dans_ya_man
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Were in the battle zone again, its anyones bet from here
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firewalker99
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brutusdog
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Atilla
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Atilla
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Hi guys,
Here is my take on the markets for this week. Prety much the same as last week really. I feel 12700-800 regions have got rejected again. Firmly I'd say despite all the good news with the $200bn + revaluation of Bear Sterns.
The Weekly charts look dangerously bearish whilst the dailys showing some spritely moves but nothing of substance imo.
The cheery tune of Sell and Go Away in May keeps running through my head like a scratched record. Signs of senile dementure no doubt?
Good trading everyone...
Here is my take on the markets for this week. Prety much the same as last week really. I feel 12700-800 regions have got rejected again. Firmly I'd say despite all the good news with the $200bn + revaluation of Bear Sterns.
The Weekly charts look dangerously bearish whilst the dailys showing some spritely moves but nothing of substance imo.
The cheery tune of Sell and Go Away in May keeps running through my head like a scratched record. Signs of senile dementure no doubt?
Good trading everyone...
Attachments
Long term investing right now could be an incredible place to be, I feel the market has a VERY good shot at breaking into bull trend mode again soon. In January I predicted the 14k dow level to be tested (if not smashed) this year, let's see how much doom n' gloom is left and if I'm really crazy.
Here's the monthly where we have a nice channel we are in. Why would I call this a correction and not a bear market? Well for one the upwards channel has held up thus far and on top of that the 8ma hasn't crossed below the 21ma. We have been and are still in a "bear trend" but a bear market to me is not a accurate assessment yet. The 50ma and trend line are acting as confluent support. Note the ATR curling down which is often a sign of bullishness. ATR goes up when emotion is injected in the game by gloomy news to shake people out of shares.
Note the triangle we are in, descending. SO the path of least resistance technically is down. That being said the range is getting tight and much of my other evidence points up. The macd is near crossing for the bulls. Watch for the downtrend line and 21ma along with structure resistance to break. The worst should be over if we can break all those down. The next hurdle will be the 50ma.
The uptrend that's held so far actually stems back to late 2001. Yes the y2k bear broke the line down but TA is an art. Don't think that a trendline can't be broken yet remain valid. Look at how many times we have successfully tested this trendline, that cannot be ignored. Support wise we are backed by the confluent 200ma and trendline. Volume is concentrated at the bottoms which is accumulation, also the volume has decreased as the price has taken out new lows which shows selling could be drying up. On the mini runs the volume is pretty light so it appears they are not flipping and that confirms accumulation IMO. I do my analysis from the top down, starting with monthly and then getting more granular. Why is simple, because look at a daily chart and you will get whipsawed to hell. You need to go out further to reduce the noise on the charts.
Good trading,
MC
Here's the monthly where we have a nice channel we are in. Why would I call this a correction and not a bear market? Well for one the upwards channel has held up thus far and on top of that the 8ma hasn't crossed below the 21ma. We have been and are still in a "bear trend" but a bear market to me is not a accurate assessment yet. The 50ma and trend line are acting as confluent support. Note the ATR curling down which is often a sign of bullishness. ATR goes up when emotion is injected in the game by gloomy news to shake people out of shares.
Note the triangle we are in, descending. SO the path of least resistance technically is down. That being said the range is getting tight and much of my other evidence points up. The macd is near crossing for the bulls. Watch for the downtrend line and 21ma along with structure resistance to break. The worst should be over if we can break all those down. The next hurdle will be the 50ma.
The uptrend that's held so far actually stems back to late 2001. Yes the y2k bear broke the line down but TA is an art. Don't think that a trendline can't be broken yet remain valid. Look at how many times we have successfully tested this trendline, that cannot be ignored. Support wise we are backed by the confluent 200ma and trendline. Volume is concentrated at the bottoms which is accumulation, also the volume has decreased as the price has taken out new lows which shows selling could be drying up. On the mini runs the volume is pretty light so it appears they are not flipping and that confirms accumulation IMO. I do my analysis from the top down, starting with monthly and then getting more granular. Why is simple, because look at a daily chart and you will get whipsawed to hell. You need to go out further to reduce the noise on the charts.
