Forex Day Trader's Thread

there won't be anything but a bit of choppiness and maybe a random stop run to **** you off..
 
SSINGH said:
Trip...just out of interest....which fundamental parameters do you use to make your trading descisions?....??
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I use a whole load of things, the most obvious is news flow (politics, large company news, commodity prices etc) and economic data, thats the thing the market looks at the most. Also need to look at equities to find out what market sentiment is e.g if market is risk averse USD will rally. I also use options risk reversals trades data to see which direction the market is expecting a particular pair to go. Always good to have an idea of long term fundamentals, so I like to know PPP data, get a clear view of which currency is undervalued/overvalued against others. Another point i guess is semi technical and that is understanding what kind of market we are in. Quant funds adjust parameters according to what type of market we are in and they bid certain pairs if its a bullish trend etc. It is not purely technical analysis because you get a feel of market sentiment by not looking at patterns and trend lines but looking at the way market is reacting to certain pieces of data and news. Fundamental analysis boils down to one thing, is this current price level a fair value???
 
people think that fundamentals don't drive short term price trends but it is foolish to think so. News/Economic data is fundamental and massively moves markets, such as yesterday's payrolls figures. A good trader has all round knowledge. You need to be clued up on options and interest rate markets (gilts, swap rates, money market rates etc) to really understand what is driving prices. FX desks at banks look at yield curves etc to understand where short term rates are, which has a direct effect on currencies
 
tripleogstar said:
I use a whole load of things, the most obvious is news flow (politics, large company news, commodity prices etc) and economic data, thats the thing the market looks at the most. Also need to look at equities to find out what market sentiment is e.g if market is risk averse USD will rally. I also use options risk reversals trades data to see which direction the market is expecting a particular pair to go. Always good to have an idea of long term fundamentals, so I like to know PPP data, get a clear view of which currency is undervalued/overvalued against others. Another point i guess is semi technical and that is understanding what kind of market we are in. Quant funds adjust parameters according to what type of market we are in and they bid certain pairs if its a bullish trend etc. It is not purely technical analysis because you get a feel of market sentiment by not looking at patterns and trend lines but looking at the way market is reacting to certain pieces of data and news. Fundamental analysis boils down to one thing, is this current price level a fair value???
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You do all this work before placing a trade???...blimey....when do you actually find time to trade?....
 
SSINGH said:
You do all this work before placing a trade???...blimey....when do you actually find time to trade?....
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Well u see how frequently i trrade, i post it most the time and tend to make a lot of money as well. most of that stuff is info that is already in my head (kinda like knowing the financials/accounts of a company). it takes a matter of minutes to have a look at the rates market, equities etc. and news flow is constant, you pick what you think will move the markets. i probably spend less time doin all that than you spend drawing trend lines on your charts.
 
its called dedication...i.e spending most waking hours studying the markets whether your trading or not.
 
you aslo need to know what info to be looking at and where to find it. the big one i track is liquidity
 
This must be a really boring day if we're taking about trading theory in the middle of the NY session :LOL:

An easy thing to do is to guess what the Japanese will do based on what the Americans did and what the Europeans will do based on what the Japanese did.. For instance, after a strong day in US equities you need to see if there is any Japanese data scheduled.. if there is isn't any data scheduled then they will most likely mimick what the US did.. It isn't foolproof but works with a high rate of success. Of course you need to check out things like ob/os in the pair you want to trade as well..
 
tripleogstar said:
Well u see how frequently i trrade, i post it most the time and tend to make a lot of money as well. most of that stuff is info that is already in my head (kinda like knowing the financials/accounts of a company). it takes a matter of minutes to have a look at the rates market, equities etc. and news flow is constant, you pick what you think will move the markets. i probably spend less time doin all that than you spend drawing trend lines on your charts.
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btw...I went long Crude Oil just before the close, and have just gone long Cable to hold over the weekend.

I understand dedication and commitment....

But I don't spend more than 1 hour a day screen time drawing my lines on the charts, strategising, planning....etc.

What I'm trying to get at is, that it is really pretty common sence what impact fiscal and monetry policy will have...these are based on historical events and are again seen as broader & generalised trends based on macro economic money flow or the sum total of economic activity examining supply and demand of money and commodites, which we try to profit from even though we cannot really understand them unless we employ the maths to model them,...interpreting such economic data requires some seriously advanced mathematics....I have an honours degree from a red brick uni in a mathematically focussed degree in which statistics / quantitative analysis was a mandatory core component ...I should be able to do the number crunching but I don't because I know that if I take this approach It will become even more work and I will not be able to trade a broad variety of instruments......I think what your talking about is sentiment, nothing really more and nothing less, since I guess that you don't do the home work (the real analysis) which analysts do in their research departments at large financial institutions as the work load would be way to much for one person....this is why I think...sod fundamental analysis since 99 percent of it is already priced into the markets at any given time... it would be on the whole quite useless to applying it to a day trading model.

I hate to talk about money....but I don't get out of bed for less than £50k / month ...and this is all based on the lines that I draw on charts consuming approximately 1 hour screen time a day....the rest of my time is taken up watching / waiting to execute entry or exit and managing the risk....

I write the above with the utmost respect....I'm not looking for a fight, neither am I trying to antagonise you....

B/Regards...Sean
 
number crunching for what? unemployment numbers came at worse than predicted (as i prediected) doesnt take a genious to work out the markets arnt gona like it!
 
and as for sod fundamental analysis, well thats your call but the other day everyone was trying for longs as thats what the technical called for, but me and triple were short..because the fundamentals almost ALWAYS outweigh the technical s..
 
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