ES tonight

[rathcoole_exile]

update in running - 4 feb

had to go out earlier so set a stop sell and stop buy at extremes of each Kill Zone.

just come back to see the Breakout Long performed beautifully for +1.+2, +5 almost to the penny.
$400 - nearly what I just spent on my night out - Oops !

should now be managing the pending reversal short, or the next breakout Long, but too pyssed, off to Bedski

 

[rathcoole_exile]

final update for 4 feb

["should now be managing the pending reversal short, or the next breakout Long, but too pyssed, off to Bedski"] - yellow circle is when I went to bed.

ah well, "coulda shoulda woulda" - missed 11 point move by not staying up for the reversal short from 837

nevertheless, am still pleased that the "system", "method", "complete bollox guesswork", call it what you will, seems to still be working well .....

 

[rathcoole_exile]

update to the Weekly

yet again, a night out ended up costing more than the price of a few beers as I missed this Reversal Short from 844.50 on the Weekly set-up
by the time I got home, price was already at 838 so I hesitated to initiate the trade and so missed out altogether.

the one interesting thing I wanted to pointed out to my very limited readership
(hi mate !)
is the convergence at the reversal at 844.5 with the Keltner Channel Reversal I'm playing with.
The idea is that once a bar closes outside the KC, you set a Stop Entry at the bottom of that candle. If price continues up and forms new candles which close outside KC too, you simply move the Entry up .
In the example shown here, there would have been 2 Entries that failed to trigger until the trigger point was finally almost at par with the Kill Zone Reversal .

Not sure what it all means, if there's an independent trading system to be derived from this, but I'm interested in exploring it more as an Exit strat that an Entry - see if it can keep me in a winning trade a little longer with premature ejection.
Any comments appreciated .....

 

[rathcoole_exile]

ESH9 Daily Thurs 5 Feb

HKZ ....................
Breakout Long ........ 843.00
Reversal Short ........ 837.75
LKZ
Reversal Long ........ 826.00
Breakdown Short ..... 818.50


by the way, the "experimental" figures which use VAH and VAL rather than actual H & L produce the following set-ups.
VAHKZ ....................
Breakout Long ........ 841.00
Reversal Short ........ 837.5
VALKZ
Reversal Long ........ 828.5
Breakdown Short ..... 822.25

 

[rathcoole_exile]

looking for a reversal short now from sub 837.75

wouldn't rule out a Long from mid 840s but the 60 minute Keltner is showing signs of a reversal, so focus is on short side for now

 

[rathcoole_exile]

ES reversal short earlier

OOps, error in the title, I meant ""REVERSAL LONG",

notice how the KC chart gave more confidence to the Reversal Long from the 825 area after the 15 (and 60) minute bar had closed outside the KC channel, forewarning of a possible price reversal ....

and subsequently, the bars closing outside of the Kc channel later gave a good heads up that the move was starting to peter out from around the mid 830s ...

 

[rathcoole_exile]

looking for a reversal short now from sub 837.75

wouldn't rule out a Long from mid 840s but the 60 minute Keltner is showing signs of a reversal, so focus is on short side for now

could maybe have squeezed out +5 on the Long side, but market went very flat as soon as I posted and no further trades were taken. the anticipated Short wasn't triggered.

 

[rathcoole_exile]

ESH9 Daily set up for Friday 6 Feb

HKZ ....................
Breakout Long ........ 856.75
Reversal Short ........ 847.00
LKZ
Reversal Long ........ 830.50
Breakdown Short ..... 823.50

 

[rathcoole_exile]

"experimental" set ups for 6 feb

update to pre-market reversal long

 

[rathcoole_exile]

review of weekly triggers 2-6 Feb

...





..

 

[rathcoole_exile]

ESH9 WEEKLY w/c Mon 9 Feb09

WHKZ ....................
Breakout Long ........ 900.00
Reversal Short ........ 876.50

WPP .......................853.00

WLKZ
Reversal Long ........ 845.00
Breakdown Short ..... 836.75

 

[rathcoole_exile]

ESH9 Daily set up for Mon 9 Feb

HKZ ....................
Breakout Long ........ 882.00
Reversal Short ........ 871.50
LKZ
Reversal Long ........ 855.00
Breakdown Short ..... 848.5

................................................................
pre-market experimental set-ups using VAH & VAL:

872.5
868.75 (reversal short already triggered)

863.25
861.5 (breakdown short already triggered)

 

[rathcoole_exile]

9 feb pre-market set up

note the almost direct drop from VAH to VAL earlier ! (the two black horizontals)

 

[rathcoole_exile]

9 feb RTH set up

kill zone set ups for today

 

[rathcoole_exile]

continuing my exploration into...

close outside of KC, set buy/sell stops at hi/lo of candle to see if a reversal kicks in.

 

[rathcoole_exile]

630pm possible trade setting up ?

if price rises into the Lower Kill Zone and gets above 861, I'll be looking to short it from there.
Possible confirmation setting up if the candle can close above the KC channel signalling a possible reversal ...

 

[rathcoole_exile]

set up for WEEK ahead

Esh9

 

[rathcoole_exile]

getting more interested in

getting more interested in these reversals after a close outside the Keltner Channel....

target is lower KC channel so around 858 which is +/- the VAL (and POC) from yesterday

 

[rathcoole_exile]

ESH9 Daily, update ( feb

pretty nice move from Kill Zone to Kill Zone.

Now headed where ?


well it got there in the end !! after long periods of frustration and thinking i was about to get stopped out.

 

[rathcoole_exile]

Keltner Channel Reversal update

well, the first Sell didn't work out. I managed to get =1 and +2 (only by the skin of my teeth) before reversing to stop me out of my 3rd car.

Let's see how this new short shapes up .., it certainly worked well as a confirmer of the Reversal Short from the Higher Kill Zone


But now I'm back in the realm of deciding on Time Frames. having ditched indicators previously, my Kill Zone method doesn't really need a fixed TF, it doesn't even need a chart, I've even traded direct off the dome without looking at a chart.

But my current fascination with the Keltner Channel and it's potential for spotting reversals is dragging back into a) indicators and b) TF.

The point is, the first KC Reversal short I posted at around 630hrs looked good on a 15 min TF but didn't even appear on the 60 min.
The second reversal I just posted, shows up on both 15 and 60mins. Does that add any weight to its significance ?
I don't know. Will this second trade even pan out ? It doesn't look good at the moment.
Maybe I thought I'd spotted something useful, but maybe it's just a crock of shyte ?

update on second Short Reversal: had my +1 & +2 then got stopped out again. will keep banging away at this to prove or disprove to myself