EUR/USD Analysis

Ok as I indicated yesterday I want to try this for a while and see how it goes. Some questions may be pertinent to you at the time others perhaps not. We can always do with a reminder though from time to time

“Hi Chris
Writing to you in desperation! I generally follow James’ G7 system, so entry points have become very clear to me. The part that I’m battling with is when to exit a trade. I’ve had so many instances when I have held on to a trade only to find it turn on me and worst case scenario hit my SL. So now I’m afraid to stay in trades. I always seems to get out of beautiful big winning trades (in hindsight of course!) way too early!
I understand aiming for fibs/ S/R lines etc but still battle to stay in trades and let price go to these areas. As soon as I think the trade is looking dodgy I close it for a small profit only to kick myself later when I see I could have attained 100+ pips. I always trade with a SL and I always set a reasonable and logical TP. How do I know when to let the trade run to TP and when to bail? Another thing……….do you only ever manually close your trades/check your trades at the top of the hour? How do you manage your trades? Please help!!
Trader C.”

My reply was…

Hi C, you must not beat yourself up to much. If you watch James in the charter group, he does this himself all the time – BUT – you don’t notice because he doesn’t mention it. The reason is that, as with predicting anything, one cannot predict an exit anymore then you can predict any other aspect of trading. So, you have to learn to take what you get, as long as you have done your best to figure out the best possible and most logical exit areas, and aimed for those, then there is simply nothing else to do. Whatever ‘actually’ happens during the trade then is not your doing and therefore nothing that you need stress about.
James for example, is comfortable with his trading and understands these variables better then most – so he takes what he gets and moves on – he doesn’t waste any energy on “what if” scenarios.

There are various options available, but it sounds as if you are familiar with most so I won’t go into them, but purely for a reference point think of some of these scenarios and I bet that you can identify with them all.

If you were to use a trailing stop for example – you will find that quite often you are just stopped out by just a few pips by a slightly bigger retrace then normal, and the price does then eventually hit your profit target. If you wait for a retrace and hide behind the next low, then you can quite often find the market actually reverse and you are way down on profit before you realise that maybe that was a reversal candle and so perhaps you should have gotten out at the top near that resistance area. Quite often it simply does not get to the next level at all. More often then not, it does though, and so just take the ones you get and move on from those that you don’t get.

Can you see the conflict? It really is not a science at all. You need to try the various options available to you and then monitor which gives you better results, knowing full well that at times, another strategy might have given more. You need to find the exit strategy that you are most comfortable with and simply stick to that. Or, if you are experienced enough, then depending on the market conditions, you may want to use a different strategy at times under different market conditions. The last point though is not advisable unless you are experienced and quite comfortable with the outcome. If you attempt this too early in your trading career then once again you will find yourself questioning whether that was the right decision at the time – as you are doing now.
Rules are rules and variables are variables – just remember this. There is nothing wrong with placing a 20 pip stop loss today and a 50 pip tomorrow. As long as you have applied your rules of the stop being within the same ‘risk parameters’…in other words if you need a larger stop then adjust your number of lots traded so that you are within the same risk exposure parameters as laid out in your rules…but the variables of actual ‘size of stops’ – that is always dependent on market conditions (last obvious low etc).

I hope that this enables you to start accepting the inevitable – that you cannot be right all the time – and that you cannot control the outcome – ever!

Just learn to go with the flow more this year – accept the outcome and move on – take the good ones and along with those – learn to take the bad ones as well
Cheers,
Chris.

P.S. Remember the basic rules of exiting a trade…

1. Firstly, an effective initial stop should be place where you don’t expect the market to go (behind the last low etc) and if it does, then the premise of the trade is over and you should rather exit the trade with a small predetermined loss.
2. Never move stops once in a trade to attempt to stay in a trade longer…once past your initial stop, then market conditions have now changed to a point where your original analysis now no longer applies, hence, neither do your original trade parameters.
3. Next a decent exit strategy is required to ensure that you do not react emotionally to a trade once you are in it. That is why they are critical to determine before you actually enter your trade. Their main aim is to strike a balance between protecting open profits as much as possible and to prevent you from exiting the trade too soon (normally an emotional decision at the time). Which exit strategy you decide to use will depend on your actual trading system.
 
