Production Feb 0.3% 0.3% -0.5%
Mar 16 09:15 Capacity Utilization Feb 81.3% 81.3% 81.2%
Mar 16 10:00 Mich Sentiment-Prel. Mar 90.0 90.5 91.3

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

EUR/USD

Weekly Trend direction: Bullish

Weekly trend reversal level: 1.3070

Support levels: 1.3150, 1.3100, 1.3070

Strategy: Whilst above the weekly trend reversal level, buy dips to support levels after an entry signal.

Medium term: The euro has broken above the large flag formation which has dominated the technical picture in 2006. Now, whilst above 1.2900 (1.2800 max), the euro remains in an uptrend which is heading back towards 1.3600, the multi-year high, and possibly higher still, towards 1.4100.

Today: We have managed to retrace 78.6% of the euro's previous decline, at 1.3220, and the price is stalling here. As we are not getting any assistance from the pound (although the yen has done particularly well) we may need to wait another day or two before the euro can really get some upward momentum. Until then the strategy remains the same: We continue to allow for the euro to have one last look at the downside, probably no lower than 1.3050 - 1.3000, if it must go there, but more likely is a resumption of the bull trend towards 1.3700 from current levels. For today and the rest of this week, we will watch carefully for opportunities to buy euros on convincing dips and clear signs of reversal between 1.3000 and 1.3200 (1.2950 max) Buy near 1.3100/1.3080, stops below 1.3050.

EUR/USD Hourly chart:



EUR/USD Weekly chart:

 

[forex618]

Forex-Science.com Daily Currency report for Thursday March 15 2007

This is only a guide. Please refer to our specific entry signals for exact entries and stops.

This Week's Economic Calendar
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised From
Mar 12 14:00 Treasury Budget Feb -$123.0B -$118.0B -$119.2B
Mar 13 08:30 Retail Sales Feb 0.2% 0.3% 0.0%
Mar 13 08:30 Retail Sales ex-auto Feb 0.3% 0.3% 0.3%
Mar 13 10:00 Business Inventories Jan 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
Mar 14 08:30 Current Account Q4 -$204.0B -$203.0B -$225.6B
Mar 14 08:30 Export Prices ex-ag. Feb NA NA 0.3%
Mar 14 08:30 Import Prices ex-oil Feb NA NA 0.0%
Mar 14 10:30 Crude Inventories 03/09 NA NA -4848K
Mar 15 08:30 PPI Feb 0.4% 0.4% -0.6%
Mar 15 08:30 Core PPI Feb 0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
Mar 15 08:30 Initial Claims 03/10 330K NA 328K
Mar 15 08:30 NY Empire State Index Mar 15.0 17.0 24.4
Mar 15 09:00 Net Foreign Purchases Jan $15.6B
Mar 15 12:00 Philadelphia Fed Mar 5.0 4.0 0.6
Mar 16 08:30 CPI Feb 0.2% 0.3% 0.2%
Mar 16 08:30 Core CPI Feb 0.2% 0.2% 0.3%
Mar 16 09:15 Industrial Production Feb 0.3% 0.3% -0.5%
Mar 16 09:15 Capacity Utilization Feb 81.3% 81.3% 81.2%
Mar 16 10:00 Mich Sentiment-Prel. Mar 90.0 90.5 91.3

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

EUR/USD

Weekly Trend direction: Bullish

Weekly trend reversal level: 1.3070

Support levels: 1.3180, 1.3160, 1.3100

Strategy: Whilst above the weekly trend reversal level, buy dips to support levels after an entry signal.

Medium term: The euro has broken above the large flag formation which has dominated the technical picture in 2006. Now, whilst above 1.2900 (1.2800 max), the euro remains in an uptrend which is heading back towards 1.3600, the multi-year high, and possibly higher still, towards 1.4100.

Today: Pushing up towards the recent high at 1.3260 and stalling slightly there for now. We expect that the euro will eventually break above here and head towards 1.3500, but we will allow for some back-filling today, and perhaps the rest of this week. Dips should try to hold above 1.3150, so all declines to that sort of area are good opportunities to re-buy euros for another strong rally. Watch for dips and signs of reversal between 1.3180 and 1.3100 today before buying.

