Dow 2007

Pattern of Trend

Hook Shot said:
now 220 and almost 150pts to climb today to escape the ravenous bears .....

Looks pretty sad..... but if they make an attempt to out run the bears it should be spectacular.....and plenty of time left...

Incidentally, I'm taking 262 as our failed attack on the 367/8 summit ... but aware of the other side.......
Click to expand...

Road Map working nicely and hardly any surprises..... I owe it all to Bill McLaren.... and his "pattern of trends"... http://www.mclarenreport.com.au

Newbies might want to print of his FREE CNBC reports say for 2007(one month at a time ?) and read them for free or you can buy one of his CD's.
 
Hook Shot said:
Road Map working nicely and hardly any surprises..... I owe it all to Bill McLaren.... and his "pattern of trends"... http://www.mclarenreport.com.au

Newbies might want to print of his FREE CNBC reports say for 2007 and read them for free or you can buy one of his CD's.
Click to expand...

I sincerely submit that I think 2007 hasn't been his best year, his timing was a bit off at first... Nevertheless agree that he often makes for an interesting read. His "overall" picture is usually pretty spot on. Be interesting to hear what he has to say about the bear market :devilish: earlier on he called 2008 to be bullish...
 
im not greedy :p will assess at 3400 :p

to be honest, i dont know who is your broker, i never got a price below 3117, so dont know how you got in at 3100 on the futures :confused:

my entry long is cancelled therefore
 
kenobi said:
im not greedy :p will assess at 3400 :p

to be honest, i dont know who is your broker, i never got a price below 3117, so dont know how you got in at 3100 on the futures :confused:

my entry long is cancelled therefore
Click to expand...

I bought the futures at the moment cash was around 13100. That equals 13125 futures. sorry if I confused you
 
order cancelled. wait till tomorrow for new price.

my entries are based on fibs. a confluence of fibs of different assets. Once they hit 50%, then first break of 5% (i.e. 45 or 55) signals trade :p. entries based on similar behaviour depending on an astrological clock :p
 
kenobi said:
order cancelled. wait till tomorrow for new price.

my entries are based on fibs. a confluence of fibs of different assets. Once they hit 50%, then first break of 5% (i.e. 45 or 55) signals trade :p. entries based on similar behaviour depending on an astrological clock :p
Click to expand...

Personally, I think it's a wise decision to wait until tomorrow.
Anything can happen while you are sleeping/dreaming :)


goodnight everybody, thanks for watching :p
 
If 13500 (c) gets rejected as it seems to have done so far I reckon the H&S will kick in to play and this will tank to 12750 regions. :rolleyes:
 

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Atilla said:
If 13500 (c) gets rejected as it seems to have done so far I reckon the H&S will kick in to play and this will tank to 12750 regions. :rolleyes:
Click to expand...

I agree with that 12750 target m8...In fact the chart is looking sick...the ABC down incidently also gives a 12750 target if the lows of this week are taken out....not wanting to sound too bearish and will take each day as it comes,but 11800 is coming into play and even further down at 10800...bulls really need to break this downtrend which has developed off the highs and has stalled any rally attempt...there could be 2500 pts of downside coming up !!.......Hope I'm wrong but as I said the other night that May 06 breakout area has never been tested...
 
Atilla said:
If 13500 (c) gets rejected as it seems to have done so far I reckon the H&S will kick in to play and this will tank to 12750 regions. :rolleyes:
Click to expand...

seems like a good plan....:cool:

was looking at similar level (12800 ish) for next target..before a mid term tradeable rally..

will be in "sunny" UK if/when that happens!
 
Because of the possibility posted above I've bought Dax puts.Dax has held up longer than the US and if above scenario plays out should catch up....bought shedloads of 6700 puts for January....:(
 
2468steve said:
Because of the possibility posted above I've bought Dax puts.Dax has held up longer than the US and if above scenario plays out should catch up....bought shedloads of 6700 puts for January....:(
Click to expand...

What price did you pay for them? Pretty ballsy move IMHO, but all the best with that. What makes you think there will be that much of a drop in 10 weeks?
 
Hi LL,
bought on the spreads @ 33 ...I'm off to Africa next week for a month so won't be able to trade and feel a big move down is possible....If it does happen don't wanna miss it,so options were really the only way I could benefit without losing my shirt if we do in fact go higher.....
Don't forget tomorrows TICS data.Will give a big heads up on inflows/outflows of capital...I'm hoping that may be the catalyst for this down move...

cheers
 
Bill McLaren

firewalker99 said:
I sincerely submit that I think 2007 hasn't been his best year, his timing was a bit off at first... Nevertheless agree that he often makes for an interesting read. His "overall" picture is usually pretty spot on. Be interesting to hear what he has to say about the bear market :devilish: earlier on he called 2008 to be bullish...
Click to expand...

My particular comment referred to his understanding of trends.... what he calls his "pattern of trend". He's pretty hot in that area. His range division to ascertain potential price targets is also pretty good.
 
Road Map - reloaded

We now have a one day counter trend on the charts which is not the most bullish development... The macro boys will be looking for a continuation of the fast move down with a test of ... and likely break of this weeks lows.

On the flip side the bulls are getting a hammering with dow on track to close below its 200ma for the second week running ....... So I would imagine they will put up a struggle..... The low risk**/opportunistic option near term would be to try and get long on a positive test of thurs low - but unless we take out 262 we are still in the bears' back pocket ..... or " we are still wriggling in the clutches of the grizzly bear" for those who like a bit of delightful imagery :cool:

Note** - low risk if we put stop around thurs low..

I still have bearish bias due to "pattern of trend" but I'm not blind to an opportunistic rally intraday Friday.....if the rally fails - as I expect- then I'll take rally profits and reload on the short side...

Failure here (initially) means failure to exceed 262.... Dow now 130 as I go for my morning splash....:D

Good Luck and Have Fun

Hs

Ps As others have mentioned downside targets .....I'll have a go.. The simple ones are ~12800 the old high and ~12500 the august low (with ~12450 the 25% retrace of the 5yr bull market).......
 
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One of the reasons I keep coming back....

2468steve said:
Hi HS,
just had a look at FNM.....appears to be on it's way to $45...which is summer 06 lows ..:LOL:

53.91 needs to break today to confirm on the weekly
Click to expand...
FNM finally hit and broke $45 yesterday ... got to $42 in the end....
That's 1200 pts in 2wks from one trade in case anyone gives a ****

I made one of my random comments a while back about dow being over-rated and this is the sort of situation I had in made.....nice clear trend where you sell failed rallies and voila... No yesterday's 10% snap did not benefit me.... but I made a few large tons out of it ...Bradmanesque (Lara-esque does not have quite the same ring ...:LOL: )

Fantastic work steve we'll miss you mate ....you're a real asset to the thread/site :D

Edit: Cheers all the others who have helped me to bring my retirement that little bit closer :)
 
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