Good trading,
MC
Atilla
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Long term investing right now could be an incredible place to be, I feel the market has a VERY good shot at breaking into bull trend mode again soon. In January I predicted the 14k dow level to be tested (if not smashed) this year, let's see how much doom n' gloom is left and if I'm really crazy.
Here's the monthly where we have a nice channel we are in. Why would I call this a correction and not a bear market? Well for one the upwards channel has held up thus far and on top of that the 8ma hasn't crossed below the 21ma. We have been and are still in a "bear trend" but a bear market to me is not a accurate assessment yet. The 50ma and trend line are acting as confluent support. Note the ATR curling down which is often a sign of bullishness. ATR goes up when emotion is injected in the game by gloomy news to shake people out of shares.
Note the triangle we are in, descending. SO the path of least resistance technically is down. That being said the range is getting tight and much of my other evidence points up. The macd is near crossing for the bulls. Watch for the downtrend line and 21ma along with structure resistance to break. The worst should be over if we can break all those down. The next hurdle will be the 50ma.
The uptrend that's held so far actually stems back to late 2001. Yes the y2k bear broke the line down but TA is an art. Don't think that a trendline can't be broken yet remain valid. Look at how many times we have successfully tested this trendline, that cannot be ignored. Support wise we are backed by the confluent 200ma and trendline. Volume is concentrated at the bottoms which is accumulation, also the volume has decreased as the price has taken out new lows which shows selling could be drying up. On the mini runs the volume is pretty light so it appears they are not flipping and that confirms accumulation IMO. I do my analysis from the top down, starting with monthly and then getting more granular. Why is simple, because look at a daily chart and you will get whipsawed to hell. You need to go out further to reduce the noise on the charts.
Good trading,
MC
Interesting view on the charts mcichocki. Just for the record these charts I'm using were knocked up last December. They are my map to the galaxies...
So far so good. I basically, print the same ones out to see how it pans out through out the next two three years. I think my sentiments are pretty obvious on the charts. They are essentially based on repeating patterns as displayed by the red lines. History does repeat it self almost identically.
Any bounce up I see as an excellent shorting opportunity.
P
postman
Long term investing right now could be an incredible place to be, I feel the market has a VERY good shot at breaking into bull trend mode again soon. In January I predicted the 14k dow level to be tested (if not smashed) this year, let's see how much doom n' gloom is left and if I'm really crazy.
...
Good trading,
MC
This sounds like an advertisment, real people don't post like that - it's marketing speak. - do you work for a trading company?
firewalker99
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"Jolly Janet" Yellen of Fed gave an update of her 2k8 outlook in bloomberg interview in last 48hrs - it was pretty bleak and it makes me pause for thought when I see we are in yet another rocket move upwards...... as many turn intermediate term bullish.
Maybe the market has got it right ... and I should be dusting off my long list of low lying stocks ... for potential longs... again just in case
Intermediate term was and still looks bullish, because we had a higher low or confirmed low on some indices. However, I don't see this as a trend reversal in the longer term, I still believe the move down has only exhausted temporarily.
A lot of people are getting excited about the prospect that the bad news has been fully digested into stock's prices. But the real low that identifies the end of the bear market has to be accompagnied by a total consensus that market conditions are horrible. So fwiw, I think this might consolidate for a while or even go slightly higher but for long term investing I definitely wouldn't want to put my money in stocks right now...
Let's not forget the biggest rallies occur in bear markets.
jonnyy40
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I'm Bullish because the bottom almost fell out of the World a few days/weeks ago and I think everybody wants to rebuild a little cash reserve and get us higher before war will commence again.They looked into the abyss and recoiled in horror.
firewalker99
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Looking to see if this can break above 700.
Pat494
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got there but not exactly motoring yet
firewalker99
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lunchtime...
Take 5 off that stop 697. Now BE.
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