Dow 2007

[black bear]

Trouble is I don't have the experience yet to read the chart with any certainty (will I ever), so every trade is click and pray

I thought the DOW was horrible this week .. down from Monday night till today then boom .. I believed the consolidation hypothesis but it just took so damn long I wonder how many longs were stopped out this week ..

today I traded over the data .. got sucked into a long(well I've had a bad week I thought I might as well go out with a bang) .. but I cut it too soon expecting a pull back any second .. then when it still looked strong I bought again .. right at the top as it turned out . one hour later I got out with a few points .. I should write a book ..How not to trade

You have just been given a lesson from someone with greater knowledge than you, the word you are looking for is

THANK YOU

If you want to make a start on your chart reading skills you would do worse than have a look at the locations mentioned in Firewalkers post without your Stochalistic thingy bobs on the chart

 

[black bear]

Trouble is I don't have the experience yet to read the chart with any certainty (will I ever), so every trade is click and pray

I thought the DOW was horrible this week .. down from Monday night till today then boom .. I believed the consolidation hypothesis but it just took so damn long I wonder how many longs were stopped out this week ..

today I traded over the data .. got sucked into a long(well I've had a bad week I thought I might as well go out with a bang) .. but I cut it too soon expecting a pull back any second .. then when it still looked strong I bought again .. right at the top as it turned out . one hour later I got out with a few points .. I should write a book ..How not to trade

instead of gambling whether or not this is the top... look at what the chart is telling you

YM was very predictable in terms of balancing & trending this week imho. Today's high is give or take 10 points off Monday's high, which would've made for a perfect exit for longs. And if you insist on going against the trend, a possible short entry...

Great post Firewalker99 , Shortorlong mmmmmm you should know , or how do you know where your wrong Shortorlong

I must be missing something :?: I thought we traded TA , not some number or news report talked about by some bloomberg talkin head chap. It dont matter what the news is , what the market thinks of the news is what is important :!: oh ye and when they are going to announce it thats important or one could end up

 

[black bear]

Trouble is I don't have the experience yet to read the chart with any certainty (will I ever), so every trade is click and pray

I thought the DOW was horrible this week .. down from Monday night till today then boom .. I believed the consolidation hypothesis but it just took so damn long I wonder how many longs were stopped out this week ..

today I traded over the data .. got sucked into a long(well I've had a bad week I thought I might as well go out with a bang) .. but I cut it too soon expecting a pull back any second .. then when it still looked strong I bought again .. right at the top as it turned out . one hour later I got out with a few points .. I should write a book ..How not to trade

Hi , Sorry about your bad week and above posts were a knee jerk reaction to what I read and not very constructive .

I am told and welcome any input on this one :?:
without knockin thread off track or into next week etc

A trader will see tops or bottoms or the trend depending on their genes

I know I see all the tops and bottoms first and Trend 2nd and can"t understand how any one can miss Tops bottoms, just the way we are built I guess :?: hinders running profitable positions though.

Thank you again Split and IAN for advice on this one last week, I trade contray quite often, Not a problem as long as the trader knows he or she is the wrong way round IMO depending on your objectives.

Stoch readings and the like that give a sell in long market conditions should, well be mistrusted. I would suggest you read up on all to do with chosen instument before taking signals of it if you must use them.

Stopped out ?

Dow was above last weeks high, Longs had good ref point, 3 narrow range days and pop out with the previous days high, Cont of trend signal for Ganny / Drivailand traders and text book to boot any body who bought that which showed Strength on friday at previous days high had a nice low risk trade set up IMO.

It was not that hard to stay Long in the market IMO.

Any way hope that helps a bit and is a bit more constructive.

 

[shortorlong]

Hi , Sorry about your bad week and above posts were a knee jerk reaction to what I read and not very constructive .

I am told and welcome any input on this one :?:
without knockin thread off track or into next week etc

A trader will see tops or bottoms or the trend depending on their genes

I know I see all the tops and bottoms first and Trend 2nd and can"t understand how any one can miss Tops bottoms, just the way we are built I guess :?: hinders running profitable positions though.