EUR/USD Hourly chart:



EUR/USD Weekly chart:

 

[forex618]

Forex-Science.com Daily Currency report for Friday March 16 2007

This Week's Economic Calendar
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised From
Mar 12 14:00 Treasury Budget Feb -$123.0B -$118.0B -$119.2B
Mar 13 08:30 Retail Sales Feb 0.2% 0.3% 0.0%
Mar 13 08:30 Retail Sales ex-auto Feb 0.3% 0.3% 0.3%
Mar 13 10:00 Business Inventories Jan 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
Mar 14 08:30 Current Account Q4 -$204.0B -$203.0B -$225.6B
Mar 14 08:30 Export Prices ex-ag. Feb NA NA 0.3%
Mar 14 08:30 Import Prices ex-oil Feb NA NA 0.0%
Mar 14 10:30 Crude Inventories 03/09 NA NA -4848K
Mar 15 08:30 PPI Feb 0.4% 0.4% -0.6%
Mar 15 08:30 Core PPI Feb 0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
Mar 15 08:30 Initial Claims 03/10 330K NA 328K
Mar 15 08:30 NY Empire State Index Mar 15.0 17.0 24.4
Mar 15 09:00 Net Foreign Purchases Jan $15.6B
Mar 15 12:00 Philadelphia Fed Mar 5.0 4.0 0.6
Mar 16 08:30 CPI Feb 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% Important
Mar 16 08:30 Core CPI Feb 0.2% 0.2% 0.3% Important
Mar 16 09:15 Industrial Production Feb 0.3% 0.3% -0.5%
Mar 16 09:15 Capacity Utilization Feb 81.3% 81.3% 81.2%
Mar 16 10:00 Mich Sentiment-Prel. Mar 90.0 90.5 91.3

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

EUR/USD

Weekly Trend direction: Bullish

Weekly trend reversal level: 1.3070

Strategy: Whilst above the weekly trend reversal level, buy dips to support levels after an entry signal.

Medium term: The euro has broken above the large flag formation which has dominated the technical picture in 2006. Now, whilst above 1.2900 (1.2800 max), the euro remains in an uptrend which is heading back towards 1.3600, the multi-year high, and possibly higher still, towards 1.4100.

Today's trade suggestion: Pushing up higher still and the euro touched interim resistance at 1.3300 a few hours ago. Remember that 1.3370 is the highest price the euro has traded at since two years ago in early 2005, and we are not far from that right now. As 1.3300 is such a key level, we expect that we will either burst through here and make a dash to 1.3370, or drop back a little while the market gets used to the idea that euro strength isn't going away. We favour the latter, and therefore consider dips good buying opportunities. Buy on a clear G7 reversal setup near 1.3250 or 1.3200 at the lowest, with tight stops and a target of 1.3300 and then 1.3370. Longer term, 1.3500 should be reached in the coming days.

Key G7 Support levels: 1.3170, 1.3120

Counter-trend opportunities: Maybe try tiny shorts on signs of topping at 1.3370. Use tight trailing stop loss.

EUR/USD Hourly chart:



EUR/USD Weekly chart:

 

[forex618]

Forex-Science.com Daily Currency report for Monday March 19 2007

This Week's Economic Calendar
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised From
Mar 20 08:30 Housing Starts Feb 1475K 1440K 1408K
Mar 20 08:30 Building Permits Feb 1530K 1560K 1571K
Mar 21 10:30 Crude Inventories 03/16 NA NA 1180K
Mar 21 14:15 FOMC policy statement
Mar 22 08:30 Initial Claims 03/17 320K 325K 318K
Mar 22 10:00 Leading Indicators Feb -0.6% -0.3% 0.1%
Mar 23 10:00 Existing Home Sales Feb 6.30M 6.35M 6.46M

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

EUR/USD

Weekly Trend direction: Bullish

Weekly trend reversal level: 1.3070

Strategy: Whilst above the weekly trend reversal level, buy dips to support levels after an entry signal.

Medium term: The euro has broken above the large flag formation which has dominated the technical picture in 2006. Now, whilst above 1.2900 (1.2800 max), the euro remains in an uptrend which is heading back towards 1.3600, the multi-year high, and possibly higher still, towards 1.4100.

Today's trade suggestion: We pushed up slightly higher on Friday, but without a great deal of conviction. This means that the picture hasn't really changed, and we should still allow for a period of consolidation under 1.3370. Dips should try to hold above 1.3240/50, but may extend to 1.3200/1.3180. Both of these areas are seen as good opportunities to buy euros for another attempt at breaking above 1.3370.

Key G7 Support levels: 1.3250, 1.3200

"Set and forget" entry: Buy 1.3200, stop 1.3165, target 1.3350

Counter-trend opportunities: Maybe try tiny shorts on signs of topping at 1.3370. Use tight trailing stop loss.

EUR/USD Hourly chart:



EUR/USD Weekly chart: