Dow 2007

Hook Shot said:
First off...
Dow not that far off the weeks lows and can be had fairly cheaply in case of a boom tomorrow...... European indices are not fussed about tomorrow .... 🙄 😆

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But in the last few days many markets have sniffed/hit multiyear highs....
Gold/Oil/Dow/Euro....HongKong 🙂lol: ) .....and the carry trade seems well and truly established...

A perfect world.... But what if....??

The long side is easy to play (dow30) so I'm preparing for a move in the other direction - just in case....

Edit: $/Y 116.48 seems as fearless as the european indices in the face of tomorrows uncertainty ...
not sure what to make of it.... 🙂

Dow 960 mid price
Click to expand...

so this week (from monday) would have been a good short - who'da thunk it after Monday ..

it's hard to believe the numbers tomorrow will cause any big moves at the moment .. the data was bad today and we had a pullback, nothing serious, but are we past the point at which bad news precipitates euphoric musings about interest rate cuts? .. I await my comeuppance tomorrow 🙄
 
Last edited:
shortorlong said:
so this week (from monday) would have been a good short - who'da thunk it after Monday ..

it's hard to believe the numbers tomorrow will cause any big moves at the moment .. the data was bad today and we had a pullback, nothing serious, but are we past the point at which bad news precipitates euphoric musings about interest rate cuts? .. I await my comeuppance tomorrow 🙄
Click to expand...

hmm .. for balance:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7028321.stm
"
"I don't think factory orders are a significant new indication of weakness," said Charles Lieberman, chief investment officer at Advisors Capital Management.
But in contrast he said investors would be closely watching data to be revealed on Friday regarding jobs.
"
 
Pat494 said:
Isn't that the day the Indians found some bloke in rags wandering around on the beach not knowing where he was ? LOL
Click to expand...

I thought it was in aid of some short detective in a long shabby raincoat...oh,sorry,that's Columbo...😆
 
Anomalies...don't you just love 'em

First off...
Dow not that far off the weeks lows and can be had fairly cheaply in case of a boom tomorrow...... European indices are not fussed about tomorrow .... 🙄 😆
Click to expand...

Dow drifted towards 950 overnight....... the lows of the pullback ..yet the jobs numbers later could go either way. Europe was firm so the falling dow did not make sense...

Needless to say it's got it's act together this morning 😆
 
Nonfarm Employment Change 110K expected: 100K
previous: 89K revised upwards from -4k

amazing - this number precipitated a major plunge when it was -4k and a 50 point interest rate cut .. 😕 😕 😕

didn't it? .. have I got the chronology wrong here?
 
The old 1-2-3 would have worked there. I didn't trade the number. Looks like the losing week has just rolled up!

shortorlong, yes, that is correct. Quite amazing. Looks like the bull market really is back. New highs into the close?
 
shortorlong said:
Nonfarm Employment Change 110K expected: 100K
previous: 89K revised upwards from -4k

amazing - this number precipitated a major plunge when it was -4k and a 50 point interest rate cut .. 😕 😕 😕

didn't it? .. have I got the chronology wrong here?
Click to expand...

Apparently the government underestimated the number of government employees (esp teachers) recruited in the summer 🙄

How very convenient for a 50bp to save the Dow........🙁
 
lurkerlurker said:
The old 1-2-3 would have worked there. I didn't trade the number. Looks like the losing week has just rolled up!

shortorlong, yes, that is correct. Quite amazing. Looks like the bull market really is back. New highs into the close?
Click to expand...


not much of a pullback yet, but the thing is . now there should be less chance of another interest rate cut because jobs situation is not as bad we were led to believe 😕
 
2468steve said:
Thanx m8 and to all other members for their messages/PM's of support,

The market:
NDX is two points off a W projection at 2120....equilevant on SPX is 1553...if these numbers are taken out next stop could be 1:1 projection off of August lows giving 2170 for NDX and 1565 for SPX...which could take Dow to 14250....personally I'm looking to sell this on test of 1553
Click to expand...

