firewalker99
Legendary member
- Messages
- 6,655
- Likes
- 612
errr... what short are you refering to?
I just entered a short on that spike 13480 ~ 13440 cash
this is the reason why I have been keen on the longs. not geting the timing right though.
up channel (yellow) in progress. yesterday broke out to the upside.
up channel (white) steeper.
failure to touch the upper end of yellow channel, will mean a short. no 2 ways.
anyways, my 2 p.
good evening chaps.
up channel (yellow) in progress. yesterday broke out to the upside.
up channel (white) steeper.
failure to touch the upper end of yellow channel, will mean a short. no 2 ways.
anyways, my 2 p.
good evening chaps.
Attachments
firewalker99
Legendary member
- Messages
- 6,655
- Likes
- 612
lurker, don't get your head down, we've all been through this
and you need to keep working hard on improving yourself and looking where you are going wrong. You already made a step in the right direction (imho) by opening a journal.
Look at Dinos and Atilla's posts and I can add to those that I've (unfortunately) wiped out my account too before starting to become profitable... studying charts and looking following price movements for 16 hours a day (on several instruments) until my eyes bled.
And I still make stupid mistakes (like this last short
)
firewalker99
Legendary member
- Messages
- 6,655
- Likes
- 612
hmm mine was at 40 cash... stopped out though
Edit: as this being a countertrend trade, I should have taken the +10 I had (scalp)... it felt like a risky trade all along
Last edited:
firewalker99
Legendary member
- Messages
- 6,655
- Likes
- 612
No worries, quick question, what markets do you trade next to DOW?
hobby
Active member
- Messages
- 146
- Likes
- 10
The IBEX has caught my eye over the past fortnight (I started investigating it when the big property related companies got caned)...i know bo diddly about the Spanish economy other than it's hellish dependent on construction & the real estate market. to my eye, the IBEX still seems very toppy bearing in mind its exposure to a flakey sector with a bleak outlook!
The intra day swings are quite astonishing which makes it an excellent day trader's indice!
interesting article about the Spanish economy in today's telegraph...
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2007/05/16/cnspain16.xml
Dinos
Veteren member
- Messages
- 4,113
- Likes
- 714
Might have something to do with it, not really major news though
:-
Deere Profit Declines 16%; Shares Drop on Forecast (Update6)
By Will Daley
May 16 (Bloomberg) -- Deere & Co., the world's largest maker of farm equipment, said second-quarter profit fell 16 percent and forecast third-quarter earnings that trailed analysts' estimates.
Net income declined to $623.6 million, or $2.72 a share, from $744.6 million, or $3.13, a year earlier. Revenue grew 4.9 percent to $6.88 billion, the Moline, Illinois-based company said Deere said in a statement.
:-
Deere Profit Declines 16%; Shares Drop on Forecast (Update6)
By Will Daley
May 16 (Bloomberg) -- Deere & Co., the world's largest maker of farm equipment, said second-quarter profit fell 16 percent and forecast third-quarter earnings that trailed analysts' estimates.
Net income declined to $623.6 million, or $2.72 a share, from $744.6 million, or $3.13, a year earlier. Revenue grew 4.9 percent to $6.88 billion, the Moline, Illinois-based company said Deere said in a statement.
firewalker99
Legendary member
- Messages
- 6,655
- Likes
- 612
new highs
dow looking to finish with yet again new highs... pretty impressive, especially considering it's leaving all other markets behind... far behind... intraday run up from the lows is a +100. Nice one!
Big money to be made today with these big swings.
Let's see if we can push some new highs tomorrow.
See you all later have a good night.
dow looking to finish with yet again new highs... pretty impressive, especially considering it's leaving all other markets behind... far behind... intraday run up from the lows is a +100. Nice one!
Big money to be made today with these big swings.
Let's see if we can push some new highs tomorrow.
See you all later have a good night.
frugi
1
- Messages
- 1,843
- Likes
- 133
A day on which simple TA acted almost scientifically, like some text books con one into believing it should. Two heads and shoulders which actually worked no less - quelle surprise! Nasty games to mess it up seemed mostly absent, bar one false breakout before the real one. In fact despite the points on offer, a generally slow day, no extreme moves, tick staying in a flatter range than yesterday, a real creep up in the afternoon. Good for placid study. Anyway thought I'd share a few of the obvious bits, sorry if anyone finds it patronising. Reviewing charts in public often helps me spot something I didn't during the day.
Several possible entries based entirely on price:
1. short the 61.8 retrace in the morning. this was also the overnight high. It was a bit mean of YM to take out a few stops by making a small HH after the double top, but cash needed those few extra points to hit its 61.8. Also breadth divergence offered its usual warning. reverse to long if this fails as the 61.8% is often the bears' last point of control. downside break of the first hour's tight range another possible entry/confirmation.
could cover this at pivot and gap fill.
2. best trade probably long the simple double bottom that coincided with a trendline on the 10 min. there was a baby tick divergence there too. if you didn't fancy that then perhaps the mini inv H&S bottom breakout.
could scale out of this at pivot, the inv H&S target, 38/50/62 fib levels (not marked), vwap, the meeting of two trendlines around 17:00. Reverse here if brave?