Thank you again Split and IAN for advice on this one last week, I trade contray quite often, Not a problem as long as the trader knows he or she is the wrong way round IMO depending on your objectives.

Stoch readings and the like that give a sell in long market conditions should, well be mistrusted. I would suggest you read up on all to do with chosen instument before taking signals of it if you must use them.

Stopped out ?

Dow was above last weeks high, Longs had good ref point, 3 narrow range days and pop out with the previous days high, Cont of trend signal for Ganny / Drivailand traders and text book to boot any body who bought that which showed Strength on friday at previous days high had a nice low risk trade set up IMO.

It was not that hard to stay Long in the market IMO.

Any way hope that helps a bit and is a bit more constructive.

hey! kick a guy when he's down why don't ya
only joking .. I appreciate all comments , your earlier ragging was useful anyway as it reminded me to appreciate those pearls of wisdom that Firewalker et al sometimes drop onto the board ...

more please

 

[black bear]

hey! kick a guy when he's down why don't ya
only joking .. I appreciate all comments , your earlier ragging was useful anyway as it reminded me to appreciate those pearls of wisdom that Firewalker et al sometimes drop onto the board ...

more please

No more kicking honest , just go on one from time to time , fell free to rip me up anytime and better luck next week ShortorLong.

What is it Short or Long next week, you were a great indicator last week mate, perhaps you"d consider a few posts over on the EOD Dow thread so the lads can get on early with a bit of size.

Sorry to drone on,

I just cast my mind back a year to when I had a few err"rrr poor weeks trading, I was so wrong I was right :idea:

I sat down and worked out why, and from then on I improved

Trade well and safe

 

[senyorqueso]

Anyone got the cojones to short this? If so, hope you're not too attached to them

Quite frightening targets could be in sight.

 

[counter_violent]

Anyone got the cojones to short this? If so, hope you're not too attached to them

Quite frightening targets could be in sight.

I fancy 16,000+ ....no takers on here though ....although Firewalker may be persuaded ....thing is...as Atilla pointed out....when/if everyone comes over to the long side....it's probably time to short

 

[senyorqueso]

I fancy 16,000+ ....no takers on here though ....although Firewalker may be persuaded ....thing is...as Atilla pointed out....when/if everyone comes over to the long side....it's probably time to short

Indeed - 16k is a lot of points away - I wonder how many weeks away though...

 

[Atilla]

Indeed - 16k is a lot of points away - I wonder how many weeks away though...

You are looking at end of year when pension fund managers will be looking to raise their bonuses by raising their portfolio valuations by screwing around with little ol pensioners monies purchasing grossly over-valued shares.

It will then tank in January or February - a little earlier than it did this year...

 

[counter_violent]

Indeed - 16k is a lot of points away - I wonder how many weeks away though...

Exactly....the markets are indeed setting up for the ultimate exhaustion blow off.....why then can so few see this shape?.....that is the question !!

 

[Atilla]

Exactly....the markets are indeed setting up for the ultimate exhaustion blow off.....why then can so few see this shape?.....that is the question !!

Upside is limited imo. Downside greater.

Somepeople like to keep their feet on the ground.

I can see an upside break out on the weeklies but too chicken to take the long shot. Maybe for quick scalps but even then errr...

 

[counter_violent]

Upside is limited imo. Downside greater.


Somepeople like to keep their feet on the ground.

I can see an upside break out on the weeklies but too chicken to take the long shot. Maybe for quick scalps but even then errr...

I've posted this previously but worth dragging it out once again.

 

[black bear]

You are looking at end of year when pension fund managers will be looking to raise their bonuses by raising their portfolio valuations by screwing around with little ol pensioners monies purchasing grossly over-valued shares.

It will then tank in January or February - a little earlier than it did this year...

Exactly....the markets are indeed setting up for the ultimate exhaustion blow off.....why then can so few see this shape?.....that is the question !!

Indeed - 16k is a lot of points away - I wonder how many weeks away though...

Atilla , Nice insight, New Year Tank, sounds very nice well they like to adjust their Portfolio early in the New Year at best price.