I've gone short SPX cash 1553....
 
ok .. now Merrill have revealed their exposure to sub prime

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7030511.stm
Last Updated: Friday, 5 October 2007, 15:52 GMT 16:52 UK
"Merrill Lynch has warned it will have to write down a $5.5bn (£2.7bn) loss for bad investments linked to defaulted US sub-prime mortgages."

It seemed to me that when Citigroup and UBS revealed their exposure,, the market reacted like a boil had been lanced .. that was Monday I believe ..

maybe we are seeing the same thing today .. but just as my previous reservations about a rally today were wrong .. so this might be the top for today ..or not!!

anyway this is pretty irrelevant from a trading perspective I suppose ..

I had my long, nicked a very few points .. naturally I bought right at the top and just squeaked a few after nearly getting another haircut 🙄 😆
 
daytradingUK said:
Yeah I went and got something to eat... came back and the graph shows a range bound boredom market! Anyone even bothering since 3pm?
Click to expand...

Usually leads to a nice trending day the day after, as proven today very nicely...
Look at the volume yesterday...relatively flat and low. Accumulation going slowly and unnoticed for the untrained eye.

Only longs in my order book past week! 🙂
 
shortorlong said:
maybe we are seeing the same thing today .. but just as my previous reservations about a rally today were wrong .. so this might be the top for today ..or not!!

anyway this is pretty irrelevant from a trading perspective I suppose ..

I had my long, nicked a very few points .. naturally I bought right at the top and just squeaked a few after nearly getting another haircut 🙄 😆
Click to expand...

instead of gambling whether or not this is the top... look at what the chart is telling you

YM was very predictable in terms of balancing & trending this week imho. Today's high is give or take 10 points off Monday's high, which would've made for a perfect exit for longs. And if you insist on going against the trend, a possible short entry...
 
firewalker99 said:
Usually leads to a nice trending day the day after, as proven today very nicely...
Look at the volume yesterday...relatively flat and low. Accumulation going slowly and unnoticed for the untrained eye.

Only longs in my order book past week! 🙂
Click to expand...

Hi Firewalker,

Good to see you back on the posts. I have utmost respect for your longs and today did manage to scalp long and short trades.

However, last few days when the DOW has taken off I've heard it's on less volume than normal. Doesn't that indicate weakness in the market?

Although looking at the charts I can see we are making new highs dailies look very weak.

I have got a bias to the short side and feel as if there is something wrong with my mentality when it comes to taking longs. It's like driving on the wrong sid e of the road to me.

Regards,
 
firewalker99 said:
instead of gambling whether or not this is the top... look at what the chart is telling you

YM was very predictable in terms of balancing & trending this week imho. Today's high is give or take 10 points off Monday's high, which would've made for a perfect exit for longs. And if you insist on going against the trend, a possible short entry...
Click to expand...

Trouble is I don't have the experience yet to read the chart with any certainty (will I ever), so every trade is click and pray 😆

I thought the DOW was horrible this week .. down from Monday night till today then boom .. I believed the consolidation hypothesis but it just took so damn long 🙁 I wonder how many longs were stopped out this week ..

today I traded over the data .. got sucked into a long(well I've had a bad week I thought I might as well go out with a bang) .. but I cut it too soon expecting a pull back any second .. then when it still looked strong I bought again .. right at the top as it turned out . one hour later I got out with a few points .. I should write a book ..How not to trade 😆
 
TheBramble said:
I may be misunderstanding you here Fibo, but Government employees are not included in NFP.
Click to expand...

Delving further into the employment data shows that the birth-death model adjustment was responsible for the turnaround in revised August employment. The birth-death model added 120,000 ficticious jobs in August, and backing out the BDM adjustment would have led to a decline of 31,000 jobs for the month. The BDM adjustment for September payrolls was much smaller, coming in at 17,000 jobs.
 
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