FX-2008: w/c Jan-07th

[trendie]

ok, trading eur/dolar, 2:1 reward risk ratio, not trading more than 1 % at any one time. average non aggresive strategy. got a ball park figure? %

ok.
you have 2:1 reward to risk. so your account grows 2% for every 1% you risk.

now, out of 100 potential trades, how many times do you win/lose, eg, 55/45 or 70/30.
secondly, how many trades per week do you take?

 

[shadowninja]

Depends on how many trades in a year...

 

[dubala]

I actually understand, i wouldnt know how many trades per week it would depend on how many good setups they were in that week. For arguments sake lets say 3 trades per week.
60 pips per week.

 

[JTrader]

Depends on how many trades in a year...

And could you tell us - how many pips you plan to make per week please?

 

[FXSCALPER2]

I actually understand, i wouldnt know how many trades per week it would depend on how many good setups they were in that week. For arguments sake lets say 3 trades per week.
60 pips per week.

1% of £5k is £50. You then need to come up with your average stop loss which will determine your position size. Let's say, for example, you have an average stop of 20 pips. which means your trade size is £2.5/pip (2.5 x 20 =50). Without compounding, on 60 pips a week, you will make £130.

Is that realistic? It depends on how good you are, of course.

 

[fibonelli]

This has been a lovely ride........ best trade of 2k7 but all good things have to come to an end don't they ??

Nice to see an appreciation of the EUR/GBP cross.

Here's a quarterly big picture chart followed by a daily one.

The daily one includes fibs marked in light brown and some key decision points at TL, fib and RBS intersections marked in light purple.

 

[JTrader]

After 2 quiet days in the market, today I switched alarm clock off & fell back to sleep. Meant i was 10 minutes late to work today. This meant i missed a trade i would have taken that made 30p+ by 4 minutes. I KNEW that i would miss a good signal today due to being minutes late. You just know this kind of **** will happen don't you - Murphys Law.

 

[bbmac]

gbpusd

Attached is the Dly chart showing former swing highs and lows on that time frame and a potential congestion zone (green lines possible support, red lines potential resistance)

Looking nearer term 9650-70 is the potential near term resistance 9629-9659 being the last 5min potential SBR zone. 9653 is the 23.6% of today's fall and a former swing low on many time frames, daily included. and of course Dly S1 pivot.

MNi talking about bids at 9600/10 and a reported option barrier there. 9550/60 area looks potential support also.

 

[bbmac]

gbpusd

so the technical phenomenon of support becomes resistance/resistance becomes support (SBR/RBS) strikes again as cable finds resistance at the former support 9653 mentioned above, making new lows around 9605 area finding support at the bids referred to in last post.

The 5min Re-entry set-up is shown and the resistance came in that last 5min potential SBR zone 9629-59

5min Re-entry type 2

 

[fibonelli]

so the technical phenomenon of support becomes resistance/resistance becomes support (SBR/RBS) strikes again as cable finds resistance at the former support 9653 mentioned above, making new lows around 9605 area finding support at the bids referred to in last post.

The 5min Re-entry set-up is shown and the resistance came in that last 5min potential SBR zone 9629-59

5min Re-entry type 2

nice volatility squeeze too!

 

[bbmac]

gbpusd cont....

Thx fibonelli.

Gbpusd now 161pips off the intraday Hi. Last 5/15/30min potential SBR zone becomes the broken swing low at 9616-the last lower swing high at 9653. 23.6% of intraday move now at 9641, 38.2% at 9664

Screenshots are my small secondary charts showing oversold conditions at the support. Breech of extreme fib tunnel, lower donchian channel and 2nd extreme support channel 9161.8) on 1min trigger and similar on 5min intermediate with additional confluence with the breech of first fib channel (yellow)

1 and 5min small secondarycharts

Support possible down to 9590 and under that 9550/60 a possible area.

EDIT
1315pm: Mni talking about a reported option barrier at 9600, unconfirmed, with stops around 9690.
1323pm Wkly L3 (break or bounce) camarilla pivot is at 9600 area along with the 1% MA envelope (according to MNI)

 

[bbmac]

gbpusd cont...

Smart recovery off support area so far, price trading back at 9630 as I write this.

9590 is of course 38.2% of 7074-1162
Wkly S1 pivot 9575, Dly S2 pivot is at 9577 area

 

[bbmac]

The chart shows the 5min (as intermediate time frame) SBR (support becomes resistance) zones offering resistance after a pullback from a lower low (LL) to a lower high (LH) in the last zone.

Dropping down to your intermediate chart is useful in detremining areas in which to re-enter a trend on your trend time frame (in this case 30min.)

Confluence is the key, as indicated in the posts above, the Re-entry to the trend at the lower high (LH) in the SBR zone 3 being a prime example.

You'll see that the lows around 9602 were exceeded to a slightly lower low (LL) at 9599from the lower high (LH) at 9626 area following a pullback into zone 4.

On the subsequent pullback up off these slightly lower lows at 9599, price found resistance in the SBR zone 5, at a slightly higher high (HH) than the last lower high (LH) found in zone 4.

SBR zone 4 being was the stronger potential SBR zone as it was co-existant on the 15min and 30min charts.

A new lower low at 9586 area was recorded from that slightly higher high (HH) in zone 4

Price has, as I write this, yet to make a new lower low from the LH found in the last SBR zone 6, trading near to the last LL shown.

If price were to exceed to the downside the last lower low (intraday low) shown (LL) at 9585 area then the area between that LL and the last LH will become the intermdiate SBR zone 7.

 

[bbmac]

as above

Ive ammended the chart above to make it cleare

 

[bbmac]

gbpusd....