Jan12th

IMPORTANT: This free report is not an express or implied recommendation, guidance or proposal that any particular Forex analysis or trade is appropriate to the particular investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any recipient.

EUR/USD

Weekly Trend direction:
Bearish

Weekly trend reversal level: 1.3450

Key G7 resistance levels:
1.3000, 1.3050/80, 1.3150/80, 1.3220, 1.3300

Counter-trend opportunities:

Strategy: Whilst below the weekly trend reversal level sell rallies to resistance levels after an entry signal.

Today's trade suggestion:

After a long decline in the Euro during the holiday weeks, the weekly direction has turned bearish. This means that we are looking to sell the euro into rallies this week, whilst below the weekly reversal level at 1.3450. First resistance is at 1.3000, roughly where the price is currently hovering. However, there are no clear signs of reversal at this stage. Watch and wait over the coming hours. If 1.3000 doesn’t hold, expect the euro to move higher to 1.3050/80 and higher before reversing. As always watch for clear signs of reversal and a G7 entry trigger before selling. First target for short positions is 1.2850.

Summary:

Sell rallies to resistance levels after a clear G7 entry signal. Target 1.2850 and then 1.2700


GBP/USD

Weekly Trend direction:
Bullish

Weekly trend reversal level:
1.5350

Key G7 resistance levels:
1.5540, 1.5500, 1.5460/30, 1.5400/20

Counter-trend opportunities:

Strategy: Whilst above the weekly trend reversal level buy dips to support levels after an entry signal

Today's trade suggestion:

Last week, the pound formed an “inside week” in comparison to the previous week. This is viewed as a continuation pattern, which means that we remain bullish. This pair has really made a meal of it over the holiday weeks, with random fluctuations within a large range, making it difficult to identify clear support levels. Nevertheless, we have penciled in several black lines and a Fibonacci analysis and determined rough areas of support which we will be watching this week. Continue to look to buy into dips, but be aware that the chart is messy and potentially misleading. It is possibly better to remain sidelined until we see cleaner patterns and more direction on the chart. Support levels are listed above.

Summary:

Buy dips to support levels after a clear G7 entry signal. Be somewhat sceptical of the pounds intentions this week!
 
The 3 C’s of life: choices, chances and changes.

You must make a choice to take a chance or your life will never change.

Face 2011 with this attitude and you will be fine.

Also remember this…

“If you do what you always done you will get what you always got”

I have taken a hard look at what I have done in the past versus what I plan to do this year and I am really excited for what lays ahead.

I believe that you need to do the same, especially if you have struggled with results of late. You can’t expect to get different results if you keep doing the same thing.

So what choices do you need to make right now?

Here are a few suggestions from my side…

Trade with discipline or don’t bother to trade at all, and leave the emotions at home

The fact is, the unsuccessful trader is most likely using the same indicators and techniques that the successful trader is using. Yet only one of them gets consistent results. So why is this then? The unsuccessful trader, not realising it at the time, is trading those same indicators emotionally and fearfully.

That’s really all there is to it!

The unsuccessful trader doesn’t realise this though, because they are looking in all the wrong places. After all, if they acknowledge this simple reality, then it means that they need ‘fixing’; and it’s a lot easier to fix a combination of indicators on a chart, then to take a hard honest look at themself.

So begin the year by taking a good hard honest look at yourself and your recent trading results.

If you want to achieve different results, then you need to do something differently this year.

Did I mention not to get emotional?

It’s not about YOU. It’s about price movement. Something that you have absolutely no influence or control over, so stop getting all emotional each time you trade. Your only job is to analyse the ‘probability’ then apply a ‘trading strategy’, consistently and with discipline.

Do the job right and you will make money – it really is as simple as that. Do it wrong though – bring your emotions and ego to the party – and you simply have no chance at all.