3. long the 50% retrace to the pivot point around 17:40. bear in mind there's been a big wave 1 that has exceeded 61.8% of the prior down move, followed by a 50% pullback, so i am feeling bullish & looking for continued upside with a wave 3 at least 61.8% or 100% of wave 1. if the long failed here then would be looking for the 61.8% or a test of the lows, though uncomfortable with the 61.8% being below pivot reduce size or see if it bounces back above pivot first.
4. buying one tick above the top of that little hammer at 18:28 for a Ross Hook TTE play, following the second penetration of the long down trend line. of course you don't always get a nice little pullback like this but i'd rather miss a big breakout than use a wide stop or get fooled by a false one. the big inverse H&S is now visible and its neck bleeding which adds confidence.
5. long at 4 around 20:15 on the little double bottom / 50 ema (equiv. to 20 ema on a 5 min, often a decision point in a trend). moves are often 5 waves up so looking for similar size to 1 & 3 though time running out. R1 orange line a good exit point, or yesterday's high, a few points shy. note how none of the pullbacks exceed wave 2, a good sign trend is intact until they do.
or one could take another ross hook pullback entry after the BO of the little consolidation, but we hadn't broken the high set at 3 yet so i probably wouldn't have. would rather long the bottom of the range so that if there is no upside BO at least one has a headstart to cover costs.
i didn't trade all of these or indeed nearly this well by the way, but these types of entries usually offer good R:R and I find it useful to point to a few potentials at the end of a day. note all of these levels could be acted upon in real time with a tight stop. sorry no mention of volume .. to be honest i didn't find it terribly useful today though it generally confirmed the impulsive moves; also there were a couple of nice moments before the 18:00 breakout when on the tape it looked like large longs were being built up. easy to say in hindsight of course.
for tomorrow i'll probably be looking for shorts from a higher level or failure rather than longs on a breakout. there are a few fib targets and a channel top clustered above ES 1520 which make me wary of longing a break of it. will keep an eye on the top of the 10 min channel if we get there. impending options expiry may cause some unexpected tomfoolery.
Several possible entries based entirely on price:
1. short the 61.8 retrace in the morning. this was also the overnight high. It was a bit mean of YM to take out a few stops by making a small HH after the double top, but cash needed those few extra points to hit its 61.8. Also breadth divergence offered its usual warning. reverse to long if this fails as the 61.8% is often the bears' last point of control. downside break of the first hour's tight range another possible entry/confirmation.
could cover this at pivot and gap fill.
2. best trade probably long the simple double bottom that coincided with a trendline on the 10 min. there was a baby tick divergence there too. if you didn't fancy that then perhaps the mini inv H&S bottom breakout.
could scale out of this at pivot, the inv H&S target, 38/50/62 fib levels (not marked), vwap, the meeting of two trendlines around 17:00. Reverse here if brave?
3. long the 50% retrace to the pivot point around 17:40. bear in mind there's been a big wave 1 that has exceeded 61.8% of the prior down move, followed by a 50% pullback, so i am feeling bullish & looking for continued upside with a wave 3 at least 61.8% or 100% of wave 1. if the long failed here then would be looking for the 61.8% or a test of the lows, though uncomfortable with the 61.8% being below pivot reduce size or see if it bounces back above pivot first.
4. buying one tick above the top of that little hammer at 18:28 for a Ross Hook TTE play, following the second penetration of the long down trend line. of course you don't always get a nice little pullback like this but i'd rather miss a big breakout than use a wide stop or get fooled by a false one. the big inverse H&S is now visible and its neck bleeding which adds confidence.
5. long at 4 around 20:15 on the little double bottom / 50 ema (equiv. to 20 ema on a 5 min, often a decision point in a trend). moves are often 5 waves up so looking for similar size to 1 & 3 though time running out. R1 orange line a good exit point, or yesterday's high, a few points shy. note how none of the pullbacks exceed wave 2, a good sign trend is intact until they do.
or one could take another ross hook pullback entry after the BO of the little consolidation, but we hadn't broken the high set at 3 yet so i probably wouldn't have. would rather long the bottom of the range so that if there is no upside BO at least one has a headstart to cover costs.
i didn't trade all of these or indeed nearly this well by the way, but these types of entries usually offer good R:R and I find it useful to point to a few potentials at the end of a day. note all of these levels could be acted upon in real time with a tight stop. sorry no mention of volume .. to be honest i didn't find it terribly useful today though it generally confirmed the impulsive moves; also there were a couple of nice moments before the 18:00 breakout when on the tape it looked like large longs were being built up. easy to say in hindsight of course.
for tomorrow i'll probably be looking for shorts from a higher level or failure rather than longs on a breakout. there are a few fib targets and a channel top clustered above ES 1520 which make me wary of longing a break of it. will keep an eye on the top of the 10 min channel if we get there. impending options expiry may cause some unexpected tomfoolery.
Attachments
Last edited:
hobby
Active member
- Messages
- 146
- Likes
- 10
5th day or 7th day pullback for the Dow...??
http://www.askthetrader.com/freetradingvideos/willthedowstop/willthedowstop.html
my inkling is day 7 (day 5 is today), purely on the basis that the S&P probably wants to challenge its all time highs [edit: to remove erroneous comment - doh] which will probably drag the Dow up a little.
http://www.askthetrader.com/freetradingvideos/willthedowstop/willthedowstop.html
my inkling is day 7 (day 5 is today), purely on the basis that the S&P probably wants to challenge its all time highs [edit: to remove erroneous comment - doh] which will probably drag the Dow up a little.