Price now exceeds the last lower swing low (LL) at 9585 to record a new low at 9568, A new 5min (intermdiate) sbr zone 7 is therefore created from the broken low at 9585 to the lower swing jigh (LH) at 9623, see screenshot.

Price now 195pips off the intraday highs.

 

[dc2000]

will cable bounce 622 to 722 :cheesy:

 

[TheBramble]

will cable bounce 622 to 722 :cheesy:

Happy to see what it does at this key 9606 level first. The BoE may cloud things, but there is still inherent weakness in Sterling on the longer TFs.

 

[JTrader]

UK rates on hold at 5.5%.

 

[rols]

Yes! We have no banana....

UK rates on hold at 5.5%.

There's a fruit store on our street
It's run by a Greek
And he keeps good things to eat But you should hear him speak!
When you ask him anything, he never answers "no"
He just "yes"es you to death, and as he takes your dough He tells you
"Yes, we have no bananas
We have-a no bananas today
We've string beans, and onions
Cabashes, and scallions,
And all sorts of fruit and say
We have an old fashioned tomato
A Long Island potato But yes, we have no bananas
We have no bananas today
Business got so good for him that he wrote home to say,
"Send me Pete and Nick and Jim; I need help right away"
When he got them in the store, there was fun, you bet
Someone asked for "sparrow grass" and then the whole quartet
All answered "Yes, we have no bananas
We have-a no bananas today
Just try those coconuts
Those wall-nuts and doughnuts
There ain't many nuts like they
We'll sell you two kinds of red herring,
Dark brown, and ball-bearing
But yes, we have no bananas
We have no bananas today"
He,he,he,he, ha, ha, ha whatta you laugh at?
You gotta soup or pie?
Yes, I don’t think we got soup or pie
You gotta coconut pie?
Yes, I don’t think we got coconut pie
Well I’ll have one cup a coffee
We gotta no coffee
Then watta you got?
I got a banana!
Oh you’ve got a banana!
Yes, we gotta no banana, No banana, No banana, I tell you we gotta no banana today
I sella you no banana
Hey, Mary Anna, you gotta.. gotta no banana?
Why this man, he’s no believe-a what I say… no… he no believe me…
Now whatta you wanta mister? You wanna buy twelve for a quarter?
Well, just a one of a look, I'm gonna call for my daughter
Hey, Mary Anna You gotta piana
Yes, a banana, no
Yes, we gotta no bananas today!
The new English "clark" (a.k.a.“clerk”):
Yes, we are very sorry to inform you
That we are entirely out of the fruit in question
The afore-mentioned vegetable Bearing the cognomen "Banana"
We might induce you to accept a substitute less desirable,
But that is not the policy at this internationally famous green grocery
I should say not. No no no no no no no
But may we suggest that you sample our five o'clock tea
Which we feel certain will tempt your pallet?
However we regret that after a diligent search
Of the premises By our entire staff
We can positively affirm without fear of contradiction
That our raspberries are delicious; really delicious
Very delicious But we have no bananas today.

Lyrics as sung by Billy Jones, Edison Blue Amberol Cylinder #4778 Released October 1923

 

[JTrader]

There's a fruit store on our street
It's run by a Greek
And he keeps good things to eat But you should hear him speak!
When you ask him anything, he never answers "no"
He just "yes"es you to death, and as he takes your dough He tells you
"Yes, we have no bananas
We have-a no bananas today
We've string beans, and onions
Cabashes, and scallions,
And all sorts of fruit and say
We have an old fashioned tomato
A Long Island potato But yes, we have no bananas
We have no bananas today
Business got so good for him that he wrote home to say,
"Send me Pete and Nick and Jim; I need help right away"
When he got them in the store, there was fun, you bet
Someone asked for "sparrow grass" and then the whole quartet
All answered "Yes, we have no bananas
We have-a no bananas today
Just try those coconuts
Those wall-nuts and doughnuts
There ain't many nuts like they
We'll sell you two kinds of red herring,
Dark brown, and ball-bearing
But yes, we have no bananas
We have no bananas today"
He,he,he,he, ha, ha, ha whatta you laugh at?
You gotta soup or pie?
Yes, I don’t think we got soup or pie
You gotta coconut pie?
Yes, I don’t think we got coconut pie
Well I’ll have one cup a coffee
We gotta no coffee
Then watta you got?
I got a banana!
Oh you’ve got a banana!
Yes, we gotta no banana, No banana, No banana, I tell you we gotta no banana today
I sella you no banana
Hey, Mary Anna, you gotta.. gotta no banana?
Why this man, he’s no believe-a what I say… no… he no believe me…
Now whatta you wanta mister? You wanna buy twelve for a quarter?
Well, just a one of a look, I'm gonna call for my daughter
Hey, Mary Anna You gotta piana
Yes, a banana, no
Yes, we gotta no bananas today!
The new English "clark" (a.k.a.“clerk”):
Yes, we are very sorry to inform you
That we are entirely out of the fruit in question
The afore-mentioned vegetable Bearing the cognomen "Banana"
We might induce you to accept a substitute less desirable,
But that is not the policy at this internationally famous green grocery
I should say not. No no no no no no no
But may we suggest that you sample our five o'clock tea
Which we feel certain will tempt your pallet?
However we regret that after a diligent search
Of the premises By our entire staff
We can positively affirm without fear of contradiction
That our raspberries are delicious; really delicious
Very delicious But we have no bananas today.

Lyrics as sung by Billy Jones, Edison Blue Amberol Cylinder #4778 Released October 1923

Bah.....Pip Slave .
My IR post post was "essential" .