Trading is a simple numbers game. When you mess with the odds though and don’t let the dice roll out each play, then you simply have no chance of letting the numbers work their magic.

Although most traders will admit that The Traders Mindset is key to winning in the long-term, most believe they can simply ‘handle it’ when things go wrong.

Too late!

The truth is that once emotional, you become irrational, and simply will not make rational decisions – so forget it – prepare properly so you know what to do when required and you do so unemotionally – or be prepared for large losses.

Speaking of losses then…

Take your losses like a ‘man’

Or a wo(man). Seriously though, we need to man up and accept that losses are simply part of the deal – I mean really accept this.

Be warned now. More traders fail from their inability to accept losses then any other single factor. We have to leave our egos behind when trading. It really cannot be about us if we are to have any chance of success.

Remember.

To win the War you need not win every battle!

I know that you all recognize this reality. But I also know that most of you still struggle with it.

Work on your approach – Your mindset. Prove to yourself that this is in actual fact the case.

So how do you do this in 2011?

Well you need to take a 2-3 week period and be totally committed, not to the overall trading results in the context of pips gained or lost, but rather to the process itself, of staying committed to the trade parameters, and to letting those loses simply happen without any attempt to prevent them from occurring at the time.

Look long term – forget short term.

The focus must be on ‘testing’ the theory more then testing the outcome. By committing to this strategy – your focus now becomes less results orientated and because of that, the process is less emotional. Now your sense of failure will no longer be measured in terms of pips earned or lost – but rather in how well you managed to stay the course and leave those trades alone, in attempting to prove or disprove this theory.

Now your ego is not fighting you on each and every individual loss.

Turn your knowledge into experience this year.

Make a choice to make a change.

All the best,

Chris.
 
Forex-Science Daily Report 27 January 2011

EUR/USD
Weekly Trend direction: Bullish
Weekly trend reversal level: 1.3244
Key G7 support levels: 1.3400, 1.3450, 1.3530, 1.3580, 1.3650
Counter-trend opportunities:

Strategy: Whilst above the weekly trend reversal level buy dips to support levels after an entry signal.

Today's trade suggestion:
It’s hard not to become frustrated with the euro’s behaviour over the past two weeks, with the ambling rally providing little opportunity for buying, and counter-trend trades mostly fizzling out at break-even. The weekly direction remains firmly bullish. However, there are small signs of momentum loss, and a developing “rising wedge” means that the rally could be nearing an end. Note also that the hourly chart is overbought and we have had repeated failure to reach the upper Bollinger bands over the last 2 days. Also note on the weekly chart that we have reached a long term 61.8% Fibonacci resistance level. Support levels are a fair distance below us, and as there are unlikely to any trend direction trades for most of today, we may well look to sell into a clear sign of reversal if and when it happens. January often provides excellent trading opportunities, but these have definitely Not materialised yet!
Summary:
Look to buy the euro into dips later in the day or on Friday, if and when we get a G7 opportunity. Possibly sell into a reversal at the rising wedge, making sure that the stops are tight.


GBP/USD
Weekly Trend direction: Mixed
Weekly trend reversal level: 1.5836
Key G7 support levels: -
Counter-trend opportunities:

Strategy: Stay out

Today's trade suggestion:
Unlike the euro’s ambling moves higher, Cable has demonstrated that it’s still capable of dramatic surprises. Tuesday’s drop of well over 200 pips in a matter of a few hours will have triggered a lot of stops situated below 1.5950, and reversed some of the bullish sentiment dominating the market. However, it has turned out to be short-lived and we are almost back up to 1.5950 where the collapse began. The drop sliced through the weekly reversal level, moving G7 trading on the pound to the
sidelines for the rest of this week. Perhaps it’s just as well. The next two days may be just as volatile with bulls and bears jostling for dominance to end the first month of 2011 and to set the scene for the first quarter. (P.S. Pattern traders will notice the weekly “Head and Shoulder” pattern)
Summary:
Stay sidelined.
 
Sorry Guys been travelling so much lately. Here is a brief heads up of the longer term picture...

 
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