Counter Violent, I just looked at Dow 30 yr in months, nothing else on chart, I see BULL, the crash from Jan 2000 Top , well looks like , e"rrrrrrr like a flag.

Breakout of the decending trend line Oct 03.

I was of the same opinion as yourself since the huge bounce Mar 07, it looked Parabolic to me to, it was gravity defying every other close was outside the Bollingers.

I shorted every week without fail, traded my opinion to death, danced the top of the week charts. Sounds bad but that was all I traded, that was my plan
I grabbed a bit where I could on the overlaps and ended up at - 100 pts, which I considered money well spent I learnt loads.

I stopped 3 weeks before the 12000 pt drop my entry method and exit etc would have kept me in the move to the bottom (within 150 pts) with at least one add to position.

I have an excuse for missin the move, I had to go to do some full time work , I wonder why :?:

I look back in hindsight and I can"t believe I got out for -100 pts, what a result I did learn loads for having such a fixed opinion, I would not have missed it for the world , Suppose it proves you can stand in front of Trains and live, but I don"t think there is any money in it

My Opinion today, honest I don"t have one , I no nothing :|

I would agree a Top could be forming and we could have some sharp moves UP or Down in the weekly timeframe I am not going to be daft enough to call it, I for one will just notice that one day the Index is trading under its monthly 12 sma and that could mean we may be in a BEAR :|

Senyorqueso, Just keep your trailer tight, but not to tight it might go 18 K

I am sure that when this Bull party ends there will be plenty of downside for everyone even those late to the party.

 

[Atilla]

I've posted this previously but worth dragging it out once again.

Thanks CV. I've looked up the Parabolic on Bulkowski's chart patterns and they are not there but nearest chart pattern is Scallops - Ascending...

Apparently there is a 31% average rise with %32 pullback.

There may be 58% chance of a throwback.

The other info doesn't bode well though as he summarises by "Perhaps the only redeeming quality of ascending scallops (parabolics) is their ability to predict the end of a trend - similar to what you point out.

This may be a DNA-gene attribute of mine once again - focusing on the down side again but fwiw this kind of high volatility doesn't go well with my daily trading pattern of looking at screen three times a day.

Oscar's enthusiasm for SL come to mind coupled with leaving emotions out.

 

[lurkerlurker]

I fancy a 1pp SB long on the front month, left unattended until expiry with a 500 point stop.

 

[black bear]

I fancy a 1pp SB long on the front month, left unattended until expiry with a 500 point stop.

Hi Lurker,

Thats good, I"m not concerned anymore, its always a good sign when the patient gets their sense of humour back

H Ford was happy @ $1 per car off the production line clear, don"t no what that equates to today but I"m sure you will be able to tell me :?:

Sounds like a good start to a Position to me ,

Count me in,

Just registered with Fins so I can cut me risk down a bit 10p per pt will do me for starters if thats OK, don"t want to get a sweat on 1st time playing with the BIG BOYS do I.

 

[fibonelli]

I may be misunderstanding you here Fibo, but Government employees are not included in NFP.

"..........The reason cited for the reversal in the department's August hiring estimate was the government underestimated the hiring of teachers to start a new school year.

STRAINS CONTINUE

The bulk of the gains in September hiring came in service industries, including an addition of 44,000 in education and health services and 37,000 in the government. In the goods-producing sector, 18,000 factory jobs were shed and 14,000 construction jobs were lost................"
http://www.reuters.com/article/topNews/idUSN0445931620071005?pageNumber=2

 

[Atilla]

Good evening,

I'm 50/50 this week. No idea basically. Here is a long view chart. Although we have made highs, MACD is diverging and we are at the upper regions of this uptrend. Last weeks gains were on low volume.

How much further does it have to go before it cools off?

Unless the markets turn down I hope to be sitting out most of this week.

Good trading everyone...

 

[Hook Shot]

Curious

Dow now 70pts off friday's high and other indices and fx markets are okay...

now 052 mid cash

 

[firewalker99]

any positions?

I am - not surprisingly - long from the opening but, unfortunately for me... price is just sitting there at the moment :|

Oh well... patience is a virtue!