How true
How true
out here at 1.5728 for +24
Good you took some profit Redart.
I’m still waiting for a proper reversal on GU (and EU) - doesn’t look promising for a long at the moment, although GU is trying to push up a bit.
I got out of my E/U trades at 1.382, I hope I didn't get out at the very bottom - if E/U turns around before 1.375 I will yet again be angry at myself for getting shaken out of a winning trade. The fact that traders more experienced than myself are buying the dollar didn't help my confidence in that trade...
Mr Flibble
Well-known member
- Messages
- 371
- Likes
- 20
Buying cable here seeing massive divergence and also a potential double bottom...retest of the low and a test of a round number 1.5701. No SL or target as yet.
AFK,
IMO good to have your own opinion and to follow it (without being swayed by others, unless you realise your view is wrong - like yesterday, I felt like shorting EU, but when I saw your charts I changed my view ).
Only thing I would pay attention to is the price action and not to force my opinion on the market.
Although I know about this sometimes I don’t do it like today - earlier on I entered a long trade (EU). Shortly after entry I was stopped. The break of the low of the candle that stopped me was a good place to enter short.
Why didn’t I enter short? I think it is something to do with me wanting to be right (forcing my oppinion on the market) rather than making profit.
Mr Flibble - I was thinking of going long, but too early for me. Last low below current level was on 30/9 at 15669.6
Anyone care to share his opinions on today's dollar rally? beginning of a consolidation period in the weak dollar trend or just a single strong day for the dollar? I'm really itching to open a small long position with a stop at 1.375 - if it's going to turn around, the price it's at is about right for that. Had I not already lost ~100 pips today on betting it would go up I would have surely went long now, but now now that I have made that loss I'm just happy to still have a few pips in the bag from yesterdays trade 🙂
And yes Mr. Swan, my buddies at Goldman ring me up all the time when they open swing positions in the swissie 😉 . And speaking of the major players - just a few days ago I've heard a forcast by Goldman boys saying they expect the dollar to weaken much further (I think they mentioned it would sink to 1.6 level against the euro, but can't remember the timeframe they gave, probably around a year, so it's a longer term forcast)
And yes Mr. Swan, my buddies at Goldman ring me up all the time when they open swing positions in the swissie 😉 . And speaking of the major players - just a few days ago I've heard a forcast by Goldman boys saying they expect the dollar to weaken much further (I think they mentioned it would sink to 1.6 level against the euro, but can't remember the timeframe they gave, probably around a year, so it's a longer term forcast)
B
Black Swan
As tv presenters are fond of saying "dont try this at home kids.."
A bit more meat on the bone, moved stop down below the round number of 9500, now at 9485, approx. Friday's low which IMHO should indicate that the trade has *gone really bad*. This is roughly at 260 pips a 1.10% risk on my swing trade account...Plenty of swing action today, gone short on Euro, Aussie, Cable, long on Swissy...so taken on a bit of risk across the pairs..
I use Pro Real Time for decision making on swing trades as opposed to marketscope for the small TF trades, I use my own optimised indicators to make the swing decision and when all the elements line up the charts are programmed to sound an alert....but heh, they (the charts) only reflect what decisions the big boys have made/been making this afternoon eh? So let's not kid ourselves the charts have all the answers..😉
Last edited by a moderator:
Bottom catching - speculative trade. Long 13825. Stop below the local low. Target?
Mr Flibble
Well-known member
- Messages
- 371
- Likes
- 20
It should have moved up by now to be honest. If cable doesnt move up strongly soon I'll be looking to take some profits. I've seen this many times where we have a move up then we get stuck in a range..this usually breaks once more to the downside then up we go for real. Anyone agree?
Doesn't look healthy. Anyway I'm long EU and I'll wait till it hits the stop (who knows, if it doesn't hit the stop may work in the near future)
From the 6th of October: "Goldman now calls for the euro to reach $1.40 in three months; its previous forecast, released in early July, called for the euro to trade at $1.22 over a three-month horizon. The new forecast says the euro will reach $1.50 in six months, from the previous call for $1.35, while the common currency will reach $1.55 over a 12-month horizon, compared to the previous forecast of $1.38."
‘Worried about the global slowdown, investors rushed into the perceived safety of the dollar, sending the ICE Dollar index, which tracks the greenback's performance against a trade-weighted basket of currencies, shooting nearly 1.5% higher on the day.’
Investors are strange, aren’t they? - Safety of the dollar???
Investors are strange, aren’t they? - Safety of the dollar???
Of course not, I just pasted this in because I mentioned earlier that the big boys were forecasting further weakening of the dollar.
I love it how economists always find explanations for big market moves after they occur. These explanations always sound reasonable and are always unverifiable. Personally I think it's just forecasters trying to sound smart after the fact as if they know what's going on.
